COLLEGE
2 Star Selection
FAIRFIELD (-10 points or less) 76 Iona 59
19-Feb-04 04:30 PM Pacific Time
Fairfield has been without their best two players for 7 straight games, but the Stags have actually played considerably better without leading scorer Terrance Todd and leading rebounder and second leading scorer Deng Gai. Fairfield is on an 8-1 ATS run and they qualify in a solid 70-36-3 ATS home momentum situation if they are favored by 10 points or less. Iona, meanwhile, is on an 0-5 ATS run and they have lost 2 of their top 4 players in recent weeks. Forward Steve Smith (10.6 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 50% FG) has missed the last 7 games and leading scorer DeShaun Williams (14.8 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 3.0 apg) was suspended for the rest of the season and has missed the last 2 games. My ratings, adjusting for the player losses on both teams, favor Fairfield by 12 ? points in this game and I have no problem laying 10 points or less with the Stags and I?ll make them a 3-Star if they are favored by 8 points or less.
Upgrade Fairfield to a 3-Star Best Bet if they are favored by 8 points or less.
3 Star Selection
NEW ORLEANS (-10 points or less) 77 South Alabama 60
19-Feb-04 05:00 PM Pacific Time
South Alabama has been dismal over the past month, losing all 7 games against Division 1 opposition while going winless against the spread in those games. New Orleans, meanwhile, has gone 11-4 ATS in their last 15 lined games and is coming off an easy 68-54 win over conference leading Louisiana Lafayette. I expect those recent trends to continue tonight as the Privateers apply to a 79-27-2 ATS home momentum situation as long as they?re favored by 10 points or less. My ratings favor New Orleans by 10 points in this game, so we have some line value to go along with the good situation, and I?ll lay 10 or less with the Privateers and make them a 3-Star Best Bet at -8 points or less.
Downgrade New Orleans to a 2-Star Best Bet if they are favored by more than 8 points.
3 Star Selection
Tennessee State (+19 points or more) 71 MURRAY STATE 83
19-Feb-04 05:15 PM Pacific Time
Tennessee State is perhaps the most improved team in the nation, as I rate them 13 points better this season than in last year?s horrific 2- 25 campaign. First year coach Cy Alexander has his team playing hard but the public still has trouble pulling the trigger on the Tigers based on last year?s memory of how bad they were. That has led to plenty of line value in favor the Tennessee State this season and the Tigers are 15-5 ATS (15-4 ATS with leading scorer Bruce Price in the lineup). Tennessee State lost by just 6 points as a 14 point home underdog to conference leader Murray State earlier this season and the Tigers qualify in a couple of very good big road underdog revenge situations ? a 91-36-2 ATS revenge momentum situation and a more general 112-56-6 ATS situation. The record is 22-4 ATS when both of those angles apply to the same game and my ratings favor Murray State by 20 points in this game, so the line still hasn?t caught up to how improved the Tigers are this season. I?ll take 19 points or more with Tennessee State in a Best Bet and I?ll make them a 3-Star Best Bet at +20 points or more.
Downgrade Tennessee State to a 2-Star Best Bet if they are an underdog of less than 20 points.
2 Star Selection
Cal Riverside (+17 points or more) 59 UTAH STATE 69
19-Feb-04 07:00 PM Pacific Time
Riverside lost by just 4 points to conference leader Utah State (20-2 straight up) a few weeks ago and their 2 game win streak ought to give them added confidence heading into tonight?s rematch. Riverside qualifies in a solid 112-56-6 ATS big road underdog revenge situation that won twice for me last night (Indiana State and Portland) and the Highlanders also qualify in a 99-41-3 ATS big road underdog momentum situation that is 33-6 ATS if that team has revenge. Utah State is 82- 64-4 ATS in all games under coach Stew Morrill, but the Aggies are only 14-17-1 ATS in second meetings against teams they beat earlier in the season, so they tend to relax in that situation. I realize that Utah State is coming off a loss, but they are just 14-14-1 ATS after a loss under Morrill, including 2-6 ATS against a revenging team, so that setback at Pacific is not a factor tonight. My ratings favor Utah State by 18 ? points in this game, but the situation is strong enough to give up some line value and I?ll take Riverside at +17 points or more in a 2-Star Best Bet.
Upgrade Riverside to a 3-Star Best Bet if they are an underdog of 18 points or more.
2 Star Selection
FAIRFIELD (-10 points or less) 76 Iona 59
19-Feb-04 04:30 PM Pacific Time
Fairfield has been without their best two players for 7 straight games, but the Stags have actually played considerably better without leading scorer Terrance Todd and leading rebounder and second leading scorer Deng Gai. Fairfield is on an 8-1 ATS run and they qualify in a solid 70-36-3 ATS home momentum situation if they are favored by 10 points or less. Iona, meanwhile, is on an 0-5 ATS run and they have lost 2 of their top 4 players in recent weeks. Forward Steve Smith (10.6 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 50% FG) has missed the last 7 games and leading scorer DeShaun Williams (14.8 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 3.0 apg) was suspended for the rest of the season and has missed the last 2 games. My ratings, adjusting for the player losses on both teams, favor Fairfield by 12 ? points in this game and I have no problem laying 10 points or less with the Stags and I?ll make them a 3-Star if they are favored by 8 points or less.
Upgrade Fairfield to a 3-Star Best Bet if they are favored by 8 points or less.
3 Star Selection
NEW ORLEANS (-10 points or less) 77 South Alabama 60
19-Feb-04 05:00 PM Pacific Time
South Alabama has been dismal over the past month, losing all 7 games against Division 1 opposition while going winless against the spread in those games. New Orleans, meanwhile, has gone 11-4 ATS in their last 15 lined games and is coming off an easy 68-54 win over conference leading Louisiana Lafayette. I expect those recent trends to continue tonight as the Privateers apply to a 79-27-2 ATS home momentum situation as long as they?re favored by 10 points or less. My ratings favor New Orleans by 10 points in this game, so we have some line value to go along with the good situation, and I?ll lay 10 or less with the Privateers and make them a 3-Star Best Bet at -8 points or less.
Downgrade New Orleans to a 2-Star Best Bet if they are favored by more than 8 points.
3 Star Selection
Tennessee State (+19 points or more) 71 MURRAY STATE 83
19-Feb-04 05:15 PM Pacific Time
Tennessee State is perhaps the most improved team in the nation, as I rate them 13 points better this season than in last year?s horrific 2- 25 campaign. First year coach Cy Alexander has his team playing hard but the public still has trouble pulling the trigger on the Tigers based on last year?s memory of how bad they were. That has led to plenty of line value in favor the Tennessee State this season and the Tigers are 15-5 ATS (15-4 ATS with leading scorer Bruce Price in the lineup). Tennessee State lost by just 6 points as a 14 point home underdog to conference leader Murray State earlier this season and the Tigers qualify in a couple of very good big road underdog revenge situations ? a 91-36-2 ATS revenge momentum situation and a more general 112-56-6 ATS situation. The record is 22-4 ATS when both of those angles apply to the same game and my ratings favor Murray State by 20 points in this game, so the line still hasn?t caught up to how improved the Tigers are this season. I?ll take 19 points or more with Tennessee State in a Best Bet and I?ll make them a 3-Star Best Bet at +20 points or more.
Downgrade Tennessee State to a 2-Star Best Bet if they are an underdog of less than 20 points.
2 Star Selection
Cal Riverside (+17 points or more) 59 UTAH STATE 69
19-Feb-04 07:00 PM Pacific Time
Riverside lost by just 4 points to conference leader Utah State (20-2 straight up) a few weeks ago and their 2 game win streak ought to give them added confidence heading into tonight?s rematch. Riverside qualifies in a solid 112-56-6 ATS big road underdog revenge situation that won twice for me last night (Indiana State and Portland) and the Highlanders also qualify in a 99-41-3 ATS big road underdog momentum situation that is 33-6 ATS if that team has revenge. Utah State is 82- 64-4 ATS in all games under coach Stew Morrill, but the Aggies are only 14-17-1 ATS in second meetings against teams they beat earlier in the season, so they tend to relax in that situation. I realize that Utah State is coming off a loss, but they are just 14-14-1 ATS after a loss under Morrill, including 2-6 ATS against a revenging team, so that setback at Pacific is not a factor tonight. My ratings favor Utah State by 18 ? points in this game, but the situation is strong enough to give up some line value and I?ll take Riverside at +17 points or more in a 2-Star Best Bet.
Upgrade Riverside to a 3-Star Best Bet if they are an underdog of 18 points or more.
