2 Star Selection
PORTLAND (-10 points or less) 106 Chicago 89
Chicago is now 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games after suffering yet another double-digit loss last night in Oakland. The Bulls qualify in the same negative 35-89-2 ATS situation that they applied in last night and Portland?s 3 road wins sets them up in a positive 76-39-4 ATS home favorite momentum situation. However, my ratings favor Portland by just 8 ? points in this game and I?m not willing to give up too much line value to make them a Best Bet. With the situations included the Blazers have a solid 58% chance of covering as a 10 point favorite, which is the number at which I?ll make them a 2-Star Best Bet. However, I?ll consider Portland just a Strong Opinion if they remain favored by more than 10 points.
COLLEGE
3 Star Selection
Western Kentucky 83 FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL 61
Florida International lost their best player after 6 games this season and they are just 1-13 straight up in their last 14 games with 9 of their last 13 games being by double-digit margins. I?ve done very well going against Florida International when they?ve been at home and they are now 13-32-2 ATS at home in their history in Division 1, including 0-14-1 ATS recently (0-5 ATS this season). The Panthers also apply to a negative 21-71-1 ATS weak home court situation tonight and my ratings favor the Hilltoppers by 14 points. Western Kentucky has played just one bad team on the road, in Fordham, and they beat the Rams by 24 points in that game, so they are certainly capable of winning big here. The Hilltoppers? major weakness is their poor perimeter defense, as they allow 21 3-point attempts per game at 39% success. However, Florida International is among the worst 3-point shooting teams in the nation at just 28%, so it?s doubtful that they?ll be able to take advantage of the open looks they get from beyond the arc.
Downgrade Western Kentucky to a 2-Star Best Bet if they are favored by more than 12 points.
2 Star Selection
Cornell (-8 points or less) 74 DARTMOUTH 59
31-Jan-04 04:00 PM Pacific Time
Cornell, with a perfect 3-0 league record, has established themselves as one of the Ivy League?s better teams, while Dartmouth?s 42-78 loss last night to Columbia as a 5 point favorite relegates the Big Green as one of the Ivy?s worst teams. My ratings favor Cornell by 9 ? points in this game and Dartmouth has no home court edge in this game, as they are just 32-55-1 ATS at home in 14 seasons under coach Faucher, including just 12-37 ATS more recently. Cornell, meanwhile, is 24-10-1 ATS on the road in 4 seasons under coach Donahue, including 4-0 ATS this season and 10-1 ATS when visiting a team with a win percentage of under .400.
2 Star Selection
TENN CHATTANOOGA (-3 points or less) 88 Georgia Southern 78
31-Jan-04 04:00 PM Pacific Time
Georgia Southern has won 11 straight games, but they were favored to win all of those games and now have to battle a team that is capable of beating them. Chattanooga played below expectations early in the season, but they?ve covered the spread in 4 straight contests and qualify in a very strong 56-16-2 ATS home momentum situation tonight. My ratings using games for the entire season favor Chattanooga by just one point, but -3 would be a fair line if I used conference games only. I?ll lay 3 points or less with Chattanooga in a Best Bet.
Upgrade Tenn Chattanooga to a 3-Star Best Bet if they are -1 or better.
2 Star Selection
WRIGHT STATE (-10 points or less) 78 Cleveland State 61
31-Jan-04 04:00 PM Pacific Time
Cleveland State has fallen apart without the presence of shot- blocking center Pape Badiane in the middle, as the Vikings have allowed 49.3% shooting in 10 games since Badiane?s injury and they?ve gone just 2-7 ATS in those games while extending their losing streak to 14 games. Wright State, meanwhile, is challenging for the Horizon League title and their home loss on Wednesday to conference leader Wisconsin Milwaukee will likely have them inspired tonight. My ratings favor Wright State by 14 points in this game and the Raiders would qualify in a solid 89-40-4 ATS big home favorite bounce-back situation if they were favored by 12 points or more, which they should be. I?d lay 10 points or less with Wright State in a 2-Star Best Bet, but I?ll consider them a Strong Opinion if they remain favored by more than 10 points.
3 Star Selection
TENNESSEE STATE (+1 or more) 77 Tennessee Tech 71
31-Jan-04 05:00 PM Pacific Time
Tennessee State was one of the worst teams in Division 1 basketball last season and they aren?t getting a lot of respect this year. However, first year coach Cy Alexander is turning things around and his Tigers are competitive this season after going 0-16 straight up in Ohio Valley games last year. Tennessee State is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog or pick (5-1 ATS at home) and tonight they catch a Tennessee Tech team that qualifies in a very negative 22- 71-4 ATS road favorite situation. Tennessee Tech has won just 1 of their 8 road games this season and that one win was by just 2 points, so their chances of winning any road game are not good. My ratings make this game a pick, so it appears as if the Tigers are still underrated. I?ll take Tennessee State as an underdog in a 3-Star Best Bet.
3 Star Selection
Cal Irvine (-1 or better) 70 IDAHO 62
31-Jan-04 07:00 PM Pacific Time
Irvine has been much better on the road, relatively, than they?ve been at home in 7 seasons under coach Pat Douglass, going just 26-39- 4 ATS at home and 45-29-2 ATS on the road. The Anteaters have also been better after a loss (39-27-1 ATS) than they have been after a victory (36-47-4 ATS) and they are 23-8-1 ATS on the road following a defeat. I expect Douglass to have his team ready for a big effort tonight after losing at Long Beach and at Utah State (they covered in that loss following the loss to Long Beach). Aside from the team trends, Irvine also applies to a solid 81-38-1 ATS road bounce-back situation and that situation is an even better 24-3 ATS if facing teams with bad records. My ratings do favor Idaho by 2 points in this game, but the situation and team trend are good enough to give up some line value and I?d take Irvine as long as they are not favored by more than 1 point.
Downgrade Irvine to a 2-Star Best Bet if they are not an underdog of 2 points or more.
PORTLAND (-10 points or less) 106 Chicago 89
Chicago is now 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games after suffering yet another double-digit loss last night in Oakland. The Bulls qualify in the same negative 35-89-2 ATS situation that they applied in last night and Portland?s 3 road wins sets them up in a positive 76-39-4 ATS home favorite momentum situation. However, my ratings favor Portland by just 8 ? points in this game and I?m not willing to give up too much line value to make them a Best Bet. With the situations included the Blazers have a solid 58% chance of covering as a 10 point favorite, which is the number at which I?ll make them a 2-Star Best Bet. However, I?ll consider Portland just a Strong Opinion if they remain favored by more than 10 points.
COLLEGE
3 Star Selection
Western Kentucky 83 FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL 61
Florida International lost their best player after 6 games this season and they are just 1-13 straight up in their last 14 games with 9 of their last 13 games being by double-digit margins. I?ve done very well going against Florida International when they?ve been at home and they are now 13-32-2 ATS at home in their history in Division 1, including 0-14-1 ATS recently (0-5 ATS this season). The Panthers also apply to a negative 21-71-1 ATS weak home court situation tonight and my ratings favor the Hilltoppers by 14 points. Western Kentucky has played just one bad team on the road, in Fordham, and they beat the Rams by 24 points in that game, so they are certainly capable of winning big here. The Hilltoppers? major weakness is their poor perimeter defense, as they allow 21 3-point attempts per game at 39% success. However, Florida International is among the worst 3-point shooting teams in the nation at just 28%, so it?s doubtful that they?ll be able to take advantage of the open looks they get from beyond the arc.
Downgrade Western Kentucky to a 2-Star Best Bet if they are favored by more than 12 points.
2 Star Selection
Cornell (-8 points or less) 74 DARTMOUTH 59
31-Jan-04 04:00 PM Pacific Time
Cornell, with a perfect 3-0 league record, has established themselves as one of the Ivy League?s better teams, while Dartmouth?s 42-78 loss last night to Columbia as a 5 point favorite relegates the Big Green as one of the Ivy?s worst teams. My ratings favor Cornell by 9 ? points in this game and Dartmouth has no home court edge in this game, as they are just 32-55-1 ATS at home in 14 seasons under coach Faucher, including just 12-37 ATS more recently. Cornell, meanwhile, is 24-10-1 ATS on the road in 4 seasons under coach Donahue, including 4-0 ATS this season and 10-1 ATS when visiting a team with a win percentage of under .400.
2 Star Selection
TENN CHATTANOOGA (-3 points or less) 88 Georgia Southern 78
31-Jan-04 04:00 PM Pacific Time
Georgia Southern has won 11 straight games, but they were favored to win all of those games and now have to battle a team that is capable of beating them. Chattanooga played below expectations early in the season, but they?ve covered the spread in 4 straight contests and qualify in a very strong 56-16-2 ATS home momentum situation tonight. My ratings using games for the entire season favor Chattanooga by just one point, but -3 would be a fair line if I used conference games only. I?ll lay 3 points or less with Chattanooga in a Best Bet.
Upgrade Tenn Chattanooga to a 3-Star Best Bet if they are -1 or better.
2 Star Selection
WRIGHT STATE (-10 points or less) 78 Cleveland State 61
31-Jan-04 04:00 PM Pacific Time
Cleveland State has fallen apart without the presence of shot- blocking center Pape Badiane in the middle, as the Vikings have allowed 49.3% shooting in 10 games since Badiane?s injury and they?ve gone just 2-7 ATS in those games while extending their losing streak to 14 games. Wright State, meanwhile, is challenging for the Horizon League title and their home loss on Wednesday to conference leader Wisconsin Milwaukee will likely have them inspired tonight. My ratings favor Wright State by 14 points in this game and the Raiders would qualify in a solid 89-40-4 ATS big home favorite bounce-back situation if they were favored by 12 points or more, which they should be. I?d lay 10 points or less with Wright State in a 2-Star Best Bet, but I?ll consider them a Strong Opinion if they remain favored by more than 10 points.
3 Star Selection
TENNESSEE STATE (+1 or more) 77 Tennessee Tech 71
31-Jan-04 05:00 PM Pacific Time
Tennessee State was one of the worst teams in Division 1 basketball last season and they aren?t getting a lot of respect this year. However, first year coach Cy Alexander is turning things around and his Tigers are competitive this season after going 0-16 straight up in Ohio Valley games last year. Tennessee State is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog or pick (5-1 ATS at home) and tonight they catch a Tennessee Tech team that qualifies in a very negative 22- 71-4 ATS road favorite situation. Tennessee Tech has won just 1 of their 8 road games this season and that one win was by just 2 points, so their chances of winning any road game are not good. My ratings make this game a pick, so it appears as if the Tigers are still underrated. I?ll take Tennessee State as an underdog in a 3-Star Best Bet.
3 Star Selection
Cal Irvine (-1 or better) 70 IDAHO 62
31-Jan-04 07:00 PM Pacific Time
Irvine has been much better on the road, relatively, than they?ve been at home in 7 seasons under coach Pat Douglass, going just 26-39- 4 ATS at home and 45-29-2 ATS on the road. The Anteaters have also been better after a loss (39-27-1 ATS) than they have been after a victory (36-47-4 ATS) and they are 23-8-1 ATS on the road following a defeat. I expect Douglass to have his team ready for a big effort tonight after losing at Long Beach and at Utah State (they covered in that loss following the loss to Long Beach). Aside from the team trends, Irvine also applies to a solid 81-38-1 ATS road bounce-back situation and that situation is an even better 24-3 ATS if facing teams with bad records. My ratings do favor Idaho by 2 points in this game, but the situation and team trend are good enough to give up some line value and I?d take Irvine as long as they are not favored by more than 1 point.
Downgrade Irvine to a 2-Star Best Bet if they are not an underdog of 2 points or more.
