Duke/Illinois Under

IntenseOperator

DeweyOxburger
Forum Member
Sep 16, 2003
17,897
63
0
Chicago
my write-up

in case it looks familiar to some here

Duke/Illinois Under (hope it gets to 150 by game time)

In the last game for each.....
-neither of their opponents played ANY defense...Ill shot .636, Duke .542
-turnovers were extremely sparse
-ton of free points with the clock stopped, due to the lazy defense played by the other team...Ill 11/14, Duke 34/38
-7 players for each team in tonights matchup scored, 6 actually, tells me what weapons are involved offensively can be focused on.

Duke is going to defend Illinois' guards, like they did last time out, limiting SH's to 3/17 from beyond the arch and .421 shooting for the game. I know they can't change their stripes, but they will want to focus more on scoring in the paint, where they have an advantage. This will slow the tempo down. Illinois knows they can't score with Duke, their guards know the game will rest on their ability to defend and harass, slowing down the tempo more. Illinois getting no respect. More focus, more defense. Against the 4 common opponents this year, each has averaged under this total, limiting the opposition to the high 60's while scoring in the low 70's themselves. Duke hasn't seen any defense over their last five games, with many being blowouts from the start. Illinois has a season of Big Ten battles to draw from, this isn't the ACC defense Duke will face. In two games early in the year, Duke beat Purdue on a neutral court 78-68, 146 points, and Mich St on the road 72-50, 122 points. Illinois brings a much better defense on a neutral court, in the elite eight, pressure time.

Bottom line
Each coach is top notch. Adjustments will have to be made as the game goes along from what is shown at the start. The shock of actually seeing some defense, and some possible tightness offensively, will keep initial scoring low. I'm hoping a slower tempo will screw up the flow of Duke's smooth offense, forcing them to go to more of a matchup situation. Hoping also to see more turnovers and less fouling in more of a half court type game. Illinois will be one-and-done as Duke rebounds better and Illinois offense is mostly of the perimeter variety. More defense=tired legs as the game goes on=lower shooting percentage. Hoping points will have to be worked for.

I know the public has been mostly correct when the have driven up the totals in this tourney. I think it's time for things to even out. The opening number was set with some thought behind it.

GL
 

Irish

Green&Orange
Forum Member
Jan 8, 2004
3,850
16
0
48
OH
GL IntenseOperator
Hope that under hits because Ill gives up because the Blue Devils have a big lead!!

Irish
 

THE KOD

Registered
Forum Member
Nov 16, 2001
42,564
315
83
Victory Lane
Intense

Nice write up and it makes alot of sense.

I agree with you on the under and how they got it set. I hope it goes up more. Not sure to play it now or wait until tonight.

Since I got bit by all the dogs last night, I aint falling into that trap again. But I sure do like UAB tonight.

KOD
 
Bet on MyBookie
Top