I politefully disagree with you. I think Duke can beat Nova easier than Texas. Texas is arguablly better than Nova. This was a while ago so doesnt mean much but texas beat Nova already and Duke beat Texas. I feel Texas and Nova are similar teams so I would lean to Duke by 4 or 5. The reason the line is Duke-2 is to get money on both sides. I think it is where it should be and would take Duke minus the points.
Only thing that scares me is this being the sweet sixteen where Duke struggles but this year I just have a feeling they get the W. If they do win, they WILL be slaughtered by Pitt, Slaughtered! Unless the refs call every touch foul it could get ugly. Anyways, just my two cents, Go Duke. Good luck with your play