BATTING
Dusty Baker gets a lot of loot from the Cubs, but it?s hard to see him adding a lot of value to this lineup, with its blend of established players like Sammy Sosa and some important new additions like 2B Bobby Hill and 1B Hee Seop Choi. Baker acknowledged he hasn?t had to deal with many young players on offense, so you might want to temper your enthusiasm for these two and possibly even much-hyped Corey Patterson. If Baker?s patience wears thin, Eric Karros (Choi?s platoon partner) and Mark Grudzialanek might make intriguing Reserve picks. So might whichever of Troy O?Leary, Tom Goodwin, Charles Gipson and Lenny Harris steps up as the fourth OF and the front-runner to replace Patterson and/or brittle OF Moises Alou.
STARTING PITCHING
Slow Quick Starts
Hooks Hooks >120 P
===== ===== ======
Baylor/Kimm 11 22 8
Baker 9 22 19
NL Average 11 24 7
Whereas the Cubs' managers last year were typical in their handling of starting pitchers, Baker had the distinction of allowing the most high-pitch outings among all managers. And he shared the love -- Livan Hernandez had nine such outings, Russ Ortiz had six, Jason Schmidt had three, and Kirk Rueter had one. However, the distribution wasn't blind -- Baker treated Ryan Jensen downright gingerly, with only two starts over 105 pitches. And Baker's slow hook was not obviously wrong:
AFTER 120 PITCHES
AB BB K HR
== == == ==
Hernandez 21 1 10 0
Ortiz 12 1 1 0
Schmidt 8 0 1 0
Rueter 1 0 0 0
None of these pitchers turned into walk-machines on those occasions when Baker kept them in the game, though with only 2 K in 20 AB, Ortiz and Schmidt do seem to have been running down. Of course, this table doesn't indicate how the pitchers threw in their next games; still, if we can infer something about Baker's judgment from this sample, then there is a method to his madness, and Cubs starters aren't destined for slings. (The hitch is that Chicago does not also have SF's trainers.)
Note, too, that Chicago's starters are slightly more efficient than San Francisco's:
P/IP
====
Hernandez 16.1
Ortiz 16.7
Schmidt 16.3
Clement 15.8
Wood 15.9
The upshot is that, in 215 IP last year, Wood threw only 3,386 pitches, whereas Hernandez threw 3,479 and Ortiz needed 3,587. So the real question is whether Baker marks time in innings or pitches; if the former, Wood's workload should not explode. Even with Hernandez's pitch count, Wood would have had only 220 IP. Back in San Fran, we anticipate that starters will finish nearer 200 IP than 220 IP.
BULLPENS
Baker's reputation is to overwork starters and use only a small few excellent relievers in set roles at the end of games. In 2002, his rotation averaged 6.1 innings per start, and all 43 saves garnered by the Giants were saved by Robb Nen. He handed out eight save opportunities to pitchers other than Nen, but none were converted.
In Chicago, he inherits a different array of problems. The Cubs pen was a complete failure in 2002, allowing a 4.92 composite ERA and converting only 23 of 48 save chances. Baker will not be afraid to stretch out Wood's and Prior's outings, which could help the pen in the short-run. The Cubs have an intriguing set of young arms, such as Juan Cruz and Kyle Farnsworth, who could still get turned around. Dave Veres, Antonio Alfonseca, Mike Remlinger and Joe Borowski have all had success in the past and Veres and Remlinger in particular add talented depth that was missing last season.
Expect Baker to select one closer and stick with that closer, barring a catastophic breakdown. It could be Alfonseca, Veres or Remlinger, or it could be one of the younger arms getting it together, like Farnsworth or Cruz. Baker will make that determination in March
Dusty Baker gets a lot of loot from the Cubs, but it?s hard to see him adding a lot of value to this lineup, with its blend of established players like Sammy Sosa and some important new additions like 2B Bobby Hill and 1B Hee Seop Choi. Baker acknowledged he hasn?t had to deal with many young players on offense, so you might want to temper your enthusiasm for these two and possibly even much-hyped Corey Patterson. If Baker?s patience wears thin, Eric Karros (Choi?s platoon partner) and Mark Grudzialanek might make intriguing Reserve picks. So might whichever of Troy O?Leary, Tom Goodwin, Charles Gipson and Lenny Harris steps up as the fourth OF and the front-runner to replace Patterson and/or brittle OF Moises Alou.
STARTING PITCHING
Slow Quick Starts
Hooks Hooks >120 P
===== ===== ======
Baylor/Kimm 11 22 8
Baker 9 22 19
NL Average 11 24 7
Whereas the Cubs' managers last year were typical in their handling of starting pitchers, Baker had the distinction of allowing the most high-pitch outings among all managers. And he shared the love -- Livan Hernandez had nine such outings, Russ Ortiz had six, Jason Schmidt had three, and Kirk Rueter had one. However, the distribution wasn't blind -- Baker treated Ryan Jensen downright gingerly, with only two starts over 105 pitches. And Baker's slow hook was not obviously wrong:
AFTER 120 PITCHES
AB BB K HR
== == == ==
Hernandez 21 1 10 0
Ortiz 12 1 1 0
Schmidt 8 0 1 0
Rueter 1 0 0 0
None of these pitchers turned into walk-machines on those occasions when Baker kept them in the game, though with only 2 K in 20 AB, Ortiz and Schmidt do seem to have been running down. Of course, this table doesn't indicate how the pitchers threw in their next games; still, if we can infer something about Baker's judgment from this sample, then there is a method to his madness, and Cubs starters aren't destined for slings. (The hitch is that Chicago does not also have SF's trainers.)
Note, too, that Chicago's starters are slightly more efficient than San Francisco's:
P/IP
====
Hernandez 16.1
Ortiz 16.7
Schmidt 16.3
Clement 15.8
Wood 15.9
The upshot is that, in 215 IP last year, Wood threw only 3,386 pitches, whereas Hernandez threw 3,479 and Ortiz needed 3,587. So the real question is whether Baker marks time in innings or pitches; if the former, Wood's workload should not explode. Even with Hernandez's pitch count, Wood would have had only 220 IP. Back in San Fran, we anticipate that starters will finish nearer 200 IP than 220 IP.
BULLPENS
Baker's reputation is to overwork starters and use only a small few excellent relievers in set roles at the end of games. In 2002, his rotation averaged 6.1 innings per start, and all 43 saves garnered by the Giants were saved by Robb Nen. He handed out eight save opportunities to pitchers other than Nen, but none were converted.
In Chicago, he inherits a different array of problems. The Cubs pen was a complete failure in 2002, allowing a 4.92 composite ERA and converting only 23 of 48 save chances. Baker will not be afraid to stretch out Wood's and Prior's outings, which could help the pen in the short-run. The Cubs have an intriguing set of young arms, such as Juan Cruz and Kyle Farnsworth, who could still get turned around. Dave Veres, Antonio Alfonseca, Mike Remlinger and Joe Borowski have all had success in the past and Veres and Remlinger in particular add talented depth that was missing last season.
Expect Baker to select one closer and stick with that closer, barring a catastophic breakdown. It could be Alfonseca, Veres or Remlinger, or it could be one of the younger arms getting it together, like Farnsworth or Cruz. Baker will make that determination in March
