Early look at the Belmont

[Valuist]

The field is now down to 6.

Contenders:
EMPIRE MAKER--arguably was the best horse at Churchill, racing wide on both turns. 5 week rest probably did the horse some good, and Frankel is the best trainer in the game. EM also had a minor foot problem Derby week that forced him to miss 2 days of training. That problem has been fixed.

FUNNY CIDE--definitely capable of winning but 2 perfect trips PLUS sentimentality=OVERBET UNDERLAY. I won't be shocked if he wins but IMO he doesn't deserve to be mentioned in the same breath w/Affirmed, Slew, Secretariat, Citation etc.

BEST MINISTER--Kenny McPeek won last year's Belmont with a 70-1 horse coming off a win in the Sir Barton named Sarava. This year he took Best Minister to Pim on Preakness Day and won the Barton in easier fashion. He's sharp and on the improve.

ALSO RANS:
DYNEVER--On the positive side, they've been pointing this horse since March for the Belmont. He is bred to run all day. On the negative side, he's beaten nobody, his numbers aren't spectacular and now he has a foot/shoeing problem.

TEN MOST WANTED--the "wiseguy horse" in the Derby got banged around and never really had a chance. I think this one needed some sort of prep between the Derby and Belmont. If the pace is fast, which I don't expect, maybe he could become a contender.

SCRIMSHAW--why does Lukas keep running horses like him and Ten Cents a Shine over their heads??

 

[kingfin66]

You pretty much summed it up Valuist. I'm rooting for Funny Cide to win the Triple Crown, but I will probably bet against him if I play at all. This year's Belmont isn't much of a betting race. The play might just be a win ticket on one of the top two, but the odds likely won't be good enough for that.

Dynever is interesting. It seems there has been a lot of hype but not a great deal of performance to back it up. He was blocked in the LS Derby, but can he improve enough to beat the top two on Saturday? I seriously doubt it.

Your comments about Best Minister are certainly valid, but I think that either FC or EM are both better horses than War Emblem. Personally, I think Sarava was a fluke (people thought that about FC too) and wouldn't expect a repeat. It's really a two horse race on Saturday.

 

[Edward Mush]

Disagree Completely

Disagree Completely

I am not sure how you can discount Ten Most Wanted. Bred to go the distance more than any other in the field, pushed to the outside in the Derby and has trained well over the last few weeks. Little known fact, this horse was a little roughed up in the Derby, has come back strong and predict him as a real problem for the Triple Crown hopeful. I see this as a three horse race with Empire Maker, Funny Cide and Ten Most Wanted as they turn for home, becomes a two horse race half way down the stretch with Ten Most Wanted edging out a rested Empire Maker. Funny Cide fades to a distant 4th place finish. That is how the Mush sees it....:thefinger

 

[Penguinfan]

War Emblem?!?!?!?!? If you mean Empire Maker then, well maybe, but I think Funny Cide rolls here once again, especially in the mud.

Penguinfan

 

[Valuist]

Now Best Minister is out of the race. They are down to 5 entries, and one of those (Supervisor) is basically a filler hoping to snag 4th money or 3rd, if God intervenes.

Mush--

Maybe you'll be right about Ten Most Wanted. But he struck me more as a horse suited to the Derby. The stretch runner who makes the big move on the turn---that kind of horse usually wins the Derby but doesn't run well at the Belmont. Also, with the small field we could get a real slow pace. I think Empire Maker will go right after Cide early on, so if they do go fast maybe TMW picks up the pieces....but I doubt it.

 

[Edward Mush]

Correct you are

Correct you are

Empire Maker will break fast and maintain the lead throughout with Funny Cide doing his best to keep pace, that is exactly where we see Funny Cide fade around the final turn and Ten Most Wanted go neck and neck with Empire Maker, Ten Most Wanted gets him by a length or so. Only 6 horses should be exciting, will wait to see on the weather.

 

[Kdogg21]

Got to go with the home horse here boys......

FunnyCide is the real deal. You look at the last race and the santos wasn't even letting him go full strength.

 

[Valuist]

Mush-

With a morning line of 10-1, Ten Most Wanted has got my interest. I do suspect he won't be that high, maybe only 5-1 or 6-1. But Funny Cide and Empire Maker don't offer much value at 1-1 or 6-5.

Kdogg-

But that last race was virtually a match race vs a tired Peace Rules. There was no Empire Maker, no Ten Most Wanted and no Dynever.

There is one reason to pull for Funny Cide, however. If he wins the Triple Crown, Visa must pony up $5 million to the owners.

 

[gjn23]

Of the 4 horses we've seen here's the race as I see it playing out:

Scrimshaw and Funny Cide will be on the lead most of the way.
Empire Maker will be stalking about a length or two behind.
10 Most should be about a lenght or two behing EM
I think Supervisor is a closer which would mean he's be about 5+ lengths back.
Dynever...?????? Anybody out there know what type of runner Dynever is???

Scrimshaw will fade around the turn (similar to Preakness) and Funny Cide will take the lead....EM will start to make his move as will 10 Most.

These three will duel it out from the final turn to down the stretch. Who has enough left in the tank and the early fractions left should determine the winner. My guess is one will completely fade or not fire. Can the pig Supervisor run late for 2nd ? or 3rd? can Scrimshaw hold on for 3rd? If one of the top 3 fades will they fall all the way out of the money?

I was on Funny Cide/10 Most in the Derby...was all over Funny Cide in the Belmont and would love to see him win the Triple Crown...he really looks to be a horse on the improve...but so was Real Quiet...Silver Charm...War Emblem...Charasimatic.... and they all failed at Belmont. My mind says Empire Maker is the choice but he offers little value as well. 10 Most is someone I'd like to fire on but have a feeling he'll be down to 5-1 or 6-1.

At even money it will be hard to make any money in the exotics on Funny Cide, so a $2 souiveneer win ticket on Funny Cide is about all I've decided for now.

One question with only 6 enteres is there even trifecta wagering??? I've been assuming yes.

 

[Morris]

Living in Saratoga all the hype is on Funny Cide. I live just about a mile from where he was born and raised. Not alot going on there, just a white banner stating that he was born there. On the other hand everything in the papers is Funny Cide everything. It's kind of overdone. I give him credit for the Derby and a perfect trip in the Preakness( where I really don't think there were any really strong caliber horses). but that workout for a mile and a half race was way too fast. I really don't want to see a triple crown this year because these horses are not Slew, Sec., or Affirmed quality. Just my opinion but a NY bred gelding winning the Belmont?? Probably not but stranger things have happened.

Just a note, after the Derby, The local OTB's didn't have enough money to pay off. Everyone around here bet Funny Cide!!

Bob

 

[kingfin66]

gjn23:

1) Dynever is a closer.

2) I use VIP. They are showing trifecta wagering for the Belmont. If I play this race - and that is a big IF - I will play $20 trifecta EM over FC over ALL. Unless, of course, I change my mind.

 

[Edward Mush]

10-1

10-1

Think Ten Most Wanted is gong to go off 5 or 6-1 so locked in at Sportsbook.com. 10-1. Will also play some match ups. 10-1 with a horse this talented in a 6 horse field is too good to pass on.

 

[Skanoochies]

I believe this Tagg is one shrewd customer and the fast work was exactly what he wanted, sharpen him up with the intention of sending him when the gate opens and if you want to beat him you have to come and get him.

We`ll see Sat. good luck everyone whoever you bet on.

Just my opinion,
Skanoochies.

 

[NYMess]

Dynever is a horse that likes to come off the pace, possibly 1 1/2 lengths off like in his last race. Prado rode him in Lone Star Derby and said that he was amazed at the kick Dynever had left when entering the stretch boxed in on the rail. The down side to Dynever is that the Belmont will be only his 5th race and he has stepped up in distance in each race.
In my opinion, if Scrimshaw and Funny Cide engage in a speed duel at the onset, the EM and Dynever will be battling for the prize money down the stretch.

Good Luck to all

 

[Morris]

Wow if Tagg wants to push the fractions in a front end race I think Funny Cide gets cooked. A mile and a half is a long way for a 3 yr. this early in the year. If he gets hooked up in a speed dual and they run 1:11 for 3/4 I don't see how he will last. Short field to his advantage, but a NY bred gelding I just don't know. Probably a no bet for me, too many questions and not enough value.

Bob:shrug:

 

[Doubledown21]

A question if you bet sports at 11-10 why would you not bet even money if you think he is going to win. It always puzzle me when i hear these comments. No value!

 

[kingfin66]

I don't bet sports at 11:10, I bet thoroughbreds. For horseplayers, value is a long-term thing. In horse betting, even money is not value. It's bad enough when an even money horse is head and shoulders above the field. When there is another strong contender or contenders in the race, even money is risky. When you say that a horse is even money, you are really saying that it has a 50% chance of winning the race. Funny Cide will likely go even less than even. With Empire Maker also in the race and, in my opinion, just as strong a contender as Funny Cide, there is no way I can say that FC has a 50% chance of winning the race. I would put his chances at 35%, which works out to 9-5 or 2-1 odds. Even that isn't great value.

I could write a lot more about this. To a horse player there really isn't value, but I can see where a non-horseplayer who wants a spot play on a big event could be satisfied with doubling their money.

Good luck today no matter what you decide to do!

 

[KotysDad]

Can someone answer a question for me.........Olympic has the following matchup

Funny Cide -185 vs.
10 most wanted or dynever +155


If you bet Funny Cide in this prop, are you betting that he can beat either of those horses? or does he have to beat both?

Thanks.

 

[Phenom]

I think he has to beat them both.


TRIFECTA: Funny Cide over Empire Maker/Ten Most Wanted/ Dynever

Good luck to everyone, don't know how much will be made on this race, but then again last year happened!

 

[Ice Picks]

After reading...

After reading...

these posts, I am impressed with all the great information by several different posters...after reading them all 3 times, and looking at what odds are available at BET365 and NASA, am playing the following...which seem to offer som value...


1. Ten Most Wanted - win, place and show...currently at 8/1

2. Ten Most Wanted and Dynever +160 over Funnycide...


Funnycide could win this by 10 lengths wire to wire over the field - he has looked that good to me - but you have a couple of legitimate contenders with a couple of cagey jockeys on board, who probably have a trick or two up their sleeves...

IP

RE-CAP:

Ten-Most Wanted: won place and show, and match bet vs. Funnycide...Thanks to Valuist and Mush and others for the great info...