early look/leans/comments

[pepin46]

denver/miami

better team, at home, prevails. let's hope they cover the 3 points.

indy/balt

if nothing, it should be an interesting game:
i rate them both fairly even, like in the close to mediocre category, with a slight tilt toward indy getting this many points.

carol/n.o

this one is good for a m.l. play and could be interesting in a parlay, carol & over. would not put a plugged nickel on n.o. giving this many points to anybody.

n.e./jets

i will stay with wonder boy brady, still getting points. jets are playing fairly well, but n.e. just a notch better.

st louis/atlanta

at most, a m.l. play on atlanta. otherwise, nothing.

tampa/cinci

this one is not for me.

tenn/clev

clev still getting no respect. will stay with them against a very disorganized and aimless team. clev on a serious run for the money.

detroit/chi

all chicago backers, are you just a bit nervous? leaning to detroit for the cover and maybe the m.l. as well?

s.d./seattle

flutie is on top of my sh...list, so will take seattle to get back on track for the moment.

ariz/oak

a wonderful "surprise" potential here, both on spread and m.l. oak's mind is on bigger fish and preparation for the playoffs.

dallas/wash

one of the worst nfl teams meets one of the best. make all the arguments you want for dallas, but i would not even consider them in a superteaser. did anybody really expect to get a wash-3 or -4 line here? the cheap lines are over for wash. either believe or bail out.

buff/s.f.

s.f. not as good, not at least to be giving 9 points to anyone. buff's offense is in the experimental stages and hard for s.f. to prepare. look for a reversal here, also with the potential of a straight upset.

green bay/jax

if green bay doesn't win this game handily, they are D O N E.

pep

 

[phoenix566]

denver/miami

lean to denver now getting 3 and a hook. better games exist so probably a no play on this one (just heard Den is Mickelson's MIL pick though....)


indy/balt

agree with your thoughts. slight lean to Indy and maybe small play, otherwise pass.

carol/n.o

anyone who will lay 10.5 points with NO is just plain nuts. I have vested interests in NO losing outright (can win a suicide pool), and may play caro small on m/l. most likely a no play here though.

n.e./jets

lean to NE against my boys. like them +9 in a teaser more though. jets do continue to 'baffle' me though.

st louis/atlanta

I think Atlanta is in a good spot to pull off upset here. rams got SF on tap and a pretty poor OL currently. definate play +7.5, prob ML as well.

tampa/cinci

maybe TB in a 6 point teaser with NE above???

tenn/clev

the brownies ARE for real!!!! the bet on them is a 'sucker' play, but will probably win......

detroit/chi

If the 'player' in one of my pools that I have described is on Chi this weekend, mortgage play on the LIONS!!!

s.d./seattle

trend play is on SD....most likely a pass here.

ariz/oak

tough one to call. agree Oak may be overlooking zona in this divisional sandwich they are in and looking forward to playoffs, but part of me thinks this Oak team can sleepwalk through games and still cover. vested interests for Oak TO cover therefore no play in real world..... (I would probably be playing zona if other 'conflicts' did not exist)

dallas/wash

I have been touting Washington alongside you for the past 5-6 weeks as well, but now that vegas has caught on and flipped the table, i'd like to see how the skins do in this new 'role'. probably a pass, but maybe a small play on the boys.......

buff/s.f.

agree with your analysis. definate play on Buff...too bad not in earlier before news about Owen as line is now 8.

green bay/jax

agree with you. no real opinions on game yet. will wait until monday and release something for y'all to fade......

 

[pepin46]

you mean you are waiting for your fellow office worker to make his pick so you can fade him? tsk, tsk., phoenix.

i have come to the conclusion that you can't think teasers until you are firm on your selections. for me, that is usually thursday, friday at the latest.

i saw your post on another thread, but did not want to hog it up with the following:

don't even think teasers until your picks are firm! the teaser will be a lot easier then, plus your (our) brains get scrambled thinking teasers and then looking to make straight picks. live and learn on this one.

since we have been in tandem here lately, may i suggest you follow this pattern and then try the 13 pt superteaser at -130, and don't do totals!

once your picks are firm, your superteaser should be more than firm. sometimes it is best to avoid the big home favorite, as an upset will kill even the 13 pointer.

my picks are almost done: miami, pitt, n.e., clev., seattle, wash.
lurking in the background: buff, indy, ariz, green bay, detroit.

i have not done my main superteaser yet, but will suggest the following, and maybe you can throw something back at me:

miami +10 **
indy +16.5
carol +23.5
pitt +6
n.e. +16 oh yeah!**
detroit +20.5 **
seattle +10
ariz +26 yes, yes**
wash +4.5
buff +21? for sure**
green bay +10 **

** means done deal. comments?

although i am going with wash and still think it is one of the top choices, the fact that an unlikely upset may kill the teaser is enough reason to skip it, as there is only 4.5 to play with. ditto for pitt with 6 points.

no way i would consider n.o. +3, oak -.5 or s.f. +4.

anyone wants to jump in with teaser angles, thoughts, counterpoints, go ahead, that's what we are here for.


pep

 

[phoenix566]

you mean you are waiting for your fellow office worker to make his pick so you can fade him? tsk, tsk., phoenix.

My picks are made before I see these picks. Usually I am on the other side of him long before he confirms it. His plays do dictate the strength of some of my plays though. How can you resist fading someone who through the years has proven to go 1-2 consistently, 2-1 hardly, 3-0 rarely and 0-3 oftenly....fading the concensus has proven good also and when the two align....fugeddaboutit. This week, both top concensus and top player pick are..........the Rams

i have come to the conclusion that you can't think teasers until you are firm on your selections. for me, that is usually thursday, friday at the latest.

agreed. but sides i initially throw away, i then think teaser.

since we have been in tandem here lately, may i suggest you follow this pattern and then try the 13 pt superteaser at -130, and don't do totals!

once your picks are firm, your superteaser should be more than firm. sometimes it is best to avoid the big home favorite, as an upset will kill even the 13 pointer.

I almost always avoid the big home favorite

. The logic is sound, but 2 and 3 teamers make me nervous enough...besides my book does not have them, nor my online....multiple team 6-8 point teasers, but no 'sweetheart' teasers. Someone I know has 13 point teased a lot of totals over only and has done quite well withthese this year.

my picks are almost done: miami, pitt, n.e., clev., seattle, wash.
lurking in the background: buff, indy, ariz, green bay, detroit.

i have not done my main superteaser yet, but will suggest the following, and maybe you can throw something back at me:

miami +10 **
indy +16.5
carol +23.5
pitt +6
n.e. +16 oh yeah!**
detroit +20.5 **
seattle +10
ariz +26 yes, yes**
wash +4.5
buff +21? for sure**
green bay +10 **

** means done deal. comments?

can't really argue with any of them, except maybe - arizona (if 12 ain't enough.....42 may not be enough). A sharp guy I know got into trouble getting caught up with teasers last year and had his worst year ever since doing this for a while. I try and play teasers sparingly as such.


although i am going with wash and still think it is one of the top choices, the fact that an unlikely upset may kill the teaser is enough reason to skip it, as there is only 4.5 to play with. ditto for pitt with 6 points.

i might have said this above as well, but i sneaked a peek ahead at what you wrote

no way i would consider n.o. +3, oak -.5 or s.f. +4.

maybe Oak -.5, really don't see them losing here. agree on the others...but I am somewhat biased to the other sides

keep up the good work my man

 

[Senor Capper]

What ?

No talk about the Pitt/Minn game ?

 

[djv]

Ok super tez yes. 6 pointer no. And for dam sure don't ask be what team to tez anything with. I fine the wrong one each time. This week what to do. Balt Over? I go that way or watch. Minn under, Jets under,TBay over,Det over,Dallas under,GB over. Pitt,Cinn,Dallas,Cleve,Jets,GB, So im nuts.
For got GL To All
I forgot to say these are my ats with out tez thoughts. If tezing I would think again.
[This message has been edited by djv (edited 12-01-2001).]

[This message has been edited by djv (edited 12-02-2001).]

 

[pepin46]

no totals on teasers, djv. too many bad experiences. i am done with my picks:

miami
pitt
clev
n.e.
wash

superteasers-i did two, kind of overdoing it:

miami +10
n.e. +16
clev +13
wash +5

another one

indy +19.5
carol +23.5
ariz +24.5
buff +21

feel pretty good with both of them. we will see.


pep

p.s. yes, i overlooked minn/pitt. solid behing pitt.

 

[Senor Capper]

Got Pitt -7

What are the odds on a superteaser ?

 

[pepin46]

-130/100

must admit this is the best for me. just need to make sure my picks are well thought before making these selections.

i violated one of the rules by picking wash laying a bunch, but i just had to. if you are going to do them, don't do totals.


pep

 

[phoenix566]

good luck pep

 

[GlobalTrance]

I enjoy your write-ups Pepin, Good Luck Today