early plays

[TheShrimp]

Junior at 12-1 and B Labonte at 16-1.

I like Gordon, but 7-1 is too thin. Don't know why he'd be so much shorter than Jr. and Labonte. Jr looks like he is getting his act together. He snagged a 4th here last year.

Maybe another look at Craven at 40-1, or 8-1 to come in top 3. He won the pole here last year and was out because of an accident. Still seeing a lot of value on this guy who's run solidly all year.

 

[howdy]

Shrimp,
I hate to keep butting in on your thread but it looks like we are the only ones who want to talk about a race before race day


This race will require a lot of patience, Jr has not shown us that he has it. How many times have we seen him take himself out of a race because he bumped the car in front and damaged his own car OR drive his car to hard early in the race which causes his tires to go away.
This type of track lends itself to the wiley veterans who know that all they have to do is keep the front runner in view until the last 50 laps then make thier move.

My take on the odds, 40 to 1 is not good odds if the driver does not win, 7 to 1 is excellent odds if he does.
Do not base your plays on the odds!

That 8 to 1 show bet is by far your best shot.

Have a good week

 

[royalfan]

Don't base your play on odds? That is nonsense. You HAVE to base your plays on line value in this business or you will get killed.

 

[howdy]

Royal,
I always thought plays should be based on who really has a shot at winning rather than who is giving you the best odds.
It does no good to have great odds if you lose.

Taking Craven to win at 40 to 1 is not nearly as likely to pay off as taking the 8 to 1 odds of him running in the top three. After all he has been driving WC cars for about 8 years and has 1 win.

I understand that I can be wrong, in fact it happens fairly often.
Please explain to me where I have wrong here?

 

[TheShrimp]

Well, it's all about how much of a shot a guy has to win versus what the payout is.

You might think Jeff Gordon has a good shot at winning this Sunday, but that doesn't mean you'd lay down 10 to win 10. You sure would lay down $10 to win $500, though.

Basically, you can't consider the drivers in a vaccuum. You can if you're not betting, but you need to figure the odds in for gambling.

So, craven might be 30-1 against winning, but if he pays 40-1, that's a better bet than if Gordon is 5-1 against winning, but he only pays 3-1. You'll cash that gordon ticket more often, but IN THE LONG RUN, you'd make more money on Craven because his payout is better than his odds. You might wait 30 races to cash that craven ticket, but you'd win $400 against the $300 you've paid out.

This kind of stuff, I get. It's racing I don't get. But that's what MJ's is about, dude. Getting it all together to win some $$$$.

 

[howdy]

Ok,
I think I know where I went wrong, I should have said dont be lured into a play BECAUSE of the odds.
Shrimp lets put actual numbers to the Craven / Gordon play you mentioned,
Since starting in Winston Cups Racing Cravens record is
184 starts
1 win
6 top 3 (includes the 1 win)
If you had played all of these at 40 to 1 you would have been a $1,430.00 loser.

Now lets look at Gordon
238 starts
61 wins
95 top 3
If you had played all of these at 3 to 1 you would have won $60.00
(all based on the $10 wager)

As you can see neither one of these would have been good plays BUT with Gordon and the crappy 3 to 1 odds you would have won $$$.
So the actual value of a play has to be based on the chances of winning.

Please understand that I know nobody would play the same driver every race just because he is 40 to 1.

To me a value play was Labonte last week. His shot of winning that race based on his skill, car, team and record made the 9 to 1 odds look great.
Based on those same facts playing Craven at 40 to 1 is not a good value.


Shrimp,
I am not dogging your Craven play at all. That is just what started this conversation. It is just that as I stated earlier I see far better chances of cashing the 8 to 1 show bet than I do a 40 to 1 win bet.

Have a great day!

 

[The Big Tease]

Howdy:


I would really love to talk about a race before raceday, but it simply doesnt matter. When I handicap a race, I do it similar to how Stanley handicaps a golf tournament (if you are familiar). I use three factors. The most important is how a driver is doing in practice, the second factor is past performance at this track (which I suppose I could get into, but most cappers will know that info anyways, and the third is current form, or how they have done lately.

My system goes like this.....I take Fridays practice session, qualifying position, and happy hour speeds, and I have a formula that will rank the drivers 1-43, then I will take each drivers last 5 performances at the track, and take out the worst of the 5, then average them, and then rank my drivers 1-43. Then I will also take the average finish of the driver in the last 4 races, and rank each driver from 1-43. Once I have ranked drivers for all 3 categories, I will add the PRACTICE RANK twice, then multiply the PAST PERFORMANCE AT THIS TRACK rating by 1.5 and add it to the total. Then add the ranking that you get for CURRENT FORM to the total. When you get totals for each driver, then rank them from lowest to highest with the lowest being your best driver, and go from there.


I will try to post my findings as soon as I get time, but I have been on fire in college hoops this month, so I will be spending some time there today.

 

[howdy]

Tease,
Congrats on your success in College Hoops

I would like to see more input from cappers like yourself and TheShrimp here as I see NASCAR as one of the easiest sports to actually win at and the more info and opinions we have to work with the better it is for all.
Personally I do not like to try and pick winners but playing the matchups can be very profitable.
I look foward to your write ups and would like to see more. I do understand the situation, hell I do not even get the matchups from my book until the morning of the race.

I like your system but how do you factor in for rookies and second year drivers who may not have all the stats like past 5 performances at the track?

 

[The Big Tease]

Howdy:

There is a little bit of modifying for this type of thing. You just have to really pay attention to how those drivers are practicing and how their teammates are doing or how their teammates have done in the past. You are right that it cant be 100% efficient, but if you really do your homework, it can be made to work.

 

[howdy]

Big Tease,
I really do like the way you do it especially for playing the driver matchups.
I think a person with just a basic knowledge of NASCAR could use your system and make money playing the matchups.

I know this is asking a lot and I am being lazy but would it be possible for you to post your driver totals. That would be some interesting info to look at.



Good Luck This Week!

 

[Grama]

Big Tease: I use a similar system, using qualifying times, practice times, and last couple races before the week. I never thought about putting past track performance into the equation. I may have to look into that. I however usually start a "bettable" list and that always has past winners. Like Jarrett, has won is Darlington, I look at him hard when he has such long odds.

Grama:weed:

 

[howdy]

Shrimp,
I hope you ignored me and took the 40 to 1!
I have to say that Craven looked like the way he used to before his big wreck.
If he keeps driving like that he will not be a 40 to 1 shot for long.

 

[TheShrimp]

Great win. I had him to come in top 3. 2 cashes in a row.

Of course what TBT said makes a lot of sense.

For one, I don't get on a computer much on the weekends. That's part of my weekend -- to get away from them.

But, I'm fully aware that i'm making a judgement with early plays based on not seeing them practice, not knowing where they will qualify, or whatever. Of course there are tons of factors to consider, so I like getting to think about it early, just like NFL. Just my .02.

Anyway, I was so psyched about this win. My family doesn't EVER watch NASCAR (like I've said, this is really the first year I'm getting into it) but I called them yesterday (up in Maine) and first thing Mom said was "did you see what Ricky Craven did?"

Beautiful race. With about 12 to go, he was making up .25 second per lap and was 3 seconds down.

You gotta figure some of the value on him is going to disappear. They got that Pontiac running well, though. He hasn't been out of anything all year, really (cept Vegas) and is now 5th in the points.

Lots of beatin' and bangin' yesterday and more next week at Bristol.

Good luck, all.