- Mar 22, 2009
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Eastern Conference Finals Preview --- Cle Cavs Vs Orl Magic
For the record ----- KING may get close to 100 FT attempts this series .:0corn
At the conclusion of the 2007 Finals, Tim Duncan intercepted LeBron James outside the Q media room, consoling the newly swept Cavs star by telling him he'd be running the league soon.
Given their 66 regular-season wins, James' MVP honors and the perfect postseason run the Cavs are on, it looks like we may be on the brink of Duncan's proclomation ringing true. Come 2010, he'll be the preferred target of almost every team in the NBA with spending cash.:director:
It's not far-fetched to wonder whether he'll ever seriously make a run at averaging a triple-double through a whole season or if he'll one day catch Michael Jordan in winning a ring for his naked opposite hand.
Presumptuous? Sure, but it's normal for him to capture the imagination.
Before he wins six titles, he's got to earn his first. To do that this season, his next step is getting through these Eastern Conference finals, butting heads against a potential heel, perhaps the one player who has the best chance of challenging him for league ownership the longest.
LeBron, you've met Dwight Howard.
For the most part, they've been teammates at All-Star games and international competitions. From Vegas to Macau, they've been linked. They'll now be adversaries.
Much as he'd like to, Howard will probably never grab a board on one end and lead a fast break the other way like James can. Even though he's famously won a slam dunk competition, Howard won't be who everyone is out to see if the 2010 Dallas dunk contest goes down as expected. He'll never truly be comfortable on the perimeter, and won't have as amusing a puppet running around as a shill for Nike. His would have adidas gear on.
Howard can't do a lot of the things James can, but one thing he can do, unquestionably, is take total control a game and a series. Phil Jackson wasn't trying to take a contrarian point of view when he told Dan Patrick earlier this year that given the choice of anyone in the league to build around, he'd choose Howard over James. For the most part, NBA championships in the post-Jordan era have almost exclusively been won by game-changing big men.
Hakeem Olajuwon won the first title up for grabs while Jordan was playing baseball, with David Robinson, Tim Duncan and Shaquille O'Neal following suit. As much as Shaq wants to fight passing off the baton, Howard appears to be next.
His postseason is currently best remembered for his Game 5 exploits in the first two rounds, blowing up at Stan Van Gundy in Boston or throwing a suspension-worthy elbow at Philly's Samuel Dalembert. When he hasn't been seething with frustration, Howard has been a model of consistency. He's got double-doubles in all 12 games he's played in, averaging 19.6 points, 16.6 rebounds and 2.8 blocks with a pair of 20-20 nights.
If his best is yet to come, Howard becomes the great equalizer in this and any series. He becomes James' largest obstacle in his pursuit of any of Jordan's lofty achievements. Regardless of whether LeBron stays in Cleveland or heads to Brooklyn or New York, he'll remain in the Eastern Conference. Howard, signed to a lengthy extension in the 2008 offseason, will right there with him, posted up in Orlando.
We missed out on LeBron/D-Wade this postseason, but this showdown with Howard may be the first of many.
Charles Barkley, Patrick Ewing and Karl Malone all failed to break through against the original 2-3. It's time to see if James can pull a Jordan and start denying the best bigs of his generation.
HISTORY: Orlando won two of three against the Cavs this season, running its string of victories to eight of 11. The teams have never met in the playoffs.
PLAYER TO WATCH:
The guy who does the thing with the powder before games is worth keeping an eye on, as is the muscle-bound 7-footer who occasionally talks to the ball. Besides those two, the key to the series is Orlando's Hedo Turkoglu, who can help Howard guide the Magic to the Finals if he stays focused. He put away the Celtics with 25 points and 12 assists in Game 7 and is the key to the Magic's offensive execution. If he's hitting shots and mixes in a few drives to keep defenses off balance, he can get his team into the desired rhythm.
WHAT TO LOOK FOR: Defense will set the tone for both teams, keying their success. The Magic's ability to consistently hit the 3-pointer makes them a far more challenging opponent than Detroit or Atlanta were, so count on Cleveland's streak of allowing no more than 85 points in a game this postseason ending soon. Containing the boards is crucial for the Cavaliers, because limiting second chances will help extend Orlando's ruts and keep it from hanging around by clawing and scrapping. For the Cavs to advance in this series with minimal damage, they have to be the tougher side, physically and mentally.
KEY MATCHUP: The sting of losing Jameer Nelson resurfaced against Boston, but not enough to discount what Rafer Alston has brought the Magic since his arrival. His defense on All-Star Mo Williams will be a major factor, not to mention the speed with which he gets Orlando into its offense. As was the case against the Celtics, it wouldn't be to the Magic's benefit for Cleveland to set its defense. The Cavs need Williams to continue to be a catalyst, capable of carrying the offense for stretches with his shooting to take some of the load off of James.
LIKELY STARTERS: Cavs -- F LeBron James, F Anderson Varejao, C Zydrunas Ilgauskas, G Mo Williams, G Delonte West.
Magic -- F Hedo Turkoglu, F Rashard Lewis, C Dwight Howard, G Rafer Alston, G Courtney Lee or J.J. Redick.
COACHING EDGE: Brown and Van Gundy finished first and third in this season's Coach of the year balloting, so they've been doing most of the right things all year. Van Gundy will have more of a target on him due to his team's propensity for blowing leads, but neither of these coaches really care much for what anyone thinks of them. Their personalities may be polar opposites, but both are kept happy by moving the ball and committing to defense.
THE CAVS WILL WIN IF: They keep Howard from getting too comfortable in the paint, drawing attention from the perimeter. It's hard to imagine Orlando's defense being able to stay in front of James, guaranteeing break downs and open looks that will rattle the underdog. Look for Cleveland to win the battle of the benches, with Daniel Gibson making a big dent from the perimeter.
THE MAGIC WILL WIN IF: They become the best gang rebounding team in the league. It can't just be Howard who goes to the boards, as the Cavs are probably the league's best at putting a body on you and hitting the glass around the basket. Hitting their fair share of 3-pointers, since you know they'll be taking them, is also essential.
PREDICTION: Cleveland in six. As if to remove all doubt that the Cavs are ready to take the next step, they'll stroll into Orlando and avoid a Game 7 to move to 3-for-3 in advancing on opposing home floors. LeBron James and his crew have been too consistent all season to avoid a letdown here. Although the Magic are due to have some matchups they can look to exploit, it's going to take a level of execution they don't currently have in them to survive and advance.
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