Tough week last week for my Trojans, but we still went 9-5 on here and up to 23-9 for the season
http://www.madjacksports.com/forum/showthread.php?560031-Week-3-Easy-Money-(13-4-YTD)
Lets keep it going today. Heres a couple bigger games I like plus some smaller bets/leans. I will update this post throughout the day with more winners. GL everyone.
IOWA +7 - I will never back another Big10 team as a favorite again this year, but Iowa getting 7 pts here is a nice spot for them. Pitt offense is very one dimensional, they rely too much on their workhorse RB James Conner. Their passing attack is ranked #123 in the nation and QB Voytik will need to prove he can beat Iowa over the top with 8 guys in the box to stop Conner. I'm not sure Voytik is ready to win a game like that. Pitt is also missing their Center which should cause problems for the running game and possibly lead to a fumbled snap. Iowa offense is nothing special but I expect them to be in a lot of close, grind it out Big10 games this year and today's matchup should be a similar result in a low scoring, run oriented game. Iowa is 38-18-1 ATS run off a SU loss and they're on a 6-0 ATS run on the road
MARSHALL -10 - Marshall offense looks unstoppable as Cato should be able to connect with Shuler and co against a terrible Akron secondary. Akron doesnt have anywhere near the offensive firepower necessary to keep up in this one. Thundering Herd are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games in September.
Thundering Herd are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games
FLORIDA +15 - this is not the same Alabama team from years past. Blake Sims is a significant downgrade from AJ McCarron and I have a feeling fans will be calling for a QB change soon. He locks on to receivers and isnt accurate beyond 10+ yds which will cause problems against a fast, athletic Florida secondary that can leave its DBs in man to man and put safeties over the top of Amari Cooper. On the other side of the ball Jeff Driskel is running the type of offense that can spread Alabama out and give them problems. Alabama secondary has been exposed at times this year and I expect that to continue today as the Gators will move the ball effectively. Alabama should pull out a close win but I'll take the points in this one. Alabama is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
MISSOURI -14 - I've got Maty Mauk on pretty much every DraftKings team today and expect him to spread the ball around and put up huge numbers against an Indiana defense that was just torched by Bowling Green's backup QB making his first ever start. Mizzou dominates the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and handles an IU team that is yet to beat the spread this year.
MIAMI +8 - going against the public here but I think Miami has the speed to keep this one close. Freshman QB Kayaa is turnover prone but if he can manage the game and keep the Hurricanes close I think they have a chance to pull the outright win. Nebraska's strength is the running game with Abdullah but Miami's run defense is excellent (2.0 ypc allowed) and has future NFL defenders like Denzel Perriman and Tracy Howard to contain them. Miami is 8-0 ATS off a win by 17 points or more over the last three seasons. The Hurricanes are 8-1 ATS after playing a non-conference game over the last three seasons. Nebraska is 25-54-2 ATS in its last 81 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. Miami is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games following an ATS win. The Huskers are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games
WVU +8.5 - really liked what I saw from this WVU team against Alabama. lets look at the recent history in this series - 2013?Oklahoma 16-7 as the Sooners were 21 point favs at home. 2012 in Morgantown; the Sooners are a 12 point fav on the road?final score, Oklahoma 50-49 over the Mountaineers. I see another shootout here as WVU should be able to protect Trickett and spread out the OU defense that looked vulnerable against Tennessee's garbage QB Worley. This should be a wild back and forth, high scoring game and in those type of environments its always better to take the double digit underdog at home
MISS STATE +10 - this LSU defense hasnt faced a QB as good as Prescott and on the other side of the ball, their inexperienced QB rotation will struggle vs a veteran defense. LSU probably pulls some typical Les Miles late game magic but I think this game stays close the whole time
VANDY +14 - biting the bullet here. Vandy has been awful but this is a huge letdown game for SC and Mason needs a signature win at home. Vandy defense actually looking better in second half last week. I'll take the points at home
ADDING CLEMSON +11 - I liked this even at +21 with Jameis but I'm all over it without him. Beasely and the Clemson D will be able to pin their ears back and rush Maguire downhill all game. I dont know much about Maguire but any QB playing his first game vs an athletic Clemson D is going to be in trouble. I also like Clemson's freshman QB Watson to be able to make a few plays with his feet and keep them close
ARIZONA OVER 69 - two high powered offenses who want to run a lot of plays vs bad defenses here. typical Pac12 45-38 shootout in this one
OREGON OVER 78 - the over in this game has covered 5 of the last 6. WSU doesnt run the ball. They will be forced to air it out to keep up with an Oregon offense that should crush them for at least 45 pts
OKLAHOMA OVER 66 - both teams average a ton of plays and should push this over
http://www.madjacksports.com/forum/showthread.php?560031-Week-3-Easy-Money-(13-4-YTD)
Lets keep it going today. Heres a couple bigger games I like plus some smaller bets/leans. I will update this post throughout the day with more winners. GL everyone.
IOWA +7 - I will never back another Big10 team as a favorite again this year, but Iowa getting 7 pts here is a nice spot for them. Pitt offense is very one dimensional, they rely too much on their workhorse RB James Conner. Their passing attack is ranked #123 in the nation and QB Voytik will need to prove he can beat Iowa over the top with 8 guys in the box to stop Conner. I'm not sure Voytik is ready to win a game like that. Pitt is also missing their Center which should cause problems for the running game and possibly lead to a fumbled snap. Iowa offense is nothing special but I expect them to be in a lot of close, grind it out Big10 games this year and today's matchup should be a similar result in a low scoring, run oriented game. Iowa is 38-18-1 ATS run off a SU loss and they're on a 6-0 ATS run on the road
MARSHALL -10 - Marshall offense looks unstoppable as Cato should be able to connect with Shuler and co against a terrible Akron secondary. Akron doesnt have anywhere near the offensive firepower necessary to keep up in this one. Thundering Herd are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games in September.
Thundering Herd are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games
FLORIDA +15 - this is not the same Alabama team from years past. Blake Sims is a significant downgrade from AJ McCarron and I have a feeling fans will be calling for a QB change soon. He locks on to receivers and isnt accurate beyond 10+ yds which will cause problems against a fast, athletic Florida secondary that can leave its DBs in man to man and put safeties over the top of Amari Cooper. On the other side of the ball Jeff Driskel is running the type of offense that can spread Alabama out and give them problems. Alabama secondary has been exposed at times this year and I expect that to continue today as the Gators will move the ball effectively. Alabama should pull out a close win but I'll take the points in this one. Alabama is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
MISSOURI -14 - I've got Maty Mauk on pretty much every DraftKings team today and expect him to spread the ball around and put up huge numbers against an Indiana defense that was just torched by Bowling Green's backup QB making his first ever start. Mizzou dominates the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and handles an IU team that is yet to beat the spread this year.
MIAMI +8 - going against the public here but I think Miami has the speed to keep this one close. Freshman QB Kayaa is turnover prone but if he can manage the game and keep the Hurricanes close I think they have a chance to pull the outright win. Nebraska's strength is the running game with Abdullah but Miami's run defense is excellent (2.0 ypc allowed) and has future NFL defenders like Denzel Perriman and Tracy Howard to contain them. Miami is 8-0 ATS off a win by 17 points or more over the last three seasons. The Hurricanes are 8-1 ATS after playing a non-conference game over the last three seasons. Nebraska is 25-54-2 ATS in its last 81 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. Miami is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games following an ATS win. The Huskers are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games
WVU +8.5 - really liked what I saw from this WVU team against Alabama. lets look at the recent history in this series - 2013?Oklahoma 16-7 as the Sooners were 21 point favs at home. 2012 in Morgantown; the Sooners are a 12 point fav on the road?final score, Oklahoma 50-49 over the Mountaineers. I see another shootout here as WVU should be able to protect Trickett and spread out the OU defense that looked vulnerable against Tennessee's garbage QB Worley. This should be a wild back and forth, high scoring game and in those type of environments its always better to take the double digit underdog at home
MISS STATE +10 - this LSU defense hasnt faced a QB as good as Prescott and on the other side of the ball, their inexperienced QB rotation will struggle vs a veteran defense. LSU probably pulls some typical Les Miles late game magic but I think this game stays close the whole time
VANDY +14 - biting the bullet here. Vandy has been awful but this is a huge letdown game for SC and Mason needs a signature win at home. Vandy defense actually looking better in second half last week. I'll take the points at home
ADDING CLEMSON +11 - I liked this even at +21 with Jameis but I'm all over it without him. Beasely and the Clemson D will be able to pin their ears back and rush Maguire downhill all game. I dont know much about Maguire but any QB playing his first game vs an athletic Clemson D is going to be in trouble. I also like Clemson's freshman QB Watson to be able to make a few plays with his feet and keep them close
ARIZONA OVER 69 - two high powered offenses who want to run a lot of plays vs bad defenses here. typical Pac12 45-38 shootout in this one
OREGON OVER 78 - the over in this game has covered 5 of the last 6. WSU doesnt run the ball. They will be forced to air it out to keep up with an Oregon offense that should crush them for at least 45 pts
OKLAHOMA OVER 66 - both teams average a ton of plays and should push this over
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