Edwards, Busch have COT figured at Bristol
The ?Bristol Night Race? as it is most often called, puts short track racing on center stage under the lights. Bristol Motor Speedway is the shortest track on the circuit at a half-mile around, and also the highest banked at 36 degrees. This combination leads to racing closely resembling bumper cars, and the added flavor of night racing only enhances the draw. Lately though, races at this facility have drawn the ire of fans, and getting the brunt of the criticism is the COT, apparently too unbreakable for this track. Two of the drivers not complaining though are Kyle Busch and Carl Edwards, winners in four of the five COT races run at Bristol. It is warranted therefore, that both are listed among the three favorites for Saturday?s Sharpie 500, along with Tony Stewart, at 7-1 odds.
In defense of Bristol and the racing that has gone on here since the advent of the Car of Tomorrow in 2007, it has been getting better in general. In fact, since the infamous 2008 spring race in which 42 cars were able to finish the race here, that number has declined to 38 cars a year ago, and 36 this spring. Not that a race should be judged by how many cars are taken out of it, but historically that is what gave Bristol its charm. Plenty of paint was traded, bump & runs were a popular move to win races, and tempers were known to flare on many occasion.
Since things are so different at Bristol nowadays as compared to the early part of the decade when drivers like Jeff Gordon and Kurt Busch adopted this track as their own, it only makes sense to turn to the post-COT races when it comes to handicapping. In that sense, Kyle Busch is the man to beat. He boasts an average finish of 6.00 in the last five Bristol races, with two wins and an additional Top 5. One of those trips to Victory Lane came in March. Busch easily paces the field in COT-laps led here as well, with 832. next in line in that stat is Tony Stewart, and hence the reason he is among the three most beloved drivers in the eyes of oddsmakers. He has led 524 laps in the last five races, but has been unable to capitalize, averaging just a 15.6 finish with one Top 5. Carl Edwards has two wins, including last August, and an average of 9.0 with 266 laps led.
Some of the other drivers that have fared well in the new car at BMS are Clint Bowyer (20-1 odds), second in average finish at 6.8, Jeff Gordon (8-1 odds, 8.4 avg. fin.), and Dale Earnhardt, Jr. (25-1 odds, 9.8 af). Jeff Burton (30-1) has done well for himself too, capturing the only other COT-win at Bristol despite leading for just two laps overall in since ?07.
If you go back and look at career numbers at Bristol, which again, I wouldn?t advise, you?ll find names like Kevin Harvick, Jeff Gordon, and Kyle Busch among the most prolific drivers. Harvick owns the best career average finish of any active driver at Bristol (10.8) with a win and nine Top 5?s in 17 starts. Gordon & Kurt Busch share the lead in checkered flags, with five apiece. Gordon has also been an incredible qualifier here as well, with an average starting spot of 5.5 in his 33 prior starts.
Of course, for all of the good numbers, there are drivers who cringe just at the mention of Bristol. One of those guys has to be Jimmie Johnson, who has never won here in 15 career starts. Only Michigan?s Victory Lane has been more unfamiliar (0 for 16). His average finish at Brisol is also just 16.4. He is not by himself though, as there are several top series Chase contenders that have not scored a Top 5 in their COT starts. On that list along with their average finish since ?07 at BMS is Kurt Busch (14.6), Ryan Newman & Juan Montoya (18.4), David Reutimann (19.0), Matt Kenseth (20.4), and Brian Vickers (25.8). Between the six drivers, there has been 30 COT starts. Also on the fade list of late at Bristol are David Ragan, Martin Truex, and Jamie McMurray, all averaging less than 24th here since ?07.
Brian Vickers is the series? most recent winner as he picked up a key victory last Sunday at Michigan. Besides being his first win of the year, he was able to climb to within 12 points of 12th place Mark Martin. Of course, 12th place is the final Chase position, so Vickers is clearly now a contender. He needs nothing more than to shake his trend of struggling at Bristol. Martin by the way, has only run one race in the COT at this track, and placed 6th in April?s Food City 500. Clint Bowyer is 14th, 58 points behind Martin, while Kyle Busch and David Reutimann, the only other contenders, trail by 70 & 188 points respectively. The top spot remains unchanged with Tony Stewart pacing the field, 284 points ahead of Jeff Gordon, who managed to overtake teammate Jimmie Johnson last week for second, when Johnson again gambled and lost on fuel mileage, spoling a potential winning run.
Qualifying at Bristol used to be more critical, with only five of the last 97 winners overall here having come from outside the top 20. However, four of those have all come in the last decade. Only two of the last 13 winners started in the Top 3. This week?s lineup will be set starting on Friday at 3:40 PM. In terms of practice speeds, that hasn?t proven all that predictive of success either, as the average Happy Hour rank of the last nine winners is 10.3. The winner usually gets out front and is able to stay out trouble. The Sharpie 500 green flag is scheduled to wave on Saturday night at around 7:43 PM ET.
The ?Bristol Night Race? as it is most often called, puts short track racing on center stage under the lights. Bristol Motor Speedway is the shortest track on the circuit at a half-mile around, and also the highest banked at 36 degrees. This combination leads to racing closely resembling bumper cars, and the added flavor of night racing only enhances the draw. Lately though, races at this facility have drawn the ire of fans, and getting the brunt of the criticism is the COT, apparently too unbreakable for this track. Two of the drivers not complaining though are Kyle Busch and Carl Edwards, winners in four of the five COT races run at Bristol. It is warranted therefore, that both are listed among the three favorites for Saturday?s Sharpie 500, along with Tony Stewart, at 7-1 odds.
In defense of Bristol and the racing that has gone on here since the advent of the Car of Tomorrow in 2007, it has been getting better in general. In fact, since the infamous 2008 spring race in which 42 cars were able to finish the race here, that number has declined to 38 cars a year ago, and 36 this spring. Not that a race should be judged by how many cars are taken out of it, but historically that is what gave Bristol its charm. Plenty of paint was traded, bump & runs were a popular move to win races, and tempers were known to flare on many occasion.
Since things are so different at Bristol nowadays as compared to the early part of the decade when drivers like Jeff Gordon and Kurt Busch adopted this track as their own, it only makes sense to turn to the post-COT races when it comes to handicapping. In that sense, Kyle Busch is the man to beat. He boasts an average finish of 6.00 in the last five Bristol races, with two wins and an additional Top 5. One of those trips to Victory Lane came in March. Busch easily paces the field in COT-laps led here as well, with 832. next in line in that stat is Tony Stewart, and hence the reason he is among the three most beloved drivers in the eyes of oddsmakers. He has led 524 laps in the last five races, but has been unable to capitalize, averaging just a 15.6 finish with one Top 5. Carl Edwards has two wins, including last August, and an average of 9.0 with 266 laps led.
Some of the other drivers that have fared well in the new car at BMS are Clint Bowyer (20-1 odds), second in average finish at 6.8, Jeff Gordon (8-1 odds, 8.4 avg. fin.), and Dale Earnhardt, Jr. (25-1 odds, 9.8 af). Jeff Burton (30-1) has done well for himself too, capturing the only other COT-win at Bristol despite leading for just two laps overall in since ?07.
If you go back and look at career numbers at Bristol, which again, I wouldn?t advise, you?ll find names like Kevin Harvick, Jeff Gordon, and Kyle Busch among the most prolific drivers. Harvick owns the best career average finish of any active driver at Bristol (10.8) with a win and nine Top 5?s in 17 starts. Gordon & Kurt Busch share the lead in checkered flags, with five apiece. Gordon has also been an incredible qualifier here as well, with an average starting spot of 5.5 in his 33 prior starts.
Of course, for all of the good numbers, there are drivers who cringe just at the mention of Bristol. One of those guys has to be Jimmie Johnson, who has never won here in 15 career starts. Only Michigan?s Victory Lane has been more unfamiliar (0 for 16). His average finish at Brisol is also just 16.4. He is not by himself though, as there are several top series Chase contenders that have not scored a Top 5 in their COT starts. On that list along with their average finish since ?07 at BMS is Kurt Busch (14.6), Ryan Newman & Juan Montoya (18.4), David Reutimann (19.0), Matt Kenseth (20.4), and Brian Vickers (25.8). Between the six drivers, there has been 30 COT starts. Also on the fade list of late at Bristol are David Ragan, Martin Truex, and Jamie McMurray, all averaging less than 24th here since ?07.
Brian Vickers is the series? most recent winner as he picked up a key victory last Sunday at Michigan. Besides being his first win of the year, he was able to climb to within 12 points of 12th place Mark Martin. Of course, 12th place is the final Chase position, so Vickers is clearly now a contender. He needs nothing more than to shake his trend of struggling at Bristol. Martin by the way, has only run one race in the COT at this track, and placed 6th in April?s Food City 500. Clint Bowyer is 14th, 58 points behind Martin, while Kyle Busch and David Reutimann, the only other contenders, trail by 70 & 188 points respectively. The top spot remains unchanged with Tony Stewart pacing the field, 284 points ahead of Jeff Gordon, who managed to overtake teammate Jimmie Johnson last week for second, when Johnson again gambled and lost on fuel mileage, spoling a potential winning run.
Qualifying at Bristol used to be more critical, with only five of the last 97 winners overall here having come from outside the top 20. However, four of those have all come in the last decade. Only two of the last 13 winners started in the Top 3. This week?s lineup will be set starting on Friday at 3:40 PM. In terms of practice speeds, that hasn?t proven all that predictive of success either, as the average Happy Hour rank of the last nine winners is 10.3. The winner usually gets out front and is able to stay out trouble. The Sharpie 500 green flag is scheduled to wave on Saturday night at around 7:43 PM ET.
