Edwards looks due for win at Michigan
With the top four in the current points standings being members of or having some relationship to Hendrick Motorsports, the Sprint Cup series heads to Michigan International Speedway for the running of the Lifelock 400 on Sunday. This should be good news to the other teams, particularly the Roush and Penske Racing teams, as they are the ones who have enjoyed more success at this track. Still, that hasn?t stopped Vegas oddsmakers from installing Hendrick?s Jimmie Johnson as the favorite at 9-2 odds. Keep in mind, Johnson has never won at MIS. By all rights, it is Carl Edwards who is the man to beat. He?s won twice here, including last August, owns the best average finish at the track, and finished second last week at Pocono.
The Lifelock 400 will be the first of two season races around the 2-mile oval in Brooklyn, Michigan. Considering that the other event will be just two short months from now, both of the races figure to have a big impact on the point standings as the series moves closer and closer to the cutoff point in the ?Chase for the Cup?. Currently, Tony Stewart leads the standings by 71 points over Jeff Gordon. Stewart picked up his first point series win as owner/driver for Stewart/Haas Racing last week at Pocono, gambling successfully late on fuel mileage. He is listed at 6-1 for Sunday?s race, just behind favorite Jimmie Johnson and Kyle Busch (5-1). Ironically, neither of those top two own a MIS win. In fact, the active driver with the most checkered flags at this track is Bill Elliott, with seven, but you?ll find him among the FIELD bets at 40-1.
Getting back to the standings, in the key 12th place cutoff position you?ll find Denny Hamlin, who dropped five spots after his struggles last week at Pocono. He leads Mark Martin by a single point for that spot. Carl Edwards was the big gainer from last week?s results, climbing from 11th to 6th. A bit further back, its looking more and more like this will be a Chase season minus regulars Dale Earnhardt, Jr. (20th) and Kevin Harvick (26th). Junior is actually the defending champion of this race, but doesn?t appear capable of winning anytime soon.
When looking at the potential contenders for Sunday, Carl Edwards is the top dog. He is at the top of the list in terms of career average finish (6.6), and average finish over the last three years (6.7). In his last six starts, he has won twice and led 225 total laps, best on the circuit. Matt Kenseth should also be given some serious consideration as well, as he is the only other driver with an average career MIS finish of less than 10th (9.1), and leads the field with four Top 5 finishes in the last six races. Elsewhere, Dale, Jr. and Kevin Harvick boast some recent success here, and Jeff Gordon owns some strong career numbers, but beyond that the field figures to be very balanced.
Among the drivers that have struggled recently at Michigan are David Reutimann, Kurt Busch, Mark Martin, Clint Bowyer, and Ryan Newman, all with average finishes of 20th or worse in the last three years. However, Reutimann, Busch, and Newman have come on strong this season and currently occupy Chase eligible spots in the standings, so fading them might not be the wisest of moves this week. Martin owns four career wins and is running somewhat well of late too so he could surprise. Bowyer seems to be the only one who combines recent struggles with MIS hardships, so be sure to target him on your fade list. His teammates Jeff Burton (19.5 avg. since ?06) and Kevin Harvick might also make that list as well, since their seasons looked much brighter back in April too and the Richard Childress team has had few answers since for their woes.
Michigan International Speedway is a 2-mile raceway known for its wide surface, which promotes three, and even sometimes four wide, racing. It is very similar to California Speedway, site of this season?s second race won by Matt Kenseth, who held off the trio of Jeff Gordon, Kyle Busch, and Greg Biffle. Expect all four of those guys to be among the frontrunners at various times on Sunday. The events at Michigan have historically been run very clean and fast, as the 400-mile jaunt around this track typically ends up short of three hours. In fact, in the August 2007 race won by Busch, the official race time was 2:37:45, despite the fact that there were eight caution flags and the race went three laps overtime. That event set a track record, with 41 cars still running at the finish. The COT surely had something to do with that.
Sometimes, the winner at Michigan is determined through pit stop and strategy execution, while at other times it is pure horsepower that gets it done. Most often it simply depends upon the timing of the cautions in the race, and the critical late lap pit decisions made. In looking at past winners, you?ll find seven different winners in the last eight events, including four for team Roush. In fact, extending that look back to 14 races, Roush still owns half of the trips to Victory Lane.
Ford cars have enjoyed the most success historically at MIS, with 30 wins in the last 49 events. However, Dodge has also stepped up of late, winning six of the last 15 starts. In fact, between Ford and Dodge, you?ll find the last 14 of the last 15 winners. Still, if that stretch is to end anytime, it could be this weekend, as Chevrolet, behind mostly the efforts of Hendrick Motorsports, has been the premiere manufacturer in 2009. Qualifying has proven important historically, with 57% of the modern era winners coming from the first two starting rows, however, six of the last nine winners, including Edwards last August, started outside the Top 10. No one has started worse than 28th and won though. Qualifying for this race is scheduled for 3:10 PM ET on Friday. The green flag for the race is set to drop at 2:10 PM ET on Sunday.
With the top four in the current points standings being members of or having some relationship to Hendrick Motorsports, the Sprint Cup series heads to Michigan International Speedway for the running of the Lifelock 400 on Sunday. This should be good news to the other teams, particularly the Roush and Penske Racing teams, as they are the ones who have enjoyed more success at this track. Still, that hasn?t stopped Vegas oddsmakers from installing Hendrick?s Jimmie Johnson as the favorite at 9-2 odds. Keep in mind, Johnson has never won at MIS. By all rights, it is Carl Edwards who is the man to beat. He?s won twice here, including last August, owns the best average finish at the track, and finished second last week at Pocono.
The Lifelock 400 will be the first of two season races around the 2-mile oval in Brooklyn, Michigan. Considering that the other event will be just two short months from now, both of the races figure to have a big impact on the point standings as the series moves closer and closer to the cutoff point in the ?Chase for the Cup?. Currently, Tony Stewart leads the standings by 71 points over Jeff Gordon. Stewart picked up his first point series win as owner/driver for Stewart/Haas Racing last week at Pocono, gambling successfully late on fuel mileage. He is listed at 6-1 for Sunday?s race, just behind favorite Jimmie Johnson and Kyle Busch (5-1). Ironically, neither of those top two own a MIS win. In fact, the active driver with the most checkered flags at this track is Bill Elliott, with seven, but you?ll find him among the FIELD bets at 40-1.
Getting back to the standings, in the key 12th place cutoff position you?ll find Denny Hamlin, who dropped five spots after his struggles last week at Pocono. He leads Mark Martin by a single point for that spot. Carl Edwards was the big gainer from last week?s results, climbing from 11th to 6th. A bit further back, its looking more and more like this will be a Chase season minus regulars Dale Earnhardt, Jr. (20th) and Kevin Harvick (26th). Junior is actually the defending champion of this race, but doesn?t appear capable of winning anytime soon.
When looking at the potential contenders for Sunday, Carl Edwards is the top dog. He is at the top of the list in terms of career average finish (6.6), and average finish over the last three years (6.7). In his last six starts, he has won twice and led 225 total laps, best on the circuit. Matt Kenseth should also be given some serious consideration as well, as he is the only other driver with an average career MIS finish of less than 10th (9.1), and leads the field with four Top 5 finishes in the last six races. Elsewhere, Dale, Jr. and Kevin Harvick boast some recent success here, and Jeff Gordon owns some strong career numbers, but beyond that the field figures to be very balanced.
Among the drivers that have struggled recently at Michigan are David Reutimann, Kurt Busch, Mark Martin, Clint Bowyer, and Ryan Newman, all with average finishes of 20th or worse in the last three years. However, Reutimann, Busch, and Newman have come on strong this season and currently occupy Chase eligible spots in the standings, so fading them might not be the wisest of moves this week. Martin owns four career wins and is running somewhat well of late too so he could surprise. Bowyer seems to be the only one who combines recent struggles with MIS hardships, so be sure to target him on your fade list. His teammates Jeff Burton (19.5 avg. since ?06) and Kevin Harvick might also make that list as well, since their seasons looked much brighter back in April too and the Richard Childress team has had few answers since for their woes.
Michigan International Speedway is a 2-mile raceway known for its wide surface, which promotes three, and even sometimes four wide, racing. It is very similar to California Speedway, site of this season?s second race won by Matt Kenseth, who held off the trio of Jeff Gordon, Kyle Busch, and Greg Biffle. Expect all four of those guys to be among the frontrunners at various times on Sunday. The events at Michigan have historically been run very clean and fast, as the 400-mile jaunt around this track typically ends up short of three hours. In fact, in the August 2007 race won by Busch, the official race time was 2:37:45, despite the fact that there were eight caution flags and the race went three laps overtime. That event set a track record, with 41 cars still running at the finish. The COT surely had something to do with that.
Sometimes, the winner at Michigan is determined through pit stop and strategy execution, while at other times it is pure horsepower that gets it done. Most often it simply depends upon the timing of the cautions in the race, and the critical late lap pit decisions made. In looking at past winners, you?ll find seven different winners in the last eight events, including four for team Roush. In fact, extending that look back to 14 races, Roush still owns half of the trips to Victory Lane.
Ford cars have enjoyed the most success historically at MIS, with 30 wins in the last 49 events. However, Dodge has also stepped up of late, winning six of the last 15 starts. In fact, between Ford and Dodge, you?ll find the last 14 of the last 15 winners. Still, if that stretch is to end anytime, it could be this weekend, as Chevrolet, behind mostly the efforts of Hendrick Motorsports, has been the premiere manufacturer in 2009. Qualifying has proven important historically, with 57% of the modern era winners coming from the first two starting rows, however, six of the last nine winners, including Edwards last August, started outside the Top 10. No one has started worse than 28th and won though. Qualifying for this race is scheduled for 3:10 PM ET on Friday. The green flag for the race is set to drop at 2:10 PM ET on Sunday.
