Emerald Bowl - Scout Inc's take

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Belly of the Beast
Florida State Offense vs. UCLA Defense
It has been yet another dismal season for the Florida State offense. Offensive coordinator Jeff Bowden was not a fan favorite heading into the season and his unit's lack of production through the season forced him step down as offensive coordinator.

Florida State vs. UCLA
When: Dec. 27, 8 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Where: San Francisco

The offensive line has been the biggest problem area, as it has failed to open consistent running lanes and it also has surrendered 25 sacks this season. Florida State has essentially abandoned a running game that ranks 103rd nationally, despite the presence of two talented running backs in Lorenzo Booker and Antone Smith. The quarterback position has been a problem as well this season. At this point it is still not clear who will start the game for the Seminoles against UCLA. Drew Weatherford started the season then went down with an injury and Xavier Lee took over for a while. Neither has been effective for any length of time, as the two quarterbacks have combined to throw 15 interceptions on the season.

The Seminoles will have their work cut out for them against a tough UCLA defense that is coming off a monster performance in the win over USC. The key battle will be up front, as the small but athletic Bruins front should present lots of problems thanks to their aggressive approach. The biggest concern will be protecting the Seminole quarterback from a viscous UCLA pass rush that is led by DEs Bruce Davis and Justin Hickman, who have combined for 25 sacks and 35.5 tackles-for loss.

It will be a tough task, but Florida State will need to try and establish a run game. Florida State can not abandon the run game and allow UCLA's two defensive ends to pin their ears back and rush the passer. The Seminoles have a clear size advantage on the right side of their line with center John Frady, guard Cory Niblock, and tackle Shannon Boatman. The Bruins secondary is very aggressive in run support. The Bruins two starting safeties Chris Horton and Dennis Keyes lead the team in tackles. This will create another obstacle for the Seminoles run game. However, if Florida State can give their quarterback some time and get some consistent throws they could be able to make some plays downfield.

WR Greg Carr presents the biggest threat in the vertical passing game. At 6-foot-6 Carr can cause some match-up problems for the UCLA secondary, particularly versus Bruins' 5-foot-10 cornerback Trey Brown. Florida State should also look to get their young but talented tight ends in the mix. True Freshman Brandon Warren, who has 27 catches, could help to keep the safeties occupied and limit help on the perimeter.

UCLA Offense vs. Florida State Defense
UCLA enters the game ranked 74th in rushing, 61st in passing, 76th in total offense, and 70th in scoring offense. The quarterback position has been a problem for UCLA this season. Ben Olson started the year but suffered a knee injury five weeks into the season. Olson has experience, good size and arm strength. However, expect the Bruins to stick with Pat Cowan following his gutsy performance in the USC victory. Cowan is completing only 54.2-percent of his passes and has thrown nine touchdowns and seven interceptions. He has shown good leadership and toughness in the Bruins' stretch run and he will need to give that type of effort for the Bruins to pull off the bowl victory.

The key to UCLA's success on offense is versatility of running back Chris Markey. He leads the team in rushing with 963 yards and is also the team's leader in receptions. It will be tough for the Bruins to run the ball outside versus a talented and fast Seminole front-seven, led by linebackers Buster Davis, Geno Hayes, and Lawrence Timmons. After all, Florida State enters the game with the nation's eighth-ranked run defense. However, the Seminoles front four, with the exception of defensive tackle Letroy Guion, does not have great size. UCLA could look to grind out tough yards by attacking straight ahead, especially behind strong guard and tackle Shannon Tevaga and Aleksey Lanis.

Cowan will need to be smart with the ball for UCLA to pull off the win in this game. He will need to manage the offense and make plays when they are available. UCLA has limited talent at wide receiver. Junior Marcus Everett has a team leading five touchdown receptions and is a physical receiver. Senior WR Junior Taylor has 26 grabs and two touchdowns, while junior WR Brandon Breazell adds some big-play ability with his 15.6-yard average per catch. While the Bruins do not have any clear advantages at the receiver position, they can work the ball underneath to Markey and tight end Logan Paulsen. Some screens and draws could be other ways UCLA could try and get the ball in Markey's hands and try slow down the Seminole defense.

Special Teams
Florida State PK Gary Cismesia is 11-of-17 on field goal attempts this season. He has struggled down the stretch and has not hit a field goal attempt since the Virginia game, going 0-for-4 in the Seminoles last three games. Sophomore Gano Graham handles the kickoffs and punting duties. He has kicked-off 59 times and produced 21 touchbacks. He is averaging 41 yards-per-punt. Senior Chris Davis handles the punt returns and is averaging 8.6 yards per return. Joslin Shaw and corner Michael Ray Garvin handle kickoffs. Garvin has fielded the most kicks and is averaging 23.7 yards per return. The coverage units have been a problem area for Florida State this season, as it ranks 113th nationally in kickoff coverage and 110th in punt coverage.

UCLA could help their offense with good field position if it produces returns versus Florida States porous coverage units. True freshman Terrence Austin has handles the majority of the punt returns and is averaging 13.8 yards per return. Wide receiver Jeremy McGee and running back Derrick Williams return kicks. Williams is averaging 24.1 yards per return on eight returns.

UCLA senior Justin Medlock has good leg strength and accuracy as a field goal kicker. Medlock is 26-of-30 on field goal attempts and he nailed two key field goals in the win over USC. Aaron Perez handles the punting and he is averaging 42.3 yards per attempt.

Matchups
? Florida State OTs Shannon Boatman and Mario Henderson vs. UCLA DEs Justin Hickman and Bruce Davis
? Florida State WR Greg Carr vs. UCLA CB Trey Brown
? UCLA K Justin Medlock vs. Florida State K Gary Cismesia

Scouts' Edge
Fans of low-scoring, defensive struggles make sure to tune into this year's Emerald Bowl. Coach Bobby Bowden is one of the deans of the coaching fraternity, but is struggling through one of his toughest seasons. Conversely, UCLA head coach Karl Dorrell and defensive coordinator DeWayne Walker are the talk of the college football world after the shocking upset victory over USC. In the end we expect the Bruins will ride the wave of momentum into the Emerald Bowl and make Florida State's first ever trip to Northern California a disappointing one.

Prediction: Bruins 20, Seminoles 13
 
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