enjoy hedge conversations

[tig3rs]

here's an unusual one...

11/28/11 3:32pm $51.41 $303.89 Pending 7 Team Teaser (ties win) Teaser tw 7?fb & 5?bk
Win 11/28/11 7:00pm College Basketball 742 Louisville -6 * vs Long Beach State
Win 11/28/11 7:00pm College Basketball 744 Kent State -6? * vs UL Lafayette
Win 11/28/11 10:00pm College Basketball 752 Stanford -13? * vs Pacific
Win 11/28/11 10:30pm College Basketball 758 Saint Mary's CA -5? * vs Weber State
Pending 12/2/11 8:00pm College Football 308 Oregon -24 * vs UCLA
Pending 12/3/11 12:00pm College Football 340 Houston U -6 * vs Southern Mississippi
Pending 12/3/11 4:00pm College Football 342 LSU -5? * vs Georgia

not a big one, but still a good opportunity with noon, afternoon, and a night game. :toast:

comments?

 

[Trizzle]

too many open games left to hedge right now. Need to win another two then you can hedge.

 

[tig3rs]

i didn't mean hedge the whole thing... there's a 12:00 game, a 4:00, and an 8:00... chances to play the other side on each or work together some middles or parlays.
want to hear the different takes on how people would play it, regardless of how small it is. it's a fun exercise.

 

[Trizzle]

I understand. But from a statisticians standpoint, there is no hedge opportunity available now (except to break dead even). You have three remaining events with two possible outcomes per event. That allows for total of 6 different possible outcomes.

Since you already have a bet on one of the 6 possible outcomes (oregon, houston, lsu), you could make 5 additional 3 team parlay bets on the 5 other possible outcomes. If you get 6 to 1 odds on these 5 other 3 team parlay bets, and bet each one for 50 dollars, you could guarantee yourself to break even on the whole thing. No matter which of the 6 outcomes actually happens you will win 300 and lose 300.

Or to be specific, if your original bet wins, you would profit $2.48 (303.89 won on 301.41 wagered). If any of the other 5 outcomes occurs you would lose $1.41(300.00 won on 301.41 wagered).

 

[tig3rs]

these are teased games...

 

[LetsMakeMoney]

it's only 300 bucks,let it play out :shrug: I could understand if it was in the 1000s

 

[tig3rs]

it's only 300 bucks,let it play out :shrug: I could understand if it was in the 1000s

only brought it up for conversation sake. say it was $500 to win $3k...

parlays are simple, but wanted to hear people's thoughts on the teases. i thought having the 3 separate game times and the 7.5pt tease would produce some interesting suggestions.

guess i'm only going to get shrugs, though, since in reality it's only $300?

 

[Trizzle]

Ok, here goes another try.

If you want to hedge, start with the first game, play Southern Miss + 13 for 50 bucks and you have eliminated all risk but still have a 6 or 7 point middle where you could win both --S. miss +13 and Houst -6 --and your teaser is still alive. If Houston does not cover the 6 you broke even.

If teaser is still alive you can do the same thing on the 4:00 game. If you did not hit the middle on the noon game you lost 50 bucks but teaser is alive. That reduces your potential net winnings but thats why it is called a "hedge".

Same thing as above for night game.