We like Auburn over LSU this week because of its defense and running game. But it's also nice to know the home team in this series has won each of the last four contests comfortably. We're passing on two other attractive matches: Maryland at West Virginia and Florida at Tennessee, feeling there's much to learn from watching these games at this stage of the season.
This week's best bets include Auburn, North Carolina State, and TCU. Like Auburn, both N.C. State and TCU have had today's games circled for months. We liked Southern Miss to hold off Cal, but with the game postponed due to Ivan, we'll reserve judgment.
Saturday
Kentucky -1 vs. Indiana: On the surface this seems like a mismatch. Kentucky is a middle of the road SEC team facing a lowly Big Ten team. Granted the Hoosiers pulled a surprise at Oregon last Saturday, but it looked more like Oregon wasn't ready and showed up flat. Now Kentucky has been warned, and they will be prepared. Rich Brooks is hearing the boo-birds after the 28-0 loss to Louisville (no sin), and knows this is a game the Wildcats absolutely have to win. With 13 days to get ready and a road game at Florida coming up next, Kentucky will be all business in this one.
The pick: Kentucky.
Georgia -18? vs. Marshall: Got to hand it to Marshall for coming into Ohio State and coming this close to stealing one like they did at Kansas State last year. But there's no way they can come in with that kind of effort here against the Bulldogs. The emotion has been drained out of them, while Georgia will be licking their chops after barely beating South Carolina. If Georgia is as good as we all think they are, we should see a more explosive effort here against a team that won't put up much of a fight.
The pick: Georgia.
Syracuse +2 vs. Cincinnati: There's a lot riding on this one for Paul Pasqualoni and the Orange. After receiving a "vote of confidence" at the end of last season, then getting humiliated 51-0 in the opener at Purdue, they're calling for Pasqualoni's head in upstate New York. The Orangemen, however, don't lose very often in the dome, and at the very least, play a lot braver.
The Bearcats just won their biggest game of the season. Beating the Miami of Ohio was like getting a thorn out of their side after losing to them three straight years. They've been celebrating all week, which should set things up for Syracuse. But the Orange are going to have to better than the mediocre offensive effort they had against Buffalo last week if they can turn their season around.
The pick: Syracuse.
N.C. State +1? vs. Ohio State: Philip Rivers is gone, but the sting of last year's triple-overtime loss at Ohio State sure isn't. So much so that Chuck Amato scheduled an off week last Saturday to prepare for the Buckeyes, which means he's been getting ready for them since July. T.A. McClendon is also back to pound the OSU line. Ohio State showed grit coming back late to beat Marshall, but the punch wasn't there. Had they not made that game-winning 55-yard kick last Saturday, the home team might be favored here. This is one we've been waiting for.
The pick: N.C. State (best bet).
Auburn pick 'em vs. LSU: With rain expected, Auburn's great running game and exceptional defensive front seven should prevail. LSU might be the co-national champion, but they sure didn't look like one in the drizzle at home against Oregon State. The Beavers dominated the Tigers the entire game and only a semi-prevent defense allowed LSU to tie the game late and win in OT. Auburn hasn't played a quality opponent yet, but looked very good with a 43-0 lead in the fourth quarter last week against Mississippi State. One other thing: this series has a history of being won by the home team.
The pick: Auburn (best bet).
UAB +24 at Florida State: Here's another game that might be played in the rain. UAB is a lot better than people think, and FSU might be a lot worse. Last year on back-to-back weekends, UAB lost 27-24 at BCS-bound TCU and 16-12 at Georgia, after leading for much of the Georgia game. This year's version of the Blazers is better, with experience returning everywhere. UAB has had an extra week to get ready for this one and looked very sharp beating Baylor 56-14 in its opener. Florida State better be ready.
The pick: UAB
Rice + 1? vs. Hawaii: When Rice upset Houston in its home opener two weeks ago, it surprised a lot of people, including us. But a win at home Saturday over Hawaii won't be a shocker. Ken Hatfield turned this team around halfway through last season and the defense has been playing great ever since. Holding Houston's Kevin Kolb down gives us confidence they can do the same against the Warriors' Timmy Chang. Hawaii coach June Jones hasn't been able to get anywhere near the same type of performance out of his team on the road as he does at home. This one is a long way from Hawaii.
The pick: Rice.
Arizona State vs. Iowa (Pick 'em): This is a big deal for the Sun Devils. Expect them to be sky high for the visitors from Iowa. Last week QB Andrew Walter looked like the quarterback we saw two seasons ago. Despite a slew of dropped passes in the first half at Northwestern, Walter still put together some great numbers in the 30-21 victory. Iowa looked particularly suspect on offense, especially running the ball, in its 17-10 win over Iowa State. Besides, the Hawkeyes might be thinking about Michigan (the following week).
The pick: Arizona State.
Oklahoma -28 vs. Oregon: Mike Belotti's Ducks have been defense-free the last few seasons, and last week's loss at home to Indiana has to be embarrassing. Visiting Oklahoma is no way to restore your pride. Not only was the Oregon defense bad, but so were its special teams, allowing a kickoff return for a TD. In case you hadn't heard, the Sooners have a pretty good return game themselves. Sure Oregon will move the ball. They might even score. But this looks too easy for Oklahoma, which should win again by six touchdowns.
The pick: Oklahoma (best bet).
TCU +6 at Texas Tech: If this figures to be a shootout, TCU has the faster guns and superior offense. TCU's Reggie Harrell, Cory Rodgers and Michael DePriest are as talented as any three receivers you'll find anywhere, including Cal. Tye Gunn and Brandon Hassel have split time at quarterback again this year for TCU and both have been very effective. Texas Tech, on the other hand, keeps racking up the passing yards but is having a tough time scoring. They only managed 28 and 27 against SMU (which TCU beat 44-0 last week) and New Mexico. What this might come down to is this: TCU is a proven road warrior. They stopped South Florida's home winning streak last year, and won five of six road games last season. The Red Raiders are still smarting from their last second loss to New Mexico, a game they gave away. This one looks like the wrong team's favored.
The pick: TCU (best bet).
Passing thoughts
That wasn't last year's Iowa State team that showed up to play Iowa last week. The question is: Can they bring that kind of effort again this week against a tough Northern Illinois squad? ? Virginia Tech likes to crush the little guys. Duke might not be that little, but they are hurting. Look out ? Mississippi found themselves a quarterback in the second half during their loss at Alabama. Sophomore QB Ethan Flatt looked very sharp throwing into the teeth of the 'Bama defense, especially when they knew he had to throw. His exceptional poise got him promoted to the starting role this week and he just might be a worthy replacement for Manning ? Pitt is very young and is trying to shore up its bullfighter defense against the running game this year. Nebraska showed a power running game last week despite the move to the West Coast offense, but also displayed a very unstable quarterback situation. If Nebraska loses again this week, new coach Bill Callahan shouldn't open the Sunday papers ? Clemson lost a heartbreaker to Georgia Tech last week after it looked like they had the game salted away. Now they travel into College Station and face a hungry Texas A&M team. Watch out for the letdown ? Talk about being on the hot seat! Washington's Keith Gilbertson was probably the happiest man in the state after Fresno toyed with Kansas State last Saturday. The week before they beat up Gilbertson's Huskies, at Washington. This week the Huskies are home again, against UCLA, in a game rated a toss-up. If Washington loses, the rest of the year may be lost, too ? Maryland a touchdown underdog at West Virginia sounds like too much ?
Last Week: 6-5; Season: 9-10 Best Bets: 0-3; Season: 0-5
This week's best bets include Auburn, North Carolina State, and TCU. Like Auburn, both N.C. State and TCU have had today's games circled for months. We liked Southern Miss to hold off Cal, but with the game postponed due to Ivan, we'll reserve judgment.
Saturday
Kentucky -1 vs. Indiana: On the surface this seems like a mismatch. Kentucky is a middle of the road SEC team facing a lowly Big Ten team. Granted the Hoosiers pulled a surprise at Oregon last Saturday, but it looked more like Oregon wasn't ready and showed up flat. Now Kentucky has been warned, and they will be prepared. Rich Brooks is hearing the boo-birds after the 28-0 loss to Louisville (no sin), and knows this is a game the Wildcats absolutely have to win. With 13 days to get ready and a road game at Florida coming up next, Kentucky will be all business in this one.
The pick: Kentucky.
Georgia -18? vs. Marshall: Got to hand it to Marshall for coming into Ohio State and coming this close to stealing one like they did at Kansas State last year. But there's no way they can come in with that kind of effort here against the Bulldogs. The emotion has been drained out of them, while Georgia will be licking their chops after barely beating South Carolina. If Georgia is as good as we all think they are, we should see a more explosive effort here against a team that won't put up much of a fight.
The pick: Georgia.
Syracuse +2 vs. Cincinnati: There's a lot riding on this one for Paul Pasqualoni and the Orange. After receiving a "vote of confidence" at the end of last season, then getting humiliated 51-0 in the opener at Purdue, they're calling for Pasqualoni's head in upstate New York. The Orangemen, however, don't lose very often in the dome, and at the very least, play a lot braver.
The Bearcats just won their biggest game of the season. Beating the Miami of Ohio was like getting a thorn out of their side after losing to them three straight years. They've been celebrating all week, which should set things up for Syracuse. But the Orange are going to have to better than the mediocre offensive effort they had against Buffalo last week if they can turn their season around.
The pick: Syracuse.
N.C. State +1? vs. Ohio State: Philip Rivers is gone, but the sting of last year's triple-overtime loss at Ohio State sure isn't. So much so that Chuck Amato scheduled an off week last Saturday to prepare for the Buckeyes, which means he's been getting ready for them since July. T.A. McClendon is also back to pound the OSU line. Ohio State showed grit coming back late to beat Marshall, but the punch wasn't there. Had they not made that game-winning 55-yard kick last Saturday, the home team might be favored here. This is one we've been waiting for.
The pick: N.C. State (best bet).
Auburn pick 'em vs. LSU: With rain expected, Auburn's great running game and exceptional defensive front seven should prevail. LSU might be the co-national champion, but they sure didn't look like one in the drizzle at home against Oregon State. The Beavers dominated the Tigers the entire game and only a semi-prevent defense allowed LSU to tie the game late and win in OT. Auburn hasn't played a quality opponent yet, but looked very good with a 43-0 lead in the fourth quarter last week against Mississippi State. One other thing: this series has a history of being won by the home team.
The pick: Auburn (best bet).
UAB +24 at Florida State: Here's another game that might be played in the rain. UAB is a lot better than people think, and FSU might be a lot worse. Last year on back-to-back weekends, UAB lost 27-24 at BCS-bound TCU and 16-12 at Georgia, after leading for much of the Georgia game. This year's version of the Blazers is better, with experience returning everywhere. UAB has had an extra week to get ready for this one and looked very sharp beating Baylor 56-14 in its opener. Florida State better be ready.
The pick: UAB
Rice + 1? vs. Hawaii: When Rice upset Houston in its home opener two weeks ago, it surprised a lot of people, including us. But a win at home Saturday over Hawaii won't be a shocker. Ken Hatfield turned this team around halfway through last season and the defense has been playing great ever since. Holding Houston's Kevin Kolb down gives us confidence they can do the same against the Warriors' Timmy Chang. Hawaii coach June Jones hasn't been able to get anywhere near the same type of performance out of his team on the road as he does at home. This one is a long way from Hawaii.
The pick: Rice.
Arizona State vs. Iowa (Pick 'em): This is a big deal for the Sun Devils. Expect them to be sky high for the visitors from Iowa. Last week QB Andrew Walter looked like the quarterback we saw two seasons ago. Despite a slew of dropped passes in the first half at Northwestern, Walter still put together some great numbers in the 30-21 victory. Iowa looked particularly suspect on offense, especially running the ball, in its 17-10 win over Iowa State. Besides, the Hawkeyes might be thinking about Michigan (the following week).
The pick: Arizona State.
Oklahoma -28 vs. Oregon: Mike Belotti's Ducks have been defense-free the last few seasons, and last week's loss at home to Indiana has to be embarrassing. Visiting Oklahoma is no way to restore your pride. Not only was the Oregon defense bad, but so were its special teams, allowing a kickoff return for a TD. In case you hadn't heard, the Sooners have a pretty good return game themselves. Sure Oregon will move the ball. They might even score. But this looks too easy for Oklahoma, which should win again by six touchdowns.
The pick: Oklahoma (best bet).
TCU +6 at Texas Tech: If this figures to be a shootout, TCU has the faster guns and superior offense. TCU's Reggie Harrell, Cory Rodgers and Michael DePriest are as talented as any three receivers you'll find anywhere, including Cal. Tye Gunn and Brandon Hassel have split time at quarterback again this year for TCU and both have been very effective. Texas Tech, on the other hand, keeps racking up the passing yards but is having a tough time scoring. They only managed 28 and 27 against SMU (which TCU beat 44-0 last week) and New Mexico. What this might come down to is this: TCU is a proven road warrior. They stopped South Florida's home winning streak last year, and won five of six road games last season. The Red Raiders are still smarting from their last second loss to New Mexico, a game they gave away. This one looks like the wrong team's favored.
The pick: TCU (best bet).
Passing thoughts
That wasn't last year's Iowa State team that showed up to play Iowa last week. The question is: Can they bring that kind of effort again this week against a tough Northern Illinois squad? ? Virginia Tech likes to crush the little guys. Duke might not be that little, but they are hurting. Look out ? Mississippi found themselves a quarterback in the second half during their loss at Alabama. Sophomore QB Ethan Flatt looked very sharp throwing into the teeth of the 'Bama defense, especially when they knew he had to throw. His exceptional poise got him promoted to the starting role this week and he just might be a worthy replacement for Manning ? Pitt is very young and is trying to shore up its bullfighter defense against the running game this year. Nebraska showed a power running game last week despite the move to the West Coast offense, but also displayed a very unstable quarterback situation. If Nebraska loses again this week, new coach Bill Callahan shouldn't open the Sunday papers ? Clemson lost a heartbreaker to Georgia Tech last week after it looked like they had the game salted away. Now they travel into College Station and face a hungry Texas A&M team. Watch out for the letdown ? Talk about being on the hot seat! Washington's Keith Gilbertson was probably the happiest man in the state after Fresno toyed with Kansas State last Saturday. The week before they beat up Gilbertson's Huskies, at Washington. This week the Huskies are home again, against UCLA, in a game rated a toss-up. If Washington loses, the rest of the year may be lost, too ? Maryland a touchdown underdog at West Virginia sounds like too much ?
Last Week: 6-5; Season: 9-10 Best Bets: 0-3; Season: 0-5
