fade the "public"?

[tig3rs]

hey, i know fading the public is a popular tool in football and basketball in most sharper circles, but in baseball, since it's a much lower volume game, i'm wondering who around here makes a strategy of it or if people have done it in the past that could offer any valuable insight. 3 weeks in, i've found myself on the same heavy side a few times, and on the light side a few times... haven't noted the record on them, but wouldn't be much of anything with such a small sample.


this year i started tracking games where there was 75%+ of action on a side or total. this is what i have so far: (using VegasInsider's #)

overall:
thru wk1 58.2%
thru wk2 54.8%
thru now... 54.74%

80%+ 53.5%
90%+ 1 of 2


sides:
16-20 44.44%
average price -140.7 requiring a 58.45% win rate. :nono:


totals:
over 58.5% 24-17
under 66.7% 12-6



love to hear any thoughtful qualitative and/or quantitative thoughts.

 

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Not sure I can add much to what you've written. I do think the dog prices used to be tastier. I'm a firm believer that the lines get sharper over time.

I do like the overbet Fav stat u have listed above. Definitely possible that the public locks themselves on to certain Favs.

 

[WhatsHisNuts]

I will fade the most popular plays posted on SportsInteraction's Sportsbook Home Page, but only when I think it is a solid play. I'm not going to bet against Cliff Lee just because everyone is on him, but if I see a game that looks relatively even and one side is very popular, I roll the dice and go the other way.

IMO, You have to bet dogs and you have to watch line movement.

 

[tig3rs]

this is still very curious... have yet to have a dog get 75% backing (as expected) but there have been a few -101 to -105 plays.


U 60.00%
ov 53.70%

ML -137.8 req'd w% 57.95%
actual win% 49.12%


all plays
50.00% 90%
57.14% 80%
52.94% 75%

thru wk1 58.18%
thru wk2 54.76%
thru wk3 54.03%