GL w/ Falcons play - i've seen this line rise from +3.5 and have an out where i grabbed it at +5.5 - love games like this - TouchdownJesus your opening comment was exactly what i am seeing - actually more in the 85% range on G-men - i've tried preaching the value of the home dogs to the forum - on MNF this goes double - i made a nice haul on the MNF game last week - people get so caught up in thinking teams are so much better than the others - but fail to look at the trap situation they usally fall into.
Now sure Falcons could get blown out tonight - if it happens it's just one loss over the long haul - but i love the Falcons in this spot. All i keep hearing is about Harrington, new tackles, Giants D-line going to dominate - blah blah...this game reminds me so much of yesterday's Cincy/KC game - 80%+ backed Cincy as the short 3 pt road dog. I loved KC in this spot - easy play & winner. All week that Cincy line stayed at -3 even though it was pounded heavily. That game was basically Vegas saying go ahead and take Cincy, the books will back KC all day long. The game tonight i look as very similar to this. Line now is rising because G-men is the "obvious" and "easy" play.
The thing is it's hard for teams to win on the road in a tough MNF atmosphere - i'm sure Atlanta will be rocking tonight. Everyone expects them to be blown out - like last week nobody seemed to give Bills a chance and they almost won outright. Gmen also have been shaky at times - now public sees them as this great team after 3 straight good performances. I think this game will be closer than most anticipate. I've been on the right side of so many games like this one. I'll back the home underdog Falcons in this contest.
Alot of people don't agree w/ my theories but i keep picking good spots w/ underdogs and keep winning week in and out. Good luck tonight - hope Atlanta cashes this one. If you keep taking the side on the games that look like the teams don't have a chance, good things happen. Do you think the sports books are sweating needing the Falcons to come through? No they aren't - because week in and out there are these games where 80%+ back favored teams vs. teams that have no business being in the game - yet at the end of the days, months, years - the books make out on these types of games. I always wait to play these games until near last minute because like in case of tonight's game line has risen from +3.5 to +5.5 in some places - who knows may hit +6...at the end of the year getting those extra .5, 1, 1.5, 2, or more points on games adds up to more winners...
I agree w/ you TDJesus - Gmen appear to be a big time sucker bet. For some reason i keep seing this as a 3 point game either way. Take Atlanta or pass on the game. GL 2 u.
