taoist said:
After the pre-new year's games have beaten the public into submission with most of the dogs covering...vegas switches gears...the public loves the dogs to begin the new year and...the new year usually begins with the favs covering.
I was thinking that myself. I had a hard time laying 10+ points, or even a TD on teams that are 7-4 or 6-5 because you dont know which team's gonna show up with those records. Thats why they lose 4 or 5 games. Top 10 teams IMO are worthy of laying the chalk because they're A game equals a POUNDING on whoever they are goin against. Teams like Michigan, even with their A game, probably BARELY enough to beat Nebraska by double digits.
Thats how I'm going to play these games. I'm going to ask myself, if this team plays as good a game as they have all season, is it enough to bash this team (if a fav) or enough to hang with that team (for dogs) If the answer is yes, should be a play. bottom line is I am alot less hesitant to play favorites in these games because these are the heavyweights that can deliver a K.O. Also better defenses so you dont see some of the riduculous comebacks we've seen lately. (exception of rose bowl last year) Probably no 28 points in 2:47 like UCLA the other day. When one of these powerhouses gets ahead they usually have the defense to close the game out. Not saying I expect alot of blowouts, but better teams will be playing that are more equipped to dominate games.