FBR Open
- Thread starter Whalers Rule
- Start date
Outright plays (total stake per play: 1.5pts)
Shigeki Maruyama to win 50/1 e.w. available generally
Scratching around for good prices on the people I really like to win this week and can't find any. So looking for better value plays on underrated players who has shown well here in the past. First up is Maruyama who led for so long in the Sony Open, but couldn't buy a putt in the final round. A top-30 finish in the following Buick Invitational was a decent result under the circumstances. So he shouldn't be at these odds in this form and it based primarily on his course history. But a closer look shows that he has actually scored rather well on this course, but failed dismally on Saturdays. He can play well on these types of courses and he did finish 6th in his last appearance in the other Arizona event, the Tucson Open, so there is no reason why he shouldn't be in the thick of the action at the weekend again.
Fredrik Jacobson to win 50/1 e.w. available generally
Hard to think why he should be generally at 50s rather than 33s or certainly 40s. Two starts this season have yielded two top-20 finishes, he shot 62 in the 2nd round last week to lift him up to 2nd and he stayed in the top-5 for the rest of the week until a poor final round. He is clearly a player in form and having finished in the top-10 last year, could certainly be a contender again this week.
Bernhard Langer to finish in the top-five 24/1 @ Expekt
Plugging away with Langer as these odds in no reflect his true probabilities of achieving a top-5 finish. He has had one such finish in three starts this year and played solidly last week to finish 23rd, but it is notable that he improved his leaderboard finish in every round after Thursday. That should put him in good stead for this week as he tries to right a poor final round performance in this event last year. He finished 27th, but had been 4th heading into the final round so the German, who is finally publicly revelling in his position as a Ryder Cup captain as he seeks another term, should continue his golfing renaissance this week.
Shigeki Maruyama to win 50/1 e.w. available generally
Scratching around for good prices on the people I really like to win this week and can't find any. So looking for better value plays on underrated players who has shown well here in the past. First up is Maruyama who led for so long in the Sony Open, but couldn't buy a putt in the final round. A top-30 finish in the following Buick Invitational was a decent result under the circumstances. So he shouldn't be at these odds in this form and it based primarily on his course history. But a closer look shows that he has actually scored rather well on this course, but failed dismally on Saturdays. He can play well on these types of courses and he did finish 6th in his last appearance in the other Arizona event, the Tucson Open, so there is no reason why he shouldn't be in the thick of the action at the weekend again.
Fredrik Jacobson to win 50/1 e.w. available generally
Hard to think why he should be generally at 50s rather than 33s or certainly 40s. Two starts this season have yielded two top-20 finishes, he shot 62 in the 2nd round last week to lift him up to 2nd and he stayed in the top-5 for the rest of the week until a poor final round. He is clearly a player in form and having finished in the top-10 last year, could certainly be a contender again this week.
Bernhard Langer to finish in the top-five 24/1 @ Expekt
Plugging away with Langer as these odds in no reflect his true probabilities of achieving a top-5 finish. He has had one such finish in three starts this year and played solidly last week to finish 23rd, but it is notable that he improved his leaderboard finish in every round after Thursday. That should put him in good stead for this week as he tries to right a poor final round performance in this event last year. He finished 27th, but had been 4th heading into the final round so the German, who is finally publicly revelling in his position as a Ryder Cup captain as he seeks another term, should continue his golfing renaissance this week.
Don't often post in here but always look for possible golf plays each week. Was looking this morning at OLY and noticed they have Kenny Perry at 150-1 to show (first 4 only) this week. Nobody else listed is longer than 20-1. Could this be a misquote or is Kenny injured or playing that badly right now? Seems awfully long price on a pretty good overall player. Also looking forward to the contest again this year. Had to miss last year due to time constaints after playing the previous 3 years but really enjoy participating. Thanks to Stan and Wagerweb for holding it again this year. Thanks for your replies.
Brick It was errant line--shoud have been 15/1
Was going to wait in running but got a long one to place only that may sneak in there @ GG 5 places
Ref Date/Time Tour Tournament
2906 01-02-05 11:25
USPGA FBR Open
Event Description Market Selection Price
Place Betting PO 1-5 WALDORF, Duffy 34.00
Quite like Herron selection last week that was knocked out of 21/1 to place on final putt of tourney---Duffy is another Rodney Dangerfield that slips in there frequently with 4 top 5's last year.
In fact slipped in a 5th here few years back along with a 6th 10th and was cut twice in last 5.
Was considering K Sutherland-- also at long odds but opted for Duffy's much greater place % in past years.
Was going to wait in running but got a long one to place only that may sneak in there @ GG 5 places
Ref Date/Time Tour Tournament
2906 01-02-05 11:25
USPGA FBR Open
Event Description Market Selection Price
Place Betting PO 1-5 WALDORF, Duffy 34.00
Quite like Herron selection last week that was knocked out of 21/1 to place on final putt of tourney---Duffy is another Rodney Dangerfield that slips in there frequently with 4 top 5's last year.
In fact slipped in a 5th here few years back along with a 6th 10th and was cut twice in last 5.
Was considering K Sutherland-- also at long odds but opted for Duffy's much greater place % in past years.
72 hole match-ups at 5dimes 1 unit each
TOM PERNICE JNR -110 TIM PETROVIC
LUKE DONALD -110 DAVID TOMS
BERNHARD LANGER -115 BOB ESTES
TOM PERNICE JNR -110 TIM PETROVIC
LUKE DONALD -110 DAVID TOMS
BERNHARD LANGER -115 BOB ESTES
Matchup plays (1.5pts unless stated):
Stephen Ames to beat Jonathan Kaye +102 @ Pinnacle
Opposing the defending champion at good odds considering that Ames has finished ahead of him in 13 of their last 15 common events!
(also available at Olympic and Five Dimes)
Shigeki Maruyama to beat Jonathan Kaye -110 @ Ladbrokes and BetFred
Will also oppose him with one of the outright selections. Maruyama finished a long way behind Kaye last year, but it was the only time that he had done so in the four times that they have both played in this event together. So with Kaye having last finished ahead of Maruyama in June 2004, there is good reason to expect Maruyama to win this match.
Tom Lehman to beat K.J. Choi -148 @ Pinnacle
Total mismatch and would bet more if the odds had been better. Lehman has a great history in this event, including a win in 2000, while Choi has never made the cut in three attempts. Even without Lehman's incredible run of high finishes at the moment, this is a solid play despite the odds.
(also available at Olympic and Five Dimes)
Bernhard Langer to beat Jesper Parnevik -105 @ Pinnacle
Parnevik is another former winner (1998), but he continues to struggle with his game and is missing a lot of cuts. That just doesn't compare well with Langer who has finished ahead of Parnevik in each of the last two weeks.
(also available at Expekt, Sportingbet, Sporting Odds, Olympic and Five Dimes)
Stephen Ames to beat Jonathan Kaye +102 @ Pinnacle
Opposing the defending champion at good odds considering that Ames has finished ahead of him in 13 of their last 15 common events!
(also available at Olympic and Five Dimes)
Shigeki Maruyama to beat Jonathan Kaye -110 @ Ladbrokes and BetFred
Will also oppose him with one of the outright selections. Maruyama finished a long way behind Kaye last year, but it was the only time that he had done so in the four times that they have both played in this event together. So with Kaye having last finished ahead of Maruyama in June 2004, there is good reason to expect Maruyama to win this match.
Tom Lehman to beat K.J. Choi -148 @ Pinnacle
Total mismatch and would bet more if the odds had been better. Lehman has a great history in this event, including a win in 2000, while Choi has never made the cut in three attempts. Even without Lehman's incredible run of high finishes at the moment, this is a solid play despite the odds.
(also available at Olympic and Five Dimes)
Bernhard Langer to beat Jesper Parnevik -105 @ Pinnacle
Parnevik is another former winner (1998), but he continues to struggle with his game and is missing a lot of cuts. That just doesn't compare well with Langer who has finished ahead of Parnevik in each of the last two weeks.
(also available at Expekt, Sportingbet, Sporting Odds, Olympic and Five Dimes)
OUTRIGHTS:
Charles Howell(16/1) e.w. @ Bet365
Tom Lehman(25/1) e.w. @ 5dimes
- - I need compelling reasons to pick up these markers from winning wagers in their last outings. Slashed odds only amount to understandable resignation.
Arron Oberholser(80/1) e.w. @ Bet365
- - He possesses qualities. He's tracking. http://www.golfdigest.com/newsandtour/index.ssf?/newsandtour/2004shinhan.html (11.25.04)
Bernhard Langer(100/1) e.w. @ Bet365
- - Flying well under the radar at this price vis-a-vis Captain Lehman. Immensely capable of quite a lot from what I saw in San Diego and the decades that preceded it. Serious intentions of capitalizing on some serious West Coast momentum must include rising into the Accenture Match Play from current 76th in the World Golf Ranking.
Andrew Magee(100/1) e.w. @ 5dimes
- - Played him last week for $1 e.w. at 250/1, so at least I kept my powder dry. I couldn't leave him off my card this week after I caught him saying more or less exactly what I like hearing. http://www.azcentral.com/sports/golf/05fbropen/articles/0201fbrmain0201.html
Brian Davis(125/1) e.w. @ 5dimes
- - Has made the kind of early season start I had in mind for him, punctuated by two strong closing efforts. Getting involved from the difficult final group on Thursday looks like one of the crucial hurdles this week, while I think having thousands upon thousands on hand this week works well for Brian so long as he's trying to move up on the weekend.
GL
Charles Howell(16/1) e.w. @ Bet365
Tom Lehman(25/1) e.w. @ 5dimes
- - I need compelling reasons to pick up these markers from winning wagers in their last outings. Slashed odds only amount to understandable resignation.
Arron Oberholser(80/1) e.w. @ Bet365
- - He possesses qualities. He's tracking. http://www.golfdigest.com/newsandtour/index.ssf?/newsandtour/2004shinhan.html (11.25.04)
Bernhard Langer(100/1) e.w. @ Bet365
- - Flying well under the radar at this price vis-a-vis Captain Lehman. Immensely capable of quite a lot from what I saw in San Diego and the decades that preceded it. Serious intentions of capitalizing on some serious West Coast momentum must include rising into the Accenture Match Play from current 76th in the World Golf Ranking.
Andrew Magee(100/1) e.w. @ 5dimes
- - Played him last week for $1 e.w. at 250/1, so at least I kept my powder dry. I couldn't leave him off my card this week after I caught him saying more or less exactly what I like hearing. http://www.azcentral.com/sports/golf/05fbropen/articles/0201fbrmain0201.html
Brian Davis(125/1) e.w. @ 5dimes
- - Has made the kind of early season start I had in mind for him, punctuated by two strong closing efforts. Getting involved from the difficult final group on Thursday looks like one of the crucial hurdles this week, while I think having thousands upon thousands on hand this week works well for Brian so long as he's trying to move up on the weekend.
GL
A couple 72 holes nabbed as lines dropped
Lehman -105 over Howell @ WTTS
MATCHUP 02/03 [1411] T. LEHMAN -105
Ames + 110 over Kaye @ Pinnacle
1-Feb-05 12:00pm
2-Feb-05 Future Golf - FBR Capital Open - Tournament Matc... +110 40.00 44.00
FBR Capital Open
Tournament Matchups
S. Ames vs J. Kaye
S. Ames
If writer below is not hyping the rough as most do-- accuracy could finally be adv over distance.Par 4 performance has always been a premium here.
http://www.azcentral.com/sports/golf/articles/0131fbrcourse0131.html
Lehman -105 over Howell @ WTTS
MATCHUP 02/03 [1411] T. LEHMAN -105
Ames + 110 over Kaye @ Pinnacle
1-Feb-05 12:00pm
2-Feb-05 Future Golf - FBR Capital Open - Tournament Matc... +110 40.00 44.00
FBR Capital Open
Tournament Matchups
S. Ames vs J. Kaye
S. Ames
If writer below is not hyping the rough as most do-- accuracy could finally be adv over distance.Par 4 performance has always been a premium here.
http://www.azcentral.com/sports/golf/articles/0131fbrcourse0131.html
adding a couple 72 holes 5 dimes has added
Mcgee -120 over Daly
Been waiting for them to match up Mcgee--he's been rock solid since return
Maru -105 over Kaye
Agree with Stan--the fans should like his smiling face to.
Mcgee -120 over Daly
Been waiting for them to match up Mcgee--he's been rock solid since return
Maru -105 over Kaye
Agree with Stan--the fans should like his smiling face to.
4. FBR Capital Open
4. FBR Capital Open
Win Only :
Phil Mickelson --> 10/1 Sportingbet
Charles Howell III --> 20/1 William Hill
Tom Lehman --> 25/1 William Hill
Justin Leonard --> 28/1 BetDirect
Place Only (1-5) :
Andrew Magee --> 16/1 Expekt
Jeff Sluman --> 24/1 Expekt
Each-Way 1-4 1-5 :
Tim Herron --> 66/1 BetDirect
Andrew Magee --> 100/1 Sportingbet
4. FBR Capital Open
Win Only :
Phil Mickelson --> 10/1 Sportingbet
Charles Howell III --> 20/1 William Hill
Tom Lehman --> 25/1 William Hill
Justin Leonard --> 28/1 BetDirect
Place Only (1-5) :
Andrew Magee --> 16/1 Expekt
Jeff Sluman --> 24/1 Expekt
Each-Way 1-4 1-5 :
Tim Herron --> 66/1 BetDirect
Andrew Magee --> 100/1 Sportingbet
FBR Phoenix Open
FBR Phoenix Open
Lehman Tom over DiMarco Chris --> -115 Expekt
Verplank Scott over Weir Mike --> -115 Expekt
Herron Tim over Choi K-J --> -115 Expekt
Herron T. over Maruyama S. --> +105 Gamebookers
Stewart Cink over Chris Dimarco --> -125 Sportingbet
Tom Lehman over Shigeki Maruyama --> -125 Sportingbet
FBR Phoenix Open
Lehman Tom over DiMarco Chris --> -115 Expekt
Verplank Scott over Weir Mike --> -115 Expekt
Herron Tim over Choi K-J --> -115 Expekt
Herron T. over Maruyama S. --> +105 Gamebookers
Stewart Cink over Chris Dimarco --> -125 Sportingbet
Tom Lehman over Shigeki Maruyama --> -125 Sportingbet
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Further matchup plays (1.5pts unless stated):
Andrew Magee to beat John Daly -135 @ Five Dimes
With two top-10 finishes in two starts in 2005, Magee seems to be making full use of his medical extensinon. He is certainly playing better than Daly who has finished 72nd and 75th in his last two starts and having made the last 11 cuts at Scottsdale, he could yet extend his run of top-10 finishes.
Tom Lehman to beat Jonathan Kaye -133 @ Centrebet [3pts]
Adding a third and final play against Kaye. Despite Kaye being the defending champion, Lehman has the far better record at Scottsale and it has been many years since he has played this well. Still rather suspect for the outrights market, particularly at this week's odds, but a player to side with in matchups at the moment.
Andrew Magee to beat John Daly -135 @ Five Dimes
With two top-10 finishes in two starts in 2005, Magee seems to be making full use of his medical extensinon. He is certainly playing better than Daly who has finished 72nd and 75th in his last two starts and having made the last 11 cuts at Scottsdale, he could yet extend his run of top-10 finishes.
Tom Lehman to beat Jonathan Kaye -133 @ Centrebet [3pts]
Adding a third and final play against Kaye. Despite Kaye being the defending champion, Lehman has the far better record at Scottsale and it has been many years since he has played this well. Still rather suspect for the outrights market, particularly at this week's odds, but a player to side with in matchups at the moment.
FBR Open Plays
FBR Open Plays
Usualy have some of my own thoughts but when I saw Stanley's Plays and the fact I coulld Play them I decided to go the CoatTail way.
Tom Lehman OV/Kyoung-Ju Choi-1.60
Stephen Ames OV/Jonathan Kaye-1.15
Bernhard Langer OV/Jesper Parne-1.15
Going with Ames for the Outright. Want a Play, so took a Player that could in at decent Odds.
Stephen Ames WINS FBR OPEN+40.00
Good Luck to all, let see everyone's Player on the Sunday board.
Want to try and keep my MatchUp Record, just Wins and Loses, too lazy to do anything else.
3-1 MatchUps
FBR Open Plays
Usualy have some of my own thoughts but when I saw Stanley's Plays and the fact I coulld Play them I decided to go the CoatTail way.
Tom Lehman OV/Kyoung-Ju Choi-1.60
Stephen Ames OV/Jonathan Kaye-1.15
Bernhard Langer OV/Jesper Parne-1.15
Going with Ames for the Outright. Want a Play, so took a Player that could in at decent Odds.
Stephen Ames WINS FBR OPEN+40.00
Good Luck to all, let see everyone's Player on the Sunday board.
Want to try and keep my MatchUp Record, just Wins and Loses, too lazy to do anything else.
3-1 MatchUps
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FREDERICK JACOBSON sell 2 buy 3 +3233
DAVID TOMS sell 3 buy 4 +2400
Bought 2 units of each @ WSex
DAVID TOMS sell 3 buy 4 +2400
Bought 2 units of each @ WSex
Round 1 18 Hole Spread bets
1. Van Pelt / Tanaka
Selling at 1 to be with Tanaka for 1 unit (SPortingIndex)
2. Magee / Lowery
Buying at 4 to be with Magee for 1 unit (SportingIndex)
3. Flesch/ Micheel
Selling at 1 to be with Micheel for 1 unit (SportingIndex)
4. Palmer/Hamilton
Buying at 3 to be with Palmer for 1 unit (SportingIndex)
1. Van Pelt / Tanaka
Selling at 1 to be with Tanaka for 1 unit (SPortingIndex)
2. Magee / Lowery
Buying at 4 to be with Magee for 1 unit (SportingIndex)
3. Flesch/ Micheel
Selling at 1 to be with Micheel for 1 unit (SportingIndex)
4. Palmer/Hamilton
Buying at 3 to be with Palmer for 1 unit (SportingIndex)
1st round at hollywood/wagerweb:
GIR
Allenby + 1/2 even over Leonard
historically overall Allenby better in this catregory and better last couple of years at least in this event. Price too good to pass
GIR
Allenby + 1/2 even over Leonard
historically overall Allenby better in this catregory and better last couple of years at least in this event. Price too good to pass
1st rounders
3189370 02/02/05 S 02/03/05 GAMEZ/SENDEN (1ST RND) -101 CHARLES HOWELL (1ST RND) @ 5dimes
2 pretty good barrels vs 1--line has sinced moved
Props Wagerweb/Hollywood Got several but these 3 kind of tie in.
Singh -120 (+1/2 stroke) over Mick @ Wagerweb
Sure like it better than -165 heads up @ 5dimes
Birdies or better
Lehman -105 (+1/2) over Johnson
Girs
Singh -105 (+1/2) over Lehman
3189370 02/02/05 S 02/03/05 GAMEZ/SENDEN (1ST RND) -101 CHARLES HOWELL (1ST RND) @ 5dimes
2 pretty good barrels vs 1--line has sinced moved
Props Wagerweb/Hollywood Got several but these 3 kind of tie in.
Singh -120 (+1/2 stroke) over Mick @ Wagerweb
Sure like it better than -165 heads up @ 5dimes
Birdies or better
Lehman -105 (+1/2) over Johnson
Girs
Singh -105 (+1/2) over Lehman
Well fellas, I must say this seems to be a very nice board with some guys I dont typically get to chat with, and very knowledgeable!!!! I just joined tour-tips, and here are my picks, wish me luck!!!
My units are $20
DiMarco to finish Top 5 at +500 / 1 Unit
Lehman to finish Top 5 at +500 / 1 Unit
Lehman over Choi -165 / 6 Units
Bart Bryant to finish Top 5 / 0.5 Unit
Also played the Handicap at 5 Dimes and took Bryant +11 strokes over the listed field.
According to stats I look at, he hits is straight as an arrow and that will be magnified this weekend, on top of that is playing rather well lately. He should be able to keep it in play and if he can make some putts on the bumpy greens, may contend!
Good luck all!
My units are $20
DiMarco to finish Top 5 at +500 / 1 Unit
Lehman to finish Top 5 at +500 / 1 Unit
Lehman over Choi -165 / 6 Units
Bart Bryant to finish Top 5 / 0.5 Unit
Also played the Handicap at 5 Dimes and took Bryant +11 strokes over the listed field.
According to stats I look at, he hits is straight as an arrow and that will be magnified this weekend, on top of that is playing rather well lately. He should be able to keep it in play and if he can make some putts on the bumpy greens, may contend!
Good luck all!
Addding Stephen Ames in running 1 unit e.w. top four at Paddy Power. Hit first six fairways even through seven and every body is struggling taking an early chance.
Ames 50-1
Ames 50-1
