Since the Oscar bout, I've had a pretty bad run. I vowed never to place such a high wager on a bout again, I had about 75% of my annual profits on Oscar.
Just now I placed 175% of my remaining profits on this line: Arce/Darchinyan will NOT go the full 12 rounds, -275. My concern here is that Darch's 1-punch power is overrated. It took 5 rounds of lopsided beatings to get Kirilov out, and 9 lopsided rounds to get Mijares out. I think his power is cumulative, it's not 1-punch.
That said, I think Arce is done, and is going to brawl with everything he has left, and hope for a body shot to bring this to a quick halt. Darch should be able to pound awya on Arce all night, and probably force a stoppage around 7 or 8, Arce has looked very shaky as of late by lighter punchers. Arce should stand and trade, and there is a possibility he gets a body shot or a surpirse chin shot on a tiring Vic, for him to get the KO.
I can see this going 9, but not 12, the punishment will overwhelm either guy. Then again I said that about Vasquez/Marquez 3, but I think Darch's resistance is more questionable than those two, and I think Arce is in more battle-worn than either of those two. If it goes the distance, I'm deep in the black for the first time ever, and am either temporarily retired or down to 20$ max bets. Had I seen this line coming, I would have saved all of my bets in the past few weeks and put it all on this bout.
I don't have the funds to play anything else, but good luck to those of you who do!
Just now I placed 175% of my remaining profits on this line: Arce/Darchinyan will NOT go the full 12 rounds, -275. My concern here is that Darch's 1-punch power is overrated. It took 5 rounds of lopsided beatings to get Kirilov out, and 9 lopsided rounds to get Mijares out. I think his power is cumulative, it's not 1-punch.
That said, I think Arce is done, and is going to brawl with everything he has left, and hope for a body shot to bring this to a quick halt. Darch should be able to pound awya on Arce all night, and probably force a stoppage around 7 or 8, Arce has looked very shaky as of late by lighter punchers. Arce should stand and trade, and there is a possibility he gets a body shot or a surpirse chin shot on a tiring Vic, for him to get the KO.
I can see this going 9, but not 12, the punishment will overwhelm either guy. Then again I said that about Vasquez/Marquez 3, but I think Darch's resistance is more questionable than those two, and I think Arce is in more battle-worn than either of those two. If it goes the distance, I'm deep in the black for the first time ever, and am either temporarily retired or down to 20$ max bets. Had I seen this line coming, I would have saved all of my bets in the past few weeks and put it all on this bout.
I don't have the funds to play anything else, but good luck to those of you who do!
