Final Fo

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Texas vs Syracuse



Top-seeded Texas from the South region will collide with third-seeded Syracuse of the East in the nightcap game of Final Four Saturday. Tip-off will come 30 minutes after the conclusion of the Kansas-Marquette matchup.

Most sports books are listing the Longhorns as three-point favorites, with the total at 154. Texas owns a 13-8 spread record in the favorite role, while the 'Cuse is 4-2 versus the number in the underdog outfit.


T.J. Ford and Rick Barnes have led Texas to its first Final Four appearance since 1947. (AP)
T.J. Ford (15.1 points per game) led Texas (26-6 straight up, 17-9 against the spread) past Michigan State in the South finals by scoring 19 points and dishing out 10 assists. The Longhorns captured an 85-76 win over the Spartans as 4 1/2-point favorites. The 161 combined points soared 'over' the closing 135-point total.

The 'over' is 5-1-2 in the last eight Texas games.

Rick Barnes' team has advanced to its first Final Four since 1947, becoming the lone top seed to make it to New Orleans in this Tournament. The Longhorns made it to the Big Easy via wins over UNC-Asheville, Purdue, Connecticut and Michigan State.

Texas has compiled a 2-1-1 spread mark in the Big Dance, but it is in the midst of a more impressive 14-5-2 ATS spree.

Syracuse (28-5 SU, 17-12 ATS) knocked off top-seeded Oklahoma in the East finals. The Orangemen's zone defense held the Sooners to 31 percent shooting from the field and out-rebounded them by a 40-28 count.


Syracuse has advanced to its first Final Four since 1996. (AP)
Freshman sensation Carmelo Anthony scored 20 points and grabbed 10 rebounds to lead the 'Cuse to a convincing 63-47 win as a three-point underdog. Money line players brought home plus 135 on the comeback.

The 110 combined points fell 'under' the closing 136-point total. The 'under' is 5-1 in Syracuse games in the Big East and NCAA Tournaments.

Jim Boeheim's team has won 12 of its last 13 games, compiling an 8-5 spread mark in that span.

The 'Cuse arrived in New Orleans early Wednesday night. The Crescent City was the site of Syracuse's heartbeaking loss to Indiana in the '87 finals. Keith Smart's leaning baseline jumper ended the Orangemen's title hopes in Rony Seikaly's senior campaign.

Boeheim also led the 'Cuse to the '96 Finals, where it lost to Kentucky.


Look for the Orangemen to stick with their 2-3 matchup zone against the Longhorns. This alignment has been especially effective because of the height and quickness of Anthony and Kueth Duany, who can quickly get to spot-up shooters on the wings and in the corners.

Texas has several zone-busters who can stroke it from beyond the arc. Surprisingly, Ford is not much of a perimeter shooter, as he connected on merely 15-of-56 (27%) 3-point attemtps this year. However, Brandon Mouton (14.4 PPG) buried 42-of-100 attempts from long range, while Sydmill Harris (37-of-104, 36%) and Brian Boddicker (39-of-89, 44%) are also capable of draining shots from the perimeter.

Ford is the key, though, as his penetration will open up Mouton and Co. to spot up for jumpers. Ford is perhaps the best passer in the country, averaging 7.2 assists per game, with only 2.2 turnovers per outing.

For money line players interested in backing the 'Cuse to win outright, they can bring home plus 135 on the comeback. Of course, another advantage of this type of wager is the absence of "the juice." Most places are listing Texas as a minus 155 'chalk' on the money line.
 

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Final Fo

Marquette vs. Kansas



All the talk on Selection Sunday centered around the potential Final Four matchup between Arizona and Kentucky. But on the road to the Final Four, both sets of Wildcats ran into trouble.


Travis Deiner and Dwyane Wade have led Marquette to its first Final Four since 1977. (AP)
Marquette's Dwyane Wade tallied 29 points, 11 rebounds and 11 assists to guide the Golden Eagles to an 83-69 thumping of Kentucky in the Midwest region final. The loss snapped UK's 26-game winning streak.

Marquette posted the outright victory as a seven-point underdog. Money-line players backing Tom Crean's team brought home a plus-220 profit on the comeback.

This will be the Golden Eagles' first appearance in the Final Four since the late Al McGuire led them to a national championship win over North Carolina at Atlanta's Omni in 1977.

Gamblers have been pulling in profit on Marquette (27-5 straight up, 19-9 ATS) throughout the Tournament, with the lone 'non-cover' coming in a 72-68 first-round win over Holy Cross as a 9 1/2-point 'chalk.' Since then, the Golden Eagles have racked up three consecutive pointspread covers.

Crean's club outdueled Missouri in OT, 101-92, as a 2 1/2-point favorite in Round 2. In a Sweet 16 matchup with Pitt, Marquette collected a 77-74 win as a 6 1/2-point underdog. Once again, money-line players were rewarded with plus 210 on the comeback.

Dating back to a March 13 loss to UAB in the first round of the Conference USA Tournament, the 'over' has appeared in five consecutive Marquette games.

Kansas (29-7 SU, 16-15 ATS) has been installed as a 4 1/2-point favorite at most sports books, with the total at 152 1/2. The Jayhawks advanced to their second consecutive Final Four, the fourth under head coach Roy Williams. This will be KU's 12th Final Four appearance in its storied history.

Williams' team led top-seeded Arizona by as many as 16 points, but the Jayhawks had to fight to the wire to earn a 78-75 victory as 2 1/2-point underdogs. The win avenged a January home loss to the Wildcats.


KU advanced to the Elite Eight with outright wins over Utah State, Arizona State and Duke. The Jayhwaks have covered the number in each Tournament outing, with the exception of the Utah State game. The 'under' has compiled a 3-1 mark.

Senior guard Kirk Hinrich struggled mightily in the win over Duke, but he snapped out of a shooting slump to drain 28 points when his team needed him most in the West region final. Nick Collison was stymied by second-half foul trouble against 'Zona, but Hinrich answered the bell by carrying the scoring load.

Collison was brilliant in the Sweet 16 matchup against the Blue Devils. The senior forward scored a career-high 33 points and grabbed 19 rebounds in the 69-65 triumph as a 3 1/2-point 'chalk.'

This victory exacted more revenge for KU. Remember, Duke rallied to knock off KU in a second-round Tournament game in Winston Salem when Collison and Hinrich were freshmen. I was at that game in March of 2000, and I remember being impressed with Hinrich's dominance of fellow freshman Jason Williams of Duke. It wasn't to be, though, as Shane Battier sprarked a Duke comeback.

Let's also not forget that it was Duke which turned KU away in Williams' only appearance at the Finals in '92. So, could this be the year that Williams gets each monkey off his back, including the one of best coach never to win it all? Only time will tell.

Look for the matchup between Marquette guard Travis Deiner (11.2 points per game) and Hinrich to be a beauty. Hinrich owns the edge in experience, but Deiner is a fearless competitor who should make this matchup a wash for the Golden Eagles at the very least.

Expect Marquette forward Scott Merritt to draw the dauting task of sticking Collison. Merritt (9.8 PPG, 6.7 RPG) is an athletic forward with plenty of muscle and quickness for the task.

KU will obviously attempt to contain Wade, but Marquette has a number of scoring options, including center Robert Jackson. The Mississipi State transfer felt right at home against an SEC foe last week, as Jackson dominated Marqus Estill on his way to a 24-point, 11-rebound effort.

Lanky freshman forward Steve Novak has also blossomed during March. Novak buried three critical shots from beyond the arc in overtime of the win over Mizzou. In addition, he was true on 5-of-8 attempts from 3-point land vs. Kentucky.

Marquette has dressed in the underdog role six times this season, posting a 4-2 record both SU and ATS. It has won its last four games in the underdog role (at Cincy, at Louisville, vs. Pitt and vs. UK).
 
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