The "Marquette Beats Kansas" scenario: It isn't often that the Jayhawks don't have the best player on the court, but that will be the case on Saturday. Wade, the Golden Eagles' electrifying shooting guard, has proven that it's not impossible to put up mind-blowing numbers while still helping your team win. I see Marquette finishing on top in one of two ways: Wade is out-of-his-mind brilliant like he was against Kentucky, or the Jayhawks become so focused on stopping Wade that they leave open Marquette's marksmen, guard Travis Diener and forward Steve Novak, while letting 6-foot-10 center Robert Jackson kill them on the offensive boards. Diener is also the type of heady point guard who can keep the game at a slow enough pace, which is a must against Kansas.
The "Kansas Beats Marquette" scenario: Jackson has been prone to getting in foul trouble this year, so the Jayhawks would do well to punch the ball inside to Collison early and often. Nobody has yet succeeded in stopping Kansas' secondary break, so the best strategy is to run with the Jayhawks. Good luck there. Also, Wade is not a great long-range shooter, and if his shot is off (remember, players often don't shoot well in a dome), then Plan A goes out the window. And here's a hunch: This type of game is usually decided by a secondary player who steps up at an opportune time. Someone like Kansas swingman Keith Langford. If he scores in double digits, the Jayhawks coast.
The "Texas Beats Syracuse" scenario: Everyone seems to believe that a zone is the best way to stop a penetrating point guard, but that's only half true -- because penetration from the point is also the best way to beat a zone. And in case you haven't noticed, T.J. Ford is pretty good at slipping into open cracks. (That's why his teammate Royal Ivey calls him "Rat.") In addition, Texas is more than just Ford, contrary to what you might have heard. The Longhorns have a plethora of spot-up shooters as well as the nation's best rotation of big men. As long as someone is making shots, the Longhorns should be able to beat the zone with relative ease.
The "Syracuse Beats Texas" scenario: OK, the zone should frustrate Ford -- not because he can't beat a zone, but because he and his mates haven't faced anything like it all year. It's that same lack of familiarity that always makes Temple so tough to beat in March. Syracuse also earns the nod in the best-player-on-the-court category. (And stop dreaming that Carmelo Anthony is coming back next year, 'Cuse fans. He's not.) Syracuse doesn't quite have the size to match Texas up front (who does?), but few people realize that the size of Syracuse's guards, especially 6-4 Billy Edelin, is a major advantage. It's a pretty easy scenario to envision: Jeremy McNeil and Craig Forth hold their own on the boards, Gerry McNamara and Hakim Warrick nail open jumpers, 'Melo gets his -- and the Orangemen move on.
