Season Stats: 53-49-3 (-11.43 units)
Last Week: 6-3 (+9.90 units)
1. HOUSTON (-4) (-115) over Southern Mississippi (1 unit)
2. USM/HOU UNDER 54 (1 unit)
Friday night's game is Southern Mississippi on the road against Houston. It took me a while to pick a side in this game, as it was rather tough. But, when you sit down and look at their numbers head-to-head, Houston just seems like the easy pick. They have a much more balanced offensive attack compared to Southern Miss. the Golden Eagles can shut down their opponents' passing game on the road, but they struggle stopping the run. All the Golden Eagles can do is run the ball on the road and they don't even do that very well. So, I see the Cougars focusing on Southern Miss' run game and hoping that they get them to pass the ball more and thus create turnovers. A couple of other stats that helped me make my pick: home team has covered 7 of the last 10 games head-to-head in this matchup; and Houston is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. Southern Miss. Houston -4 it is.
As for the total, I see the under hitting here. Both teams have solid rushing games and I see them trying to run the ball early against each other with Houston passing the ball a lot more than Southern Miss. And of course, running the ball means more time being consumed with less opportunities to score. I see the first half being very low scoring and the scoring may pick up in the second half, but I don't think it will pick up enough to push this game over 54. I'm taking the under here.
Last Week: 6-3 (+9.90 units)
1. HOUSTON (-4) (-115) over Southern Mississippi (1 unit)
2. USM/HOU UNDER 54 (1 unit)
Friday night's game is Southern Mississippi on the road against Houston. It took me a while to pick a side in this game, as it was rather tough. But, when you sit down and look at their numbers head-to-head, Houston just seems like the easy pick. They have a much more balanced offensive attack compared to Southern Miss. the Golden Eagles can shut down their opponents' passing game on the road, but they struggle stopping the run. All the Golden Eagles can do is run the ball on the road and they don't even do that very well. So, I see the Cougars focusing on Southern Miss' run game and hoping that they get them to pass the ball more and thus create turnovers. A couple of other stats that helped me make my pick: home team has covered 7 of the last 10 games head-to-head in this matchup; and Houston is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. Southern Miss. Houston -4 it is.
As for the total, I see the under hitting here. Both teams have solid rushing games and I see them trying to run the ball early against each other with Houston passing the ball a lot more than Southern Miss. And of course, running the ball means more time being consumed with less opportunities to score. I see the first half being very low scoring and the scoring may pick up in the second half, but I don't think it will pick up enough to push this game over 54. I'm taking the under here.
