- Sep 1, 2012
- 10,489
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Phillies F5, +165 (Pettibone / Greinke)
I have to love the press and other forms of media almost as much as the public. Sometimes the writers, analysts and producers are nothing more than exalted fans that have nice jobs. The media blitz given the Dodgers lately has nothing but phenomenal. You would think that Puig and Kemp have turned them into the 1927 Yankees with the addition of Mickey Mantle in Center Field. L.A. and New York are the markets the media need and the coverage doubles up or goes way past ridiculous. Joe Six Pack climbs aboard and buys into the hype. I have even heard Chris Berman called a ?sports expert?. No such thing, brother. He is a broadcasting expert that knows the right strings to hold an audience. He could not make a living in a Las Vegas sports book. What kind of ?expert? is that? So now the Dodgers are supposedly on top of the world, about to run away with the N.L. West and have just swept the rival Giants. Very impressive, even if they aren?t playing very good ball, a win is still a win, right? Basically the Dodgers are coming on late to win versus bullpens because they aren?t scaring right handed starters at all. After last night they are still 4-9-2 their last 15 games versus righty in the 5 inning game. No early run production gives them an oera of 3.8 per 9 and that equates to about 2 runs in the first 5. Not exactly a scary figure. The Phillies over the same 15 game span are 7-6-2 with an oera of 4.2 per 9, equating to a little more than Dodgers are likely to put up. It is a slim difference, but, the Phillies are paying 165 cents per dollar of risk and the Dodgers are paying 57 cents per dollar. There is no way on earth to look at the small difference between Pettibone (64.5) and Greinke (67.2), and add home field advantage and compute the Dodgers value or probability at 108 cents better. If I were a bookie with nothing but sharps for customers I would make the Dodgers about -117 and probably would not see a lot of action.
I have to love the press and other forms of media almost as much as the public. Sometimes the writers, analysts and producers are nothing more than exalted fans that have nice jobs. The media blitz given the Dodgers lately has nothing but phenomenal. You would think that Puig and Kemp have turned them into the 1927 Yankees with the addition of Mickey Mantle in Center Field. L.A. and New York are the markets the media need and the coverage doubles up or goes way past ridiculous. Joe Six Pack climbs aboard and buys into the hype. I have even heard Chris Berman called a ?sports expert?. No such thing, brother. He is a broadcasting expert that knows the right strings to hold an audience. He could not make a living in a Las Vegas sports book. What kind of ?expert? is that? So now the Dodgers are supposedly on top of the world, about to run away with the N.L. West and have just swept the rival Giants. Very impressive, even if they aren?t playing very good ball, a win is still a win, right? Basically the Dodgers are coming on late to win versus bullpens because they aren?t scaring right handed starters at all. After last night they are still 4-9-2 their last 15 games versus righty in the 5 inning game. No early run production gives them an oera of 3.8 per 9 and that equates to about 2 runs in the first 5. Not exactly a scary figure. The Phillies over the same 15 game span are 7-6-2 with an oera of 4.2 per 9, equating to a little more than Dodgers are likely to put up. It is a slim difference, but, the Phillies are paying 165 cents per dollar of risk and the Dodgers are paying 57 cents per dollar. There is no way on earth to look at the small difference between Pettibone (64.5) and Greinke (67.2), and add home field advantage and compute the Dodgers value or probability at 108 cents better. If I were a bookie with nothing but sharps for customers I would make the Dodgers about -117 and probably would not see a lot of action.
