First and Ten in 2020

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lostinamerica

Registered User
Forum Member
Oct 10, 2001
7,357
194
63
Between Green Bay and Iowa City
2019 NFL Regular Season: 85-75 (+2.66*)
2019-2020 NFL Postseason: 6-4 (+2.05*)

2019 NCAA Regular Season: 104-95 (+8.96*)
2019-2020 Bowl Season: 15-8 (+6.08*)


2018 NFL Regular Season: 88-63 (+19.74*)
2018-2019 NFL Postseason: 2-9 (-7.95*)

2018 NCAA Regular Season: 98-109 (-22.09*)
2018-2019 NCAA Bowl Season: 12-11 (+0.24*)


2017 NFL Regular Season: 61-54 (+0.23*)
2017-2018 NFL Postseason: 4-6 (-2.35*)

2017 NCAA Regular Season: 74-73 (-8.01*)
2017-2018 NCAA Bowl Season: 14-13 (+0.30*)


- - While certainly hopeful, for the entire off-season I?ve had no great expectations for any football in 2020. Now, seemingly out of almost nowhere compared to the normal anticipation that builds for me to start a football season, the Packers are playing football today, and my only meaningful expectation on that topic since 1992 is Super Bowl! . . . No Hawkeyes and no Big Ten Ten football is OK if I can have a U.S. Open and The Masters instead.

- - For many cappers, they do best coming slow out of the box to start the season, and/or play it really careful in the last couple weeks of the season when motivation has to be gauged, but the fact is that my long term history since 1999 finds the early weeks and late weeks as two productive stretches, with no shortage of plays by design . . . The 2020 season arrives like no other, for the unknown that creates for everyone (not saying it can?t be capped, but it is uncharted territory), and my homework to start the football seasons has been the least ever in two decades . . . Accordingly, I have yet to make an NCAA wager (although several of the 3 or 4 NCAA plays I was leaning toward over the last two weeks had some favorably one-sided outcomes), and I?m trying to stay disciplined and limit my speculation on today?s opening week action.


Los Angeles Chargers(-3)(+107) over Cincinnati (1*)
- - Think it merits 1.5*, except no game today merits 1.5*

Baltimore(-7) over Cleveland (1*)
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New York Jets(+6) over Buffalo (1*)
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New Orleans(-3)(-135) over Tampa Bay (1*)
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Green Bay(+1') over Minnesota (1 Biscuit)
- - Was looking for totals to play under, and passing on Un44' here as my best option just to avoid overexposure on a single game.


GL
 
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lostinamerica

Registered User
Forum Member
Oct 10, 2001
7,357
194
63
Between Green Bay and Iowa City
Los Angeles Rams(+1)(-105)(2h) over Dallas (1*)
- - Very surprised to see Dallas claw their way to the lead at the half, I'll use the opportunity to bail and lock in a good day, with a shot at a great day.

GL
 
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lostinamerica

Registered User
Forum Member
Oct 10, 2001
7,357
194
63
Between Green Bay and Iowa City
NFL YTD: 4-2 (+1.80*)
NCAA YTD: 0-0 (+0.00*)

Cleveland(-6) over Cincinnati (1*)
- - If this "must win off a pretty easy to foresee thrashing" situation plays out tonight as something close to the way I'm seeing it, then it seems a first half wager may be even a better proposition.

Cleveland(-3)(-120)(1h) over Cincinnati (1*)
- -

GL
 
L

lostinamerica

Registered User
Forum Member
Oct 10, 2001
7,357
194
63
Between Green Bay and Iowa City
NFL YTD: 4-2 (+1.80*)
NCAA YTD: 0-0 (+0.00*)

Green Bay(-6) over Detroit (1 Biscuit)
- - Last season, Green Bay never led in either Detroit game until kicking a field goal on the final play of each game. I?d only be lying if I didn?t claim this game as my top play for today.
- - https://www.acmepackingcompany.com/...020-aaron-rodgers-matt-lafleur-vikings-week-1
- - https://www.freep.com/story/sports/...shoulder-injury-green-bay-packers/5840071002/

New York Giants/Chicago(Ov42') (1*)
- - Pittsburgh looked very good on Monday night, but my take away from the game was as much about being essentially surprised by how much I liked what I saw from the Giants under their new coach. While I have definitely been liking the Giants to show up as a live dog today, I ended up deciding, probably stupidly, to play the Over.

Minnesota(+3')(-113) over Indianapolis (1*)
- - Seeing that anything like his best days are definitely behind QB Phillip Rivers has seemed to me to be as obvious for more than a season as it seemed obvious for multiple seasons with Eli Manning, and giving Rivers new and uncomfortably excessive responsibilities is not a recipe for success . . . I expect some fight in Minnesota after a season opening thrashing and will take the generous points on a live dog.

Tampa Bay(-8) over Carolina (1*)
- - If the weapons on offense can match the good things I thought I was seeing last week from the defense, I think Tampa is a handful for Carolina today.

GL
 
L

lostinamerica

Registered User
Forum Member
Oct 10, 2001
7,357
194
63
Between Green Bay and Iowa City
NFL YTD: 7-4 (+2.60*)
NCAA YTD: 0-0 (+0.00*)

Las Vegas(+4) over New Orleans (1*)
- - Both L.A. teams gave worthy efforts while debuting in their new palace. In a season full of "uncharted territory", I don't think it's a bad thing to have something recent to look at for some situational analysis. I think Jon Gruden is an excellent and underrated NFL coach and motivator, and I expect a jacked home team will possess the energy and sharpness on the big stage tonight that makes them worthy of carrying my cash as a live dog.

GL
 
L

lostinamerica

Registered User
Forum Member
Oct 10, 2001
7,357
194
63
Between Green Bay and Iowa City
NFL YTD: 8-4 (+3.60*)
NCAA YTD: 3-5 (-2.60*)

lostinamerica said:
New England(-5') over Las Vegas (1.5*)
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Click to expand...
- - Simply put, this game does not set up well for Las Vegas. The Raiders played one of their biggest games in years last week, and after their ?Super Bowl? they now travel to the East Coast on a short week for an early start. The Silver and Black were sharp and energized against the Saints, but still only averaged 5 yards per play on offense and needed to convert on 10 of 17 third down plays, which is not easily repeated in order to produce scores against the always stiffening New England defense, stinging after giving up 5 TD passes to Seattle . . . I heard a podcast this week that touched on a lot of points similar to my take on this game, and it was noted that HC Bill Belichick and OC Josh McDaniels look to be really having fun designing and calling plays in their new offense, unveiling a clearly strong and confident weapon in Cam Newton who looks energized by the prospect of winning. And for good measure, the profound motivation the entire Patriots team experienced from the tragedy confronting esteemed teammate James White produced a very empty feeling before a long flight home last week. I'm foremost a situational capper, and this game drips . . . Unless I will be traveling and away from a computer, I ALMOST NEVER post or place any of my weekly football wagers more than 24 hours before the event, almost an axiom I avoid violating, especially with my strongest plays, based on past outcomes. Regardless and notwithstanding, certain that this line would move only in one direction, I consciously made the choice that this was a play for venturing out and confronting my superstitions.


Atlanta(-3) over Chicago (1*)
- - I see this as a good spot for something close to a sustained best effort from a desperate Atlanta team, whether playing the Chiefs or the Saints, so long as it's an opponent with a pulse. I don't really see it as bad spot for the 2-0 Bears, playing with some confidence and with a pretty good record playing in domes. I just like Atlanta.


GL
 
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lostinamerica

Registered User
Forum Member
Oct 10, 2001
7,357
194
63
Between Green Bay and Iowa City
Los Angeles Rams(+1') over Buffalo (1*)
- - IMO Buffalo on defense has not been getting off the ball in the fast and physical fashion that feeds their best efforts, and now they are a little banged up. The motion and window dressing the Rams feature on offense will test that aggressive defense . . . I believe this is the first time since 2016 that Buffalo is favored over a team with a winning record, going from the hunter to the hunted. The Rams have been road warriors under HC McVay, and so far they look to me to be making more of an early season statement than the hopeful Bills.

Green Bay(+3)(+110) over New Orleans (1 Biscuit)
- - I know without checking that the point spread record is not strong for a team going on the road after scoring over 40 points in back to back weeks. There?s a good chance that trend will be impacted some tonight by the visitor not having to play in front of a packed and energized stadium, but I still would not recommend the Packers as a play, it?s just that I won?t be going against them here in the course of a 16 game schedule in which I always pick a side in any Green Bay game.

GL
 
L

lostinamerica

Registered User
Forum Member
Oct 10, 2001
7,357
194
63
Between Green Bay and Iowa City
Dallas(-3)(-135) over Cleveland (1*)
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Houston(-3)(-130) over Minnesota (1*)
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Tampa Bay(-7) over San Diego (1*)
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Los Angeles Rams(-13') over New York Giants (1*)
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Chicago(+3)(+102) over Indianapolis (1*)
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Miami(+5') over Seattle (1*)
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Detroit(+3) over New Orleans
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Arizona(-3) over Carolina (1*)
- -

GL
 
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