First and Ten

[lostinamerica]

2004 NCAA Regular Season: 55-49 (+3.58*)
2004-2005 NCAA Bowl Season: 5-8 (-4.96*)

2003 NCAA Regular Season: 53-43 (+5.35*)
2003-2004 NCAA Bowl Season: 7-7 (-0.42*)

2005 NFLX: 0-0 (+0.00)

2004 NFL Regular Season: 46-46 (-0.95*)
2004 NFL Postseason: 7-3 (+5.72*)
2004 NFLX: 1-0 (+1.00)

2003 NFL Regular Season: 49-51 (-4.94*)
2003 NFL Post Season: 7-4 (+3.09*)
2003 NFLX: 0-0


I'll open the season by quoting my post to open last season; I could embellish or revise it, but I like letting it stand exactly as it was, "30 minutes of brainstorming to scratch the surface":

"Every wager is founded on an angle of some sort, maybe a dozen, some better than others . . . Information and a frame of reference for synthesizing that information . . .Situational, fundamental, technical, valuist, contrarian . . . It's good to know and remember what has worked in the past, but it's mindless to be wedded to one or a few approaches or theories . . . You scrutinize. You step back. You dig a little more. You pull the trigger. MONEY MANAGEMENT. You're right, you're wrong, you evaluate and try again . . . The bad beats are maybe 1/3 as annoying as the flat out wrong and I must have been an idiot plays . . . Persevering for value in some long odds, and recognizing value on one side of a tight number. Matchups. Raw numbers. Where does the real motivation lie; Is this a bad spot even if they are headed in the right direction; Exhibitions, openers, playing out the string, championships - you won't find value if you keep your eyes closed . . . A few cappers recognizing what you are seeing so clearly; others not recognizing what seems so obvious you just want to scream before they trip; research that is good enough to convince you to take exactly the opposite side of what you anticipated going in . . . That's 30 minutes of brainstorming to scratch the surface . . . And now an old game starts a new season . . . GOOD LUCK!"

GL

******************************
Don't believe everything you think.
******************************

 

[lostinamerica]

UCLA(-7') over San Diego State (1.5*)
- - I don't believe the compass is so badly aligned that UCLA comes out and just goes through the motions in this lid lifter, or that the contest is ever in doubt if the major premise is correct.

Arizona State(-26 & -31) over Temple (1*)
- - Not a good matchup for Temple - speed, some desert, and not even much chance of exploiting or probing the ASU penchant for special teams leaks. (One unit for me is $40, and I was down with just 1/2 unit before the Temple suspensions wreaked havoc with the line.) QB Keller out of the pocket adds one huge dimension that was lacking under QB Walter. At bottom, casting a favorable vote on how the team has handled the Brandon Falkner - Loren Wade mess, at least in the shortest of terms under scrutiny here.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Kentucky(+22') over Louisville (1*)
- - I made four posts last season in which I analyzed and discussed why Louisville(-8') over Kentucky was my top play of the first weekend in 2004. After watching nearly every snap of last year's 28-0 spanking at a stoked Papa John's Stadium, my lasting impression of that game was that this is a nasty rivalry between two schools that really don't like each other much . . . I recognize the fine job HQ Petrino did last year of giving QB Brohm meaningful snaps during his true frosh campaign, but what QB LeFors brought to his team last year is not so easily replaced. Louisville was on a twelve month mission last year to go out with the C-USA crown, and simply put, that was all she wrote. I thought Bobby Petrino was probably the most underrated HC in the country at the start of last season, and it's no small feat to still have him on the Cardinals' sideline, while HC Rich Brooks of Kentucky is no Messiah that can resurrect Kentucky football from the purgatory of crippling scholarship limitations. Still, I'm not seeing the rout in this one, and I even tossed $5 on the +1400 ML.

Underdog Cats

Size 4-3 small

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Alabama(-21) over Middle Tennessee State (1*)
- - In the shadows of Katrina's devastation and exodus of refugees, I'll let a rock-ribbed team with a lot to prove carry my cash at home against an overmatched opponent.

GL

**************************************

QUOTES:


"We're probably as healthy as we've ever been. . . . We're excited. We're definitely excited." ~ HC Mike Shula (9.3.05 Newspaper)



?I think our guys are ready," Shula said. ?But the next 48 hours are important, too. It?s important for our guys to get off their feet and go over all the stuff and think about what it?s going to take to play four quarters of solid football."

Following up on his Wednesday announcement that the Alabama team would give up rooms at the Four Points Hotel on Friday night, Shula said Thursday that the entire team would stay in their apartments or dormitory rooms rather than displacing evacuees who fled the Gulf Coast in the wake of Hurricane Katrina.

?We?re not going to stay in the hotel at all," Shula said. ?We?ll stay in our own places. We?ll have our meetings in the football building. We?ll still have our meals at the hotel because that?s already been arranged." ~ (9.2.05 Newspaper)



"Many fans not only gave up (hotel) rooms but offered to pay for the evacuees to use them, said Robert Ratliff, executive director of the (Tuscaloosa) convention and visitors bureau." ~ (9.2.05 Newspaper)



In the only other meeting between Alabama and Middle Tennessee, the Crimson Tide jumped out to a 22-0 lead in the first quarter in the 2002 season opener before the Blue Raiders rallied. Alabama held on for a 39-34 win . . . Tide senior linebacker DeMeco Ryans remembers. It was his first game in an Alabama uniform, and he recorded his first college tackle. Based partially upon the Raiders' performance that day, he believes Middle Tennessee will come to Tuscaloosa on Saturday expecting to win . . . "They should come in here expecting to win," Ryans said. "I think every team comes in expecting to win. It's just a competitive nature football players have - you're going in to win." . . . Ryans paused and smiled . . . "But," he said, "they've got to run through a brick wall." ~ (9.1.05 Newspaper)



"The last I checked, she'd gone to Hattiesburg (Miss.), and Hattiesburg got hit pretty hard. I hope she got out of there . . . My mom, being such a godly person, I know she's fine, in my heart . . . It's killing me inside. But I've got to leave it in God's hands. I've got to get prepared for this game." ~ WR Keith Brown (native of Gulfport, Miss) unable to get in touch with his mother (9.1.05 Newspaper)