First and Ten

[lostinamerica]

2004 NFL Regular Season: 46-46 (-0.95*)
2004 NFL Postseason: 7-3 (+5.72*)
2004 NFLX: 1-0 (+1.00)

2003 NFL Regular Season: 49-51 (-4.94*)
2003 NFL Post Season: 7-4 (+3.09*)
2003 NFLX: 0-0

2004 NCAA Regular Season: 55-49 (+3.58*)
2004-2005 NCAA Bowl Season: 5-8 (-4.96*)

2003 NCAA Regular Season: 53-43 (+5.35*)
2003-2004 NCAA Bowl Season: 7-7 (-0.42*)



I'll open the season by quoting my post to open last season; I could embellish or revise it, but I like letting it stand exactly as it was, "30 minutes of brainstorming to scratch the surface":

Every wager is founded on an angle of some sort, maybe a dozen, some better than others . . . Information and a frame of reference for synthesizing that information . . .Situational, fundamental, technical, valuist, contrarian . . . It's good to know and remember what has worked in the past, but it's mindless to be wedded to one or a few approaches or theories . . . You scrutinize. You step back. You dig a little more. You pull the trigger. MONEY MANAGEMENT. You're right, you're wrong, you evaluate and try again . . . The bad beats are maybe 1/3 as annoying as the flat out wrong and I must have been an idiot plays . . . Persevering for value in some long odds, and recognizing value on one side of a tight number. Matchups. Raw numbers. Where does the real motivation lie; Is this a bad spot even if they are headed in the right direction; Exhibitions, openers, playing out the string, championships - you won't find value if you keep your eyes closed . . . A few cappers recognizing what you are seeing so clearly; others not recognizing what seems so obvious you just want to scream before they trip; research that is good enough to convince you to take exactly the opposite side of what you anticipated going in . . . That's 30 minutes of brainstorming to scratch the surface . . . And now an old game starts a new season . . . GOOD LUCK!

GL

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Don't believe everything you think.
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[lostinamerica]

2005 NFLX: 0-0 (+0.00)
2005 NCAA YTD: 6-4 (+2.10*)

Buffalo(-4') over Houston (1*)
- - I thought the Bill's franchise made the right hire with HC Mularkey, and he has done the right things to nicely reinforce my favorable perception. I was tempted to back the Bills in last year's opener, but I knew better; I'm tempted to back the Bills in this year's opener, and I don't know better . . . . Situational efficiency is the favorable MO sought for all units on a Dom Capers team, which I'm not tracking as the Texan's immediate destiny in an opener likely to be dictated by a disruptive tempo.


St. Louis(-4' and -6) over San Francisco (1*)
- - I'm mostly surprised ham-handed HC Martz doesn't have the St. Louis express off track already, but there's always time enough for that. As it is for the lid lifter, I see a team that would be scary on the attack against any team in the league without a strong identity of it's own, and I think the Rams are primed to open the season against their most storied division rival.
http://www.belleville.com/mld/belleville/sports/12559163.htm


Atlanta(+105ML) over Philadelphia (1*)
- - Andy Reid's prime time magic lacks much of it's customary resonance under the circumstances that weigh the heaviest on my scale in capping this lid lifter . . . All good things come to an end, specifically my 12-0 record from last year on sides and totals in the last six MNF games that carried me to the $500 prize in the 5dimes contest, but . . .

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Denver(-5) over Miami (1*)

The Snake Slithers In

The Snake slithers into a third season as the Broncos' starting quarterback.

"This," Shanahan said on the eve of training camp, "is the year to evaluate Jake."

After a relatively quiet preseason ? the spotlight rotated between the new defensive linemen, Maurice Clarett, the rookie cornerbacks and Jerry Rice ? Plummer will take the stage . . .

Plummer has a 19-8 record as the Broncos' starter, the fourth-best winning percentage in the NFL since opening day 2003 behind New England's Tom Brady (28-4), Philadelphia's Donovan McNabb (25-6) and Indianapolis' Peyton Manning (24-8). Last season he set a franchise single-season record for passing yards (4,089) and tied John Elway's one-year record for touchdown passes with 27.

But critics point to the 20 interceptions and lack of production in blowout playoff losses to the Colts as proof that Plummer isn't consistent enough to carry the Broncos back to the Super Bowl.

During three exhibition games, Plummer warmed up for this season of judgment by completing 23 of 35 passes (65.7 percent) for 321 yards and three touchdowns without an interception. That translates to a Manning-like QB rating of 123.6.

"Jake's played very consistently," Shanahan said. "Number one, you want to take care of the ball, you don't want to turn the football over. You want to manage the game well. You want to go through your reads and you have to improve from the year before. I think he has made an improvement each year, and hopefully this year there will be no difference."

Plummer did his damage in the preseason against Houston, Indianapolis and San Francisco defenses that didn't spend much, if any, time game-planning for him. Today he will be facing what is expected to be a very strong Miami defense, which features defensive end Jason Taylor, veteran linebackers Zach Thomas and Junior Seau, and play-making cornerback Sam Madison.

First-year head coach Nick Saban has a reputation as a strong defensive coach. And considering the Dolphins are without Ricky Williams for four games (league suspension) and are starting journeyman Gus Frerotte at quarterback, the team is going to have to rely heavily on Saban's favorite side of the ball.

"Obviously, what I did in the preseason equated to about one full game. If you take those stats, it was decent," Plummer said. "It's week to week now. You get a game each week. You've got to be ready to strap it on. I know the guys around me will be ready to play. I just need to guide the ship and keep doing what I'm doing."

Plummer is 2-0 in season openers with the Broncos, and Shanahan is an impressive 10-2, the top Week 1 winning percentage among active head coaches. Denver has compiled a 29-15-1 opening day record since 1960, which is fourth among all NFL teams.

"You want to start fast. Obviously, in the league, it's what you do in the end of the season," Plummer said. "You need to put yourself in position to make a run late. To do that, you've got to get a win early. So the first game, we want to go down there and get a win no matter what."

The statistic the Broncos hope to change is the franchise's 0-6 record in Miami. The team flew here on Friday night to spend a little extra time getting used to the humidity and adjusting their biological clocks for the early kickoff.

The time to evaluate Jake Plummer ? according to his boss ? begins now.

"We go as our quarterback goes," receiver Rod Smith said. "When he's efficient, the rest of us are efficient. He didn't make any mistakes with the football (in the preseason). He has to make sure he's careful and he did that. He ran when he had to run, he was safe when he had to be safe, he threw it in the stands when he had to throw it in the stands."

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

I was 9-6 on NFL sides, and 8-7 on totals, and it felt like I went 1-14 . . . HC Mike Nolan and the 49ers would have surprised me if I had researched and analyzed for a week, but failing to do my homework on Kansas City (no play), and shying away from my research on New Orleans and Miami (no play and a dumb play) when the angles I look for were all in plain sight, are blunders plain and simple that can't be undone. What I can control is patiently persevering and not backing down the next time that instincts and research present an opportunity.


Philadelphia/Atlanta(Ov41') (1*)
- - These quarterbacks in this atmosphere are not going to be on a short leash, and plays will get made that move the scoreboard. I can't see the game unfolding with the red zone futility, absences of short fields, and grinding absences of clock stoppages that might frequently obtain with either or both of these teams . . . Both teams were 5-11 in O/U last year, and I leaned to the Under for a championship game last year in cold and windy Philly.

GL

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delcotimes.com (9.12.05):

McNabb and the Eagles want to attack the Falcons undersized secondary, the featured matchup Owens (6-3, 226) versus speedy, yet short cornerback DeAngelo Hall (5-10, 197). The key is to protect McNabb from an explosive pass rush kick-started by defensive end Patrick Kerney and tackle Rod Coleman.

The Eagles also want to use Brian Westbrook to exploit the Falcons linebackers, a mix of talent with Keith Brooking, Ed Hartwell and former Eagle Ike Reese, but not enough giddy up to stick with the Pro Bowl running back.

Defensively the Eagles expect the Falcons to try to loosen them up and stretch them out with running backs Warrick Dunn and T.J. Duckett, test the middle with tight end Alge Crumpler and finally to take some deep shots to a towering and athletic but inexperienced group of wide receivers topped by Michael Jenkins (6-4, 217).

Special teams could be a big factor, as Eagles punter Dirk Johnson isn?t 100 percent after surgery for a sports hernia, and Falcons counterpart Michael Koenen is an undrafted rookie making his regular season debut.

The Falcons have a game breaking return man in Allen Rossum, the Eagles an up-and-comer in Dexter Wynn, who?s been limited by a high angle sprain.

Though Vick would seem to have an edge on the fast Georgia Dome carpet, the Eagles want to keep him in the pocket, where he is slightly less dangerous.

"We know they are a good football team," Andy Reid said of the Falcons. "We know the crowd is going to be loud and it will be an exciting atmosphere. Our players and coaches are fired up to go down there and have the opportunity to play such a good football team."


ajc.com (9.12.05):

Despite thwarting Michael Vick in two playoff games, Eagles safety Brian Dawkins hasn't developed a good feel for how to stop the Falcons quarterback.

"I could say yes, but I'd be lying," said Dawkins, who intercepted a Vick pass in last year's NFC championship game, won by Philadelphia 27-10. "He's a guy that you don't come across too often as a player. You can't really get a grasp on when he's going to tuck it and run. You can tell right at the last second, but is that going to help you? Not really."

Philadelphia's con*tained rush and mixed coverages held the Falcons to 202 net yards and Vick to 136 yards passing (11-for-24) and 26 yards on the ground on four carries. However, the Eagles say they can't use last year's title game as a blueprint.

"We're trying to look at the stuff we did last time, but know that was last year, so that's behind us," said defensive end Jevon Kearse, who had one of the Eagles' four sacks of Vick. "Now we're trying to go out there and see if we can throw something different at them ... and we're going to have to be ready to adapt to whatever they do different from last time."

Vick and the Falcons have more experience running the West Coast offense, and none of their receivers this season is smaller than 6 feet, 200 pounds. On turf inside the Georgia Dome instead of playing on the frigid field in Philadelphia, Vick will be even fleeter.

"We have our scheme to try to keep him at bay, but he gets paid the big bucks to make plays," said defensive tackle Hollis Thomas, who had another of the sacks in January. "We can't hang our head when he makes a play; we've just got to come back ready for him on the next one."

The Eagles defense has changed. Defensive end Derrick Burgess, who had two sacks, was a free agent who signed with Oakland, and disgruntled defensive tackle Corey Simon was released and is now with Indianapolis.

"We'll miss those guys," said defensive coordinator Jim Johnson, noting that N.D. Kalu and Mike Patterson will fill in on the line of scrimmage.

The Falcons say they want to pass more, and Johnson has seen Vick make a lot of deep throws on the scramble. But he recognizes that this is still the team that led the NFL in rushing last year.

"Vick, if he has time, he has a great arm," Johnson said. "And he knows the system a lot better. He looked good at times in the preseason as far as throwing the football. We still have got to do a good job against the running game and containment. That's still our main goal."

Kearse said the Eagles don't want to let Vick get outside the pocket "and have time to make things happen. Then again, we don't want them to get rid of the ball fast, so we can hopefully chase him around a little bit."

Dawkins said he gets no relief from hearing Vick say he wants to pass more.

"He has a gun for an arm," Dawkins said, "but the things that he can do with his legs, man. For one thing he can fly. Number two, chasing him down is going to get you tired for the next play. So you kind of would say you would want him to throw the ball, but at the same time, you understand he has a gun for an arm."

And the Eagles aren't forgetting the Falcons' other weapons, either.

"Warrick Dunn," linebacker Jeremiah Trotter said. "And they've got the beast at tight end, Alge Crumpler. He's just like a wide receiver. We've got our hands full."