First and Ten

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lostinamerica

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Oct 10, 2001
7,511
239
63
Between Green Bay and Iowa City
NFL YTD: 0-0 (+0.00*)
NCAA YTD: 4-3 (+0.70*)

Kansas City(+9)(-114) over New England (1*)
- - QB Alex Smith is 60-25-1 SU over the last 6 seasons, and while he displays a fair amount of low risk / Captain Checkdown /game manager tendencies over the long haul of a season, IMO (with which almost no one else concurs), he has consistently as needed elevated his play and been more take charge aggressive in all or nearly all of his playoff appearances (and numerous other big games as well); unfortunately for him, it has been his teammates (and not his solid prime time coaches, either) who have been much more culpable for failing to rise to the occasion and carry those squads to the next level . . . Regardless, I think the Chiefs relish their chance in the spotlight tonight, and they have all the pieces and experience to make it a whale of a game.

GL
 
L

lostinamerica

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Oct 10, 2001
7,511
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Between Green Bay and Iowa City
New England(-3')(2h)(-115) over Kansas City (1*)
- - Kansas City should hang around from here, and I hope those that stick with the Chiefs get rewarded. But it's the Evil Empire so I'll look for an angle to get out.

GL
 
L

lostinamerica

Registered User
Forum Member
Oct 10, 2001
7,511
239
63
Between Green Bay and Iowa City
NFL YTD: 1-1 (-0.15*)
NCAA YTD: 10-10 (-1.00*)

Los Angeles Rams(-3)(-125) over Indianapolis (1*)
- - I really believe the Rams are that much better on defense and offense at the moment, with limitations of the visitor playing right into their wheelhouse, but I worry about how inept and stupid the Rams look whenever anything at all is expected from them.

Atlanta(-6') over Chicago (1*)
- - It sure looks like the linesmakers are taking a stand on enticing money in this game . . . Regardless, Atlanta definitely has a long season ahead to generate enough vibes to overcome a hangover, but I guess I don?t see the Chicago offense ambushing the Atlanta defense in a scoreboard chasing game today.

Pittsburgh(-9') over Cleveland (1*)
- - Pittsburgh?s secondary is vulnerable, but Pittsburgh is the class of the division that rarely stumbles in Cleveland or in generating early season momentum, and I believe they will have wrinkles for rookie QB Kizer that makes them worthy of my cash.

Seattle(+3) over Green Bay (1 Biscuit)
- - Best game of opening weekend, with likely repercussions in January. Seattle not the same team on the road, but capable of a lot when they are at full strength and a given game has their undivided focus, which is where I thoroughly suspect this trip to Green Bay rates . . . I can?t find much fault with Green Bay?s off season and preseason preparation, but I see the same from a strong Seattle club that is looking a little further along and more polished on opening week.

Tennessee(-3)(+105) over Oakland (1*)
- - I?m not sure it?s a strong play, but I?m with a big group thinking Tennessee gets the job done.

GL
 
L

lostinamerica

Registered User
Forum Member
Oct 10, 2001
7,511
239
63
Between Green Bay and Iowa City
NFL YTD: 1-1 (-0.15*)
NCAA YTD: 10-10 (-1.00*)

Los Angeles Rams(-3)(-125) over Indianapolis (1*)
- - I really believe the Rams are that much better on defense and offense at the moment, with limitations of the visitor playing right into their wheelhouse, but I worry about how inept and stupid the Rams look whenever anything at all is expected from them.

Atlanta(-6') over Chicago (1*)
- - It sure looks like the linesmakers are taking a stand on enticing money in this game . . . Regardless, Atlanta definitely has a long season ahead to generate enough vibes to overcome a hangover, but I guess I don?t see the Chicago offense ambushing the Atlanta defense in a scoreboard chasing game today.

Pittsburgh(-9') over Cleveland (1*)
- - Pittsburgh?s secondary is vulnerable, but Pittsburgh is the class of the division that rarely stumbles in Cleveland or in generating early season momentum, and I believe they will have wrinkles for rookie QB Kizer that makes them worthy of my cash.

Seattle(+3)(-125) over Green Bay (1 Biscuit)
- - Best game of opening weekend, with likely repercussions in January. Seattle not the same team on the road, but capable of a lot when they are at full strength and a given game has their undivided focus, which is where I thoroughly suspect this trip to Green Bay rates . . . I can?t find much fault with Green Bay?s off season and preseason preparation, but I see the same from a strong Seattle club that is looking a little further along and more polished on opening week.

Tennessee(-3)(+105) over Oakland (1*)
- - I?m not sure it?s a strong play, but I?m with a big group thinking Tennessee gets the job done.

GL
 
L

lostinamerica

Registered User
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Oct 10, 2001
7,511
239
63
Between Green Bay and Iowa City
NFL YTD: 3-5 (-2.55*)
NCAA YTD: 13-14 (-2.40*)

Seattle(-14) over San Francisco (1.5*)
- - I hear all so many ?insiders? claiming Seattle is starting this season with a riff between defense and offense. I see a team with big ambitions that is improved on both sides of the ball that you don?t want to play against 12 men this week.

Green Bay(+3)(-120) over Atlanta (1 Biscuit)
- - The Packers under Rogers and McCarthy have been solid and elite for many instances and many seasons after showing in a spot like they did last week . . . This game every healthy Packer has a score to settle in Atlanta . . . I suppose I would prefer the game was in the familiar 0-31 venue as last year?s NFC Championship game, but you can?t have everything, and getting a prime time showcase in a new venue like Green Bay was given against Minnesota last year is just relish on a not so cold dish. I regularly make an effort to predict margins but rarely any effort to predict scores, but here I?ll go with 30-24 and Jordy scores two touchdowns.

Oakland(-13') over New York Jets (1*)
- -

Kansas City(-5') over Philadelphia(1*)
- - I gave my thoughts on Alex Smith and the Chiefs last week, and they get to carry my cash again this week.

New England(-6) over New Orleans (1*)
- - With going on an extra full week over New Orleans to prepare from Thursday at home to Monday on the road and to marinate in the juices of their opening night beat down, I?m wagering against this New Orleans team being responsible for stressing a dinged up New England team with the prospects of an 0-2 start at crunch time.

Buffalo(+7)(-120) over Carolina (1*)
- - I heard and seen San Francisco at home last week was almost as inept as Indianapolis. Buffalo is unreliable in this spot, but Carolina and their QB only have me on board with an 8-8 or 10-6 type season, like the team they should be scrapping with for 60 minutes today.

I have my eyes on San Diego and Minnesota, then Tennessee and Detroit.

GL
 
L

lostinamerica

Registered User
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Oct 10, 2001
7,511
239
63
Between Green Bay and Iowa City
NFL YTD: 7-7 (-1.40*)

Los Angeles Rams(-3) over San Francisco (1*)
- - Any feel I have for the teams would say the Rams just are further along in being worthy of carrying my cash, but not so much so I'd make a wager tonight without some nuggets that seemed supportive of the Rams chances, and I'll offer these:
- - (1) The 49ers will play four days after their defense logged 79 snaps against Seattle, the fourth-most snaps their defense has played in a non-overtime game since 2010.
- - (2) Rams 3rd down conversions: 10/26 opponent 5/23; 49ers 3rd down conversion: 4/23 opponent 15/32.
- - (3) In their last 22 games, the 49ers are 3-0 SU against the Rams and 0-19 SU against the rest of the NFL.

GL
 
L

lostinamerica

Registered User
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Oct 10, 2001
7,511
239
63
Between Green Bay and Iowa City
Tennessee(-2) over Seattle (1*)
- -

Green Bay(-7)(-103) over Cincinnati (1 Biscuit)
- -

New Orleans(+5) over Carolina (1*)
- -

Buffalo(+3')(-113) over Denver (1*)
- -

Atlanta(-3) over Detroit (1*)
- -

New York Giants(+6)(-120) over Philadelphia (1*)
- -

GL
 
L

lostinamerica

Registered User
Forum Member
Oct 10, 2001
7,511
239
63
Between Green Bay and Iowa City
NFL YTD: 12-10 (+0.27*)

Green Bay(-7) over Chicago (1 Biscuit)
- - Historic opportunity with all-time series tied at 94-94-6 after Packers trailed 57-81-6 as recently as 1992. This price really doesn't feel like I'm buying the depleted Packers low or selling the Bears high, so the reason I'll latch onto is Green Bay's weakness for going on 20 years has not been games at Lambeau against teams without dynamic passing threats.

GL
 
L

lostinamerica

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Oct 10, 2001
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Between Green Bay and Iowa City
New Orleans(-3)(-130) over Miami (1*)
- - Liked what I've seen this year from QB Brees with his play and ball security, being IMO complemented by some uncharacteristic grittiness and less cockiness from the rest of the Saints team. Definitely liking the Saints preparation for this trip over that of the Dolphins, and not having London be a third straight road trip. My strongest opinion for any game on the board this week.

GL
 
L

lostinamerica

Registered User
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Oct 10, 2001
7,511
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63
Between Green Bay and Iowa City
Los Angeles Rams(Ov22)(-120) over Dallas (1*)
- - A bad sandwich for Dallas with Green Bay on deck, but I don't like the line crashing all week in the Rams direction. I did see that a game involving teams coming off Thursday and Monday games the prior week is a strong situation favoring the over (also applies to SF vs. Arizona), but if the Rams really are frisky in this spot, then this is the play I like best.

Jacksonville(-4) over New York Jets (1*)
- - Nothing very good situationally for the Jaguars to be favored on the road for the first time since 2011. But I think the right team is favored. And in that vein, I read someone's comment that right now they would not trade Blake Bortles for Cam Newton, and I concur.
http://jacksonville.com/jaguars/spo...bye-week-after-london-game-preparations-begin

Seattle(-12') over Indianapolis (1*)
- -

Tennessee(-3)(+102) over Houston (1*)
- - QB Deshaun Watson is a big upgrade and the right move, but the money side for me has Tennessee further emerging within their division on the strength of some top flight play.

I really don't want to play the Chargers, but I feel I should.

GL
 
L

lostinamerica

Registered User
Forum Member
Oct 10, 2001
7,511
239
63
Between Green Bay and Iowa City
NFL YTD: 16-12 (+2.17*)
NCAA YTD: 32-32 (-5.27*)

Los Angeles Rams(-1) over Seattle (1*)
- - The L.A. offense is outperforming their purported strength, their defense. The entire team is energized with schemes, talent and aggressiveness, and I think rookie coach Sean McVay gets the better of Pete Carroll.

Miami(-1) over Tennessee (1*)
- - A team getting their first true home game on October 8 has been on my radar for weeks. They delivered as expected last week, now I think the favorable aspects come into play.

Dallas(-2') over Green Bay (1 Biscuit)
- - Green Bay has had a few extra days and may be getting a little healthier, and this Packers team near full strength looks improved over the team that made the NFC Championship, but they are 4-11 (SU) their last 15 games as a dog . . . Dallas at 2-2 looks to be something less than last year's 13-3 squad, but are 0-14 ATS as a home favorite coming off a loss where they failed to cover . . . Hope I'm wrong in a big way, but my capping sees the intangibles favoring Dallas today.

Buffalo(+3)(-105) over Cincinnati (1*)
- - The team with he longest playoff drought in the NFL that is allowing the fewest points in the league after back to back wins over Denver and Atlanta appeals as an energized dog over an underachieving Marvin Lewis team recently energized by the hiring of a new offensive coordinator.

GL
 
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L

lostinamerica

Registered User
Forum Member
Oct 10, 2001
7,511
239
63
Between Green Bay and Iowa City
Philadelphia(-6) over Arizona (1*)
- - Gets the nod over Detroit for "one more play". Arizona comes off a dramatic overtime divisional game for an early East Coast game that is their first game outdoors and may have some weather issues . . . An improved Philadelphia team back home looks headed in a different direction than a creaking Arizona squad.

GL
 
L

lostinamerica

Registered User
Forum Member
Oct 10, 2001
7,511
239
63
Between Green Bay and Iowa City
Washington(-10') over San Francisco (1*)
- -

Houston(-7') over Cleveland (1*)
- -

Kansas City(-3)(-125) over Pittsburgh (1*)
- -

Green Bay(-3)(-105) over Minnesota (1 Biscuit)
- -

New Orleans(-4') over Detroit (1*)
- -

GL
 
L

lostinamerica

Registered User
Forum Member
Oct 10, 2001
7,511
239
63
Between Green Bay and Iowa City
Los Angeles Rams(-3)(-120) over Arizona (1*)
- -

Minnesota(-5) over Baltimore (1*)
- -

Buffalo(-3)(-118) over Tampa Bay (1*)
- -

New Orleans(-3') over Green Bay (1 Biscuit)
- -

Cleveland(+6)(-105) over Tennessee (1*)
- -

GL
 
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