First-Half Play on Cincy

[Nolan Dalla]

I'm on this already and want to post it here so others might get on it before the line moves down a half point. I'm all over Cincy this week -- game line at +6.5.....on a teaser at +12.5......and now on the first-half at +3.5. This is a terrific value for the Bengals at home, getting the hook on the 3 against a team that is having just as many problems. Too much to ask the Steelers to go on the road against a division opponent and cover a rather high number in the 1H. Bengals finally showed some life last week against Indy and that should carry over here in a big home game against a division rival. I look for a close game, and +3.5 should be the difference.

FIRST-HALF CINCINNATI +3.5 vs. PITTSBURGH


-- ND

 

[acehistr8]

Ooofa, hate to disagree with you here Nolan, I just cant take the Bengals solely on their performance last week.

You are right in that they definitely got back on track. Kitna was 34-43/244 and looked not as terrible as the rest of the team has looked this year. But they are still having trouble developing a cohesive receiving core, and why is Dillon just now getting the touches he needs?

On the other side of the ball though, Tommy Maddux really picked up his game, 22-38/268/3tds. He is giving that team a little life that they certainly did not have under Kordell. My problem is the Steelers D which really needs to pick it up, though I think this spot is one in which they do.

I see a closer game but still a 27-17ish Pitt win, teasing it may be the way to go.

Good luck this weekend.

 

[Wolftaz]

Nolan, I am curious about the 1H play for the simple reason that the Bengals have been having a very hard time generating any offense in the 1H. The Bengals defense may also be hurting due to the staus of Brian Simmons. He is doubtful for the game and I believe he is a greater asset to that defense than Takeo Spikes. I believe teasing the game is a great bet, but I think the Bengals may have a rough go of it in the 1H and make a run at the Steelers in the 2H like last years upset win. Just my opinion.
:shrug:

 

[djv]

I can agree. This is just what others will think the other way. I also am not popular with this play. But this game im playing Over.

 

[acehistr8]

Agree with the over play djv.

 

[Z-MAN]

Nolan,

I'm a little scared about your play. I am a big Steeler fan and follow the team every day. I read all the papers, notes, etc...
Cowher is furious about the way they have opened games this season. They have only held a lead for 3 1/2 minutes this entire season!!!!! I expect the Steelers to get out of the gates fast (both offensively and defensively) this week. This is a must win divisional game for them and they will not be taking this team lightly - they have done so in years past.

I expect the Steelers to win in double digits this week. Their defense is finally going to show up (Kendrell Bell might even play), their offense showed real signs this week, and the Steeler fans always travel to Cincy.......

Just my 2 cents anyway buddy......

 

[Nolan Dalla]

Thanks for the replies.....

I realize I'm betting on a pig, but we are beginning to see that when "good" teams have problems (STL, TENN, PITT) that's no indication they will suddenly bounce back and come to life -- especially on the road. Coach Cower must have been pissed last week too -- but that did the Stellers no good. The Saints rolled up and down the field on Pittsburgh. As for Maddux, he's an XFL QB who would have already been in the NFL if he had any real talent. I agree, he has looked decent these last few weeks, but I'm not a believer in Maddux. Kitna is no confidence builder either, but I DO believe Cincy is looking at this as a WINNABLE game. That makes all the difference in the world when it comes to attitude. Steelers struggled badly at home versus Cleveland (a mediocre team) and now go on the road and have to lay nearly a TD? I'll fade that deal.

Again -- thatnks for the feedback. We can agree to disagree.


Nolan Dalla

 

[Roger]

who loves ya baby!!!

 

[a-train]

History is on your side Nolan.
Love them ugly dogs

If you wanna be happy for the rest of your life, never make a pretty woman your wife. So, from my personal point of view, get an ugly girl to marry you."

Because nothing is ever as bad as it looks on the surface, the ugliest looking situations often turn out the best.

It's all a matter of perspective, making the best out of a badly dealt hand. Like Jimmy Soul said about his wife, 'Yeah, she's ugly, but she sure can cook, baby!"

The same school of thought can work for you, too, when it comes to handicapping NFL games. Remember, there's often times a lot of value to be found in using teams that nobody would touch with a ten-foot pole. The key is finding the proper role for these ugly pigs. When you do, they turn into piggy banks.

Looking at the flip side of the coin, for a moment, the NFL's 'pretty boys' quickly capture the fancy of fans and players alike as everybody loves to associate with a good-looking winner. For instance did you know that, since 1990, 25 of the 31 teams who opened the season 4-0 SU (Straight-Up) in the decade of the 1990's went on to make the playoffs.

Collectively, though, these elite teams ended up money burners, going 179-197-8 ATS on out following their 4-0 beginning. Even worse was their performance as regular season underdogs, as their 34-53-2 ATS mark would attest.

Conversely, the ugliest of all situations occurs whenever an NFL teams opens the season winless throughout the first month of the campaign. Talk about u-g-l-y! Well, let me tell you, as Meat Loaf would say - STOP RIGHT THERE, BEFORE YOU GO ANY FURTHER!

The truth of the matter is these 0-4 oinkers have proven to be solid moneymakers from Game Five on out. On the blind, they collaborated to post a tantalizing 250-202-15 (55.3%) ATS log. By backing them when playing in their home pens, we fatten them up even more, bolstering our bankroll to 133-96 (58%) ATS!

The best of roles for these bacon-makers, however, comes about when we -

PLAY ON any NFL home team off a loss if they opened the season 0-4 SU and are not favored.

Now we're cookin'. By concentrating on these home pigs - er, home dogs - we improve our W-L record to 98-57-3 (63%) ATS! And, if we enter into the fray real hungry - and rested - our bankroll tips the scales at 15-2 (88%) ATS! Now, let the slaughter begin!!.....

 

[Valuist]

Well said. In the NFL, teams with bad records probably aren't as bad as they look and vica versa w/the good teams.

 

[acehistr8]

I think Cincy MIGHT actually be that bad...

 

[IX_Bender]

Hoops took off his avatar for crying out loud.

 

[IX_Bender]

BTW - Nice call on the Panthers FH Nolan.