So far this season, 7 of the 10 TNF games have gone over, many of them way over in shootouts. However, in the three games that did stay under, each featured a least one very poor offense. (Hou & Cin in Week 2, TBay in Week 5, AZ in Week 10) But if you look deeper, you will see that half of the games were Under in FH. (I say half, 3 of 6 because Week 1 was not Short Rest) Three of the first 4 TNF matchups were over 22 at HT, but only one since and that was KC / Oak on a lot of big plays.
Point being, I believe the defense has the edge early on a short week (3 days to prepare) so it reduces scoring considerably. Tonight we have two teams who prefer to run the ball, both with good defenses, and both needing this win. Tenn only averages about 7 pts a FH on the road while giving up 11.5, and Pitt ave 13 while surrendering about 8 per half at home. I know those numbers are not eye popping as they nearly match the FH line of Pitt -4 & 22, I just feel with these two teams, we should see a 10-6 type half.
Another FYI... Pitt is 1-8 to the Under this season, with the 29-14 win over CIN the only Over. However, no game has exceeded the 44 points total of tonight?s tilt. Seems a bit odd to me that you have a road team who averages under 18 ppg vs a home team averaging 21 at home, but the posted number is 44. (Opened 43.5) Maybe it?s the TNF shootout history that has the number so high, we shall see. I may be on the Under for the game eventually, but bought to 45 at least.
For now Under 22 FH gets my [emoji383]
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Point being, I believe the defense has the edge early on a short week (3 days to prepare) so it reduces scoring considerably. Tonight we have two teams who prefer to run the ball, both with good defenses, and both needing this win. Tenn only averages about 7 pts a FH on the road while giving up 11.5, and Pitt ave 13 while surrendering about 8 per half at home. I know those numbers are not eye popping as they nearly match the FH line of Pitt -4 & 22, I just feel with these two teams, we should see a 10-6 type half.
Another FYI... Pitt is 1-8 to the Under this season, with the 29-14 win over CIN the only Over. However, no game has exceeded the 44 points total of tonight?s tilt. Seems a bit odd to me that you have a road team who averages under 18 ppg vs a home team averaging 21 at home, but the posted number is 44. (Opened 43.5) Maybe it?s the TNF shootout history that has the number so high, we shall see. I may be on the Under for the game eventually, but bought to 45 at least.
For now Under 22 FH gets my [emoji383]
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
