As many know I tend to bet a lot of quarters and halves. I've strugglled with sides for a long time. But these quarters and halves continue to perform well.
I paid lots of extra attention this week on FIRST QUARTER BETTING. Here are a few thoughts.
BET AGAINST SAN FRANCISCO ANYTIME THEY LAY POINTS IN THE 1Q (NO MATTER WHAT)
I continue to marvel that no one seems to be betting what's been pure gold. That is, to bet against the San Francisco 49ers in the first quarter in every game.
I started touting this late last season and then touted this as the best prop on the board before the season started, publicly stating on a podcast with Wicked Chops and Gavin Smith in early September that this was going to be a sure moneymaker.
Well, it's gone a perfect 4-0 so far this season. Since C. Kaepernick has been the starter, the 49ers have been a dreadful first quarter performer, going a whopping 1-10 against the line in 11 games -- the lone cover coming in a 7-0 first quarter score at New England late last November (when they fumbled 3 times). What's best about this prop is, we are just about always GETTING points by taking the other side, since this is a very public team at the moment. Yet San Francisco averages less than 3 points per game in the 1Q (since Kaepernick started). I don't know how you can't continue to fade this team in every similar situation.
This week, we get a very live Houston team coming off a brutally disappointing loss where they vastly outplayed Seattle. Although on the road this week, this should be a favorable spot for the dog if you can stomach wagering on M. Shaub after last week's meltdown.
BET ON ATLANTA IN FIRST QUARTER AGAINST NY JETS
While previous results don't necessarily dictate future outcomes, I believe there's relevance to numbers and game preparation. Some coaches/coordinators/quarterbacks come out aggressively. Others like to play conservative and then make adjustments as the game plays out. This is especially true with less-experienced starting quarterbacks..
Here's a prime example of a game with two very different team mentalities in the first quarter. Looking at the four games played this season, ATL is scoring 8.5 points per 1Q (2nd best in the NFL despite a 1-3 record). NY Jets are scoring 3 points per 1Q, which ranks 25th.
This fits a well established pattern dating back three seasons. I stress THREE seasons here because that's pretty much the length of time for consistency in coaching and starters. Since personnel is somewhat similar 2010 to present for both teams, I believe these numbers are significant.
2012 -- ATL 6.2 points average vs. NYJ 3.6 points average
2011 -- ATL 7.1 points average vs. NYJ 3.8 points average
2010 -- ATL 4.5 points average vs. NYJ 1.9 points average
This shows ATL has been consistently outscoring NYJ as a first quarter team over the past 3.25 seasons (even though NYJ were a contending team at least two of those seasons).
If we add the MNF home team coming off a loss and rookie Smith taking snaps for Jets, I think this points to a very strong play on the Falcons in the first quarter on MNF.
More coming if I have time to post.
-- Nolan Dalla
I paid lots of extra attention this week on FIRST QUARTER BETTING. Here are a few thoughts.
BET AGAINST SAN FRANCISCO ANYTIME THEY LAY POINTS IN THE 1Q (NO MATTER WHAT)
I continue to marvel that no one seems to be betting what's been pure gold. That is, to bet against the San Francisco 49ers in the first quarter in every game.
I started touting this late last season and then touted this as the best prop on the board before the season started, publicly stating on a podcast with Wicked Chops and Gavin Smith in early September that this was going to be a sure moneymaker.
Well, it's gone a perfect 4-0 so far this season. Since C. Kaepernick has been the starter, the 49ers have been a dreadful first quarter performer, going a whopping 1-10 against the line in 11 games -- the lone cover coming in a 7-0 first quarter score at New England late last November (when they fumbled 3 times). What's best about this prop is, we are just about always GETTING points by taking the other side, since this is a very public team at the moment. Yet San Francisco averages less than 3 points per game in the 1Q (since Kaepernick started). I don't know how you can't continue to fade this team in every similar situation.
This week, we get a very live Houston team coming off a brutally disappointing loss where they vastly outplayed Seattle. Although on the road this week, this should be a favorable spot for the dog if you can stomach wagering on M. Shaub after last week's meltdown.
BET ON ATLANTA IN FIRST QUARTER AGAINST NY JETS
While previous results don't necessarily dictate future outcomes, I believe there's relevance to numbers and game preparation. Some coaches/coordinators/quarterbacks come out aggressively. Others like to play conservative and then make adjustments as the game plays out. This is especially true with less-experienced starting quarterbacks..
Here's a prime example of a game with two very different team mentalities in the first quarter. Looking at the four games played this season, ATL is scoring 8.5 points per 1Q (2nd best in the NFL despite a 1-3 record). NY Jets are scoring 3 points per 1Q, which ranks 25th.
This fits a well established pattern dating back three seasons. I stress THREE seasons here because that's pretty much the length of time for consistency in coaching and starters. Since personnel is somewhat similar 2010 to present for both teams, I believe these numbers are significant.
2012 -- ATL 6.2 points average vs. NYJ 3.6 points average
2011 -- ATL 7.1 points average vs. NYJ 3.8 points average
2010 -- ATL 4.5 points average vs. NYJ 1.9 points average
This shows ATL has been consistently outscoring NYJ as a first quarter team over the past 3.25 seasons (even though NYJ were a contending team at least two of those seasons).
If we add the MNF home team coming off a loss and rookie Smith taking snaps for Jets, I think this points to a very strong play on the Falcons in the first quarter on MNF.
More coming if I have time to post.
-- Nolan Dalla
