NFL YTD (11-7)
After having a few great weeks I hit a bump in the road last week, going 1-4. A couple of those losses were improbable beats, but a loss is a loss is a loss. I originally planned on only playing a couple games this weekend, but that went out the window after doing some more analysis. The picks...
NYG/KC (Over 47.5) I think this will be a shootout. Although the Giants play better both defensively and overall at home, they are pretty banged up for this game. I expect the injuries to hit them pretty hard on the defensive side of the ball. Furthermore, KC can put up a lot of points and I don't see that changing this weekend. Larry Johnson is a premiere back in this league and KC's passing game has been shredding opponents. Also, this is a must-win game for KC. Expect them to come out firing. On the flip side, Eli Manning can look like the worst QB in the world on the road, but not at home. I expect him, the Tiki torch and Jeremy Shockey all to have big games. KC's defense is far from impressive and I wouldn't be surprised to see them give up more than 30 to the Gigantes. I think this game will easily sail over 50 points.
SD (+7.5 and ML) Easily my favorite game of the week. Not just for the betting aspect, but I think it's going to be a great game. This game is not about x's and o's to me. You have two contrasting mindsets at work here... the Chargers MUST win this game if they want to just MAKE the playoffs. They got caught looking ahead last week and now they have backed themselves into a corner. They're going to come out and play their asses off. The Colts, on the other hand, just wrapped up homefield throughout the playoffs with last week's win. They WANT to win this Sunday, but they don't have to. And don't think that won't be in the back of their minds. I love the fact that the Colts were celebrating with cigars after last weekend's win. That pretty much tells me they feel like they've accomplished what they set out to accomplish in the regular season. Like I said, they WANT to win on Sunday, but they know they don't have to. Lastly, after saying he would play all of his starters Dungy is now saying he will rest guys who are a little nicked up. This game will come down to who wants it more. Gotta think that's SD in this spot.
Chicago (-3) This game is just a no-brainer to me. To get the better team at home, coming off a loss, laying only a FG, AND having the #1 defense in the NFL going against Ron Mexico, the only play seems to be Daaaaaaa Bears. The Falcons run the ball like a mofo, but the Bears have a great run D. They have ridiculous speed on defense, which will limit Vick's effectiveness when he scrambles. They also have the best red zone defense in the NFL as well. In a game where weather should be a factor, that is HUGE. Field goal attempts will be iffy at best, so I just don't see how the Falcons can put many points on the board. The Bears never score many points either, but covering 3 shouldn't be a problem.
Mia/NYJ (Under 35) There isn't too much analysis to this one. The Jets somehow put up 26 points last week, which is about 4 weeks worth of games for them. Neither one of these teams has much in the way of an offense, and both teams have respectable defenses. I fully expect the Jets to be held to 10 points or less. That means the Jets would only have to hold Miami under 25. I don't think that will be a problem. Take the under.
TB (+5) So suddenly the entire world is back on the Patriots bandwagon huh? Just a couple of weeks ago everyone was talking about how terrible they were and how they had fallen from grace... blah, blah, blah. I know they are a little more healthy now than they were then, but I guess I'm still not sold on them being the "Patriots of old." TB comes into Foxboro with the #2 defense in the NFL and one of the better running games. Chris Simms continues to get better with each passing week and the Patriots secondary is God-awful. There's also a lot more on the line for the Bucs than there is for the Pats. It's always tough to win in Foxboro, but I don't need the Bucs to do that. In a game that figures to be very low-scoring, I think getting the 5 is a gift.
After having a few great weeks I hit a bump in the road last week, going 1-4. A couple of those losses were improbable beats, but a loss is a loss is a loss. I originally planned on only playing a couple games this weekend, but that went out the window after doing some more analysis. The picks...
NYG/KC (Over 47.5) I think this will be a shootout. Although the Giants play better both defensively and overall at home, they are pretty banged up for this game. I expect the injuries to hit them pretty hard on the defensive side of the ball. Furthermore, KC can put up a lot of points and I don't see that changing this weekend. Larry Johnson is a premiere back in this league and KC's passing game has been shredding opponents. Also, this is a must-win game for KC. Expect them to come out firing. On the flip side, Eli Manning can look like the worst QB in the world on the road, but not at home. I expect him, the Tiki torch and Jeremy Shockey all to have big games. KC's defense is far from impressive and I wouldn't be surprised to see them give up more than 30 to the Gigantes. I think this game will easily sail over 50 points.
SD (+7.5 and ML) Easily my favorite game of the week. Not just for the betting aspect, but I think it's going to be a great game. This game is not about x's and o's to me. You have two contrasting mindsets at work here... the Chargers MUST win this game if they want to just MAKE the playoffs. They got caught looking ahead last week and now they have backed themselves into a corner. They're going to come out and play their asses off. The Colts, on the other hand, just wrapped up homefield throughout the playoffs with last week's win. They WANT to win this Sunday, but they don't have to. And don't think that won't be in the back of their minds. I love the fact that the Colts were celebrating with cigars after last weekend's win. That pretty much tells me they feel like they've accomplished what they set out to accomplish in the regular season. Like I said, they WANT to win on Sunday, but they know they don't have to. Lastly, after saying he would play all of his starters Dungy is now saying he will rest guys who are a little nicked up. This game will come down to who wants it more. Gotta think that's SD in this spot.
Chicago (-3) This game is just a no-brainer to me. To get the better team at home, coming off a loss, laying only a FG, AND having the #1 defense in the NFL going against Ron Mexico, the only play seems to be Daaaaaaa Bears. The Falcons run the ball like a mofo, but the Bears have a great run D. They have ridiculous speed on defense, which will limit Vick's effectiveness when he scrambles. They also have the best red zone defense in the NFL as well. In a game where weather should be a factor, that is HUGE. Field goal attempts will be iffy at best, so I just don't see how the Falcons can put many points on the board. The Bears never score many points either, but covering 3 shouldn't be a problem.
Mia/NYJ (Under 35) There isn't too much analysis to this one. The Jets somehow put up 26 points last week, which is about 4 weeks worth of games for them. Neither one of these teams has much in the way of an offense, and both teams have respectable defenses. I fully expect the Jets to be held to 10 points or less. That means the Jets would only have to hold Miami under 25. I don't think that will be a problem. Take the under.
TB (+5) So suddenly the entire world is back on the Patriots bandwagon huh? Just a couple of weeks ago everyone was talking about how terrible they were and how they had fallen from grace... blah, blah, blah. I know they are a little more healthy now than they were then, but I guess I'm still not sold on them being the "Patriots of old." TB comes into Foxboro with the #2 defense in the NFL and one of the better running games. Chris Simms continues to get better with each passing week and the Patriots secondary is God-awful. There's also a lot more on the line for the Bucs than there is for the Pats. It's always tough to win in Foxboro, but I don't need the Bucs to do that. In a game that figures to be very low-scoring, I think getting the 5 is a gift.
