FLORIDA -3

[AU2001]

mybookie has it at -3.

Here's logic rather than emotion:

Shula has yet to beat LSU, Tenn, Auburn, or Georgia. He also lost Oklahoma at home.

The only ranked team Alabama has beaten under Shula was #24 Southern Miss last season. Side note: the ONLY reason Southern Miss was ranked is because their game with Cal (which they later lost), was postponed because of a hurricane.

Auburn has NEVER lost at Bryant-Denny, and I can't remember the last time Tenn, UGA, or LSU did. Also, up until last week, both Phil Fulmer and Tommy Tubberville had just as many conference wins there as Shula with 3.

Urban Meyer vs. Mike Shula (Who would you rather have?)

Meyer was wrestled away from Utah and an offer from Notre Dame by Florida because of his records at Utah and Bowling Green. Shula was given a contract extension for going 10-15.

Chris Leak vs. Brodie Croyle?

Leak wins no contest. That's assuming Brodie stays healthy for all 4 quarters.

Florida has rolled in 3 games, and they are much more battle-tested having won their game against Tennessee, even though they did not play their best game.

Alabama has played a very soft schedule so far, and they have only looked good in one game. They played very sloppy against Ark, USM, and MTSU.

This game looks a lot to me like UA/USC, where the Tide should have been at least an 8 point favorite. (I took UA in that game, for those out there that think I am betting with emotion on this one). I'm simply taking the better team with the better coach, and take it from me as an Auburn fan, winning at Bryant-Denny is not that tough to do. (Covering the spread may be)

So all of a sudden, the Tide gets the media behind them because they are healthy and undefeated, and everybody wants to see Shula do something besides get drilled at home by a ranked opponent and it's supposed to just happen. I will have to see it to believe it.

I'm not buying the hype. Florida is much better team and unless they turn it over, they should roll by double digits!!! The only thing that worries me is this line should have been -7 at least. IMO, they are giving too much credit to home field advantage.

Keep in mind, the Tide is 0-5 all-time against top 5 opponents in Bryant-Denny.

:clap: :clap: :clap: :clap: :clap: :clap: :clap:

 

[agentjmw]

Im going to cut and paste some of this from my other post. Try and play Devil's advocate to the poster.
Alabama covered at home last year against an undefeated Auburn.(Top 5 team?)
Alabama covered against Oklahoma at home in 03.
Alabama covered against Tenn on road last year
Alabama covered e against Oklahoma in 02.

We play for money here, so lets talk money. They covered the nut.

Shula ? nah you win that one.
Leak or Broyle. Probably lean towards Croyle in this game. Simply because Leak will not have time to throw the ball. Leak will be hit hard and often.
I can't believe you actually wrote this:

"as an Auburn fan, winning at Bryant-Denny is not that tough to do. (Covering the spread may be)"
What are we talking about AU2001? You give the impression that Alabama has been blown out at home year after year. When the fact is they have covered as a home dog most of the time. What was AU's record last year when the went to Tuscaloosa? What was their rank when Alabama shut out Ronnie Brown, Jason Cambell, and The Cadillac, the first half? Zero points the first half. And Alabama lost, but covered the nut, and paid.
You do readers of this forum a diservice by posting BS. You sound like one of those guys hyping a stock.
Its going to be a heck of a game. I will offer this advice to anyone considering playing . If you are playing Florida get in early. The line will go higher. If you are playing Alabama wait. Unless you are in Alabama. The line is going to drop here. And if Alabama is ahead by more than 7 at the half, go with FLA at the half due to Shula BOL.

And don't be a negative Nelly. You guys were National Champs according to The Opelika News.

 

[pt1gard]

again, as far as I have ever seen, and being a bengal fan too--shula cant coach

 

[wareagle]

Im going to cut and paste some of this from my other post. Try and play Devil's advocate to the poster.
Alabama covered at home last year against an undefeated Auburn.(Top 5 team?)
Alabama covered against Oklahoma at home in 03.
Alabama covered against Tenn on road last year
Alabama covered e against Oklahoma in 02.

We play for money here, so lets talk money. They covered the nut.

Shula ? nah you win that one.
Leak or Broyle. Probably lean towards Croyle in this game. Simply because Leak will not have time to throw the ball. Leak will be hit hard and often.
I can't believe you actually wrote this:

"as an Auburn fan, winning at Bryant-Denny is not that tough to do. (Covering the spread may be)"
What are we talking about AU2001? You give the impression that Alabama has been blown out at home year after year. When the fact is they have covered as a home dog most of the time. What was AU's record last year when the went to Tuscaloosa? What was their rank when Alabama shut out Ronnie Brown, Jason Cambell, and The Cadillac, the first half? Zero points the first half. And Alabama lost, but covered the nut, and paid.
You do readers of this forum a diservice by posting BS. You sound like one of those guys hyping a stock.
Its going to be a heck of a game. I will offer this advice to anyone considering playing . If you are playing Florida get in early. The line will go higher. If you are playing Alabama wait. Unless you are in Alabama. The line is going to drop here. And if Alabama is ahead by more than 7 at the half, go with FLA at the half due to Shula BOL.

And don't be a negative Nelly. You guys were National Champs according to The Opelika News.

i have some things to say tommorrow, but cmon take your crimson glasses off as i have with my blue and orange shades...i dont know who you are a fan of,but my guess is bama or maybe TN or OM...You continue to attack us...auburn has beat whomever you are a fan of....

the game at hand is UF/UA.... i believe the tide win this game S/U...not because of shula, but because of bama D, running game, and Brodie....i had a dream brodie gets injured in this game :sadwave: ...i hope i am wrong, cause brodie is a great college QB...

 

[GolfGuruAU]

Completely agree with AU2001. Alabama is getting way to much credit. They have one of the most quiet stadiums in the SEC. Home field will not be a factor. Until Mike Fin Shula can win a big game I will always bet against him. Florida minus the 3.5 is a gift. Do not pass this up. For the record I am a student at Auburn. I am also an avid fan of the entire SEC. I have many friends that are Bama fans and I know ezactly what kind of team they have. Alabama's inexperienced offensive line and wide receivers will not get it done. Not to mention the depth issues at almost every position. An injury here of there and its all over. Good start for Bama but the last half of the season will tell the tale. Oh and since I am a homer, Auburn is the lock this week.

 

[AU2001]

Im going to cut and paste some of this from my other post. Try and play Devil's advocate to the poster.
Alabama covered at home last year against an undefeated Auburn.(Top 5 team?)
Alabama covered against Oklahoma at home in 03.
Alabama covered against Tenn on road last year
Alabama covered e against Oklahoma in 02.

We play for money here, so lets talk money. They covered the nut.

Shula ? nah you win that one.
Leak or Broyle. Probably lean towards Croyle in this game. Simply because Leak will not have time to throw the ball. Leak will be hit hard and often.
I can't believe you actually wrote this:

"as an Auburn fan, winning at Bryant-Denny is not that tough to do. (Covering the spread may be)"
What are we talking about AU2001? You give the impression that Alabama has been blown out at home year after year. When the fact is they have covered as a home dog most of the time. What was AU's record last year when the went to Tuscaloosa? What was their rank when Alabama shut out Ronnie Brown, Jason Cambell, and The Cadillac, the first half? Zero points the first half. And Alabama lost, but covered the nut, and paid.
You do readers of this forum a diservice by posting BS. You sound like one of those guys hyping a stock.
Its going to be a heck of a game. I will offer this advice to anyone considering playing . If you are playing Florida get in early. The line will go higher. If you are playing Alabama wait. Unless you are in Alabama. The line is going to drop here. And if Alabama is ahead by more than 7 at the half, go with FLA at the half due to Shula BOL.

And don't be a negative Nelly. You guys were National Champs according to The Opelika News.

OK, when was the last time UA beat anyone worth a shit in Bryant-Denny? LSU in 1999 is my guess.

Take UF ml-160 if it makes you feel better.

Obviously you are a Bamer that has learned to celebrate things like covering the spread and moral victories, while ignoring the facts that coaches like Tommy Tubberville, Phil Fulmer, Nick Saban, Bob Stoops, and Mark Richt treat your team like Ike Turner treated Tina!

 

[agentjmw]

I simply showed him an example. Looking at his name it was easy to see where he was coming from. He wrote about Alabama being 0-5 at Tuscaloosa. I pointed out, the dif between your team winning, and your team covering. Big dif on a sports betting forum. If you also read my post Im saying it should be a tight game. Crimson glasses huh? Me writing If Alabama is ahead by more than 7 at the half go with FLA at the half makes me a homer. So be it. For the record. I went to Alabama. Made as much money betting against them as on them. Also for the record, I have played one Alabama game this year. I lost betting against them. Yes, AU should wipe the turf with SC this weekend. Only problem I see at AU is looking ahead to LSU before ARK game. Im impressed with AU this year. But what do I know? If I had all the answers to gambling, I wouldnt be babbling in here .... Just another gambler looking for an edge. But believe me, I would have no problem putting money on the other side. I made a killing on AU at the half last year playing bama.

 

[AU2001]

Im going to cut and paste some of this from my other post. Try and play Devil's advocate to the poster.
Alabama covered at home last year against an undefeated Auburn.(Top 5 team?)
Alabama covered against Oklahoma at home in 03.
Alabama covered against Tenn on road last year
Alabama covered e against Oklahoma in 02.

What great logic! UA covers 4 random games, so they will cover this one right?

Was the spread less than 7 for any of these games? NO

Did Alabama keep any of these games within 3 points? NO

Did Alabama shit their pants in the second half and get their asses kicked in ALL of these games? YES!!!

You Bamers make me laugh...

 

[agentjmw]

Relax man. No reason to get worked up into a lather. Make your play. You called the man and got down, right? Im simply making the game a pass as its to close to call for me. For the record, Fulmer and Tubbs could run a train on Alabama, as long as my $ is on them. I dont see Crimson and White, Orange and Ble. I want to see green.

"as an Auburn fan, winning at Bryant-Denny is not that tough to do. (Covering the spread may be)"
AU2001

 

[AU2001]

If the line was 7 or above, like all the games you mentioned UA covering, I would pass as well. But getting UF and only laying a field goal makes sense to me. We will see...

 

[mw]

Bama is underrated, but UF is the right side in this one.

 

[Bama6895]

Obviously you are a Bamer that has learned to celebrate things like covering the spread and moral victories

This is a sports betting forum, hence I would guess that EVERYONE here celebrates covering the spread. People here are trying to pick winning bets not who wins a game (most of the time).

Also someone else stated that our o-line and WRs were inexperienced. Our o-line is certainly a work in progress and must grow up quickly if Alabama is to have a chance. However our WR group is all sophomores and 1 junior. Every single one of them played all of last year. Hence they are pretty experienced.

We don't have depth at most positions, but depth does not come into play unless there are injuries. Alabama is very healthy right now. I agree that depth is a major factor when examining a team over the lengthe of a season. I don't see it as a big factor in this game coming up.

Just my 2 cents. I will not be betting this game. I think it could go either way and I also stay the hell away from betting on a game invovling my team.

Good luck to everyone this week, no matter what side you have. And I also agree with the guy that said AU was a lock this week. I predict about 17 plus win for AU with Irons running for about 120. USC can't stop the run.

 

[Blackman]

I posted this in another thread, you can find stats to support Florida as well:

Bama is 4-12 last 16 SEC games, 2-11 vs last 13 ranked teams (1 of the wins vs #25 so miss), and only 11-7 last 18 @ home

Florida is 10-6 last 16 on the rd with wins vs FSU, LSU, Tenn, and Georgia twice

 

[wareagle]

This is a sports betting forum, hence I would guess that EVERYONE here celebrates covering the spread. People here are trying to pick winning bets not who wins a game (most of the time).

Also someone else stated that our o-line and WRs were inexperienced. Our o-line is certainly a work in progress and must grow up quickly if Alabama is to have a chance. However our WR group is all sophomores and 1 junior. Every single one of them played all of last year. Hence they are pretty experienced.

We don't have depth at most positions, but depth does not come into play unless there are injuries. Alabama is very healthy right now. I agree that depth is a major factor when examining a team over the lengthe of a season. I don't see it as a big factor in this game coming up.

Just my 2 cents. I will not be betting this game. I think it could go either way and I also stay the hell away from betting on a game invovling my team.

Good luck to everyone this week, no matter what side you have. And I also agree with the guy that said AU was a lock this week. I predict about 17 plus win for AU with Irons running for about 120. USC can't stop the run.

WHERE THE HELL HAVE YOU BEEN???

 

[taoist]

WHERE THE HELL HAVE YOU BEEN???

No chit!!! :scared ...good to see you posting...even if it's once in a blue moon.

 

[Cohanick]

Alabama looks good but i cant deny the truth. Its been a while since they were really a presence in the SEC and Florida will prove to be an extremely tough matchup for them. Although i strongly believe the game could go both ways, im certainly not going to risk anything on this game.

GL !!!

 

[Juu3]

Well Co, it's one thing if your not gonna bet on the game but it's another when you don't think we're not going to put this team away.

You boyz can talk about Florida and how this game is the biggest game for Shula but you have failed to recognize that this game is more about Kines and Croyle than anything!

Kines is gonna display a nice defensive game and in the closing seconds we may just see why we hung on to our boy Croyle!

 

[BigSlick]

As a UF fan, I must admit that the UA defense worries me - I see them stopping UF's running game much in the same way UT did. I feel UF has a pretty good chance to win, but only throwing the ball to (what I believe to be) the best receiver corps in the SEC (but I also think UA has the best 2ndary in the SEC, so I don't see it as too big of an advantage). Also, Leak is putting up numbers that, although not gaudy, show he's maturing as a manager: 9TDs/0Ints, 70% completion rate (even higher on 3rd and 4th downs). I can see him leading a final drive in the last minutes to win the game.

On the other side of the ball, I think UF's defense will cause UA serious problems - most importantly in the passing game. UA's receivers had serious problems getting checked at the line against Arkansas LW. Under UF's new scheme this year, man 2 man cover (with the DBs stuffing the CBs at the line) has been their forte. Moreover, UF has established a heavy reliance on LB and Safety blitzes. Look at the UT game - UT had huge, highly touted receivers that were harassed at the line and made few plays. In the meantime, the UT QBs were running for their lives from blitzing CBs/LBs. I see Croyle heading to the locker room early - he shows a propensity to getting injured.

I don't see UA scoring more than 20 points. That being said, I see UF only scoring 23/24 - not enough for me to make a play on the line. I may, however, play the ML and the under - both seperately and in a parlay.

Just my 2 cents.

 

[Juu3]

Enjoyed the write up Slick, but, if you think Leak is gonna drive down the field on our defense in the last few min/sec, well, :mj07:

"laughable main"

 

[BigSlick]

Enjoyed the write up Slick, but, if you think Leak is gonna drive down the field on our defense in the last few min/sec, well, :mj07:

"laughable main"

What was so laughable, Jesus (I can only assume thats a Lebowski quote)?

Do you think UF will blow the doors off of UA so there will be no need for a winning drive by Leak?

Regardless, I think it will be a close game and, with that being said, I'd much rather have Leak in control of my team than Croyle. Leak has beaten the top tier SEC teams at home and on the road. I can't recall Croyle ever doing that even once in his career (although I may be wrong, he may have won an important game ... once). The only thing Croyle has been known for thus far in his career is getting folded up like a human lawnchair.

UA is a good team - should be a good game. I think the line is pretty fair, so I'll stick with the under.