Florida State (6-5) at (1) Florida (11-0)

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Florida State (6-5) at (1) Florida (11-0)



Saturday, November 28th, 3:30 p.m. (et)


GAME NOTES: The top-ranked Florida Gators seek a flawless regular season, as they close things out this weekend in Gainesville with their annual showdown with Sunshine State rival Florida State.

The defending national champions are just two victories away from playing for yet another national title, but must first get by the Seminoles this week and second-ranked Alabama in the SEC Championship Game on December 5th. Urban Meyer's team ran the nation's longest current win streak to 21 straight games, with last weekend's 62-3 drubbing of FIU. It also pushed the team to 11-0 for just the second time in school history.

The Seminoles have been plagued with inconsistency this season, but last week's 29-26 victory over Maryland made FSU bowl eligible for an NCAA-leading 28th straight season. Bobby Bowden's squad has won two straight games, but is just 6-5 on the year, including a 4-4 mark in ACC play.

Florida leads the all-time series with FSU, 32-19-2, including wins in each of the last five meetings.

The Seminoles relied heavily on the steady play under center from QB Christian Ponder, but the savvy signal-caller went down a few games ago with a shoulder injury and has not played since. The reins of the offense have been turned over to freshman EJ Manuel, but he has certainly had huge shoes to fill. The results have been mixed, as Manuel has completed a respectable 64.7 percent of his passes, but has thrown just one TD pass against four interceptions. Bert Reed and Rod Owens are the top options downfield and are tied for the team- lead in receptions (53), combining for over 1,300 yards.

The ground game in Tallahassee has been emphasized a little bit more of late, headlined by tailback Jermaine Thomas, who paces the team with 690 yards and seven TDs on the year.

The offense is often bolstered by freshman Greg Reid, who averages 18.4 yards per punt return with one taken back for a TD.

Defensively, FSU has had big problems against both the run (193.5 ypg) and the pass (240.9 ypg). In addition, foes have scored 83 percent of the time in the red zone and 69 percent of red zone opportunities have resulted in touchdowns.

Sophomore LB Nigel Bradham currently paces the team in tackles with 76, with junior LB Kendall Smith a close second (74 tackles). However, the heart-and- soul of the stop unit is senior LB Dekoda Watson (52 tackles, 9.0 TFLs, 4.5 sacks).

Eight different players scored TDs against FIU last week and that is where Florida's real strength lies, its versatility.

All-American Tim Tebow leads an offense that is as balanced as any in the country, averaging over 200 yards on the ground and through the air. Tebow paces the team in both areas, rushing for 706 yards and 11 TDs, while passing for 1,945 yards and 14 more scores thus far.

Tebow will be playing in his last game in Gainesville, something he is very aware of heading into this matchup.

"I'll try to prepare myself. I'm not going to think about it too much to be honest with you. It'll probably just happen. It will probably be pretty emotional, pretty exciting, overwhelming to say the least. I'm excited about it. Kind of sad it's my last opportunity, but also excited that it'll be that special of a moment, too."

There are plenty of complementary players in both areas as well, with tailbacks Jeff Demps (7.1 ypc, seven TDs) and Chris Rainey (6.2 ypc, four TDs) bolstering the ground game, while tight end Aaron Hernandez (46 receptions, for 571 yards, two TDs) and wideout Riley Cooper (38 receptions, for 641 yards, seven TDs) highlight the play downfield.

It doesn't get any better on the defensive side of the football, than the product coming out of Gainesville. The Gators lead the nation in scoring defense (9.8 ppg) and pass defense (139.3 ypg), while ranking second in total defense (229.8 ypg).

There is All-American talent at every level of the defense, starting with linebackers Ryan Stamper (team-high 64 tackles, 5.5 TFLs, 2.5 sacks, two INTs) and Brandon Spikes (50 tackles, 3.0 sacks, two INTs). The secondary features Joe Haden (57 tackles, three sacks, three INTs) and Ahmad Black (54 tackles, one INT), while the defensive front is headlined by rush ends Jermaine Cunningham (11.5 TFLs, 7.0 sacks) and Carlos Dunlap (7.5 TFLs, 6.0 sacks).

The Seminoles will struggle on both sides of the ball in this one. The Gators have their eyes one the prize, and won't slip up now, especially in Tebow's fairwell game in the Swamp.

Predicted Outcome: Florida 38, Florida State 10
 

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College Football Matchup - Florida State at (1) Florida

Florida State Seminoles (6-5) at (1) Florida Gators (11-0)
Date: Saturday, November 28th
Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. (et)
Site: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium (88,548) -- Gainesville, Florida
Surface: Natural Grass
Home Record: Florida State 3-3; Florida 6-0
Away Record: Florida State 3-2; Florida 4-0
Neutral Record: Florida State 0-0; Florida 1-0
Versus Opposing Conference: Florida State vs. SEC (59-66-6)
Versus Opposing Conference: Florida vs. ACC (110-93-11)
Current Road Win/Loss Streak: Florida State 1W
Current Home Win/Loss Streak: Florida 10W
Television: CBS
Announcers: Verne Lundquist, Gary Danielson and Tracy Wolfson
All-Time Series: Florida (32-19-2)
Last Meeting: November 29, 2008 (Florida, 45-15 at Florida State)
Series Streak: Florida has won the last five meetings.

Season Schedule/Results
Florida State Seminoles
Sep 7 - L vs. Miami-Florida, 34-38
Sep 12 - W vs. Jacksonville St, 19-9
Sep 19 - W at B-Y-U, 54-28
Sep 26 - L vs. So Florida, 7-17
Oct 3 - L at Boston College, 21-28
Oct 10 - L vs. Georgia Tech, 44-49
Oct 17 - Open
Oct 22 - W at North Carolina, 30-27
Oct 31 - W vs. NC State, 45-42
Nov 7 - L at Clemson, 24-40
Nov 14 - W at Wake Forest, 41-28
Nov 21 - W vs. Maryland, 29-26
Nov 28 - at Florida, 3:30 PM
Florida Gators
Sep 5 - W vs. Char Southern, 62-3
Sep 12 - W vs. Troy, 56-6
Sep 19 - W vs. Tennessee, 23-13
Sep 26 - W at Kentucky, 41-7
Oct 3 - Open
Oct 10 - W at L-S-U, 13-3
Oct 17 - W vs. Arkansas, 23-20
Oct 24 - W at Miss State, 29-19
Oct 31 - W vs. Georgia, 41-17 (at Jacksonville, FL)
Nov 7 - W vs. Vanderbilt, 27-3
Nov 14 - W at So Carolina, 24-14
Nov 21 - W vs. FIU, 62-3
Nov 28 - vs. Florida State, 3:30 PM
Dec 5 - vs. Alabama, 4:00 PM (SEC Championship)
 

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Florida Gators (8-0) (5-0 H) vs Florida State Seminoles (3-4) (2-1 A)

Game Time: 3:30 p.m. EDT Saturday, November 28

Stadium: Florida Field Surface: Grass




RECORD ANALYSIS
STRAIGHT-UP VS. SPREAD OVER/UNDER
Florida State Seminoles HOME AWAY TOTAL HOME AWAY TOTAL HOME AWAY TOTAL

Year-to-Date 3 - 3 3 - 2 6 - 5 0 - 5 3 - 2 3 - 7 3 - 2 5 - 0 8 - 2
Last 5 games 2 - 0 2 - 1 4 - 1 0 - 2 2 - 1 2 - 3 1 - 1 3 - 0 4 - 1
YTD vs. Conf. 2 - 2 2 - 2 4 - 4 0 - 4 2 - 2 2 - 6 3 - 1 4 - 0 7 - 1
STRAIGHT-UP VS. SPREAD OVER/UNDER
Florida Gators HOME AWAY TOTAL HOME AWAY TOTAL HOME AWAY TOTAL
Year-to-Date 7 - 0 4 - 0 11 - 0 3 - 3 1 - 2 4 - 5 1 - 2 0 - 4 1 - 6
Last 5 games 3 - 0 2 - 0 5 - 0 2 - 1 0 - 2 2 - 3 1 - 0 0 - 2 1 - 2
YTD vs. Conf. 4 - 0 4 - 0 8 - 0 1 - 3 1 - 2 2 - 5 1 - 2 0 - 4 1 - 6
AWAY VS. SPREAD HOME VS. SPREAD
Year-to-Date FAV DOG GRASS TURF FAV DOG GRASS TURF
Florida State Seminoles 0 - 1 3 - 1 3 - 1 0 - 1 0 - 5 0 - 0 0 - 5 0 - 0
Florida Gators 1 - 2 0 - 0 1 - 2 0 - 0 3 - 3 0 - 0 3 - 3 0 - 0



TEAM LOGS/SCHEDULE:
( * = overtime)

Florida State Seminoles
LINE OVER/UNDER
DATE DAY OPP SCORE SU OPEN CLOSE ATS &
MARGIN OPEN CLOSE O/U &
MARGIN G/T
09/07/09 Mon MIA 34 - 38 L -4 -6 L -10 47.0 47.0 O +-25.0 G
09/12/09 Sat JAXST 19 - 9 W -0 -0 W 10 NL NL G
09/19/09 Sat @BYU 54 - 28 W +6.5 +8.5 W 34.5 55.0 54.0 O +-28.0 G
09/26/09 Sat SFLA 7 - 17 L -12 -14 L -24 48.0 50.5 U -26.5 G
10/03/09 Sat @BC 21 - 28 L -6 -4 L -11 45.5 46.0 O +- 3.0 T
10/10/09 Sat GATECH 44 - 49 L -4.5 -3 L -8 52.0 56.0 O +-37.0 G
10/22/09 Thu @NC 30 - 27 W +0 +2.5 W 5.5 47.0 48.5 O +- 8.5 G
10/31/09 Sat NCST 45 - 42 W -7 -10 L -7 61.0 65.0 O +-22.0 G
11/07/09 Sat @CLEM 24 - 40 L +8 +8.5 L -7.5 55.0 57.0 O +- 7.0 G
11/14/09 Sat @WF 41 - 28 W +6 +5 W 18 56.0 56.5 O +-12.5 G
11/21/09 Sat MD 29 - 26 W -17 -17 L -14 58.0 56.5 U -1.5 G


Florida Gators
LINE OVER/UNDER
DATE DAY OPP SCORE SU OPEN CLOSE ATS &
MARGIN OPEN CLOSE O/U &
MARGIN G/T
09/05/09 Sat CHARSC 62 - 3 W -0 -0 W 59 NL NL G
09/12/09 Sat TROY 56 - 6 W -34.5 -37 W 13 NL NL G
09/19/09 Sat TN 23 - 13 W -25 -30 L -20 52.5 53.0 U -17.0 G
09/26/09 Sat @KY 41 - 7 W -21 -20 W 14 56.0 53.0 U -5.0 G
10/10/09 Sat @LSU 13 - 3 W -9 -10 L 0 45.5 45.5 U -29.5 G
10/17/09 Sat AR 23 - 20 W -22 -25 L -22 57.0 58.0 U -15.0 G
10/24/09 Sat @MSST 29 - 19 W -24.5 -22.5 L -12.5 49.0 50.0 U -2.0 G
10/31/09 Sat GA 41 - 17 W -17 -16 W 8 48.0 49.5 O +- 8.5 G
11/07/09 Sat VANDY 27 - 3 W -35 -35 L -11 NL NL G
11/14/09 Sat @SC 24 - 14 W -15 -17.5 L -7.5 45.0 44.5 U -6.5 G
11/21/09 Sat FLINTL 62 - 3 W -43 -47 W 12 NL NL G



PREVIOUS MEETINGS:

LINE OVER/UNDER
DATE DAY VIS SC HOM SC OPEN CLOSE ATS &
MARGIN OPEN CLOSE O/U &
MARGIN G/T
11/26/05 Sat FLST 7 FL 34 -5.0 -3.5 FL +23.5 48.0 47.5 U -6.5 G
11/25/06 Sat FL 21 FLST 14 +7 +8.5 FLST +1.5 41.0 43.0 U -8 G
11/24/07 Sat FLST 12 FL 45 -14.5 -14.0 FL +19 56.0 58.5 U -1.5 G
11/29/08 Sat FL 45 FLST 15 +14 +16.5 FLST --13.5 56.0 52.0 O +-8 G




STATISTICAL AVERAGES:


AWAY/HOME RUSHING PASSING TOT TURNOVERS
PTS FD AT YDS AVG AT CO PCT YDS AVG YDS INT FUM
FLST (off) 34.0 23 36 154 4.3 33 24 0.7 284 8.6 438 1.0 0.6
FL (def) 9.3 13 31 99 3.2 28 13 0.5 145 5.2 244 1.4 0.3
RUSHING PASSING TOT TURNOVERS
PTS FD AT YDS AVG AT CO PCT YDS AVG YDS INT FUM
FLST (def) 30.2 22 33 202 6.1 30 18 0.6 226 7.5 428 1.4 1.0
FL (off) 42.0 24 40 226 5.7 27 19 0.7 250 9.3 476 0.1 1.1
ALL GAMES RUSHING PASSING TOT TURNOVERS
PTS FD AT YDS AVG AT CO PCT YDS AVG YDS INT FUM
FLST (off) 31.6 22 32 149 4.7 35 24 0.7 286 8.2 435 1.0 1.2
FL (def) 9.8 13 32 91 2.8 27 14 0.5 139 5.1 230 1.6 0.3
RUSHING PASSING TOT TURNOVERS
PTS FD AT YDS AVG AT CO PCT YDS AVG YDS INT FUM
FLST (def) 30.2 21 38 194 5.1 27 16 0.6 240 8.9 434 1.2 1.0
FL (off) 36.5 23 43 230 5.3 25 16 0.6 213 8.5 443 0.4 0.8



SCORING AVERAGES:

Florida State Seminoles (away) Q1 Q2 H1 Q3 Q4 OT H2+OT
POINTS FOR 8.8 9.2 18 9.0 7.0 0.0 16
POINTS ALLOWED 6.8 9.2 16 5.6 8.6 0.0 14.2



Florida Gators (home) Q1 Q2 H1 Q3 Q4 OT H2+OT
POINTS FOR 7.9 15.7 23.6 10.7 7.7 0.0 18.4
POINTS ALLOWED 0.9 4.1 5 2.3 2.0 0.0 4.3



Florida State Seminoles (all) Q1 Q2 H1 Q3 Q4 OT H2+OT
POINTS FOR 7.8 8.3 16.1 6.5 9.1 0.0 15.6
POINTS ALLOWED 6.2 10.1 16.3 4.7 9.2 0.0 13.9



Florida Gators (all) Q1 Q2 H1 Q3 Q4 OT H2+OT
POINTS FOR 9.3 12.2 21.5 7.4 7.6 0.0 15
POINTS ALLOWED 1.5 4.8 6.3 1.7 1.8 0.0 3.5



VALUE INDEX COMPARISON TO LAS VEGAS LINE:

LV POINTSPREAD VALUE INDEX VALUE INDEX
OPEN CURRENT RATING LINE EDGE
Florida State Seminoles 63 13.0
Florida Gators 67 -8.0
LV OVER/UNDER VALUE INDEX VALUE INDEX
OPEN CURRENT RATING EDGE
OVER/UNDER 51 UNKNOWN
 

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Preview:
Florida State at Florida
When: 3:30 PM ET, Saturday, November 28, 2009
Where: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, Florida

Quick Hits

Overall Team Offense

The Florida Gators are ranked 16 on offense, averaging 442.8 yards per game. The Gators are averaging 229.9 yards rushing and 212.9 yards passing so far this season.

The Florida State Seminoles are ranked 20 on offense, averaging 434.5 yards per game. The Seminoles are averaging 148.5 yards rushing and 286.0 yards passing so far this season.


Home and Away

The Florida Gators are 6-0 at home this season, 8-0 against conference opponents and 3-0 against non-conference opponents.

At home the Gators are averaging 42.2 scoring, and holding teams to 8.0 points scored on defense.

The Florida State Seminoles are 3-2 while on the road this season, 4-4 against conference opponents and 2-1 against non-conference opponents.

On the road, the Seminoles are averaging 34.0 scoring, and holding teams to 30.2 points scored on defense.
 

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Trends - Florida State at No. 1 Florida

Trends - Florida State at No. 1 Florida

Trends - Florida State at No. 1 Florida


ATS Trends

Florida State

Seminoles are 4-1-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog.
Seminoles are 10-4-2 ATS in their last 16 games as an underdog.
Seminoles are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a ATS loss.
Seminoles are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.
Seminoles are 8-21-1 ATS in their last 30 games following a S.U. win.
Seminoles are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
Seminoles are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.


Florida

Gators are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Gators are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Gators are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games in November.
Gators are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
Gators are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
Gators are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Gators are 19-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Gators are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 non-conference games.
Gators are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS win.
Gators are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games following a S.U. win.
Gators are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games as a favorite.
Gators are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games overall.
Gators are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games on grass.
Gators are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games.
Gators are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite.
Gators are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Gators are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.


OU Trends

Florida State

Over is 4-0 in Seminoles last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 10-1 in Seminoles last 11 games as a road underdog.
Over is 6-1 in Seminoles last 7 games overall.
Over is 5-1 in Seminoles last 6 non-conference games.
Over is 5-1 in Seminoles last 6 games on grass.
Over is 13-3 in Seminoles last 16 games as an underdog.
Over is 16-5 in Seminoles last 21 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Under is 9-3 in Seminoles last 12 vs. SEC.
Over is 19-7 in Seminoles last 26 road games.
Over is 19-7 in Seminoles last 26 games following a ATS loss.


Florida


Under is 4-0 in Gators last 4 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
Under is 6-0 in Gators last 6 games following a ATS win.
Under is 7-1 in Gators last 8 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 6-1 in Gators last 7 vs. ACC.
Under is 6-1 in Gators last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 5-1 in Gators last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Under is 4-1 in Gators last 5 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Gators last 5 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 7-2 in Gators last 9 games overall.
Under is 7-2 in Gators last 9 games following a S.U. win.
Under is 7-2 in Gators last 9 games on grass.
Under is 7-2 in Gators last 9 games as a favorite.
Under is 6-2 in Gators last 8 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Under is 6-2 in Gators last 8 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 6-2 in Gators last 8 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater.
Under is 6-2 in Gators last 8 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 8-3 in Gators last 11 non-conference games.
Over is 8-3 in Gators last 11 games in November.
Over is 15-7 in Gators last 22 games as a home favorite.
Over is 15-7 in Gators last 22 home games.


Head to Head

Favorite is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
Home team is 11-4 ATS in their last 15 meetings.
Seminoles are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 meetings in Florida.
Seminoles are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
 

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dunkel index

dunkel index

Game 167-168: Florida State at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Florida State 94.044; Florida 110.869
Dunkel Line: Florida by 17; 60
Vegas Line: Florida by 24 1/2; 56
Dunkel Pick: Florida State (+24 1/2); Over
 
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