Florida's 2009 schedule analysis and forecast
The 2009 Florida Gators probably are the most overwhelming national championship favorites in college football since USC?s Matt Leinart and Reggie Bush were trying to repeat in 2005. Of course, Vince Young and Texas stopped the Trojans? march at history in the 2006 Rose Bowl.
But even those Trojans didn?t have as much coming back as the Gators do, and that's really saying something. The UF defense has every starter back from the same unit that slowed Sam Bradford and Oklahoma in last season?s BCS title game in Miami. Six starters are back on offense, led by likely three-time Heisman finalist Tim Tebow at quarterback. Receiver/running back Percy Harvin went to the NFL, but the Gators have a load of prep All-Americans ready to plug in there.
There?s no question this is the most talented (and fastest) team in the country. But will it be the hungriest, or will Florida falter like it did after winning the 2006 title? Wearing the bullseye can wear teams down over the course of a season. Those 2007 Gators lost four games, including three in the SEC.
Here?s Florida?s 2009 schedule (times remain in flux):
September 5 vs. Charleston Southern
September 12 vs. Troy
September 19 vs. Tennessee
September 26 at Kentucky
October 10 at LSU
October 17 vs. Arkansas
October 24 at Mississippi State
October 31 vs. Georgia (Jacksonville)
November 7 vs. Vanderbilt
November 14 at South Carolina
November 21 vs. Florida International
November 28 vs. Florida State
Florida?s over/under for regular-season wins is 11, meaning oddsmakers at BetUS actually think the Gators will lose one. But if you see a game on here that Florida won?t be favored, I?d like to know which one.
Only four games outside of the Sunshine State?
UF will romp through September, no doubt. Some might think Tennessee has a chance on Sept. 19 in Gainesville. Remember all the trash new Vols coach Lane Kiffin has been talking about Urban Meyer and his program, right? That one could get ugly.
Florida?s only realistic chance at a loss comes in October. I would give LSU a decent shot, but the Gators have a week off to prepare prior to that tilt. I might argue Arkansas could be a test, because Florida tends to play one bad game a year at home to an inferior opponent (see Ole Miss last year).
I also think that Arkansas is a bit of a trap because UF faces former offensive coordinator Dan Mullen the next week (Mullen is the new head coach at Mississippi State).
I don?t expect Georgia, which has to replace Matthew Stafford and Knowshon Moreno, has much of a shot. Let?s say the Gators go 3-1 here, getting upset by either Arkansas or Mississippi State. Remember that Florida hasn?t gone unbeaten in conference play in 13 years.
November shouldn?t be much of a challenge, at least in the SEC. Vandy has lost 18 straight in the series and South Carolina has allowed 50-plus points in the past two meetings with Florida.
FIU is simply a schedule-filler, which allows the Gators to basically prepare for Florida State in the season finale. If the game were in Tallahassee, maybe Bobby Bowden pulls the upset, but not in Gainesville the week before the SEC title game.
Florida is -800 to win the SEC East and that?s a lock. The defending champs are -300 to win the SEC title and the favorite - at +180 - to win the national title. Do the Gators play in that game with one loss?
The 2009 Florida Gators probably are the most overwhelming national championship favorites in college football since USC?s Matt Leinart and Reggie Bush were trying to repeat in 2005. Of course, Vince Young and Texas stopped the Trojans? march at history in the 2006 Rose Bowl.
But even those Trojans didn?t have as much coming back as the Gators do, and that's really saying something. The UF defense has every starter back from the same unit that slowed Sam Bradford and Oklahoma in last season?s BCS title game in Miami. Six starters are back on offense, led by likely three-time Heisman finalist Tim Tebow at quarterback. Receiver/running back Percy Harvin went to the NFL, but the Gators have a load of prep All-Americans ready to plug in there.
There?s no question this is the most talented (and fastest) team in the country. But will it be the hungriest, or will Florida falter like it did after winning the 2006 title? Wearing the bullseye can wear teams down over the course of a season. Those 2007 Gators lost four games, including three in the SEC.
Here?s Florida?s 2009 schedule (times remain in flux):
September 5 vs. Charleston Southern
September 12 vs. Troy
September 19 vs. Tennessee
September 26 at Kentucky
October 10 at LSU
October 17 vs. Arkansas
October 24 at Mississippi State
October 31 vs. Georgia (Jacksonville)
November 7 vs. Vanderbilt
November 14 at South Carolina
November 21 vs. Florida International
November 28 vs. Florida State
Florida?s over/under for regular-season wins is 11, meaning oddsmakers at BetUS actually think the Gators will lose one. But if you see a game on here that Florida won?t be favored, I?d like to know which one.
Only four games outside of the Sunshine State?
UF will romp through September, no doubt. Some might think Tennessee has a chance on Sept. 19 in Gainesville. Remember all the trash new Vols coach Lane Kiffin has been talking about Urban Meyer and his program, right? That one could get ugly.
Florida?s only realistic chance at a loss comes in October. I would give LSU a decent shot, but the Gators have a week off to prepare prior to that tilt. I might argue Arkansas could be a test, because Florida tends to play one bad game a year at home to an inferior opponent (see Ole Miss last year).
I also think that Arkansas is a bit of a trap because UF faces former offensive coordinator Dan Mullen the next week (Mullen is the new head coach at Mississippi State).
I don?t expect Georgia, which has to replace Matthew Stafford and Knowshon Moreno, has much of a shot. Let?s say the Gators go 3-1 here, getting upset by either Arkansas or Mississippi State. Remember that Florida hasn?t gone unbeaten in conference play in 13 years.
November shouldn?t be much of a challenge, at least in the SEC. Vandy has lost 18 straight in the series and South Carolina has allowed 50-plus points in the past two meetings with Florida.
FIU is simply a schedule-filler, which allows the Gators to basically prepare for Florida State in the season finale. If the game were in Tallahassee, maybe Bobby Bowden pulls the upset, but not in Gainesville the week before the SEC title game.
Florida is -800 to win the SEC East and that?s a lock. The defending champs are -300 to win the SEC title and the favorite - at +180 - to win the national title. Do the Gators play in that game with one loss?
