Football is fast approaching and (for some) so is the losing streak.

[buddy]

Are you preparing yourself?

Not that it makes a tinkers damn to most, but I spend a lot more time in review than I do handicapping a fresh card.

If I choose a side and lose to the number by 21 points, I ain't goin' to bed till I find out what flaw in my handicapping caused the disaster.

Some may say, "Take it easy, buddy. It's only a friggin' game with an uncertain outcome."

Well, that may be true....but I see it a little differently.

That's why I spend so much time in review.

Good luck to everyone.

 

[yyz]

It's never too early for me to stir the pot..........


You lose a 21 point game mostly due to bad luck.

 

[buddy]

The game's a PK.

You're up by 6 on your opponents 2 yard line.

There's 10 secs left in the game.

Your team lines up to "take a knee".

Qb calls signals.

The center cuts a fart.

Qb fumbles the snap.

Opposing player picks up the fumble and runs 90 some yards for the tying score and the extra point is good.

You lose by a point.

That's stinkin' bad luck (excuse the pun).

Getting blown out by 21 to the number is poor handicapping.

Jmo.

 

[michaeljbird]

I got another one for you buddy. Use the same senario as you did in the above example. Let's say you have Iowa State vs. Boise State in a bowl game. There is less than a minute left, Boise St. has the ball AND the lead on Iowa St.'s 2 yard line,1st and goal. Boise St. is winning by 6 .Iowa St. has 0 time-out's. But Iowa St.,is covering the 8 point spread. All Boise has to do is take a knee and the game is over,right? If you have Iowa St. you can start counting your money, right? If you have Iowa St. +8 you have done a excellent job handicapping the game, right?WRONG . That very senerio happened last year in a bowl game and instead of taking a knee, Boise decided to score a TD.Guess which side I had? Yeah, one of the toughest loses I've ever experienced. So the other thing we have to consider is, Does the coach have a bet on the pointspread? Because there is NO EXCUSE for what he did. I still say is was one of the boldest example's of gambling on a game I've ever seen. There is no other reason anybody would have done that.NONE!!! So we do need to factor in the ole BOGUS,I BET ON THE WRONG SIDE OF THE FIX THEORY.

 

[buddy]

mjb,

Last year, Boise had a motto of "Leave No Doubt".

I suppose that can be interpreted many different ways.

I learned everything I wanted to know about those kinds of games by betting against Spurrier while he was at Florida.

Spurrier was called the "King Of The Covers" and I don't mean woolen blankets. I learned the hard way.

I would ask questions of the old timers about games involving Florida and they would simply say, "no opinion or be careful with that one." Florida -21' @ KENTUCKY. I took KTY plus the points. Bad move, buddy. Fla up by 15 on their own 47. 7 secs left in the game. Spurrier calls time out. The kiss of death. "Hut, hut"...53 yard bomb and you know the kick was good.

Enough of my rambling.

You make a good point.

 

[michaeljbird]

I hear you buddy, It's awful to lose one like that. I remember Lou Holtz once said that he recieved more hate mail and phone call's from pissed off alumni when his team won and DID NOT cover the spread,than he ever did when he lost the game and DID COVER the spread. So knowing the pressure some coaches feel to cover the spread,make's it difficult to take the point's vs. a coach who is known for those 4th quarter cover's. Have you noticed in the last few year's that the running up the score seem's to stop when the spread is no longer in doubt. I've seen this alot where he spread is ,say 28 pts. For some reason they are still trying to score when their up by 24,but when they do and they are up by 31,the play calling turn's conservative. It does amaze me how you can watch it every weekend. I alway's ask myself, What's the difference in those situation's? (up by 24 or 31) and the only logical answer is the pointspread.:shrug:

 

[djv]

Buddy you do work very hard on this. And I think your ideas are dam good. And you should be reward with more winners then losers.
Michaeljbird/Buddy you are correct about some coaches and what they may do in a certain game. soem time the headlines do tell us something.
As for capping coaches. Believe it has to be looked at close. A reason has to be there why some do so very good vs the line. While others do not.