Football wagering compared to other sports

[Nick Douglas]

I originally posted this in the baseball forum today. A few people responded to it positively so I think it is something worth reading for this forum as well. Here is what I wrote.

I want to make a note about NFL wagering. Really football should be the sport that takes the least amount of time out of your handicapping schedule. Even a great football handicapper can generally expect no more than about a 10 unit profit at 1 unit per play, while baseball, basketball and hockey bettors can easily get 25 units of profit in each sport based on 1 unit per play.

The common mistake gamblers make is putting too much emphasis on football betting because it is their favorite sport to watch. Making $100 bets on football while your normal bet is only $20 on other sports is foolish. No matter how strong a handicapper you are, bad seasons happen on occasion and you can break yourself or at least severely damage your bankroll if you head into football season with the idea that it is going to carry your gambling profits for the year. Good luck.

 

[Bombs]

There are several points which need to be made regarding your point.

It is true pulling a huge unit load in football is more difficult, mainly because there are much fewer games. However, if you excel in football, then betting more per unit does make sense. It is only a few days for week, giving the casual handicapper more time to prepare, and thus make legitimate wagers.

While you make the claim that buckets and bases may be better for large unit pulls, they are daily grind sports where your bankroll can go through swings, and you are just as likely to be clueless and get caught in a season long rut, thereby losing your shorts.

So, while you make a valid point that you shouldn't simply throw money on action plays for football, you are completely off base in saying it is a sport that is difficult to make money on. To the contrary, with all the public play, football provides some of the best spots, as long as you have patience and pick your spots. To me, you are more likely to get a true performance and read on your handicap than in any other sport.

Good luck.

 

[Bombs]

Thus, when I go into a baseball season wagering 1-5 units at x dollars per unit, I expect, if I am having a good season, over the course of 162 games, to be able make 25-50 units.

I agree with the sentiment that it is difficult to make over 10 units (with 100 or so plays per season), although I have made 20 in the past, and it can surely be done. Still, wagering 3x or 4x per unit, is warranted, as the 10 unit profit then becomes 40x. I feel it is easier to make 10 units on football than 25-50 units on buckets anyday, especially when looking at the NBA. It surely takes less handicapping time.

Each handicapper has strenghts and weaknesses. Your post sounds like you have worlds of experience with this, sharing your own wisdom. More likely, however, you are sharing your own personal experience, which of course will be expected to be different than everyone else. People get buried in football due to a lack of patience and selectivity. It is really not a good sport for the compulsive gambler, because there are not enough games for an action fiend to satisfy himself. I set aside a small unit amount (.5 unit) for action plays, and force myself to put any play that I can not write a reasonable paragraph as that amount. Thus, if I do what most players do, hit about 50/50 there, I just lose some juice and this does not cut into my serious rated plays.

 

[Nick Douglas]

Bombs, I don't think you know what you are talking about. You said you have made 20+ units in a football season. If you mean playing multiple units per play, I believe it. If you were using the example I used of one unit per play, then I don't believe it for a second.

My statement comes from experience and, yes, I am sharing my wisdom. Back in 1999 I even made a post on my page at that time that football was my favorite sport to wager on, etc. and that I play 5 times more on each football wager than I do on wagers in other sports because of the higher number of square players and the week that can be used to handicap each game. After several years of experience, I find this kind of thinking to be foolish.

For the vast majority of gamblers, they either never learn certain handicapping fundamentals or it takes a bad experience for them to learn them. This post is not directed at those people. It is directed at people who want to take handicapping seriously.

I have never heard a legitimately skilled handicapper honestly state that he is looking towards football season to really make some big profits. Some who have services may promote ideas like that because services sell more football packages than any other sport, but if you survey the truly sharp handicappers they will rightly point out that other sports are stronger money makers and therefore should warrant more of your time. I have heard plenty of squares say that they are looking forward to football season. In fact, it is kinda similar to how you can tell a racist by the fact that they say, "I don't see color," or by the way they try to prove their openness by touting black friends or coworkers. You can always tell a square by the fact that they claim football as their best sport for gambling. Good luck.

 

[dr. freeze]

. I have heard plenty of squares say that they are looking forward to football season. In fact, it is kinda similar to how you can tell a racist by the fact that they say, "I don't see color," or by the way they try to prove their openness by touting black friends or coworkers.

this might be one of the most ignorant things i have ever read

 

[Bombs]

Your post is so condescending, it is ridiculous. It does not even deserve a response. I have gone 65-38 during the course of one NFL/college football season 1998-99. That is my best season, and that is a little over 20 units. My goal is a 10 unit profit every year, and to hit a few games a bit harder, to increase my overall profit.

You must know a lot of "serious handicappers." More likely, you know a bunch of gambling degenerates who claim they are holier than thou and experts in the less wagered on sports.

Take a look at Nolan Dalla's page, then you will see how to make units during football season. And he only plays the pros.

Football, is the ULTIMATE contrarian sport, with all the public play. It is the place to feast on squares. You have really pissed me off with this condescending mess of a post.

 

[Bombs]

Of course, I "don't know what I'm talking about." I must be an idiot. So condescending.

 

[Bombs]

And the idea that other sports are the big "money makers" is plastered all over these message boards by Class A bullcrappers.

There is no inherent reason why winning at football should be different than winning in other sports. You could make the case that there is so much information available, that the lines are ultra sharp. However, I would counter with the argument that football lines are set more on public perception than those in any other sport. Where the value in football tends to increase during the year as the public thinks they have "figured out" certain teams, vegas adjusts to buckets and bases, squeezing out much of the value at the 2/3 pole.

I've been around the block too, probably more than you have, and I just find your original post ridiculous and your response condescending.

 

[ND2002HORNS]

freeze,

I agree, a very sad quote. Why can't we keep crap quotes like that out of here. Keep it to football.

HORNS

 

[Hoops]

Yep, Nick has a penchant for the obnoxious and condescending. Just because one method doesn't work for him doesn't mean it's not a valid method for others who are more adept in certain areas. There isn't one golden rule that needs to be followed in wagering on football. I thought Bombs post was much more valid and conclusive in its assessment of unit wagering for football as opposed to other sports.

 

[pt1gard]

olive branch time

olive branch time

to direct this kinda into a diff venue I was wondering how many of you long time NFL guys have encountered years like i have, i.e. doing really well quite often, and other years poorly ...

I think it comes down to for whatever reason getting with a team or three that end up being your cash cow and riding them hard in certain situations (obviously, im talking in the years Ive done well) ...

just curious if any of you veterans have have similar type experiences ... have a great weekend, guys

I got on skins over 19.5 and -1.5 right off bat

take care
gregg

 

[Yarj]

My Turn

My Turn

I don't know really what to say... I've followed Nick's pics in football as well as other sports for years and i have always found his posts to be accurate, unbiased and skillfully prepared/thought out. To hear his response is one that I must think was at a minimum insensitive and unaware and not one that was meant to be racist or demeaning. Nick had a tough year (those damn Bengals) in football last year and I will be watching his strong bounce back in this year of pics closely.


Yarj
Just one opinion

 

[Bombs]

Pt1gard:

No doubt, your season (in any sport) usually comes down to playing or fading one team. In the seasons that I have had the best results, I have often looked back and noticed that a good chunk of the winnings came from games involving one team. It's that feel for a certain team that often is the key for a big season.

It's also probably the most difficult thing to find in handicapping. Like backing the Angels last year, or fading them this year. It's those moves, combined with handicapping them into the right spots, that produce the monster seasons.

It's often easy to look back on a season and say "I should have done this" or "I should have backed that team all year." It's catching it as its happening that is hard.

I usually try to look at a few teams at the beginning of the season that I think will either do very well, or more commonly, that I think will struggle. I then look for spots to play them and capitalize.

I agree, though, that a season's overall result usually comes down to you nailing (or failing) on a few teams. It's surely happened to me both ways.

Good luck!

 

[Franky Wright]

well that sucked

Qoute:
"You have included too many images in your signature or in your previous post. Please go back and correct the problem and then continue again.

Images include use of smilies, the vB code tag and HTML <img> tags. The use of these is all subject to them being enabled by the administrator."


Thought I had written a good response to all this, then I could not get it back? IE or JACK Whats up with that?
:(

 

[Redfish]

Intersting thread with some good points.

For myself, I do the usual number cruching but two trend plays I can't stay away from is

1. take MIA at home in the month of Sept

2. go against GB whenever they're in a dome

 

[worm44]

Nick--:thefinger

Take you and your 27% win percentage and post your picks on a bathroom stall door

 

[ND2002HORNS]

I have had my differences with Nick at times, but he knows his stuff and is a solid capper so lets not make this personal. Bottom line is we all have an opinion when it comes to wagering in football and we are not all right. I happen to side with Bombs on this one.

HORNS

 

[THE KOD]

Bottom line is we all have an opinion when it comes to wagering in football and we are not all right.
HORNS

.........................................

Horns

I would have to agree and say slam it down.

Slam it down hard !


KOD

 

[freelancc]

TITFD...!!!!


:yup :yup :yup

 

[countinguy]

Everybody has their specialty sport they cap better than other sports. Which of course if Football is your sport I don't blame u for betting more units. Alot of my friends think I am nuts for betting on Baseball. Most people think it is impossible to cap but I am making money at it. Actually my favorite is NBA Halftimes I don't think their is anything more predictable than those over paid players, and HELL Yes I throw it down on that sport.

So folks whatever makes u the most money.
Just remember money management is the way folks.
There is no locks unless it has a key!!

GL ALL! Countinguy

And I do agree w/Bombs in this thread!!