I should totally back off this one, as some money that I've had locked up for over 2 weeks now will be generously returned ... if the Ducks can pull it off.
Another play I also hopped on: was waiting for this one for some time, and when I first saw it (Giguere Conn Smythe) it was listed at +300 ... after the 15 seconds (+/-) it took me to log-in, the # was down to +200
Freakin' ridiculous. Still, I grabbed a piece.
The following speculations must be taken with insane of galt, err... a grain of salt.
Leaving the obvious +/- what-have-you, leaving room for my inevitable errors, I came up with app. Devils 59-41 (%).
Devils -175, which I can't touch due to the above (screw the hedge, here), requires 64+% in order to find any value ... pseudo, neo, or otherwise.
Ducks +155 requires 40+%, so any value here appears, to me, negligable.
Despite a couple of high-scoring games, more recently this series, the numbers I propose suggest a decent chance for a low-scoring game.
The total is, again, 4. -135 isn't cheap, but it's a little better than the last few we've seen.
My crunchings came up with (app.):
over 4: 26%
under 4: 65%
4: 9% (note: must be 3-1 or 4-0, obviously, as any 2-2 score would feed the over players)
To provide some idea of where I am coming from here, I gave Brodeur a 15% chance for a shutout, and Giguere a 10% chance (both are for regulation time, before any OT); these #'s transcend arbitrariness a good deal, but let me know if they appear askew)
If these numbers were/are reliable, the under looks enticing.
At -135 I need 58+% for any semblance of value.
I already have a PV (preferred value ... what the hell - I can call it what I want! ) of +7.
The preceding doesn't seem totally accurate, though, as I'm not looking at a 35% risk for my coin on this play, due to the push on the 4 (at 9%).
The following adjustment may appear faulty (let me know if you have an argument vs), but a proper PV assessment should probably go:
65 / 65+26 = 71%
This bumps my PV up to +13, which is too glaring for me to pass on.
Should be a good game, regardless.
Withdrawel symptoms expected within 2 months (thank Hendrix for baseball season, and the approach of NFL football).
note: a 2-goal lead in the third period annhialates this play, in my view (save for 2-0), as chance-taking will increase, and an empty-net goal would seem quite likely.
PLAY:
under 4 -135
2.7/2
Happy Hunting MJ'ers ("madjackers" sounds too ... well ... nevermind )
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
No one's gonna steal my soul ... I bite the bullet no more
Another play I also hopped on: was waiting for this one for some time, and when I first saw it (Giguere Conn Smythe) it was listed at +300 ... after the 15 seconds (+/-) it took me to log-in, the # was down to +200
Freakin' ridiculous. Still, I grabbed a piece.The following speculations must be taken with insane of galt, err... a grain of salt.
Leaving the obvious +/- what-have-you, leaving room for my inevitable errors, I came up with app. Devils 59-41 (%).
Devils -175, which I can't touch due to the above (screw the hedge, here), requires 64+% in order to find any value ... pseudo, neo, or otherwise.
Ducks +155 requires 40+%, so any value here appears, to me, negligable.
Despite a couple of high-scoring games, more recently this series, the numbers I propose suggest a decent chance for a low-scoring game.
The total is, again, 4. -135 isn't cheap, but it's a little better than the last few we've seen.
My crunchings came up with (app.):
over 4: 26%
under 4: 65%
4: 9% (note: must be 3-1 or 4-0, obviously, as any 2-2 score would feed the over players)
To provide some idea of where I am coming from here, I gave Brodeur a 15% chance for a shutout, and Giguere a 10% chance (both are for regulation time, before any OT); these #'s transcend arbitrariness a good deal, but let me know if they appear askew)
If these numbers were/are reliable, the under looks enticing.
At -135 I need 58+% for any semblance of value.
I already have a PV
(preferred value ... what the hell - I can call it what I want! ) of +7.The preceding doesn't seem totally accurate, though, as I'm not looking at a 35% risk for my coin on this play, due to the push on the 4 (at 9%).
The following adjustment may appear faulty (let me know if you have an argument vs), but a proper PV assessment should probably go:
65 / 65+26 = 71%
This bumps my PV up to +13, which is too glaring for me to pass on.
Should be a good game, regardless.
Withdrawel symptoms expected within 2 months (thank Hendrix for baseball season, and the approach of NFL football).
note: a 2-goal lead in the third period annhialates this play, in my view (save for 2-0), as chance-taking will increase, and an empty-net goal would seem quite likely.
PLAY:
under 4 -135
2.7/2
Happy Hunting MJ'ers ("madjackers" sounds too ... well ... nevermind
)--------------------------------------------------------------------------
No one's gonna steal my soul ... I bite the bullet no more
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