I think I'm going to totally chill my action for awhile; probably won't stay off until the all-star break, as mid-July seems so far away. Guess I'm getting a bit tired of having action on starters who flirt with no-hitters only to have the team lose the game late. That's just one example of the frustration that has occured to my $$$.
However, time being available, I'm going to continue to 'cap games with this system I'm developing; I think it works pretty well for the most part, but there are clearly considerations that I must try to work into the percentages. I also need to work on a more viable betting strategy -- I'm getting sick and tired of smoking the books for two weeks before losing my arse the following week.
Keeping it simple today, despite the short board.
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Pirates(Suppan+)@Expos(Vargas+)
P.OPS: Pirates: 712, Expos: 705
PITCH: Pirates: 75, Expos: 81
--Starters faced each other in last, both looking solid. Suppan is your classic B-grade pitcher (ie not bad, not great), and Vargas is still a bit unknown, but he has looked very good, mostly against poor competition. Pirates recently lost 1B Simon to DL, while Expos remain without Vladdy, and recently lost 3B Tatis. Fairly large BP edge to Expos. Call is Expos 58%
Price: Expos -150 (PV -2)
Total of 9 looks a bit high to me; both starters have has success vs in limited action, including last start(s) -- however, bats may benefit from seeing starter(s) recently. Still looks high.
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Astros(Villone)@D'Backs(Webb)
P.OPS: Astros: 760 circled, D'Backs: 737
PITCH: Astros: 76, D'Backs: 85
--Kent has missed a few games recently, and Bagwell didn't play yesterday. D'Backs missing a few bats as well, but nothing as serious as Bagwell&Kent, if those 2 sit. I don't expect a miracle from Villone, but he was pretty good in last vs D'B's. BP helps the PITCH # here, quite a bit, though BP has had lotsa work lately, including key's Dotel and Wagner yesterday. I like Webb over Villone, for sure, but Astros do have better bats, if healthy, and if it is decided by the pens then Astros have decent edge, especially w/closer Mantei still out. Call is D'Backs 62
Price: D'Backs -140 (PV +3)
Total here looks high as well, especially if Astros short either key bat.
editedin: Looks like Bagwell was just given a night off Sunday; no report I've seen says anything about an injury. Kent is another story (wrist).
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Rockies(Chacon++)@Padres(Jarvis--)
P.OPS: Rocks: 785, Pads: 734
PITCH: Rocks: 81, Pads: 64
--Jarvis may be manhandled here, as he has in the past by Rocks (&several others); completing 7 is unlikely, which further complicates things for Pads as their BP stinks. Rocks BP not much better, at all, but offense, starter, and defense are. Call may look high with Rocks on road, but I've got Rocks 64
Price: Rocks -140 (PV +5)
Total looks low based on matchup, and BP's, but Qualcomm has proven to be a pitcher's park.
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Dodgers(Ishii+)@Giants(Rueter-)
P.OPS: LA: 735, SF: 796
PITCH: LA: 86, SF: 75
--Another re-match. Ishii has allowed only 57 hits (in 80-something), but has allowed 57 walks. SF may miss Snow (DL), but they have been hitting lefties much better than righties. Dodgers hitting lefties better as well, on season, but lately even that trend is cooling off for them -- they have been doing it with pitching all season. Call is 50-50
Price: Dodgers +110 (PV +2)
With both clubs bats' preferring lefties, and this game NOT at Dodger Stadium, no way I would touch under 7.5 here. Can't say I'd recommend the under, mind you, as Ishii is tough if he can find the strike zone, and Rueter might be about ready to toss a decent game for a change -- his opposition isn't intimidating.
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There's something happening here
What it is ain't exactly clear
(Buffalo Springfield-For What It's Worth)
However, time being available, I'm going to continue to 'cap games with this system I'm developing; I think it works pretty well for the most part, but there are clearly considerations that I must try to work into the percentages. I also need to work on a more viable betting strategy -- I'm getting sick and tired of smoking the books for two weeks before losing my arse the following week.
Keeping it simple today, despite the short board.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pirates(Suppan+)@Expos(Vargas+)
P.OPS: Pirates: 712, Expos: 705
PITCH: Pirates: 75, Expos: 81
--Starters faced each other in last, both looking solid. Suppan is your classic B-grade pitcher (ie not bad, not great), and Vargas is still a bit unknown, but he has looked very good, mostly against poor competition. Pirates recently lost 1B Simon to DL, while Expos remain without Vladdy, and recently lost 3B Tatis. Fairly large BP edge to Expos. Call is Expos 58%
Price: Expos -150 (PV -2)
Total of 9 looks a bit high to me; both starters have has success vs in limited action, including last start(s) -- however, bats may benefit from seeing starter(s) recently. Still looks high.
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Astros(Villone)@D'Backs(Webb)
P.OPS: Astros: 760 circled, D'Backs: 737
PITCH: Astros: 76, D'Backs: 85
--Kent has missed a few games recently, and Bagwell didn't play yesterday. D'Backs missing a few bats as well, but nothing as serious as Bagwell&Kent, if those 2 sit. I don't expect a miracle from Villone, but he was pretty good in last vs D'B's. BP helps the PITCH # here, quite a bit, though BP has had lotsa work lately, including key's Dotel and Wagner yesterday. I like Webb over Villone, for sure, but Astros do have better bats, if healthy, and if it is decided by the pens then Astros have decent edge, especially w/closer Mantei still out. Call is D'Backs 62
Price: D'Backs -140 (PV +3)
Total here looks high as well, especially if Astros short either key bat.
editedin: Looks like Bagwell was just given a night off Sunday; no report I've seen says anything about an injury. Kent is another story (wrist).
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Rockies(Chacon++)@Padres(Jarvis--)
P.OPS: Rocks: 785, Pads: 734
PITCH: Rocks: 81, Pads: 64
--Jarvis may be manhandled here, as he has in the past by Rocks (&several others); completing 7 is unlikely, which further complicates things for Pads as their BP stinks. Rocks BP not much better, at all, but offense, starter, and defense are. Call may look high with Rocks on road, but I've got Rocks 64
Price: Rocks -140 (PV +5)
Total looks low based on matchup, and BP's, but Qualcomm has proven to be a pitcher's park.
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Dodgers(Ishii+)@Giants(Rueter-)
P.OPS: LA: 735, SF: 796
PITCH: LA: 86, SF: 75
--Another re-match. Ishii has allowed only 57 hits (in 80-something), but has allowed 57 walks. SF may miss Snow (DL), but they have been hitting lefties much better than righties. Dodgers hitting lefties better as well, on season, but lately even that trend is cooling off for them -- they have been doing it with pitching all season. Call is 50-50
Price: Dodgers +110 (PV +2)
With both clubs bats' preferring lefties, and this game NOT at Dodger Stadium, no way I would touch under 7.5 here. Can't say I'd recommend the under, mind you, as Ishii is tough if he can find the strike zone, and Rueter might be about ready to toss a decent game for a change -- his opposition isn't intimidating.
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There's something happening here
What it is ain't exactly clear
(Buffalo Springfield-For What It's Worth)
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