Hey guys,
I didn't post any plays today (probably a good thing - been busy lately though and not much time for posting) but I had a pretty rough day as I see most of you on the site had...I went 3W-6L on the day for a -$3,600 losing day as i had a dime on each play and my only winners were with Va Comm, East Kentucky, and BYU by a hook...lost with Penn, Old Dom, Oral Roberts, Davidson, Weber State, and Belmont...I only play dogs during the tournament and have done well playing them over the past 9 years, coming out ahead every year...I won't let today's odd happenings affect the strategy and I hope that nobody panics and strays away from a solid strategy of backing the dogs...I identified these 9 plays as dogs I felt would bring home roughly a 6-3 or at worst 5-4 record...however the favorites came to play - and to play hard enough to win and cover...
I think alot of people probably will panic and start to play alot more favorites tomorrow - instead I say just brush off today and move forward and focus on the dogs tomorrow, and the day after, and the day after, etc.
It's hard to explain how out of 18 games played today (16 NCAA tourney, 2 NIT) the dogs managed to only go 3W-15L against the spread - I mean come on 16.7% if you picked every dog? 83.3% if you picked every fave? These tournaments never go this true to form in the long run. Don't hop on the favorites now thinking that every single day will be like today.
Before the tournament I put up a thread looking for trends in the NCAA tourney - with little feedback...however after diggiing some stuff up I uncovered some pretty interesting stuff...
Did you know that over the last 9 years - if you picked every single underdog in every game you would have covered 54.7% of those games simply betting EVERY single dog...that's how strong the dogs have been...now I would never advise betting every single game...and I know most of us bet too many games during the tournament (including myself - but hey it's fun to have a bit more action than normal sometimes) - but as you can see focusing on the underdogs is a good long run investment...
Two of the most interesting trends i discovered over the last 9 years are these:
1) Underdogs of +8 to +14 points have covered at a rate of 57.5% ATS
2) Underdogs of +1 to +3.5 points have covered at a rate of 57.6% ATS
I believe this says something over the last 9 years - one is that short dogs are a really good bet - and when you see a line that looks "real easy for the favorite to win and cover" - you should look the way of the dog instead...and also I believe why the +8 to +14 range of dogs is so strong is you have teams playing that are really closer in talent and playing ability than the public perception believes...dogs of 15+ points don't do as well as the talent discrepency is much larger
Anyways - don't lose faith in the dogs - they are the ticket to long run winning success...just thought some of you might enjoy reading this to give some hope for tomorrow and the rest of the tournament...it will all come around - maybe this will be a down year for the dogs who knows - but at the same time - think positive like i do - the best is probably yet to come!
Here's to a 10W-6L day for the dogs tomorrow! Hey that would be almost 63% - can't get greedy right
?
Good luck w/ the rest of your tourney plays.
--SAVE IT
I didn't post any plays today (probably a good thing - been busy lately though and not much time for posting) but I had a pretty rough day as I see most of you on the site had...I went 3W-6L on the day for a -$3,600 losing day as i had a dime on each play and my only winners were with Va Comm, East Kentucky, and BYU by a hook...lost with Penn, Old Dom, Oral Roberts, Davidson, Weber State, and Belmont...I only play dogs during the tournament and have done well playing them over the past 9 years, coming out ahead every year...I won't let today's odd happenings affect the strategy and I hope that nobody panics and strays away from a solid strategy of backing the dogs...I identified these 9 plays as dogs I felt would bring home roughly a 6-3 or at worst 5-4 record...however the favorites came to play - and to play hard enough to win and cover...
I think alot of people probably will panic and start to play alot more favorites tomorrow - instead I say just brush off today and move forward and focus on the dogs tomorrow, and the day after, and the day after, etc.
It's hard to explain how out of 18 games played today (16 NCAA tourney, 2 NIT) the dogs managed to only go 3W-15L against the spread - I mean come on 16.7% if you picked every dog? 83.3% if you picked every fave? These tournaments never go this true to form in the long run. Don't hop on the favorites now thinking that every single day will be like today.
Before the tournament I put up a thread looking for trends in the NCAA tourney - with little feedback...however after diggiing some stuff up I uncovered some pretty interesting stuff...
Did you know that over the last 9 years - if you picked every single underdog in every game you would have covered 54.7% of those games simply betting EVERY single dog...that's how strong the dogs have been...now I would never advise betting every single game...and I know most of us bet too many games during the tournament (including myself - but hey it's fun to have a bit more action than normal sometimes) - but as you can see focusing on the underdogs is a good long run investment...
Two of the most interesting trends i discovered over the last 9 years are these:
1) Underdogs of +8 to +14 points have covered at a rate of 57.5% ATS
2) Underdogs of +1 to +3.5 points have covered at a rate of 57.6% ATS
I believe this says something over the last 9 years - one is that short dogs are a really good bet - and when you see a line that looks "real easy for the favorite to win and cover" - you should look the way of the dog instead...and also I believe why the +8 to +14 range of dogs is so strong is you have teams playing that are really closer in talent and playing ability than the public perception believes...dogs of 15+ points don't do as well as the talent discrepency is much larger
Anyways - don't lose faith in the dogs - they are the ticket to long run winning success...just thought some of you might enjoy reading this to give some hope for tomorrow and the rest of the tournament...it will all come around - maybe this will be a down year for the dogs who knows - but at the same time - think positive like i do - the best is probably yet to come!
Here's to a 10W-6L day for the dogs tomorrow! Hey that would be almost 63% - can't get greedy right
? Good luck w/ the rest of your tourney plays.
--SAVE IT
