Formula Is 58.5% The Last 3 Years. This Seasons First Pick!
- Thread starter SMOKE JENSEN
- Start date
Sorry. I didn't have time earlier to respond to aldabra's question.
The system is something i have put together using a spreadsheet from microsoft works. It is a combination of off yards per point, def ypp, and what i call points per min. These are computed two differant ways. Using seperate home & away stats going back so many games. And also by a blend of the two. A raw score is then developed. This score is then tweeked by a turnover factor i use. Then this score is further tweeked by a situational matchup point score of the two teams involved. Then this is the final predicted score.I hope this explains.
The system is something i have put together using a spreadsheet from microsoft works. It is a combination of off yards per point, def ypp, and what i call points per min. These are computed two differant ways. Using seperate home & away stats going back so many games. And also by a blend of the two. A raw score is then developed. This score is then tweeked by a turnover factor i use. Then this score is further tweeked by a situational matchup point score of the two teams involved. Then this is the final predicted score.I hope this explains.
SMOKE JENSEN said:Sorry. I didn't have time earlier to respond to aldabra's question.
The system is something i have put together using a spreadsheet from microsoft works. It is a combination of off yards per point, def ypp, and what i call points per min. These are computed two differant ways. Using seperate home & away stats going back so many games. And also by a blend of the two. A raw score is then developed. This score is then tweeked by a turnover factor i use. Then this score is further tweeked by a situational matchup point score of the two teams involved. Then this is the final predicted score.I hope this explains.
Sounds like you have too much time on your hands.
Thanks for the picks though.
SMOKE JENSEN said:The system is something i have put together using a spreadsheet from microsoft works. It is a combination of off yards per point, def ypp, and what i call points per min. These are computed two differant ways. Using seperate home & away stats going back so many games. And also by a blend of the two. A raw score is then developed. This score is then tweeked by a turnover factor i use. Then this score is further tweeked by a situational matchup point score of the two teams involved. Then this is the final predicted score.I hope this explains.
I thought for sure this was going to end with something like: "And then after I do all that, I tear up my worksheet and flip a coin." LOL
No offence...just, wow....intricate system.
Best of luck..
Best of luck..
Hope it works...don't know about Pitt...got an aging bus and a
scatterarm at the helm...like others....
Best of luck..
Hope it works...don't know about Pitt...got an aging bus and a
scatterarm at the helm...like others....
Would love to know the details on how your system works...
GLTA AM2kidz
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GLTA AM2kidz
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How can your system provide picks for the first week of the season when you have no previous results to go by??
PerpetualCzech,
I use stats from last year at first. I know. You would think that this dose not make sense to do.. But when i checked how it hit in the early weeks of the last 3 years. It has done as good as any other weeks. Keep in mind that until now i have never wagered any money with its picks. This is my first season trying it. I hope it works as good. But i'll take 55% if I can get it. I finished the formula I'm using now in feb of 2001. I went back and checked it in 99 & 2000. (Boy, that took some time). I then worked it up weekly thru the 2001 season. During that period of time it hit at a 58% clip. Of course not betting for real with these picks meant I had no emotional thoughts or opinions prior to placing hard cash on them. Now that i have my cash on them for real. I hope I don't try to do to much thinking on my own that will cause me to veer off the formulas picks. I currently have $22,000 split up between 3 books for this season. I will set my bet size at 2.5% of my bankroll. That is $550-$500 a play to start. So as you can see I'm serious. And also a little frightened. It's for real now. And who knows if it will hit this season. I hope at the worst if I use good money strategy. I'll at least have my roll intact when the smoke clears. My upcoming sundays & mondays will obviously be more interesting. good luck to all.
I use stats from last year at first. I know. You would think that this dose not make sense to do.. But when i checked how it hit in the early weeks of the last 3 years. It has done as good as any other weeks. Keep in mind that until now i have never wagered any money with its picks. This is my first season trying it. I hope it works as good. But i'll take 55% if I can get it. I finished the formula I'm using now in feb of 2001. I went back and checked it in 99 & 2000. (Boy, that took some time). I then worked it up weekly thru the 2001 season. During that period of time it hit at a 58% clip. Of course not betting for real with these picks meant I had no emotional thoughts or opinions prior to placing hard cash on them. Now that i have my cash on them for real. I hope I don't try to do to much thinking on my own that will cause me to veer off the formulas picks. I currently have $22,000 split up between 3 books for this season. I will set my bet size at 2.5% of my bankroll. That is $550-$500 a play to start. So as you can see I'm serious. And also a little frightened. It's for real now. And who knows if it will hit this season. I hope at the worst if I use good money strategy. I'll at least have my roll intact when the smoke clears. My upcoming sundays & mondays will obviously be more interesting. good luck to all.
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You can use last years info BUT. Please becareful. Any new coach with new ideas can make stats for a team on trust worthy. Team will develope new coachs program. Also old coach not many left only afew with more then 4 years on same team. Can change to a differant syle of Of's, If old QB retires and now has new one. Change will not be much but again it can throw things off. I only tell you this because I had a friend with the labor of love working selections this way. First 3 to 4 weeks seem to put him behind enough that he fought like hell to catch up and post a winning season.. He had a total of 5 winning years out of 10 when he shit can the whole idea. So becareful.
Thanks for the advice DJV. Maybe 2.5% is too much the first few weeks? :shrug: Any thoughts on that? Thanks.
SMOKE
SMOKE
No offense and I mean no harm but I dont feel you can hit that percentage by playing that many games each week but to each his own. I really feel strong about 2 or 3 games and I have to pick 5 for my contest at carib tough week to handicap i think. Good Luck though
SJ sorry just saw your question to me on size of bet. I have no business telling you what to do. But if your going to war the first time for real, just want alittle more time to see things are as you think. Well I leave that up to you. If it was me. 1/2 first two weeks. So many plays is unusual. I wish you luck. I hope it works for you.
