I know it's early, but what do you think the eight BCS teams are going to be? - J.F.R.
A: As long as you give me the right to change this in mid-August and possibly let me include LSU or Michigan (remember, scheduling means just as much as talent):
Orange - USC vs. Oklahoma
Sugar - Georgia vs. Miami
Fiesta - West Virginia vs. Texas
Rose - Minnesota (I have to make a nutty call somewhere; the Gophs don't play Ohio State or Purdue) vs. Florida State
So who's going to be everyone's preseason number one? I'm assuming it's USC, but one friend is trying to tell me LSU is going to be one and another said it'll be Georgia. Who's right? - C.H.
A: You have to remember that preseason publications don't always go by who they think the best team is, they make a call for who's going to win the national title. Oklahoma will have the best offense in the country and you know the defense will come around, so I'll buy it if someone has the Sooners as a preseason number one. LSU has too tough a schedule to finish in the top spot, but should have a defense worthy to be considered among the elite. With that said, there can really only be two possible choices for the preseason #1 ranking. I'm starting to come around on Georgia thinking the Dawgs might be every bit as loaded as USC and could be number one, but the Trojans should be the preseason number one team.
USC is not only going to be loaded, it's going to be better with a more advanced running game, LB Matt Grootegoed back and healthy, and instant talent coming in from the JUCO ranks. Look at USC's schedule (Virginia Tech, at BYU, Colorado State, at Stanford, California, Arizona State, Washington, at Washington State, at Oregon State, Arizona, Notre Dame and at UCLA) and it's hard to find anyone that can stay close. My bold early season call? The Trojans will have a battle on its hands in one of their late road games, but will win every other game by at least 20 points. In fact, USC should be 21+ point favorites in every game except at Washington State.
Who are the top five "TCU"s going to be this year? I mean the teams that'll be in the top 10-20 all year with a gaudy record and a cheesy schedule, but not actually be all that great. Essentially, what are the five most overrated teams going to be? - R.H., Boston
A: Ah, the eternal argument: Is a team ranked where its ranked because it's that good, or is it ranked that high because of its schedule and mindless voters that simply look at won-loss records? I'm not saying these five teams aren't going to be good, but I'm saying they'll probably not be as talented as their ranking will be thanks to their average slates of games.
1) West Virginia - My choice for the deepest Orange Bowl sleeper, the Mountaineers, considering their Big East success over the last few years, are playing what amounts to a two game schedule hosting Maryland and going to Virginia Tech. The Terps are notoriously slow starters, and they'll still have kinks to work out in mid-September. Tech won't be very good.
2) California - Call me skeptical. Cal still doesn't have a defense and will have to deal with something it hasn't had over the last few years; expectations. The Bears will be everyone's hot preseason pick (remember Arizona State last year?), but will fall at least once early with road games at Southern Miss, Oregon State and USC.
3) Oregon - I tried to tell everyone last year that TCU was average, and no one listened. This year, Oregon is going to be my constant battle as the Ducks will be ranked in several top 20s and have a gaudy record, and won't be anywhere near that good. They'll get blasted at Oklahoma early, and then go on a good run not playing USC and getting Arizona State and Washington at home.
4) Toledo - The media will be looking for the next Miami University and will think Toledo is it after what's sure to be a 7-1 start (6-2 at worst). This is a good team, but it's not last year's RedHawks. Marshall is going to be the best team in the league.
5) Virginia Tech - I'll be fascinated to see where the Hokies will be ranked in the preseason. I already know of a few preseason publications that'll have them in the top 25, but talent-wise, this team is a shadow of its former self and really not all that good (at least not going into the season). After getting destroyed by USC, they have a good schedule not playing a brutal road game until December 4th at Miami.
Which top coaches are on the hottest seat going into the season, or at least are going to feel the most pressure? - KC, Omaha
A: Ty Willingham, Ty Willingham and Ty Willingham. Forget the fact that he's still coaching many of Bob Davie's players and dismissing the miracles his team came up with at the beginning of 2002, the hair-trigger letter from the alumni and the remarks by Paul Hornung have only continued the negativity around South Bend that only winning will erase. Willingham won't be fired if the Irish stink this year, but it'll make for a make-or-break 2005 if there isn't a sign of major improvement. Ron Zook won't be feeling comfortable all year long at Florida with the specter of Steve Spurrier haunting the program. Also needing a big season will be Dennis Franchione down at Texas A&M. Last year was a forgivable throwaway seen as a cleaning house year, but that won't work any more. There had better be at least seven wins and a competitive performance against Oklahoma and Texas or things will start to get a little hairy.
Give me rough odds on what the five Heisman finalists should be? - Jarrod, Houston
A: The casinos don't have the Heisman odds rolling yet, but this would be my early top five ... Matt Leinart, USC 5:1, Brad Smith, Missouri 10:1, Jason White, Oklahoma 12:1, Carnell Williams, Auburn 20:1 and Darren Sproles, Kansas State 25:1. I'd really like to find a spot for Cedric Benson of Texas and Wisconsin's Anthony Davis as well.
And finally, the quick takes on the teams most have e-mailed about. How good is (blank) going to be...
- Nebraska - The offense is going to take a while to come around, but the defense should be strong. This is a down year for the Big XII North, so the Huskers have an honest shot at winning the division.
- LSU - Top five caliber team with a brutal schedule that'll bring on two losses. One might be in the SEC title game. SEC teams never get the same breaks two years in a row.
- Michigan - With the right quarterback play, this could be a sneaky BCS caliber team with an outside shot at the Orange Bowl. The season finale at Ohio State is too scary to think the Wolverines will be in Miami.
- Notre Dame - It's all up to Brady Quinn. If the young quarterback comes through, the Irish will be above average enough to hope for an eight win season. There's still a gaping overall talent gap between them and the USC/Michigan/Tennessee teams on the schedule.
- South Carolina - I have a feeling this will be a bit of a surprise team. The ugly way that last season ended cast a sour pall over the off-season, but it's a veteran team that should annoy the heck out of the SEC East's big three.
A: As long as you give me the right to change this in mid-August and possibly let me include LSU or Michigan (remember, scheduling means just as much as talent):
Orange - USC vs. Oklahoma
Sugar - Georgia vs. Miami
Fiesta - West Virginia vs. Texas
Rose - Minnesota (I have to make a nutty call somewhere; the Gophs don't play Ohio State or Purdue) vs. Florida State
So who's going to be everyone's preseason number one? I'm assuming it's USC, but one friend is trying to tell me LSU is going to be one and another said it'll be Georgia. Who's right? - C.H.
A: You have to remember that preseason publications don't always go by who they think the best team is, they make a call for who's going to win the national title. Oklahoma will have the best offense in the country and you know the defense will come around, so I'll buy it if someone has the Sooners as a preseason number one. LSU has too tough a schedule to finish in the top spot, but should have a defense worthy to be considered among the elite. With that said, there can really only be two possible choices for the preseason #1 ranking. I'm starting to come around on Georgia thinking the Dawgs might be every bit as loaded as USC and could be number one, but the Trojans should be the preseason number one team.
USC is not only going to be loaded, it's going to be better with a more advanced running game, LB Matt Grootegoed back and healthy, and instant talent coming in from the JUCO ranks. Look at USC's schedule (Virginia Tech, at BYU, Colorado State, at Stanford, California, Arizona State, Washington, at Washington State, at Oregon State, Arizona, Notre Dame and at UCLA) and it's hard to find anyone that can stay close. My bold early season call? The Trojans will have a battle on its hands in one of their late road games, but will win every other game by at least 20 points. In fact, USC should be 21+ point favorites in every game except at Washington State.
Who are the top five "TCU"s going to be this year? I mean the teams that'll be in the top 10-20 all year with a gaudy record and a cheesy schedule, but not actually be all that great. Essentially, what are the five most overrated teams going to be? - R.H., Boston
A: Ah, the eternal argument: Is a team ranked where its ranked because it's that good, or is it ranked that high because of its schedule and mindless voters that simply look at won-loss records? I'm not saying these five teams aren't going to be good, but I'm saying they'll probably not be as talented as their ranking will be thanks to their average slates of games.
1) West Virginia - My choice for the deepest Orange Bowl sleeper, the Mountaineers, considering their Big East success over the last few years, are playing what amounts to a two game schedule hosting Maryland and going to Virginia Tech. The Terps are notoriously slow starters, and they'll still have kinks to work out in mid-September. Tech won't be very good.
2) California - Call me skeptical. Cal still doesn't have a defense and will have to deal with something it hasn't had over the last few years; expectations. The Bears will be everyone's hot preseason pick (remember Arizona State last year?), but will fall at least once early with road games at Southern Miss, Oregon State and USC.
3) Oregon - I tried to tell everyone last year that TCU was average, and no one listened. This year, Oregon is going to be my constant battle as the Ducks will be ranked in several top 20s and have a gaudy record, and won't be anywhere near that good. They'll get blasted at Oklahoma early, and then go on a good run not playing USC and getting Arizona State and Washington at home.
4) Toledo - The media will be looking for the next Miami University and will think Toledo is it after what's sure to be a 7-1 start (6-2 at worst). This is a good team, but it's not last year's RedHawks. Marshall is going to be the best team in the league.
5) Virginia Tech - I'll be fascinated to see where the Hokies will be ranked in the preseason. I already know of a few preseason publications that'll have them in the top 25, but talent-wise, this team is a shadow of its former self and really not all that good (at least not going into the season). After getting destroyed by USC, they have a good schedule not playing a brutal road game until December 4th at Miami.
Which top coaches are on the hottest seat going into the season, or at least are going to feel the most pressure? - KC, Omaha
A: Ty Willingham, Ty Willingham and Ty Willingham. Forget the fact that he's still coaching many of Bob Davie's players and dismissing the miracles his team came up with at the beginning of 2002, the hair-trigger letter from the alumni and the remarks by Paul Hornung have only continued the negativity around South Bend that only winning will erase. Willingham won't be fired if the Irish stink this year, but it'll make for a make-or-break 2005 if there isn't a sign of major improvement. Ron Zook won't be feeling comfortable all year long at Florida with the specter of Steve Spurrier haunting the program. Also needing a big season will be Dennis Franchione down at Texas A&M. Last year was a forgivable throwaway seen as a cleaning house year, but that won't work any more. There had better be at least seven wins and a competitive performance against Oklahoma and Texas or things will start to get a little hairy.
Give me rough odds on what the five Heisman finalists should be? - Jarrod, Houston
A: The casinos don't have the Heisman odds rolling yet, but this would be my early top five ... Matt Leinart, USC 5:1, Brad Smith, Missouri 10:1, Jason White, Oklahoma 12:1, Carnell Williams, Auburn 20:1 and Darren Sproles, Kansas State 25:1. I'd really like to find a spot for Cedric Benson of Texas and Wisconsin's Anthony Davis as well.
And finally, the quick takes on the teams most have e-mailed about. How good is (blank) going to be...
- Nebraska - The offense is going to take a while to come around, but the defense should be strong. This is a down year for the Big XII North, so the Huskers have an honest shot at winning the division.
- LSU - Top five caliber team with a brutal schedule that'll bring on two losses. One might be in the SEC title game. SEC teams never get the same breaks two years in a row.
- Michigan - With the right quarterback play, this could be a sneaky BCS caliber team with an outside shot at the Orange Bowl. The season finale at Ohio State is too scary to think the Wolverines will be in Miami.
- Notre Dame - It's all up to Brady Quinn. If the young quarterback comes through, the Irish will be above average enough to hope for an eight win season. There's still a gaping overall talent gap between them and the USC/Michigan/Tennessee teams on the schedule.
- South Carolina - I have a feeling this will be a bit of a surprise team. The ugly way that last season ended cast a sour pall over the off-season, but it's a veteran team that should annoy the heck out of the SEC East's big three.
