Thursday, August 1, 2002
Starting 2002 bankroll: $15,000
Current 2002 projected bankroll: $13,800
Current 2002 bankroll: $15,581
2002 Record: 178-218, +$581
This month: 0-0, +$0
This week (starts on Monday): 4-5, -$90
**********
2002 MLB Record: 89-93, +665
Yesterday: 1-2 MLB, -70
The month of July is over and it was a good month. I cane back from over $4,000 in the hole and now I have a profit on the year.
Knowing the nature of gambling, and more specifically, my history in gambling, I must admit that I enter August with a bit of apprehension. Month-long hot streaks happen often enough, but two month hot streaks are something of a rarity, especially for a person who places as many underdog bets as I do.
With that in mind I am going to continue to play $100 per play in baseball, at least for a little while. I am also going to stick to my 3 games per day formula as it generally gives me a good chance for a profit while keeping the overall risk in check. The problem with playing three dogs per day at even amounts is when a day like yesterday occurs. For some stupid reason I thought I could catch a couple of contenders napping, so I played two big dogs, one at +215 and one at +220. Playing big dogs is generally no sin as they often are good long term value, but when you are looking for a daily profit in three games, playing two of them is a pretty shady idea.
Because of that, I am making a few changes effective today. First of all I am going to limit my chalk to -200. To me the worst feeling is to go 2-1 with a money loss, so I am going to keep any chalk to a level where I will at least break even if I go 2-1 and lose my big fave. In that same spirit I am also playing ?to win? rather than ?to risk? with favorites. Normally i strongly advise against this, but in the confines of exactly 3 plays per day at exactly $100 per play, I feel this is the better way to do things. When I was fluctuating my plays between about 1 and 5 per day, playing ?to win? could have crushed me. Playing for such small amounts and with an exact number of plays, I feel that playing ?to risk? makes it too difficult to turn a profit on days when I find good favorites to play.
This idea of playing three games per day at $100 each game is still just a temporary thing. At some point I will probably go back to my more aggressive methods of playing. Remember that with the bankroll listed above, $100 per play is only about 0.75% of my bankroll on each play. Even for a conservative player that is a very small amound, and I would generally call myself a somewhat aggressive player.
We are also just two days from the opening of the NFL preseason and I can?t help but think that the 49ers are a good bet on Saturday. Getting a field goal with the superior team is incredibly strong. Spurrier is known as the type of guy who wants to win these games, but for Pete?s sake look at the offense he is coming with. The guy may win once the season starts but in a game so soon into training camp you have to think the Niners are the play there.
I posted three plays earlier in the message forum. If I have anything else I will post them later in the day. Most likely this is it. Good luck today.
8/1 MLB Plays:
All posted overnight in the Message Forum.
Los Angeles +120 over CINCINNATI 100/120
Toronto -170 over KANSAS CITY 170/100
CUBS -200 over San Diego 200/100
**********
7/31 Quick Notes:
**********
CAPRIATI SYNDROME
Surely even the most casual of sports fans knows the story of Jennifer Capriati. Teen sensation as a tennis player, then a tabloid regular in her late teens who turned her life around and became a force in the sport again in recent years. It?s a great story that almost writes itself as a bestseller or a Hollywood movie. It?s also a great example of the pitfalls of early achievement.
Though both the rewards and consequences are dwarfed by Capriati?s story, handicappers may come across a similar problem with regularity. You set a goal, you achieve the goal strikingly early and then you begin to fritter away your winnings. By the time you reach the date originally set for the goal, you wonder how the heck you were ever stupid enough to let that happen.
I write this because I am facing a similar quandry right now. About three weeks ago my bankroll was being eaten away seemingly every day by a year-long streak of mediocrity posted on this page. At the time I felt that I was playing too wild, so I set an ambitious, yet reasonable goal of winning $100 per day until mid-August that would get my bankroll back into the black before the football season started.
Almost immediately my results began to turn around and now I find myself with a winning yearlong bankroll. Heck, I have even lost money the last two days and I still have a profit posted. Or maybe that isn?t such a good thing.
Maybe I?ve peaked. Maybe I hit my hot streak and it?s best to keep my profit and pass until I reach the day my goal was originally set for. How could I be mad at myself if I did just that? Handicapping is a long term venture, not a short term one. When I reach the end of my $100 per day period I could easily look at my bankroll and be happy that I have achieved my goal.
There, in fact, is the problem. Handicapping is a long term venture. Though it is nice to achieve a goal set over a forty day period, in the grand scheme of, say, forty years of gambling a forty day period means relatively little. And if I assume that I am going to continue to make a profit long term (which every handicapper should assume), then every day passed for no reason is an opportunity lost. There is no shame in sitting a day or a week or a month out when on a cold streak, but in sitting out simply because you have reached some arbitrary goal early you could be sabotaging your own hot streak.
There is the crux of the problem. In most cases the real money made by gamblers is during the time they are on a hot streak. It also works the other way that the real money lost is during a cold streak. You may very well hover at a similar amount for weeks or months at a time, but when that hot streak hits, it can take care of your winnings goals in a very short period of time.
Conversely there is always the law of mean regression to worry about. If you are making about $200 dollars per day playing the amounts I have played over a period of time, you know very well that cannot last. Winning at a 15% ROI is impossible long term. If you know that eventually your ROI will have to come back down to earth, then perhaps cooling down your plays once you reach a goal early is prudent.
Hot streaks... ROI... Capriati. This was supposed to be a simple look at reaching goals early and now look at it.
As with anything having to do with handicapping and practically anything in life, the answer here relies in having balance. Balance the idea that your ultimate goal is to win as much money as possible with the realistic idea that hot streaks ultimately must face a losing streak that results in a regression to the mean.
The only way to effectively balance this is through experience. Set goals for yourself, but keep a good balance when streaks hit that leave you either way above or way below your goals after early samples. While it is critical to avoid the downside that comes with make-up bets when results are bad early, it can be nearly as important to handle success without burning out. Let Capriati teach us all a lesson that ultimately it is sometimes good to make sure we keep what we?ve earned in a short period of time.
**********
PAST PERFORMANCE:
Final 2002 World Cup Record: 1-8, -1370
Final 2001-2002 NHL Record: 89-106, +1857
Final 2001-2002 NBA Record: 67-81, +5469
Final 2001-2002 UEFA Champions League Record: 3-6, +175
Final 2001 NFL Record: 51-44, +773
Final 2001 NFLX Record: 5-6, -315
Final 2001 MLB Record: 145-165, +3946
Starting 2002 bankroll: $15,000
Current 2002 projected bankroll: $13,800
Current 2002 bankroll: $15,581
2002 Record: 178-218, +$581
This month: 0-0, +$0
This week (starts on Monday): 4-5, -$90
**********
2002 MLB Record: 89-93, +665
Yesterday: 1-2 MLB, -70
The month of July is over and it was a good month. I cane back from over $4,000 in the hole and now I have a profit on the year.
Knowing the nature of gambling, and more specifically, my history in gambling, I must admit that I enter August with a bit of apprehension. Month-long hot streaks happen often enough, but two month hot streaks are something of a rarity, especially for a person who places as many underdog bets as I do.
With that in mind I am going to continue to play $100 per play in baseball, at least for a little while. I am also going to stick to my 3 games per day formula as it generally gives me a good chance for a profit while keeping the overall risk in check. The problem with playing three dogs per day at even amounts is when a day like yesterday occurs. For some stupid reason I thought I could catch a couple of contenders napping, so I played two big dogs, one at +215 and one at +220. Playing big dogs is generally no sin as they often are good long term value, but when you are looking for a daily profit in three games, playing two of them is a pretty shady idea.
Because of that, I am making a few changes effective today. First of all I am going to limit my chalk to -200. To me the worst feeling is to go 2-1 with a money loss, so I am going to keep any chalk to a level where I will at least break even if I go 2-1 and lose my big fave. In that same spirit I am also playing ?to win? rather than ?to risk? with favorites. Normally i strongly advise against this, but in the confines of exactly 3 plays per day at exactly $100 per play, I feel this is the better way to do things. When I was fluctuating my plays between about 1 and 5 per day, playing ?to win? could have crushed me. Playing for such small amounts and with an exact number of plays, I feel that playing ?to risk? makes it too difficult to turn a profit on days when I find good favorites to play.
This idea of playing three games per day at $100 each game is still just a temporary thing. At some point I will probably go back to my more aggressive methods of playing. Remember that with the bankroll listed above, $100 per play is only about 0.75% of my bankroll on each play. Even for a conservative player that is a very small amound, and I would generally call myself a somewhat aggressive player.
We are also just two days from the opening of the NFL preseason and I can?t help but think that the 49ers are a good bet on Saturday. Getting a field goal with the superior team is incredibly strong. Spurrier is known as the type of guy who wants to win these games, but for Pete?s sake look at the offense he is coming with. The guy may win once the season starts but in a game so soon into training camp you have to think the Niners are the play there.
I posted three plays earlier in the message forum. If I have anything else I will post them later in the day. Most likely this is it. Good luck today.
8/1 MLB Plays:
All posted overnight in the Message Forum.
Los Angeles +120 over CINCINNATI 100/120
Toronto -170 over KANSAS CITY 170/100
CUBS -200 over San Diego 200/100
**********
7/31 Quick Notes:
**********
CAPRIATI SYNDROME
Surely even the most casual of sports fans knows the story of Jennifer Capriati. Teen sensation as a tennis player, then a tabloid regular in her late teens who turned her life around and became a force in the sport again in recent years. It?s a great story that almost writes itself as a bestseller or a Hollywood movie. It?s also a great example of the pitfalls of early achievement.
Though both the rewards and consequences are dwarfed by Capriati?s story, handicappers may come across a similar problem with regularity. You set a goal, you achieve the goal strikingly early and then you begin to fritter away your winnings. By the time you reach the date originally set for the goal, you wonder how the heck you were ever stupid enough to let that happen.
I write this because I am facing a similar quandry right now. About three weeks ago my bankroll was being eaten away seemingly every day by a year-long streak of mediocrity posted on this page. At the time I felt that I was playing too wild, so I set an ambitious, yet reasonable goal of winning $100 per day until mid-August that would get my bankroll back into the black before the football season started.
Almost immediately my results began to turn around and now I find myself with a winning yearlong bankroll. Heck, I have even lost money the last two days and I still have a profit posted. Or maybe that isn?t such a good thing.
Maybe I?ve peaked. Maybe I hit my hot streak and it?s best to keep my profit and pass until I reach the day my goal was originally set for. How could I be mad at myself if I did just that? Handicapping is a long term venture, not a short term one. When I reach the end of my $100 per day period I could easily look at my bankroll and be happy that I have achieved my goal.
There, in fact, is the problem. Handicapping is a long term venture. Though it is nice to achieve a goal set over a forty day period, in the grand scheme of, say, forty years of gambling a forty day period means relatively little. And if I assume that I am going to continue to make a profit long term (which every handicapper should assume), then every day passed for no reason is an opportunity lost. There is no shame in sitting a day or a week or a month out when on a cold streak, but in sitting out simply because you have reached some arbitrary goal early you could be sabotaging your own hot streak.
There is the crux of the problem. In most cases the real money made by gamblers is during the time they are on a hot streak. It also works the other way that the real money lost is during a cold streak. You may very well hover at a similar amount for weeks or months at a time, but when that hot streak hits, it can take care of your winnings goals in a very short period of time.
Conversely there is always the law of mean regression to worry about. If you are making about $200 dollars per day playing the amounts I have played over a period of time, you know very well that cannot last. Winning at a 15% ROI is impossible long term. If you know that eventually your ROI will have to come back down to earth, then perhaps cooling down your plays once you reach a goal early is prudent.
Hot streaks... ROI... Capriati. This was supposed to be a simple look at reaching goals early and now look at it.
As with anything having to do with handicapping and practically anything in life, the answer here relies in having balance. Balance the idea that your ultimate goal is to win as much money as possible with the realistic idea that hot streaks ultimately must face a losing streak that results in a regression to the mean.
The only way to effectively balance this is through experience. Set goals for yourself, but keep a good balance when streaks hit that leave you either way above or way below your goals after early samples. While it is critical to avoid the downside that comes with make-up bets when results are bad early, it can be nearly as important to handle success without burning out. Let Capriati teach us all a lesson that ultimately it is sometimes good to make sure we keep what we?ve earned in a short period of time.
**********
PAST PERFORMANCE:
Final 2002 World Cup Record: 1-8, -1370
Final 2001-2002 NHL Record: 89-106, +1857
Final 2001-2002 NBA Record: 67-81, +5469
Final 2001-2002 UEFA Champions League Record: 3-6, +175
Final 2001 NFL Record: 51-44, +773
Final 2001 NFLX Record: 5-6, -315
Final 2001 MLB Record: 145-165, +3946
