Twins-140 *3
ATLANTA at MINNESOTA
MINNESOTA is 43-17 (+25.7 Units) against the money line when playing on Friday over the last 3 seasons. The average score was:
MINNESOTA (6.3) , OPPONENT (4.0)
Atlanta will send right-hander Tim Hudson to the bump to face left-hander Francisco Liriano of the Twins. Hudson is 6-1 on the season with an ERA of 2.44 but his teammates have struggled on the highway posting a record of 15-20 on the year. Atlanta?s bullpen has also found the going tough on the highway blowing five saves in ten chances. This fact could come into play tonight even though Hudson has a very good record this season it has all come against NL opponents and his Interleague record has seen him go 1-13 in fourteen Interleague starts. Atlanta is 1-6 their last seven Interleague road games facing left-handed starters and 0-4 versus the American League Central Division. The Twins on the other hand have been dominating at home going 20-9 this season and 10-1 as a home favorite of -125 to -150. Minnesota is 7-1 when Liriano takes the bump versus National League opponents, 5-1 when he starts Game 1 of a series and 4-1 when he is a home favorite of -110 to -150. The Twins are 20-6 versus NL East teams, 16-5 at home versus National League teams with a winning record, 40-13 versus National League right-handers, 53-18 as a home favorite in this price range, 21-7 in Game 1 of a series and 56-20 their last seventy-six Interleague games overall. Minnesota is 11-2 versus NL starters whose ERA is 3.50 or better and 10-1 versus NL starters who have a WHIP of 1.250 or better on the season. A check of the database reveals two powerful league-wide systems that are active for tonight?s contest. The first one tells us to Play AGAINST MLB NL underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 2.70 or better on the season and the team is averaging 0.5 or less stolen bases per game on the season. Playing against these underdogs has produced a record of 63-23 the last five years for 73.3 percent winners and +33.2 Units of profit. The second system tells us to Play AGAINST NL road teams in this price range with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 2.70 or better, with a team on base percentage of .340 or better on the season. When fading these road teams the record is 39-13 the last five seasons for 75 percent winners and +26.5 Units of profit. This system is also 4-1 during the 2010 campaign. Our TPR Index favors the Twins by 2.49 runs over the Braves and our Math Model projects a Twins victory by 2.02 runs. With significant fundamental, technical and situational support for Minnesota we will lay the short price as they get an easy win over the Atlanta Braves on Friday night.
Cardinals-140 *3
A TOTAL Mis Match here with Jamie Garcia on the mound for the Cards, a solid lefty with a 1.47 ERA on the year against the D backs who are stuggling on offense and have hit a measly .180 as a team their last 10 games against southpaws. Better team, starter, hitting, bullpen all favor the Cards here, who are not a good road team and this is a VERY Winnable Game. Low scoring, but the Cards pull it out against a bullpen with a 6.50 ERA their last 3 games.
Padres - 135 *3
The Mariners have been getting torched, ripped apart and humiliated over the past several games and a gut check is definitely in order. The trip to San Diego is not likely to be a pleasant one after the M?s were swept in Texas and were outscored by a ridiculous 31-5 and batted an even more ridiculous .161 at that park. The torture continues
tonite..S.D is a contender in the NL west and I expect a W tonite Vs the M's.
All write up have been C/P :0074 :toast: :0008
ATLANTA at MINNESOTA
MINNESOTA is 43-17 (+25.7 Units) against the money line when playing on Friday over the last 3 seasons. The average score was:
MINNESOTA (6.3) , OPPONENT (4.0)
Atlanta will send right-hander Tim Hudson to the bump to face left-hander Francisco Liriano of the Twins. Hudson is 6-1 on the season with an ERA of 2.44 but his teammates have struggled on the highway posting a record of 15-20 on the year. Atlanta?s bullpen has also found the going tough on the highway blowing five saves in ten chances. This fact could come into play tonight even though Hudson has a very good record this season it has all come against NL opponents and his Interleague record has seen him go 1-13 in fourteen Interleague starts. Atlanta is 1-6 their last seven Interleague road games facing left-handed starters and 0-4 versus the American League Central Division. The Twins on the other hand have been dominating at home going 20-9 this season and 10-1 as a home favorite of -125 to -150. Minnesota is 7-1 when Liriano takes the bump versus National League opponents, 5-1 when he starts Game 1 of a series and 4-1 when he is a home favorite of -110 to -150. The Twins are 20-6 versus NL East teams, 16-5 at home versus National League teams with a winning record, 40-13 versus National League right-handers, 53-18 as a home favorite in this price range, 21-7 in Game 1 of a series and 56-20 their last seventy-six Interleague games overall. Minnesota is 11-2 versus NL starters whose ERA is 3.50 or better and 10-1 versus NL starters who have a WHIP of 1.250 or better on the season. A check of the database reveals two powerful league-wide systems that are active for tonight?s contest. The first one tells us to Play AGAINST MLB NL underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 2.70 or better on the season and the team is averaging 0.5 or less stolen bases per game on the season. Playing against these underdogs has produced a record of 63-23 the last five years for 73.3 percent winners and +33.2 Units of profit. The second system tells us to Play AGAINST NL road teams in this price range with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 2.70 or better, with a team on base percentage of .340 or better on the season. When fading these road teams the record is 39-13 the last five seasons for 75 percent winners and +26.5 Units of profit. This system is also 4-1 during the 2010 campaign. Our TPR Index favors the Twins by 2.49 runs over the Braves and our Math Model projects a Twins victory by 2.02 runs. With significant fundamental, technical and situational support for Minnesota we will lay the short price as they get an easy win over the Atlanta Braves on Friday night.
Cardinals-140 *3
A TOTAL Mis Match here with Jamie Garcia on the mound for the Cards, a solid lefty with a 1.47 ERA on the year against the D backs who are stuggling on offense and have hit a measly .180 as a team their last 10 games against southpaws. Better team, starter, hitting, bullpen all favor the Cards here, who are not a good road team and this is a VERY Winnable Game. Low scoring, but the Cards pull it out against a bullpen with a 6.50 ERA their last 3 games.
Padres - 135 *3
The Mariners have been getting torched, ripped apart and humiliated over the past several games and a gut check is definitely in order. The trip to San Diego is not likely to be a pleasant one after the M?s were swept in Texas and were outscored by a ridiculous 31-5 and batted an even more ridiculous .161 at that park. The torture continues
tonite..S.D is a contender in the NL west and I expect a W tonite Vs the M's.
All write up have been C/P :0074 :toast: :0008
