when enough is not enough
when enough is not enough
gonna play around, for my pleasure.
modified ROI data-mining:
Dodgers -1 (now)-126
72% on the W but singleodeon pays push.
Historically, 25-28% of all games are decided by a singleodeon.
Dodgers with 49 wins on the year.
14-12 in 1-run games so 14 of 49 wins by 1 run.
14/49=28.57%...the high side of the average as they play in a low-scoring park, perhaps (don't have home/away breakdown for that 1-run shiite)
72% of 72% leaves 52% of the time a winner.
obviously, 20 times a push with the singleodeon.
28 times losing.
-126 is 79.4 cents on the dollar
52 x 0.794=41.288
28 x -1=-28
20 x push
=======
+13.288%
Really need at least 10 for all I do to make me do something silly.
Tolerable, here, but Lannan ain't silly putty.
Thing is, Nats ARE and blueshirts prefer lefties--1st5 lead looks cool, -1/2 -115...heavily favoured team to lead through five?...why not.
Moving on...
Tigers call seems low to me, though Tigers are only .583 at home. Still, I expected a strong start to post break and got it and look for this to be a possible shake-and-bake series in the division. Following game has same flavour but sticking to concurrently. Call is low due to given edge for Chi pitching as Robertson is 6-6, high era, vs and has been poor in 3 of his last 4. I can't really see the Tigers dropping this one but the SP hurts (looks gold tomorrow). Still think 59% is low. Giving a 3% butt-feeling bonus for data-mining contentment.
Tigers 62%(-120)+7
-120 is 83.3 cents otd
62 x 0.833=51.646
38 x -1=-38
=======
+13.646% ROI
Again tolerable. Can't see them losing. Tigers over 4.5 -126 very promising but at that price why not peg the moneyline.
liking the least the last...
yankees 56%(+120)+10 thus automatic "system pick" as we said in the old days
56 x 1.2=67.2
44 x -1=-44
=======
+23.2%
Well...was thinking of sticking to the other two. Think the Yanks have a definite shot as Chambermaid can keep the recently quite Bosticks silent, perhaps, while you'd think the Yanks day-off would allow for whatever closing situation presents itself. Yanks have hit Beckett. Beckett sub-par lately. Bosticks sub-par lately, despite making the M's look like small children. Matsui only real remaining casualty to for surging Yanks. Underthoughts but Yanksecure more interest for additionalation. Like that Yanks 1st5 + the half a frankie...gonna see if still stands...-128 now, or +110 straight. 1st5 under5 at -147 is costly but tempting.
May or may not oblige temptation.
Stay tuned.
:weed:
