07:35 PM [907] WAS NATIONALS -133 ( T ROARK -R / J TEHERAN -R )
10:15 PM [912] SFO GIANTS -188 ( S LUGO -R / J CUETO -R )
10:40 PM [913] ARI DBACKS -148 ( Z GREINKE -R / J COSART -R )
08:15 PM [926] KC ROYALS -132 ( J BERRIOS -R / E VOLQUEZ -R )
10:05 PM [927] NY YANKEES -160 ( M TANAKA -R / J WEAVER -R )
10:10 PM [930] SEA MARINERS -177 ( B SUTER -L / W LEBLANC -L )
1 unit bet pays 19 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 13-136, -27.06 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23rd....yet another long dry spell, hit four teamer on Aug 17...hit nice daytime five teamer on Aug 19...
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
:0074
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Cole is now 2-4 in six second-half starts despite registering a FIP between 2.14 and 2.74 in each of those outings, but Saturday?s .522 BABIP is way too high. His .332 BABIP on the season is a few ticks above his .309 career mark, though he?s actually inducing weak contact at a career-high 23.3 percent clip. His peripherals look fine even with a dip in strikeouts from last season, so he should be a solid option in his next scheduled start on Aug. 19 against the Marlins at home.
Gerrit Cole - 4.1 IP, 5 ER, 12 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks. I almost led with Cole instead As The King of Really Good is getting usurped by a rebellion of dissatisfied owners as has a 4.24 ERA since coming off the DL in July. Now he has a ton of soft contact in that time, as well as under 30% hard contact, which makes me think that Cole is actually a decent buy low right now (solid K and walk numbers as well). This start was against the Dodgers who are super hot as well, which adds to the idea. I'm not super confident in that notion, but if you need t
Tom Koehler has been a savior with all the injuries to the Miami Marlins' rotation. Over his last five games, spanning 33 stanzas, the righty has logged a tidy 1.36 ERA and even tidier 0.76 WHIP, fanning a respectable 25 along the way. The Marlins visit the Steel City to take on Pittsburgh Pirates club that's scuffling with a low .307 wOBA against right-handers for the past month.
Wainwright is coming off a career-short two-inning start, and he has allowed 13 runs over his past two outings. He?s identified some needed fixes with his delivery and he will have an extra two days off before this start to work on those adjustments.
Wainwright, who is 6-2 with a 2.72 ERA in 13 career outings against Phillies, told reporters after the loss to the Cubs that he was feeling a little under the weather, but did not wish to use that as an excuse. He also denied that he was tipping his pitches, as was suspected in his previous outing.
Norris is coming back from a strained back that has kept him out since leaving his July 31 start early. He last made a rehab start Aug. 13, allowing one run over 5 2/3 innings for Class A Advanced Rancho Cucamonga.
Adleman, 28, is 1-1 with a 3.72 ERA in four starts for the Reds this year, all coming in May. He is 3-1 with a 2.38 ERA in 10 starts at Louisville.... In his past two starts for Triple-A Louisville, Adleman has tossed 14 scoreless innings.
the Rangers go with Cy Young candidate and lefty Cole Hamels (12-4, 2.88). He?s coming off a pretty unusual start where he went seven innings and allowed a career-high 14 hits (17 baserunners total) vs. Detroit but only two runs in a loss. The Tigers left 11 runners on base against Hamels, seven in scoring position. The lefty benefited from a double play, two outfield assists and a pickoff for his final out of the game. The last pitcher in the majors to give up at least 14 hits and two earned runs or less in at least seven innings was Montreal?s John Dopson, who allowed two runs and 15 hits in 8 2/3 innings against Atlanta on July 3, 1988. Hamels hasn?t faced the Rays this season.
The Over is 13-5-1 in Cleveland last 19 home games vs. a team with a winning record
Teheran, in his return to the mound, hopes to regain the velocity that was dwindling before he was sent to the DL on Aug. 2. The right-hander is also looking for his first win since June 19 and his first victory against the division-rival Nats....After receiving positive reports following Julio Teheran's rehab start with Triple-A Gwinnett on Sunday, Braves manager Brian Snitker is optimistic....
Berrios has continued to struggle with his command and wasn't sharp last time out against the Astros. He lasted two innings, giving up six runs on eight hits and a walk.
Minnesota vs. Kansas City
Pick: Kansas City
Edinson Volquez' pattern this season of pitching well at home and poorly on the road continued in July when he went 0-2 and allowed 10 runs (nine earned) in 12 innings in two starts as a visitor, but was 1-0 with an ERA under three runs in his three starts in Kansas City. And August started off with Volquez getting knocked around pretty good in his first start in Tampa Bay, a 12-0 thrashing by the Rays in which he allowed eight runs (seven earned) on 11 hits in just five innings. His next start at home was better, but still not very good as Volquez took a no-decision against the White Sox. We'll go with him and his 6-3 home record and 4.04 home ERA tonight at Kauffman Stadium against a Twins club that he's already beaten twice (2-0 in three starts) this season. In fact there are few teams that Volquez has done better against in his career than the Twins as the veteran RHP is 5-1 with a 2.29 ERA in nine appearances (eight starts) vs. Minnie. After getting crushed 8-1 on Thursday, the Twins are now 22-49 in the last 71 meetings with the Royals.
Cubs are 16-5 in their last 21 road games vs. a left-handed starter...36-16 in their last 52 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
The Colorado Rockies are 9-23 in their last 32 vs. National League Central.
Brent Suter, LHP - The 26-year-old was a 31st-round Draft pick in 2012 and will be making his big league debut over another lefty, top pitching prospect Josh Hader. Suter has had a solid season-plus at Triple-A, using a four-pitch mix to post a 3.45 ERA in 32 games.
Though he?s not a strikeout pitcher, Suter has found success in the minors thanks to some good control. He?s recorded a 3.50 ERA and 3.45 FIP in 26 appearances (15 starts) for the Sky Sox covering 110.2 innings. He has walked just 14 out of 453 batters faced this season, recording a K/9 of 6.10 and a BB/9 of 1.14. His home run numbers are also low, allowing just five home runs all year (0.41 HR/9). This all comes despite a .348 BABIP that he has given up, which could suggest that some of those numbers are inflated. (For more information on Suter, Kyle wrote up a piece for Baseball Prospectus about a month ago : http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/07/15/suter-and-pitching-depth/
Mets rookie right-hander Seth Lugo (0-1, 2.65 ERA) to make his first major league start against the National League's All-Star Game starter, Giants right-hander Johnny Cueto (13-3, 2.97 ERA).
"It's a hole to fill," Collins said of losing Matz, who is being pointed toward keeping his spot in the rotation next week. "Right now, Seth Lugo's going to be the guy."
Lugo has made nine relief appearances for the Mets, and he has demonstrated an uncanny ability to get left-handed hitters out. They are batting just .130 (3-for-23) against him.
The Giants got eight hits from lefty hitters in Thursday's barrage on deGrom.
Cueto?s numbers have dropped off considerably in his last six outings. He?s 0-2 with a 4.84 ERA during that span, after going 13-1 with a 2.47 ERA in his first 18 starts as a Giant.
Arizona at San Diego
Play: Over 7.5
San Diego's Jarred Cosart is nothing more than a stopgap starter at this point. Miami wisely unloaded him back in July and the Padres are just hoping for him to chew up enough innings to avoid having to throw someone in their plans for the future. Cosart's velocity is down about 3 mph from last year and he's consistently struggled with his mechanics and command. In 34 innings, he's walked 24 batters and owns a 5.03 ERA despite allowing only one home run. As expected, Zack Greinke's move to Arizona resulted in a significant regression. He's pitched well at times this season but shows some serious red flags by failing to pitching into the third inning in two of his last three starts. Keep in mind, Greinke is getting up there in age and is ultra-competitive. Arizona was expected to contend in the West this season but finds itself 21 games under .500 and playing out this string. Not convinced Greinke is going to be dialed in mentally the remainder of the season. Also note that the Padres' lineup is no longer as right-hand dominant after various trades and call-ups. I expect them to put as many as five lefties in the lineup tonight. Toss is two very suspect bullpens and it points towards this game going over the total.
Oakland -1? +147 over CHICAGO
Kendall Graveman fits the profile of a young unheralded starting pitcher since he doesn't have top-shelf raw stuff or a top-prospect pedigree. What he does do however, is keep the ball on the ground at a high rate (54%), and his stuff is starting to miss bats at a higher rate (11% swing and miss since the break). Graveman has two legitimate strikeout pitches now: 19% swing and miss rate with his slider, 15% swing and miss rate on his cutter. He?ll now face a Chicago nine that has seven wins in their past 20 games with most of those losses being of the ugly variety. All that said, this one is once again all about fading James Shields.
James Shields had a nice five-game stretch (1.78 ERA) from June 29th to July 21st but it was all smoke and mirrors so pay no attention to it whatsoever. Over his last 23 innings, Shields has walked 10 batters while whiffing a lousy 11. In his last start, Shields? struck out nobody and was gone by the third inning after allowing 10 hits and seven runs. Shields? was not throwing worse in his last start than when he had success during that aforementioned five-game stretch. He was just getting lucky then. When he first joined the White Sox, Shields pitched to an ERA of 11.07 after his first five starts. His ERA in his last five starts is 9.00. Shields? continues to get hit hard every single time he pitches. His success all depends on where those hard hit balls land. He?s truly no better than a batting practice pitching machine and cannot in any way be expected to do well when he takes the mound. We cannot promise that balls hit will find holes or gaps but we can 100% guarantee that balls will be put in play and they?ll be hit hard. Aside from being a complete disaster, Shields? putrid 33%/48% groundball/fly-ball split over his last five games assures us that unless the wind is blowing in, he?ll be taken yard today again. Shields? has given up six jacks in his last 4.1 innings. When James Shields pitches and you can lay less than 40 cents, it?s a great bet. This is the worst starter in baseball and it?s not even close. We?ll spot the extra half run here and take back a sweet price.
TAMPA BAY +121 over Texas
It?s not just baseball; it?s in every sport that you must pay a premium to back contending teams down the stretch when they are playing non-contenders. What makes this one even more interesting is that the ever-recognizable and popular Cole Hamels is going up against a rather unknown in Matt Andriese. The line looks short, which is precisely what the oddsmakers want you to believe.
Hamels needs no introductions. He?s the ace of this Rangers staff, which isn?t saying much but he would be the ace of the rotation on 80% of the teams in this league. Thing is, Hamels is not immune to a poor outing. His first-pitch strike rate of 57% is weak and that rate is at 53% over his last five starts. He?s no cinch either, as the Rangers have dropped two of his last three starts. If you were thinking Rangers here, you would be selling low on Rays? starter, Matt Andriese. That might be a mistake.
Unheralded former 3rd round pick Matt Andriese has followed up his solid, but unspectacular, 2015 MLB debut by posting a 3.36 ERA and 1.09 WHIP so far in 2016. That?s still selling this kid short because of his surging indicators. Andriese?s strikeout rate in the minors in 2015 (9.6 K?s/9) and 2016 (11.5 K?s/9) hints at a recently revved up arsenal, and this theory is further supported by his 2016 MLB swinging strike rate of 14% and 16% in his last start. Over his last 21 innings, Andriese has 22 K?s. His excellent control level is fully supported by control sub-indicators, as Andriese has pounded the strike zone and gets ahead early in the count (72% first-pitch strike rate) and stays there.
He induces grounders with three separate pitches: change-up (61%), cutter (56%), and curve (53%) and he has also done a nice job of limiting home run damage in 2016. Andriese has 93 MPH heat with life. He has walked just two batters over his last 21 frames and has walked just 18 all season in 86 frames. You would be hard-pressed to find a starter in the majors that is in better form right now than Matt Andriese and his underlying stats scream out that it isn?t a fluke. Rangers obviously can win here but they?re without question the most overvalued play on today?s board.
In the Sights, Friday MLB?
I don?t quite get some of the movement in the Friday MLB marketplace, and with two different home favorites crossing to the underdog range a profit can be made by merely splitting the tickets. As such, it is #916 Baltimore (7:05 Eastern) and #920 Detroit (7:10 Eastern) going into play. I?ll go short on the details since we are within two hours of first pitch, but the Orioles can be found at +105 and the Tigers and +120, which is far from openers that I thought were in the right place.
The air has gone out of the Astros season, and a current 0-5 run in which they have been out-scored by 26 runs is not likely to be turned around by the mediocre stuff of Colin McHugh. Meanwhile yesterday?s big working margin has set up the Oriole bullpen ideally for this one, so Wade Miley may not need to do more than make two passes through the lineup.
The form of Detroit?s Michael Fulmer is just off the charts right now ? in 11 of his last 15 starts he has allowed one run or none, a 1.43 ERA over 100.1 frames in that span, and for a pitcher to be below 1.50 at any stretch of 100 innings is great work. Yet the market respect is lacking, which opens the door for solid value here.
In the Sights, Friday MLB?
I don?t quite get some of the movement in the Friday MLB marketplace, and with two different home favorites crossing to the underdog range a profit can be made by merely splitting the tickets. As such, it is #916 Baltimore (7:05 Eastern) and #920 Detroit (7:10 Eastern) going into play. I?ll go short on the details since we are within two hours of first pitch, but the Orioles can be found at +105 and the Tigers and +120, which is far from openers that I thought were in the right place.
The air has gone out of the Astros season, and a current 0-5 run in which they have been out-scored by 26 runs is not likely to be turned around by the mediocre stuff of Colin McHugh. Meanwhile yesterday?s big working margin has set up the Oriole bullpen ideally for this one, so Wade Miley may not need to do more than make two passes through the lineup.
The form of Detroit?s Michael Fulmer is just off the charts right now ? in 11 of his last 15 starts he has allowed one run or none, a 1.43 ERA over 100.1 frames in that span, and for a pitcher to be below 1.50 at any stretch of 100 innings is great work. Yet the market respect is lacking, which opens the door for solid value here.
In the Sights, Friday NFL?
Last Wednesday in taking an early lead on the Rams that proved to be fortuitous timing, there was reference to a valuable way that information had been presented by a Cowboys beat writer that played a key part -
Yet is the gap on defense that may be the widest. Let?s let the words from Matt Moseley of the Dallas Morning News set the tone on that front - ?OXNARD, Calif. -- The Cowboys' annual Blue-White scrimmage was held in front of a raucous crowd Sunday. No one seemed to know when it started, but it quickly finished due to a staggering lack of personnel on defense.?
That was his opener, and the conclusion brought it back around full circle ? ?For now, the most important thing is to add some warm bodies along the defensive line and at linebacker. This team is dangerously thin on defense without having made any cuts. It's hard to imagine this unit making it four quarters, but that's what will happen Saturday.?
Things may be even worse for the Dallas defense tonight, and given the motivation that is appearing to be on the table for the Dolphins offense, it will be #415 Miami (8:00 Eastern) in play, with +3 available across the board in the morning trading (NOTE: It did not take long for this one to come crashing down, but +2 or better, or +115 or better on the Money Line, still works, just reduce the wager by abound 25 percent).
Let?s go back to the Dallas Morning News again for the key aspect ?
?3. Where will the pass rush come from?
The Cowboys only had four defensive ends to work with against the Rams. Ryan Russell and David Irving played in all four quarters but neither recorded a sack. Shaneil Jenkins, who was signed earlier this month, recorded the team's only sack. Can the Cowboys get more pressure against Miami? If so, it will likely have to come from Russell, Jenkins and Mike McAdoo. Injuries have left Rod Marinelli's group extremely thin up front. Irving (groin) won't be in the lineup Friday. Benson Mayowa recently returned to practice but he's not expected to play. Outside linebacker Kyle Wilber could get some work at defensive end if needed.?
The lack of depth for that defense was evident in Los Angeles, when the Rams put three touchdown drives together in the second half, and tonight I expect Miami to be able to attack well throughout the game. It has not been a good training camp for the Dolphin offense, which can indeed happen in the transition to a new playbook, and while the growing pains can create a damper, I believe that gets mitigated by a sense of urgency that has been openly talked about by the players and coaches, one that could lead to extended playing time for the first unit. There will also be playing time for DeVante Parker and Arian Foster, who sat out last week.
There is a major gap in defensive depth between the teams. While Dallas is paper thin, the Miami defense held the Giants to 13 first downs and 227 yards last week, coming up with four sacks and four turnovers, despite not having Ndamukong Suh, Cameron Wake, Mario Williams, Reshad Jones or Byron Maxwell on the field for a single snap. That defense will only have to deal with Tony Romo and the Cowboy starters for a single series, and while Dak Prescott showed well for the Cowboys last week he remains a work in progress, while there is not much fear of non-prospect Jameill Showers in the second half. Meanwhile the Dolphins can remain on attack throughout, with Matt Moore a veteran #2 and rookie Brandon Doughty showing a lot of promise as the #3, which could mean late-game production similar to what the Rams put up vs. this depleted Dallas defensive roster last week.
10:15 PM [912] SFO GIANTS -188 ( S LUGO -R / J CUETO -R )
10:40 PM [913] ARI DBACKS -148 ( Z GREINKE -R / J COSART -R )
08:15 PM [926] KC ROYALS -132 ( J BERRIOS -R / E VOLQUEZ -R )
10:05 PM [927] NY YANKEES -160 ( M TANAKA -R / J WEAVER -R )
10:10 PM [930] SEA MARINERS -177 ( B SUTER -L / W LEBLANC -L )
1 unit bet pays 19 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 13-136, -27.06 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23rd....yet another long dry spell, hit four teamer on Aug 17...hit nice daytime five teamer on Aug 19...
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Cole is now 2-4 in six second-half starts despite registering a FIP between 2.14 and 2.74 in each of those outings, but Saturday?s .522 BABIP is way too high. His .332 BABIP on the season is a few ticks above his .309 career mark, though he?s actually inducing weak contact at a career-high 23.3 percent clip. His peripherals look fine even with a dip in strikeouts from last season, so he should be a solid option in his next scheduled start on Aug. 19 against the Marlins at home.
Gerrit Cole - 4.1 IP, 5 ER, 12 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks. I almost led with Cole instead As The King of Really Good is getting usurped by a rebellion of dissatisfied owners as has a 4.24 ERA since coming off the DL in July. Now he has a ton of soft contact in that time, as well as under 30% hard contact, which makes me think that Cole is actually a decent buy low right now (solid K and walk numbers as well). This start was against the Dodgers who are super hot as well, which adds to the idea. I'm not super confident in that notion, but if you need t
Tom Koehler has been a savior with all the injuries to the Miami Marlins' rotation. Over his last five games, spanning 33 stanzas, the righty has logged a tidy 1.36 ERA and even tidier 0.76 WHIP, fanning a respectable 25 along the way. The Marlins visit the Steel City to take on Pittsburgh Pirates club that's scuffling with a low .307 wOBA against right-handers for the past month.
Wainwright is coming off a career-short two-inning start, and he has allowed 13 runs over his past two outings. He?s identified some needed fixes with his delivery and he will have an extra two days off before this start to work on those adjustments.
Wainwright, who is 6-2 with a 2.72 ERA in 13 career outings against Phillies, told reporters after the loss to the Cubs that he was feeling a little under the weather, but did not wish to use that as an excuse. He also denied that he was tipping his pitches, as was suspected in his previous outing.
Norris is coming back from a strained back that has kept him out since leaving his July 31 start early. He last made a rehab start Aug. 13, allowing one run over 5 2/3 innings for Class A Advanced Rancho Cucamonga.
Adleman, 28, is 1-1 with a 3.72 ERA in four starts for the Reds this year, all coming in May. He is 3-1 with a 2.38 ERA in 10 starts at Louisville.... In his past two starts for Triple-A Louisville, Adleman has tossed 14 scoreless innings.
the Rangers go with Cy Young candidate and lefty Cole Hamels (12-4, 2.88). He?s coming off a pretty unusual start where he went seven innings and allowed a career-high 14 hits (17 baserunners total) vs. Detroit but only two runs in a loss. The Tigers left 11 runners on base against Hamels, seven in scoring position. The lefty benefited from a double play, two outfield assists and a pickoff for his final out of the game. The last pitcher in the majors to give up at least 14 hits and two earned runs or less in at least seven innings was Montreal?s John Dopson, who allowed two runs and 15 hits in 8 2/3 innings against Atlanta on July 3, 1988. Hamels hasn?t faced the Rays this season.
The Over is 13-5-1 in Cleveland last 19 home games vs. a team with a winning record
Teheran, in his return to the mound, hopes to regain the velocity that was dwindling before he was sent to the DL on Aug. 2. The right-hander is also looking for his first win since June 19 and his first victory against the division-rival Nats....After receiving positive reports following Julio Teheran's rehab start with Triple-A Gwinnett on Sunday, Braves manager Brian Snitker is optimistic....
Berrios has continued to struggle with his command and wasn't sharp last time out against the Astros. He lasted two innings, giving up six runs on eight hits and a walk.
Minnesota vs. Kansas City
Pick: Kansas City
Edinson Volquez' pattern this season of pitching well at home and poorly on the road continued in July when he went 0-2 and allowed 10 runs (nine earned) in 12 innings in two starts as a visitor, but was 1-0 with an ERA under three runs in his three starts in Kansas City. And August started off with Volquez getting knocked around pretty good in his first start in Tampa Bay, a 12-0 thrashing by the Rays in which he allowed eight runs (seven earned) on 11 hits in just five innings. His next start at home was better, but still not very good as Volquez took a no-decision against the White Sox. We'll go with him and his 6-3 home record and 4.04 home ERA tonight at Kauffman Stadium against a Twins club that he's already beaten twice (2-0 in three starts) this season. In fact there are few teams that Volquez has done better against in his career than the Twins as the veteran RHP is 5-1 with a 2.29 ERA in nine appearances (eight starts) vs. Minnie. After getting crushed 8-1 on Thursday, the Twins are now 22-49 in the last 71 meetings with the Royals.
Cubs are 16-5 in their last 21 road games vs. a left-handed starter...36-16 in their last 52 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
The Colorado Rockies are 9-23 in their last 32 vs. National League Central.
Brent Suter, LHP - The 26-year-old was a 31st-round Draft pick in 2012 and will be making his big league debut over another lefty, top pitching prospect Josh Hader. Suter has had a solid season-plus at Triple-A, using a four-pitch mix to post a 3.45 ERA in 32 games.
Though he?s not a strikeout pitcher, Suter has found success in the minors thanks to some good control. He?s recorded a 3.50 ERA and 3.45 FIP in 26 appearances (15 starts) for the Sky Sox covering 110.2 innings. He has walked just 14 out of 453 batters faced this season, recording a K/9 of 6.10 and a BB/9 of 1.14. His home run numbers are also low, allowing just five home runs all year (0.41 HR/9). This all comes despite a .348 BABIP that he has given up, which could suggest that some of those numbers are inflated. (For more information on Suter, Kyle wrote up a piece for Baseball Prospectus about a month ago : http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/07/15/suter-and-pitching-depth/
Mets rookie right-hander Seth Lugo (0-1, 2.65 ERA) to make his first major league start against the National League's All-Star Game starter, Giants right-hander Johnny Cueto (13-3, 2.97 ERA).
"It's a hole to fill," Collins said of losing Matz, who is being pointed toward keeping his spot in the rotation next week. "Right now, Seth Lugo's going to be the guy."
Lugo has made nine relief appearances for the Mets, and he has demonstrated an uncanny ability to get left-handed hitters out. They are batting just .130 (3-for-23) against him.
The Giants got eight hits from lefty hitters in Thursday's barrage on deGrom.
Cueto?s numbers have dropped off considerably in his last six outings. He?s 0-2 with a 4.84 ERA during that span, after going 13-1 with a 2.47 ERA in his first 18 starts as a Giant.
Arizona at San Diego
Play: Over 7.5
San Diego's Jarred Cosart is nothing more than a stopgap starter at this point. Miami wisely unloaded him back in July and the Padres are just hoping for him to chew up enough innings to avoid having to throw someone in their plans for the future. Cosart's velocity is down about 3 mph from last year and he's consistently struggled with his mechanics and command. In 34 innings, he's walked 24 batters and owns a 5.03 ERA despite allowing only one home run. As expected, Zack Greinke's move to Arizona resulted in a significant regression. He's pitched well at times this season but shows some serious red flags by failing to pitching into the third inning in two of his last three starts. Keep in mind, Greinke is getting up there in age and is ultra-competitive. Arizona was expected to contend in the West this season but finds itself 21 games under .500 and playing out this string. Not convinced Greinke is going to be dialed in mentally the remainder of the season. Also note that the Padres' lineup is no longer as right-hand dominant after various trades and call-ups. I expect them to put as many as five lefties in the lineup tonight. Toss is two very suspect bullpens and it points towards this game going over the total.
Oakland -1? +147 over CHICAGO
Kendall Graveman fits the profile of a young unheralded starting pitcher since he doesn't have top-shelf raw stuff or a top-prospect pedigree. What he does do however, is keep the ball on the ground at a high rate (54%), and his stuff is starting to miss bats at a higher rate (11% swing and miss since the break). Graveman has two legitimate strikeout pitches now: 19% swing and miss rate with his slider, 15% swing and miss rate on his cutter. He?ll now face a Chicago nine that has seven wins in their past 20 games with most of those losses being of the ugly variety. All that said, this one is once again all about fading James Shields.
James Shields had a nice five-game stretch (1.78 ERA) from June 29th to July 21st but it was all smoke and mirrors so pay no attention to it whatsoever. Over his last 23 innings, Shields has walked 10 batters while whiffing a lousy 11. In his last start, Shields? struck out nobody and was gone by the third inning after allowing 10 hits and seven runs. Shields? was not throwing worse in his last start than when he had success during that aforementioned five-game stretch. He was just getting lucky then. When he first joined the White Sox, Shields pitched to an ERA of 11.07 after his first five starts. His ERA in his last five starts is 9.00. Shields? continues to get hit hard every single time he pitches. His success all depends on where those hard hit balls land. He?s truly no better than a batting practice pitching machine and cannot in any way be expected to do well when he takes the mound. We cannot promise that balls hit will find holes or gaps but we can 100% guarantee that balls will be put in play and they?ll be hit hard. Aside from being a complete disaster, Shields? putrid 33%/48% groundball/fly-ball split over his last five games assures us that unless the wind is blowing in, he?ll be taken yard today again. Shields? has given up six jacks in his last 4.1 innings. When James Shields pitches and you can lay less than 40 cents, it?s a great bet. This is the worst starter in baseball and it?s not even close. We?ll spot the extra half run here and take back a sweet price.
TAMPA BAY +121 over Texas
It?s not just baseball; it?s in every sport that you must pay a premium to back contending teams down the stretch when they are playing non-contenders. What makes this one even more interesting is that the ever-recognizable and popular Cole Hamels is going up against a rather unknown in Matt Andriese. The line looks short, which is precisely what the oddsmakers want you to believe.
Hamels needs no introductions. He?s the ace of this Rangers staff, which isn?t saying much but he would be the ace of the rotation on 80% of the teams in this league. Thing is, Hamels is not immune to a poor outing. His first-pitch strike rate of 57% is weak and that rate is at 53% over his last five starts. He?s no cinch either, as the Rangers have dropped two of his last three starts. If you were thinking Rangers here, you would be selling low on Rays? starter, Matt Andriese. That might be a mistake.
Unheralded former 3rd round pick Matt Andriese has followed up his solid, but unspectacular, 2015 MLB debut by posting a 3.36 ERA and 1.09 WHIP so far in 2016. That?s still selling this kid short because of his surging indicators. Andriese?s strikeout rate in the minors in 2015 (9.6 K?s/9) and 2016 (11.5 K?s/9) hints at a recently revved up arsenal, and this theory is further supported by his 2016 MLB swinging strike rate of 14% and 16% in his last start. Over his last 21 innings, Andriese has 22 K?s. His excellent control level is fully supported by control sub-indicators, as Andriese has pounded the strike zone and gets ahead early in the count (72% first-pitch strike rate) and stays there.
He induces grounders with three separate pitches: change-up (61%), cutter (56%), and curve (53%) and he has also done a nice job of limiting home run damage in 2016. Andriese has 93 MPH heat with life. He has walked just two batters over his last 21 frames and has walked just 18 all season in 86 frames. You would be hard-pressed to find a starter in the majors that is in better form right now than Matt Andriese and his underlying stats scream out that it isn?t a fluke. Rangers obviously can win here but they?re without question the most overvalued play on today?s board.
In the Sights, Friday MLB?
I don?t quite get some of the movement in the Friday MLB marketplace, and with two different home favorites crossing to the underdog range a profit can be made by merely splitting the tickets. As such, it is #916 Baltimore (7:05 Eastern) and #920 Detroit (7:10 Eastern) going into play. I?ll go short on the details since we are within two hours of first pitch, but the Orioles can be found at +105 and the Tigers and +120, which is far from openers that I thought were in the right place.
The air has gone out of the Astros season, and a current 0-5 run in which they have been out-scored by 26 runs is not likely to be turned around by the mediocre stuff of Colin McHugh. Meanwhile yesterday?s big working margin has set up the Oriole bullpen ideally for this one, so Wade Miley may not need to do more than make two passes through the lineup.
The form of Detroit?s Michael Fulmer is just off the charts right now ? in 11 of his last 15 starts he has allowed one run or none, a 1.43 ERA over 100.1 frames in that span, and for a pitcher to be below 1.50 at any stretch of 100 innings is great work. Yet the market respect is lacking, which opens the door for solid value here.
In the Sights, Friday MLB?
I don?t quite get some of the movement in the Friday MLB marketplace, and with two different home favorites crossing to the underdog range a profit can be made by merely splitting the tickets. As such, it is #916 Baltimore (7:05 Eastern) and #920 Detroit (7:10 Eastern) going into play. I?ll go short on the details since we are within two hours of first pitch, but the Orioles can be found at +105 and the Tigers and +120, which is far from openers that I thought were in the right place.
The air has gone out of the Astros season, and a current 0-5 run in which they have been out-scored by 26 runs is not likely to be turned around by the mediocre stuff of Colin McHugh. Meanwhile yesterday?s big working margin has set up the Oriole bullpen ideally for this one, so Wade Miley may not need to do more than make two passes through the lineup.
The form of Detroit?s Michael Fulmer is just off the charts right now ? in 11 of his last 15 starts he has allowed one run or none, a 1.43 ERA over 100.1 frames in that span, and for a pitcher to be below 1.50 at any stretch of 100 innings is great work. Yet the market respect is lacking, which opens the door for solid value here.
In the Sights, Friday NFL?
Last Wednesday in taking an early lead on the Rams that proved to be fortuitous timing, there was reference to a valuable way that information had been presented by a Cowboys beat writer that played a key part -
Yet is the gap on defense that may be the widest. Let?s let the words from Matt Moseley of the Dallas Morning News set the tone on that front - ?OXNARD, Calif. -- The Cowboys' annual Blue-White scrimmage was held in front of a raucous crowd Sunday. No one seemed to know when it started, but it quickly finished due to a staggering lack of personnel on defense.?
That was his opener, and the conclusion brought it back around full circle ? ?For now, the most important thing is to add some warm bodies along the defensive line and at linebacker. This team is dangerously thin on defense without having made any cuts. It's hard to imagine this unit making it four quarters, but that's what will happen Saturday.?
Things may be even worse for the Dallas defense tonight, and given the motivation that is appearing to be on the table for the Dolphins offense, it will be #415 Miami (8:00 Eastern) in play, with +3 available across the board in the morning trading (NOTE: It did not take long for this one to come crashing down, but +2 or better, or +115 or better on the Money Line, still works, just reduce the wager by abound 25 percent).
Let?s go back to the Dallas Morning News again for the key aspect ?
?3. Where will the pass rush come from?
The Cowboys only had four defensive ends to work with against the Rams. Ryan Russell and David Irving played in all four quarters but neither recorded a sack. Shaneil Jenkins, who was signed earlier this month, recorded the team's only sack. Can the Cowboys get more pressure against Miami? If so, it will likely have to come from Russell, Jenkins and Mike McAdoo. Injuries have left Rod Marinelli's group extremely thin up front. Irving (groin) won't be in the lineup Friday. Benson Mayowa recently returned to practice but he's not expected to play. Outside linebacker Kyle Wilber could get some work at defensive end if needed.?
The lack of depth for that defense was evident in Los Angeles, when the Rams put three touchdown drives together in the second half, and tonight I expect Miami to be able to attack well throughout the game. It has not been a good training camp for the Dolphin offense, which can indeed happen in the transition to a new playbook, and while the growing pains can create a damper, I believe that gets mitigated by a sense of urgency that has been openly talked about by the players and coaches, one that could lead to extended playing time for the first unit. There will also be playing time for DeVante Parker and Arian Foster, who sat out last week.
There is a major gap in defensive depth between the teams. While Dallas is paper thin, the Miami defense held the Giants to 13 first downs and 227 yards last week, coming up with four sacks and four turnovers, despite not having Ndamukong Suh, Cameron Wake, Mario Williams, Reshad Jones or Byron Maxwell on the field for a single snap. That defense will only have to deal with Tony Romo and the Cowboy starters for a single series, and while Dak Prescott showed well for the Cowboys last week he remains a work in progress, while there is not much fear of non-prospect Jameill Showers in the second half. Meanwhile the Dolphins can remain on attack throughout, with Matt Moore a veteran #2 and rookie Brandon Doughty showing a lot of promise as the #3, which could mean late-game production similar to what the Rams put up vs. this depleted Dallas defensive roster last week.
