09:00 PM CFB [310] Utah -3-110
07:10 PM MLB [955] TOTAL o8.5 -115 (Atlanta Braves vrs Miami Marlins) (Wisler/Cashner)
07:10 PM MLB [972] Cleveland Indians -173 ( M Gonzalez - R / T Bauer - R )
07:05 PM MLB [980] Baltimore Orioles -1.5 -110 ( S Miller - R / Y Gallardo - R )
1 unit bet pays 9.75 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 16-163, -35.49 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23rd....yet another long dry spell, hit four teamer on Aug 17...hit nice daytime five teamer on Aug 18....won small daytime three teamer on Aug 24.....won daytime and evening parlays on Sept 7...
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
:0074
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Under is 35-16-2 in BAL last 53 home games.
Over is 36-15-2 in ATL last 53 overall.
Over is 20-8 in TB last 28 home games.
N.Y. Yankees +159 over TORONTO
Bryan Mitchell has only pitched 12 innings at this level this season but he has significant big league time under his belt, pitching 40.2 innings between 2014 and 2015. He was all set to open the year in the Yankees bullpen, but he fractured his toe in March and required surgery. He returned in August and only pitched 21 innings before being called up. Mitchell can touch the upper-90s with his fastball. However, he has a deep pitch mix also. He?s big and strong, though fringy command and a below average change-up could hold him back until he refines both. At his best, he uses a power sinker to keep the ball low in the zone and he can get strikeouts with his hard, low-80s curveball. Mitchell also has a cutter to give hitters a different look. He owns a 4.27 ERA, a 3.44 xERA and 8.2 K?s/9 in his minor league career. Is he a risk? Of course he is but he?s taking back an inflated price and Francisco Liriano is just as big a risk.
Liriano was recently used in the pen in back-to-back appearances in which he was tagged for three runs combined after facing 10 hitters combined. In his last start, Liriano allowed four runs in six innings. In the eight games that he?s appeared in since arriving here, Toronto has lost five of them. Liriano has the potential to throw a great game but he?s also a big risk because he does not pitch deep into games anymore. His pitch count is always high because he throws so many balls. Liriano has walked 82 batters in 150.2 innings for the highest walk rate in the majors among starters. He?s also been taken yard three times in his past two starts including twice in his last start at the Rogers Center. Toronto is still fighting it offensively and they have not been sharp at home recently either. When it comes right down to it, this is very close to a 50/50 proposition so taking back a price would be the prudent way to go.
Atlanta +110 over MIAMI
If Josh Collmenter could go into Miami and silence the Marlins, Matt Wisler can do the same. After fighting to stay alive in the playoff hunt for a long time, it?s all over the Fish and they?re playing like it. This is a very beatable host.
We have to hand it to the Braves, who are on fire and look the part too. The trade to acquire Ender Inciarte from the D-backs for Shelby Miller may turn out to be one of the biggest steals on record. Inciarte leads the majors since the All-Star break in several offensive categories including batting average and on base %. He?s reached safely in 42 straight games and sets the table by leading off. Several other are hot too, like Freddie Freeman and Nick Markakis. The Braves offense has scored more runs than any team in the NL over the past five weeks and they have also won six in a row but they?re priced like none of that has happened. They?ll now face Andrew Cashner.
Andrew Cashner is about as average or below as anyone. He comes in with a 5.27 ERA, a 4.68 xERA, a 1.52 WHIP and a weak swing and miss rate of 8%. Over his last five starts, Cashner?s ERA is 6.28. He?s also walked 15 batters over his past 23 innings. Cashner?s control is waning. His numbers versus LHB continues to be ugly. A mild rebound perhaps, but he's nothing more than a mid-range starter and his profile is one you don?t want to spot a price with against the hottest team in the majors.
Tigers -135
The Royals have checked out for the season losing 7 of their last 10 games. It is tough for a playoff team to get up night after night knowing they won?t be going to the playoffs. If you look at a team like Atlanta they are building towards something and want to take teams home with them. This is not the energy you will get from this Royals team. Detroit needs to win this game to stay on top of the playoff wild card race. This is obviously a must win playoff game for them and they are at home. You have to win these games if you want to play in October.
Coldest pitcher: Trevor Bauer, Indians (11-8, 4.24 ERA)
Cleveland is creeping closer towards an AL Central title and a playoff berth, but the Tribe needs Bauer to get on track. The Indians? right-hander has allowed 17 earned runs in his last three starts, including giving up six earned runs in 5.1 innings of an 8-1 loss at Chicago 10 days ago. Bauer gets another shot at the White Sox tonight at Progressive Field, as the Indians posted a 5-2 record against Chicago in his career prior to that disastrous start. The good news for Cleveland tonight is the 6-2 mark the team owns when Bauer has taken the mound at home since the All-Star break.
Biggest UNDER run: Angels (7-0 last seven)
Los Angeles could have easily thrown in the towel at this point, but the Angels have been competitive of late by winning four of its past six games. Two of those defeats came by one run each at Texas, while Ricky Nolasco tossed seven scoreless innings in a 2-0 victory at Houston on Thursday. The Halos are riding a seven-game UNDER streak, which included three UNDERS on high totals at Texas this week (all 10 ? or higher). Alex Meyer heads to the mound for Los Angeles tonight, as the right-hander has cashed the UNDER in all three of his starts since entering the rotation, while not allowing a run in five innings in his last outing against Toronto.
Biggest OVER run: White Sox (5-1 last six)
Chicago is counting the days until the season is over, dropping five straight games as it will finish under .500 for the fourth consecutive season. The White Sox staff has allowed 33 runs in the previous four losses, including ace Chris Sale yielding six earned runs in four innings of Wednesday?s 8-3 trouncing by the Phillies. The Sox head to Cleveland tonight as four of the past six matchups have eclipsed the OVER, while Chicago captured three of four meetings earlier this month on the South Side.
Mariners -132
This is a fairly manageable line on the M's considering they are still very much alive in the wild card race and factoring in that the Twins have lost 6 straight games. Minnesota has the worst record in all of baseball with a 55-98 mark on the season. The Mariners come into this match-up fresh after a day off yesterday. Seattle is on a 10-4 run in their last 14 games while the Twins are in a full free-fall having lost 21 of their last 27 games! With Minny on a 6-21 run and starting pitcher Kyle Gibson 1-7 with a 5.32 ERA in his home starts this season, this is a "value" spot to lay a moderate price (currently in the -130 range) to have the hungry and superior team in this one. Seattle will have James Paxton on the mound tonight and he has given up just 4 earned runs on 9 hits in his last 13 innings on the mound. Also, the southpaw has struck out 18 in his last 17 and 1/3 innings. Paxton struck out 7 in less than 5 innings in the only start he has made against the Twins in his career. Look for plenty of K's to get piled up in this outing too as the Minnesota slump continues. Amazingly, the Twins have been held to 2 runs or less in 9 of their last 12 games. The Mariners have won 6 straight road games and averaged 6.3 runs per game during this hot streak.
Hottest team: Red Sox (8-0 last eight)
Boston is catching fire at the right time, coming off a four-game road sweep of Baltimore to extend its AL East advantage to 5 ? games with nine contests remaining. The Red Sox have scored at least five runs in each of their last eight games, while the pitching staff helped shut down the Orioles to register four straight UNDERS. Boston travels to Tampa Bay to begin a weekend series with the last-place Rays, as Boston has won seven of the past 10 matchups. Drew Pomeranz takes the mound tonight for Boston, who is winless in two starts against Tampa Bay, while the Sox are 1-4 in the southpaw?s past five outings.
Coldest team: Twins (2-8 last 10)
Even though Minnesota has pretty much been out of the playoff race since April, the Twins? offense has hit a new low in September. The Twins have been swept in consecutive series by the Mets and Tigers, scoring two runs or less in six straight games, while posting four runs in Thursday?s doubleheader sweep by Detroit. Since taking two games in Atlanta on August 16 and August 17, the Twins have slumped to a 6-27 record the past 33 contests, including a 4-12 mark at Target Field. Minnesota hosts Seattle tonight, as the Twins swept the Mariners at Safeco Field when the teams last met in late May.
USC / Utah Under 46.5
Utah?s offense has been far from impressive scoring 24 points on Southern Utah, 20 points against BYU and while they did put up 34 points last week it came against my #118 defense of San Jose St. The Utes defense however has done what was expected holding Southern Utah and San Jose St to 8.5 PPG and allowing only 328 yards and 19 points to my #48 offense, BYU. USC meanwhile is already playing their third TOP 15 defense so we basically know what to expect. The Trojans totaled a combined 16 points versus Alabama and Stanford and now they travel for a second straight week. USC HC Clay Helton has also made a QB change naming freshman Sam Darnold this week?s starter over Max Brown and while Rice-Eccles Stadium is a very tough place to make your first ever start the level of difficulty is amplified by doing so on a short week. Both teams prefer to run the ball and against FBS foes USC has run 67 and 61 plays on offense while Utah has run 65 and 67 plays. While totals can move several points the current number on this game is 46.5 and it?s a valid play at any O/U line of 43.5 or more.
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Ordinarily rain and a temperature in the 40?s does not have to be a big deal ? some folks might even call that ?football weather?. But it is a genuine handicapping consideration for this setting ? the Trojans rarely practice in the rain, and almost never play in temperatures that dip into the 40?s.
UTAH -3
This is an interesting game to handicap, as off the power ratings, USC at Utah is lined right about where it ought to be. I think a case can be made that the Utes opened a shade too inexpensively. Apparently, some sharp players felt that way as this line has crept up to -3. That?s right about where I priced it, as I power rated this contest at Utah -3.2.
But going beyond the ratings and focusing on the physical matchup, I think there?s a decent case to be made for the home team. For me, that focus belongs on what?s likely to take place in the trenches, which is so often a great predictor for what will happen in the game.
I?ve watched the USC duels with Alabama and Stanford, and I don?t know else how to say this, but it looked like men vs. boys on the front lines. The Trojans got pushed around by both the Crimson Tide and the Cardinal. That?s reflected in the rushing stats. Alabama won the ground game by a whopping 242-64 margin. Similarly, Stanford dominated that aspect to the tune of 295-117.
This doesn?t bode well for the Men of Troy as they journey to Salt Lake City for this challenge against Utah. It?s not like the Utes have what I?d call a dominant rushing attack. But it?s also not bad and let?s just say that Utah head coach Kyle Whittingham is no dummy. I?d be very surprised if based on what he and his staff have seen on film, it?s anything other than an effort to ground and pound by the Utes on Friday evening.
I also think that Whittingham vs. Clay Helton could be a bit of a mismatch. I might end being soaking wet with this assessment. But I was pretty vocal about my general disdain for the full time hiring of Helton as the USC head coach last season. That wasn?t meant to be a slap in the face as Helton did a nice job of stabilizing the Trojans last season in the midst of the Steve Sarkisian fiasco.
But that didn?t mean Helton was the ultimate choice to take control of the football program. I felt that USC needed to go higher profile. Time will tell on that assessment. But off the early results, I think I might have it right. True enough, USC was supposed to lose to both Alabama and Stanford. But I wasn?t impressed with the way they lost, and I suspect there?s a real chance this team could struggle to win even half their games. If that?s the way this season unfolds, the natives are going to get very restless very soon. Again.
I would think this particular game has a good chance to be fairly tight as it?s not like the 2016 Utes are any kind of powerhouse. But playing at home with revenge and owning what share looks to me to be an advantage in the trenches it?s a game I expect Utah to win.
07:10 PM MLB [955] TOTAL o8.5 -115 (Atlanta Braves vrs Miami Marlins) (Wisler/Cashner)
07:10 PM MLB [972] Cleveland Indians -173 ( M Gonzalez - R / T Bauer - R )
07:05 PM MLB [980] Baltimore Orioles -1.5 -110 ( S Miller - R / Y Gallardo - R )
1 unit bet pays 9.75 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 16-163, -35.49 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23rd....yet another long dry spell, hit four teamer on Aug 17...hit nice daytime five teamer on Aug 18....won small daytime three teamer on Aug 24.....won daytime and evening parlays on Sept 7...
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Under is 35-16-2 in BAL last 53 home games.
Over is 36-15-2 in ATL last 53 overall.
Over is 20-8 in TB last 28 home games.
N.Y. Yankees +159 over TORONTO
Bryan Mitchell has only pitched 12 innings at this level this season but he has significant big league time under his belt, pitching 40.2 innings between 2014 and 2015. He was all set to open the year in the Yankees bullpen, but he fractured his toe in March and required surgery. He returned in August and only pitched 21 innings before being called up. Mitchell can touch the upper-90s with his fastball. However, he has a deep pitch mix also. He?s big and strong, though fringy command and a below average change-up could hold him back until he refines both. At his best, he uses a power sinker to keep the ball low in the zone and he can get strikeouts with his hard, low-80s curveball. Mitchell also has a cutter to give hitters a different look. He owns a 4.27 ERA, a 3.44 xERA and 8.2 K?s/9 in his minor league career. Is he a risk? Of course he is but he?s taking back an inflated price and Francisco Liriano is just as big a risk.
Liriano was recently used in the pen in back-to-back appearances in which he was tagged for three runs combined after facing 10 hitters combined. In his last start, Liriano allowed four runs in six innings. In the eight games that he?s appeared in since arriving here, Toronto has lost five of them. Liriano has the potential to throw a great game but he?s also a big risk because he does not pitch deep into games anymore. His pitch count is always high because he throws so many balls. Liriano has walked 82 batters in 150.2 innings for the highest walk rate in the majors among starters. He?s also been taken yard three times in his past two starts including twice in his last start at the Rogers Center. Toronto is still fighting it offensively and they have not been sharp at home recently either. When it comes right down to it, this is very close to a 50/50 proposition so taking back a price would be the prudent way to go.
Atlanta +110 over MIAMI
If Josh Collmenter could go into Miami and silence the Marlins, Matt Wisler can do the same. After fighting to stay alive in the playoff hunt for a long time, it?s all over the Fish and they?re playing like it. This is a very beatable host.
We have to hand it to the Braves, who are on fire and look the part too. The trade to acquire Ender Inciarte from the D-backs for Shelby Miller may turn out to be one of the biggest steals on record. Inciarte leads the majors since the All-Star break in several offensive categories including batting average and on base %. He?s reached safely in 42 straight games and sets the table by leading off. Several other are hot too, like Freddie Freeman and Nick Markakis. The Braves offense has scored more runs than any team in the NL over the past five weeks and they have also won six in a row but they?re priced like none of that has happened. They?ll now face Andrew Cashner.
Andrew Cashner is about as average or below as anyone. He comes in with a 5.27 ERA, a 4.68 xERA, a 1.52 WHIP and a weak swing and miss rate of 8%. Over his last five starts, Cashner?s ERA is 6.28. He?s also walked 15 batters over his past 23 innings. Cashner?s control is waning. His numbers versus LHB continues to be ugly. A mild rebound perhaps, but he's nothing more than a mid-range starter and his profile is one you don?t want to spot a price with against the hottest team in the majors.
Tigers -135
The Royals have checked out for the season losing 7 of their last 10 games. It is tough for a playoff team to get up night after night knowing they won?t be going to the playoffs. If you look at a team like Atlanta they are building towards something and want to take teams home with them. This is not the energy you will get from this Royals team. Detroit needs to win this game to stay on top of the playoff wild card race. This is obviously a must win playoff game for them and they are at home. You have to win these games if you want to play in October.
Coldest pitcher: Trevor Bauer, Indians (11-8, 4.24 ERA)
Cleveland is creeping closer towards an AL Central title and a playoff berth, but the Tribe needs Bauer to get on track. The Indians? right-hander has allowed 17 earned runs in his last three starts, including giving up six earned runs in 5.1 innings of an 8-1 loss at Chicago 10 days ago. Bauer gets another shot at the White Sox tonight at Progressive Field, as the Indians posted a 5-2 record against Chicago in his career prior to that disastrous start. The good news for Cleveland tonight is the 6-2 mark the team owns when Bauer has taken the mound at home since the All-Star break.
Biggest UNDER run: Angels (7-0 last seven)
Los Angeles could have easily thrown in the towel at this point, but the Angels have been competitive of late by winning four of its past six games. Two of those defeats came by one run each at Texas, while Ricky Nolasco tossed seven scoreless innings in a 2-0 victory at Houston on Thursday. The Halos are riding a seven-game UNDER streak, which included three UNDERS on high totals at Texas this week (all 10 ? or higher). Alex Meyer heads to the mound for Los Angeles tonight, as the right-hander has cashed the UNDER in all three of his starts since entering the rotation, while not allowing a run in five innings in his last outing against Toronto.
Biggest OVER run: White Sox (5-1 last six)
Chicago is counting the days until the season is over, dropping five straight games as it will finish under .500 for the fourth consecutive season. The White Sox staff has allowed 33 runs in the previous four losses, including ace Chris Sale yielding six earned runs in four innings of Wednesday?s 8-3 trouncing by the Phillies. The Sox head to Cleveland tonight as four of the past six matchups have eclipsed the OVER, while Chicago captured three of four meetings earlier this month on the South Side.
Mariners -132
This is a fairly manageable line on the M's considering they are still very much alive in the wild card race and factoring in that the Twins have lost 6 straight games. Minnesota has the worst record in all of baseball with a 55-98 mark on the season. The Mariners come into this match-up fresh after a day off yesterday. Seattle is on a 10-4 run in their last 14 games while the Twins are in a full free-fall having lost 21 of their last 27 games! With Minny on a 6-21 run and starting pitcher Kyle Gibson 1-7 with a 5.32 ERA in his home starts this season, this is a "value" spot to lay a moderate price (currently in the -130 range) to have the hungry and superior team in this one. Seattle will have James Paxton on the mound tonight and he has given up just 4 earned runs on 9 hits in his last 13 innings on the mound. Also, the southpaw has struck out 18 in his last 17 and 1/3 innings. Paxton struck out 7 in less than 5 innings in the only start he has made against the Twins in his career. Look for plenty of K's to get piled up in this outing too as the Minnesota slump continues. Amazingly, the Twins have been held to 2 runs or less in 9 of their last 12 games. The Mariners have won 6 straight road games and averaged 6.3 runs per game during this hot streak.
Hottest team: Red Sox (8-0 last eight)
Boston is catching fire at the right time, coming off a four-game road sweep of Baltimore to extend its AL East advantage to 5 ? games with nine contests remaining. The Red Sox have scored at least five runs in each of their last eight games, while the pitching staff helped shut down the Orioles to register four straight UNDERS. Boston travels to Tampa Bay to begin a weekend series with the last-place Rays, as Boston has won seven of the past 10 matchups. Drew Pomeranz takes the mound tonight for Boston, who is winless in two starts against Tampa Bay, while the Sox are 1-4 in the southpaw?s past five outings.
Coldest team: Twins (2-8 last 10)
Even though Minnesota has pretty much been out of the playoff race since April, the Twins? offense has hit a new low in September. The Twins have been swept in consecutive series by the Mets and Tigers, scoring two runs or less in six straight games, while posting four runs in Thursday?s doubleheader sweep by Detroit. Since taking two games in Atlanta on August 16 and August 17, the Twins have slumped to a 6-27 record the past 33 contests, including a 4-12 mark at Target Field. Minnesota hosts Seattle tonight, as the Twins swept the Mariners at Safeco Field when the teams last met in late May.
USC / Utah Under 46.5
Utah?s offense has been far from impressive scoring 24 points on Southern Utah, 20 points against BYU and while they did put up 34 points last week it came against my #118 defense of San Jose St. The Utes defense however has done what was expected holding Southern Utah and San Jose St to 8.5 PPG and allowing only 328 yards and 19 points to my #48 offense, BYU. USC meanwhile is already playing their third TOP 15 defense so we basically know what to expect. The Trojans totaled a combined 16 points versus Alabama and Stanford and now they travel for a second straight week. USC HC Clay Helton has also made a QB change naming freshman Sam Darnold this week?s starter over Max Brown and while Rice-Eccles Stadium is a very tough place to make your first ever start the level of difficulty is amplified by doing so on a short week. Both teams prefer to run the ball and against FBS foes USC has run 67 and 61 plays on offense while Utah has run 65 and 67 plays. While totals can move several points the current number on this game is 46.5 and it?s a valid play at any O/U line of 43.5 or more.
-----
Ordinarily rain and a temperature in the 40?s does not have to be a big deal ? some folks might even call that ?football weather?. But it is a genuine handicapping consideration for this setting ? the Trojans rarely practice in the rain, and almost never play in temperatures that dip into the 40?s.
UTAH -3
This is an interesting game to handicap, as off the power ratings, USC at Utah is lined right about where it ought to be. I think a case can be made that the Utes opened a shade too inexpensively. Apparently, some sharp players felt that way as this line has crept up to -3. That?s right about where I priced it, as I power rated this contest at Utah -3.2.
But going beyond the ratings and focusing on the physical matchup, I think there?s a decent case to be made for the home team. For me, that focus belongs on what?s likely to take place in the trenches, which is so often a great predictor for what will happen in the game.
I?ve watched the USC duels with Alabama and Stanford, and I don?t know else how to say this, but it looked like men vs. boys on the front lines. The Trojans got pushed around by both the Crimson Tide and the Cardinal. That?s reflected in the rushing stats. Alabama won the ground game by a whopping 242-64 margin. Similarly, Stanford dominated that aspect to the tune of 295-117.
This doesn?t bode well for the Men of Troy as they journey to Salt Lake City for this challenge against Utah. It?s not like the Utes have what I?d call a dominant rushing attack. But it?s also not bad and let?s just say that Utah head coach Kyle Whittingham is no dummy. I?d be very surprised if based on what he and his staff have seen on film, it?s anything other than an effort to ground and pound by the Utes on Friday evening.
I also think that Whittingham vs. Clay Helton could be a bit of a mismatch. I might end being soaking wet with this assessment. But I was pretty vocal about my general disdain for the full time hiring of Helton as the USC head coach last season. That wasn?t meant to be a slap in the face as Helton did a nice job of stabilizing the Trojans last season in the midst of the Steve Sarkisian fiasco.
But that didn?t mean Helton was the ultimate choice to take control of the football program. I felt that USC needed to go higher profile. Time will tell on that assessment. But off the early results, I think I might have it right. True enough, USC was supposed to lose to both Alabama and Stanford. But I wasn?t impressed with the way they lost, and I suspect there?s a real chance this team could struggle to win even half their games. If that?s the way this season unfolds, the natives are going to get very restless very soon. Again.
I would think this particular game has a good chance to be fairly tight as it?s not like the 2016 Utes are any kind of powerhouse. But playing at home with revenge and owning what share looks to me to be an advantage in the trenches it?s a game I expect Utah to win.
