07:05 PM MLB [902] Washington Nationals -131 ( A Cashner - R / A Cole)
07:05 PM MLB [903] New York Mets -180 ( R Gsellman - R / A Asher - R )
08:15 PM MLB [910] Saint Louis Cardinals -202 ( T Glasnow - R /Martinez)
10:15 PM MLB [914] San Francisco Giants -122 ( R Hill - L / M Bumgarner)
08:15 PM MLB [924] Kansas City Royals -111 ( R Merritt - L / Y Ventura)
10:05 PM MLB [926] Los Angeles Angels +121 ( B Peacock - R / D Wright)
10:10 PM MLB [928] Seattle Mariners -210 ( R Alcantara - R / T Walker)
1 unit bet pays 45 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 17-166, -30.12 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23rd....yet another long dry spell, hit four teamer on Aug 17...hit nice daytime five teamer on Aug 18....won small daytime three teamer on Aug 24.....won daytime and evening parlays on Sept 7...and this 5 teamer, due to rain-shortened game became a 4 teamer on Sept 29 - last night!
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
:0074
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Washington is looking to clinch home field advantage in the National League, so there is some importance for the Nationals as they take on the emotionally-drained Marlins.
Miami came out on Monday, and let it all hang out for their fallen teammate Jose Fernandez, but as you can see there simply isn't much left for the Marlins who play tonight's game fresh off their memorial service for Fernandez yesterday back home in Miami.
I am sure the Marlins cannot wait for Sunday's regular season finale, and I don't see how they get up for this final road series of the season?
Washington has won 10 of their last 14 games at home, and while they are nursing a few injuries, I will give them the play with Cole matching pitches against Cashner tonight.
Nats over the Marlins.
Miami (78-80) was eliminated from playoff contention with home loss to the New York Mets on Wednesday. The Marlins were off Thursday as they attended the Fernandez service.
"It was tough to have a lot of emotion out there," Marlins manager Don Mattingly said after the Wednesday defeat. "I know our guys were trying. We owe that to the Cardinals and Giants (who are chasing the Mets in the NL wild-card race). Our guys did the best they possibly could, but it was a tough game to play."
I am going with the Nationals in this matchup. I can?t trust Cashner who continues to struggle, posting a terrible 7.17 ERA this month, and he is also winless on the road this season, going 0-6 with a 7.76 ERA. Also Cole has conceded three or fewer earned runs in five out of his seven starts, and I trust the Nationals strong bullpen to hold things down. Go with the Nationals in this one.
Toronto vs. Boston
Play: Boston -151
The Toronto Blue Jays travel to Boston to take on the Red Sox on Friday night. Toronto is 87-72 SU overall this year while Boston comes in with a 92-67 SU overall record on the season. Rick Porcello is 22-4 with a 3.11 ERA overall this year, 13-1 with a 2.88 ERA at home this season and 2-1 with a 2.31 ERA his last 3 starts. Toronto is scoring only 4 runs per game their past 7 games overall. Boston is scoring 6 runs per game at home this year. Boston is allowing only 3.7 runs per game their past 7 games overall. Toronto is 1-6 this year as a road underdog of +125 to +150. Boston is 8-1 this year after 3 or more consecutive losses. We'll recommend a small play on Boston tonight!
Robert Gsellman - 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks. Well looky here. The Gazelle Man had himself a field day against the Phils, coasting to the dub in a 17-0 game. That's a 2.56 ERA now in seven games (six starts) with an 8.15 K/9 and a 54.4% GB rate. Not bad stuff to get behind, right? Ehhhh I'm not entirely sold. His schedule has been average but his stuff isn't all that great. I can see him being serviceable in a 12-teamer next season if he earns the fifth job out of spring training - I do think he's a better pitcher than Seth Lugo - but I wouldn't be chasing him. More like if he's around at the end of the draft I'd go "K".
Toronto is likely in the playoffs as they have a magic number of two to clinch a playoff spot. Boston won the AL East and is battling with Texas and Cleveland to determine who seeds where in the divisional round. Porcello has been fantastic all season long and is the AL Cy Young front runner. Estrada struggled over the last month or so. Boston picks up the win as Porcello guns for #23 of the year.
In the Sights, Friday MLB?
I am going to split a ticket on #918 Boston (7:05 Eastern) between half Straight and half Run Line, with up to -150 OK on the side (there is as low as -143 out there), and +130 on the RL (I see as high as +138).
I don?t have any problem with the Red Sox lacking momentum off of that 0-3 collar at New York; if anything losing on Thursday with a reduced lineup brings a sense of urgency and physical freshness here, with all hands now on deck, and Rick Porcello out to cement his Cy Young. Porcello has had one of the best seasons in Fenway history, a 13-1/2.88 from this mound in which the only loss came by a 1-0 scoreboard, and he has been a marvel of consistency, with 12 consecutive starts in which he has allowed three runs or less. The bullpen behind him is also well positioned for the latter stages.
For Toronto it has been a woeful September at the plate, a .694 OPS that ranks #26 in the major?s (contrast that with Boston?s #3 at .793), and I do not like Marco Estrada?s fly balls in Fenway. And if it does get decided late, the Blue Jay bullpen brings some end-game confidence issues, having twice allowed leads to get away in the 9th inning at home this week.
My free play is on the Angels against the Astros.
Neither of these teams is going to the playoffs, so the party is underway for a final weekend in Anaheim. And with the Halos riding a wave of momentum to close this season out, I like them.
The Angels have won three in a row and seven of 10, and two more wins gets them at 40-40 at home this season. That's a big deal for teams, to hit .500 at home.
Houston has struggled lately, and arrives after losing its home finale to Seattle two nights ago. The Astros won't be in to this game, or series, after being eliminated from postseason contention.
Take the Halos here.
Left-hander Brent Suter will start for the Brewers, taking the place of Tyler Jungmann, who suffered a hip injury in his last start. Suter is 2-1 with a 2.16 ERA in 13 games, one start. Since making his major league debut in that start Aug. 19 at Seattle and giving up four runs in 4 1/3 innings, Suter has made 12 consecutive scoreless relief appearances totaling 12 1/3 innings with two walks and 10 strikeouts. Suter is a finesse pitcher with deception in his delivery that helps his mid-80s fastball play up, as does the speed variance he gets with a curveball in the low 70s.
The first of Suter's relief appearances was against the Rockies on Aug. 23, when Suter gave up two hits and a walk but left the bases loaded when Nick Hundley lined to second to conclude a scoreless inning.
Merritt went 11-8 with a 3.70 ERA in 24 starts with Triple-A Columbus. He has made three relief appearances with the Indians, allowing one run and three hits over six innings. Merritt, 24, was a 16th-round draft pick in 2011 out of McLennan Community College in Waco, Texas, where he was a junior college All-American.
Glasnow will make his fourth career start. His first occurred July 7 in St. Louis, where he pitched decently for 5 1/3 innings but lost 5-1 as Adam Wainwright stifled Pittsburgh for seven innings. The hard-throwing Glasnow can touch the mid to upper 90s with his fastball but has experienced command issues at times.
Cardinals -1? +114
St Louis got a fortunate call in last night's 4-3 win over the Reds and I look for them to build on that with a comfortable win at home against rival Pittsburgh on Friday. The Cardinals will send out Carlos Martinez, who is coming into this one off back-to-back quality starts, but more importantly has pitched very well against the Pirates this season. In 3 starts, he's allowed just 5 runs in 18 2/3 innings of work. Pittsburgh will counter with Tyler Glasnow, who will be making just his 4th start. The first 3 haven't been great, as he comes in with a 6.35 ERA and 1.765 WHIP. He hasn't made it past the 3rd inning in each of his last two outings and was touched up for 4 runs in 5 1/3 innings at St Louis earlier this season.
WASHINGTON -1? +177 over Miami
The Nationals need one more win to secure home-field edge over the Dodgers and we?re rather confident that they are going to give it everything they have in order to put it to rest. The Nats are two games up on L.A. but the Dodgers own the tiebreaker after going 5-1 against Washington this year. Under normal circumstances, we would not be interested in spotting runs with A.J. Cole on the hill but playing the Marlins on the final weekend of the year is anything but normal. Jose Fernandez?s funeral was yesterday so one has to believe the somber mood in that Marlins locker room remains. Cole has looked like a young starter with a lot of potential in September with a BB/K split of 4/19 in 16 innings. That level of dominance and command has helped him produce an outstanding base performance value during the last month of the season. With rock solid control against both lefty and righty bats, Cole also doesn't have a significant split holding him back. The missing piece to him becoming a strong starter is a groundball pitch but Miami is second last in the majors in HR?s so his fly-ball lean profile is not likely to hurt him here. Aside from being unmotivated and/or unfocused to a high degree, the Marlins OPS in the second half is the lowest in the majors.
Andrew Cashner is about as average or below as anyone. He comes in with a 5.13 ERA, a 4.61 xERA, a 1.51 WHIP and a weak swing and miss rate of 8%. Over his last five starts, Cashner?s ERA is 7.17. He?s also walked 16 batters over his past 21 innings. Cashner?s control is waning. His numbers versus LHB continues to be ugly with a swing and miss rate of 6%, an oppBA of .287 and a OPS of .889 (!). The Nationals are loaded with left-handed bats and figure to do damage against Cashner here, just like they have in the past when facing him. Miami?s story in the final week of the 2016 season will be told but it?s not going to include giving the Nationals a hard time in Washington?s clinching game for first place.
CINCINNATI +117 over Chicago
Josh Smith appeared in nine games (7 starts) with Cincinnati in 2015 and didn?t fare well (6.89 ERA). He has appeared in 31 games this year covering just 55 frames but has started just one game. Smith has a good arm, above average control, and a deep repertoire. He?s been mostly a starter in his career, though a less-than-stellar change-up could mean he?d be better off in the bullpen over the long-term. Smith induces groundballs with a low-90s fastball with late life and complements it with a good curveball and average slider. Though he doesn?t have a true plus pitch, he?s been able to register strikeouts by shrewd sequencing and polished pitching instincts. He?ll now face a Cubbies? team that has no interest whatsoever in playing three meaningless games in the final weekend of the year.
Chicago?s players have stated that playing this past week has felt like the third week of spring training. Joe Maddon?s plans are to give the regulars one or two at bats and then use call-ups. The Cubbies are a unmotivated bunch that cannot wait for the playoffs to begin and right now they are just showing up in body only. The Reds will play hard like they always do and they?ll feature an offense very capable of scoring. Jake Buchanan gets his first start of the year and is being used as a warm body to fill in. Buchanan is a soft-tossing strike-thrower with fairly pedestrian minor league numbers. Buchanan has been riding buses for years. He has close to 850 career minor-league innings under his belt for several different teams since 2010. Buchanan has 45 career MLB innings (1 inning this year) and they are ugly with a 4.17 ERA but a 6.22 xERA. Chicago favored here is wrong and we must try and take advantage.
Lo and behold, the Seattle Mariners are still alive in the American League wild card race. They're behind the Detroit Tigers, who are 1' games back, but the M's could still get in.
The New York Yankees are hosting the Baltimore Orioles, and it wouldn't surprise me to see the pinstripes sweep the O's in this series. If that happens, the Tigers or Mariners could sneak in.
Seattle won the series-opener last night, and the Athletics have now lost four in a row. Oakland has dropped into the basement of the AL West, and comes into the weekend having lost nine of its last 10 games.
The Mariners are 10-5 against the Athletics this season but just 2-4 at home. Seattle is playing for something now, though, and won't be losing at home this weekend.
Never bet against Bumgarner in a big game ? have you seen his postseason ERA? Plus he is 8-4 with a 2.04 ERA at home this season. Hill has been amazing but he could leave at any time if that blister flares up. The Giants are 8-2 in their past 10 home games vs. a lefty starter
Stanford (+3?) 23 WASHINGTON 21
This game could decide the winner of the Pac 12 North division and we?ll find out just how good Washington really is. While Stanford has been beating good teams Kansas State, USC, and UCLA by an average score of 25-12 the Huskies started the season with three home games against bad teams (Rutgers, Idaho, and Portland State) before being tested last week at Arizona. Washington needed overtime to tame the Wildcats, which calls into question just how good the Huskies are (since my model doesn?t think much of Arizona).
Washington?s offense has averaged 7.2 yards per play and 46 points per game but the Huskies have faced 4 bad defensive teams that would combine to allow 6.8 yards per play to an average offensive team. The best defense that Washington faced was Arizona last week (Arizona is 0.5 yppl worse than average) and the Huskies were limited to 28 points in regulation. Washington was only 0.3 yppl better than average last season and their starters have been +0.5 yppl this season so far, which is pretty close to what I projected before the season began.
That unit should be held in check by a good Stanford defense that has limited 3 better than average offensive teams to just 12 points and 5.2 yards per play. Stanford will be without their two starting cornerbacks Meeks and Holder, but the two filling in, Murphy and Alexander, have combined for 5 passes defended and the Cardinal defense played great in the second half last week after Meeks and Holder were injured. I did adjust the Stanford pass defense a bit even though there is no evidence that they?ll be any worse. My model does project Washington quarterback Jake Browning to have pretty good success (7.2 yppp) but the Huskies? run game should be held in check by a strong Cardinal defensive front.
Washington?s defense was very good last season and has been very good so far this season, as the Huskies? starting unit has been 0.4 yards per rushing play better than average and 2.0 yards per pass play better than average (they gave up a lot of passing yards in the first 3 games after their starters were pulled and I don?t use those stats in my model). Washington?s run defense is actually better than they?ve shown (4.5 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would average 4.9 yprp against an average defense) but Arizona?s elusive quarterback Dawkins ran for 180 yards on 11 runs last week. Those numbers aren?t relevant in this game since Stanford?s quarterback Ryan Burns has run only 9 times in 3 games (for 49 yards) and I used on Washington?s run defense numbers against running backs in my model for this game. the Huskies? run defense has been great against running backs ? although tonight they?ll be tested by Christian McCaffrey.
McCaffrey has averaged a good, but not great, 5.5 ypr so far this season but the Cardinal have faced teams that are really good defending the run (those teams would allow only 4.2 yprp to an average team), so he?s actually been really good when compensating for the defenses he?s faced so far. Washington should do a good job containing McCaffrey and the pass defense has an advantage over Burns but Stanford is historically good at converting 3rd downs and keeping drives alive and that has been the case against this season (50% 1st downs on 3rd and 4th down despite facing 3 good defensive teams).
While Washington should average more yards per play my model projects Stanford to run significantly more plays and for the totals yards to be pretty even. The Cardinal have the edge with their special teams, which helps with field position and converting stalled drives into points with a kicker that is among the best in the nation (24 for 26 on field goals since last season). I?ll call for a mini upset and side with the Cardinal plus the points.
Your Friday freebie is the Under in Toledo and BYU.
The Rockets hit Provo this Friday night with an average of 42.6 points per game score, and Overs in their last pair of games!
That's all fine and dandy, but let's see if they can crank it up against a BYU team that is allowing an average of just 22 points per game to be scored against them. The Cougars holding Under in 3 of their 4 games this season as well.
BYU has only been able to score just under 21 points per game themselves, so in order to garner the win this Friday night, it would serve the Cougars well to keep Toledo from blasting off (pun intended).
With this being such an unusual trip for MAC rep Toledo, look for it to take a while for the Rockets to get acclimated, and look for the Under to be the play on Friday night.
Toledo-BYU Under the total.
Toledo +3?
Even though Toledo is 3-0 and BYU is just 1-3, I fully expect the public to be on the Cougars Friday. Oddsmakers are well aware of this, yet BYU is only a 3.5-point favorite. Keep in mind this line actually opened at 4.5, so early sharp money is on the Rockets.
The big thing that everyone is going to point to is the level of competition for both teams. Toledo has beat up on some bad teams in Arkansas State, Maine and Fresno State. BYU on the other hand has 3 losses to the likes of Utah, UCLA and West Virginia. All coming by 3-points or less.
While Toledo has played some bad teams, it?s not like they are just scraping by against them. The Rockets have absolutely dominated the opposition. They come in averaging 42.7 ppg on a 564 ypg. Defensively they are only giving up 10.0 ppg and 252 ypg.
If you have watched Toledo play, you know they like to play fast offensively. Similarly to BYU?s last opponent in West Virginia. The Mountaineers up-tempo attack had plenty of success against the Cougars defense. West Virginia put up 481 yards and racked up 26 first downs. Most of that coming through the air, as Skylar Howard completed 31 of 40 attempts for 332 yards.
Toledo?s offense is led by the play of talented junior quarterback Logan Woodside. He?s completed 62.2% of his attempts with 11 touchdowns to just 1 interception. It?s not just the passing game BYU has to be worried about. The Cougars as a team are averaging 5.2 yards/carry on the ground. They have three talented backs who can wear down a defense.
Another big factor here that I think is getting overlooked is the fact that Toledo is coming off a bye. So while BYU is playing on just 5 days of rest, the Rockets will have had 12 days off since their last game. Keep in mind that the Cougars have played a gauntlet of a schedule to start and all 4 games have come down to the wire. If BYU doesn?t give Toledo the respect it deserves, I could easily see the Rockets winning this game.
BYU is just 4-14 ATS in their last 18 home games against teams who are averaging 450 or more totals yards/game. Toledo is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games and 20-6 ATS in their last 26 off a home win by 28 or more points.
Toledo +3? over BYU
The Rockets enter with a record of 3-0 but the market is not putting a lot of weight on their early season success. Toledo has beaten down on two cupcakes (Fresno State and Maine) after yielding an impressive rout of Arkansas State in its season opening contest on the road at Jonesboro.
BYU comes in at 1-3, the victims of three consecutive losses, all of which were by marginal differences of three points or less. The list of bitter losses includes Utah 17-14 in the latest adaptation of The Holy War, UCLA by the slight score of 20-19 and most recently a demoralizing road loss at West Virginia where the Cougars once again fell by just a field goal. With the losses stacking up for the Cougars against Power Five Conference competition, this match-up against Toledo seems like a walk in the park for the men of Brigham Young. However, Toledo is not your average Group of Five football team. Furthermore, we don?t know how BYU will come in to this one in terms of the psyche from losing game after game in such disparaging fashion.
The Cougars will need to bring their A-game against the Rockets and they may not have it in them. This is a Toledo squad that won 10 games in 2015 and they have traveled to hostile environments on the road before and pulled off victories. Ask Arkansas about Toledo?s efforts when the highly touted Razorbacks fell in their opening game of 2015 at home against this same Toledo outfit. Furthermore, let us regurgitate the fact that this team ransacked Arkansas State on the road to open the season and Ark State in their own right was a nine-game winner last year. The Rockets assaulted Arkansas State 31-10. While to many, Toledo may have lost their razor?s edge but this team has never sharper. Toledo will approach BYU no differently than they do any other team it faces with a robust defense complemented by an innovative rushing attack that when it gets going, is seemingly unstoppable. Sure, many can make the argument that BYU has played a tough schedule and is a play away in all of them from being 4-0 but losses take a toll and they provide a mindset too. Cougars? backers beware, as this game will be no walk in the park. Toledo is a football team that can easily be playing for bowl games of consequence in the near future. They are good enough to be in this one to the wire and they?re also good enough to win outright.
In the Sights, Saturday NCAA?
For all of the speed on the field and the wide-open playbooks that are a part of college football these days, there is still room for doing things the smart way, building a team from then inside out via smart fundamentals. That is what Bill Snyder does at Kansas State, perhaps the only way to make things work there because it is not a recruiting hotbed. Meanwhile Dana Holgorsen does things the opposite way at West Virginia, building from the outside in, with a creative playbook that can make a lot of things happen, but can also come up short in terms of basic football smarts and execution.
What happens when Snyder and Holgorsen go head-to-head? We bet, that is what happens, and that means #125 Kansas Sate (3:30 Eastern, note the time change) going into pocket, with some 3.5 out there in the current trading, and this one good at +3 or better. If you can take +140 or better I would also play one-third of the ticket on the Money Line.
KSU/WVU have met four times since becoming Big 12 brethren and it has been a 4-0 SU and ATS for Snyder, games in which his team has surpassed the market expectations by a meaningful 70 points. In three of those games the Wildcats were the underdog, which makes an even bigger statement.
It isn?t just the fact that State will play smarter and execute better, but also a particular aspect of the matchup, a physical running game with zone read aspects that has consistently bulled its way against a quick, but small, Mountaineer defense. Jesse Ertz is just the guy to make that happen again, and note that while WVU has gotten out of the gate 3-0, the defense is allowing 214 yards per game on the ground at 5.0 per carry. The ability of K-State to control the line of scrimmage has been a key in the past in this matchup, and is out there again, so it would be no surprise if the Wildcats grab another outright win in a result that will be labeled as an upset, but isn?t.
07:05 PM MLB [903] New York Mets -180 ( R Gsellman - R / A Asher - R )
08:15 PM MLB [910] Saint Louis Cardinals -202 ( T Glasnow - R /Martinez)
10:15 PM MLB [914] San Francisco Giants -122 ( R Hill - L / M Bumgarner)
08:15 PM MLB [924] Kansas City Royals -111 ( R Merritt - L / Y Ventura)
10:05 PM MLB [926] Los Angeles Angels +121 ( B Peacock - R / D Wright)
10:10 PM MLB [928] Seattle Mariners -210 ( R Alcantara - R / T Walker)
1 unit bet pays 45 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 17-166, -30.12 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23rd....yet another long dry spell, hit four teamer on Aug 17...hit nice daytime five teamer on Aug 18....won small daytime three teamer on Aug 24.....won daytime and evening parlays on Sept 7...and this 5 teamer, due to rain-shortened game became a 4 teamer on Sept 29 - last night!
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Washington is looking to clinch home field advantage in the National League, so there is some importance for the Nationals as they take on the emotionally-drained Marlins.
Miami came out on Monday, and let it all hang out for their fallen teammate Jose Fernandez, but as you can see there simply isn't much left for the Marlins who play tonight's game fresh off their memorial service for Fernandez yesterday back home in Miami.
I am sure the Marlins cannot wait for Sunday's regular season finale, and I don't see how they get up for this final road series of the season?
Washington has won 10 of their last 14 games at home, and while they are nursing a few injuries, I will give them the play with Cole matching pitches against Cashner tonight.
Nats over the Marlins.
Miami (78-80) was eliminated from playoff contention with home loss to the New York Mets on Wednesday. The Marlins were off Thursday as they attended the Fernandez service.
"It was tough to have a lot of emotion out there," Marlins manager Don Mattingly said after the Wednesday defeat. "I know our guys were trying. We owe that to the Cardinals and Giants (who are chasing the Mets in the NL wild-card race). Our guys did the best they possibly could, but it was a tough game to play."
I am going with the Nationals in this matchup. I can?t trust Cashner who continues to struggle, posting a terrible 7.17 ERA this month, and he is also winless on the road this season, going 0-6 with a 7.76 ERA. Also Cole has conceded three or fewer earned runs in five out of his seven starts, and I trust the Nationals strong bullpen to hold things down. Go with the Nationals in this one.
Toronto vs. Boston
Play: Boston -151
The Toronto Blue Jays travel to Boston to take on the Red Sox on Friday night. Toronto is 87-72 SU overall this year while Boston comes in with a 92-67 SU overall record on the season. Rick Porcello is 22-4 with a 3.11 ERA overall this year, 13-1 with a 2.88 ERA at home this season and 2-1 with a 2.31 ERA his last 3 starts. Toronto is scoring only 4 runs per game their past 7 games overall. Boston is scoring 6 runs per game at home this year. Boston is allowing only 3.7 runs per game their past 7 games overall. Toronto is 1-6 this year as a road underdog of +125 to +150. Boston is 8-1 this year after 3 or more consecutive losses. We'll recommend a small play on Boston tonight!
Robert Gsellman - 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks. Well looky here. The Gazelle Man had himself a field day against the Phils, coasting to the dub in a 17-0 game. That's a 2.56 ERA now in seven games (six starts) with an 8.15 K/9 and a 54.4% GB rate. Not bad stuff to get behind, right? Ehhhh I'm not entirely sold. His schedule has been average but his stuff isn't all that great. I can see him being serviceable in a 12-teamer next season if he earns the fifth job out of spring training - I do think he's a better pitcher than Seth Lugo - but I wouldn't be chasing him. More like if he's around at the end of the draft I'd go "K".
Toronto is likely in the playoffs as they have a magic number of two to clinch a playoff spot. Boston won the AL East and is battling with Texas and Cleveland to determine who seeds where in the divisional round. Porcello has been fantastic all season long and is the AL Cy Young front runner. Estrada struggled over the last month or so. Boston picks up the win as Porcello guns for #23 of the year.
In the Sights, Friday MLB?
I am going to split a ticket on #918 Boston (7:05 Eastern) between half Straight and half Run Line, with up to -150 OK on the side (there is as low as -143 out there), and +130 on the RL (I see as high as +138).
I don?t have any problem with the Red Sox lacking momentum off of that 0-3 collar at New York; if anything losing on Thursday with a reduced lineup brings a sense of urgency and physical freshness here, with all hands now on deck, and Rick Porcello out to cement his Cy Young. Porcello has had one of the best seasons in Fenway history, a 13-1/2.88 from this mound in which the only loss came by a 1-0 scoreboard, and he has been a marvel of consistency, with 12 consecutive starts in which he has allowed three runs or less. The bullpen behind him is also well positioned for the latter stages.
For Toronto it has been a woeful September at the plate, a .694 OPS that ranks #26 in the major?s (contrast that with Boston?s #3 at .793), and I do not like Marco Estrada?s fly balls in Fenway. And if it does get decided late, the Blue Jay bullpen brings some end-game confidence issues, having twice allowed leads to get away in the 9th inning at home this week.
My free play is on the Angels against the Astros.
Neither of these teams is going to the playoffs, so the party is underway for a final weekend in Anaheim. And with the Halos riding a wave of momentum to close this season out, I like them.
The Angels have won three in a row and seven of 10, and two more wins gets them at 40-40 at home this season. That's a big deal for teams, to hit .500 at home.
Houston has struggled lately, and arrives after losing its home finale to Seattle two nights ago. The Astros won't be in to this game, or series, after being eliminated from postseason contention.
Take the Halos here.
Left-hander Brent Suter will start for the Brewers, taking the place of Tyler Jungmann, who suffered a hip injury in his last start. Suter is 2-1 with a 2.16 ERA in 13 games, one start. Since making his major league debut in that start Aug. 19 at Seattle and giving up four runs in 4 1/3 innings, Suter has made 12 consecutive scoreless relief appearances totaling 12 1/3 innings with two walks and 10 strikeouts. Suter is a finesse pitcher with deception in his delivery that helps his mid-80s fastball play up, as does the speed variance he gets with a curveball in the low 70s.
The first of Suter's relief appearances was against the Rockies on Aug. 23, when Suter gave up two hits and a walk but left the bases loaded when Nick Hundley lined to second to conclude a scoreless inning.
Merritt went 11-8 with a 3.70 ERA in 24 starts with Triple-A Columbus. He has made three relief appearances with the Indians, allowing one run and three hits over six innings. Merritt, 24, was a 16th-round draft pick in 2011 out of McLennan Community College in Waco, Texas, where he was a junior college All-American.
Glasnow will make his fourth career start. His first occurred July 7 in St. Louis, where he pitched decently for 5 1/3 innings but lost 5-1 as Adam Wainwright stifled Pittsburgh for seven innings. The hard-throwing Glasnow can touch the mid to upper 90s with his fastball but has experienced command issues at times.
Cardinals -1? +114
St Louis got a fortunate call in last night's 4-3 win over the Reds and I look for them to build on that with a comfortable win at home against rival Pittsburgh on Friday. The Cardinals will send out Carlos Martinez, who is coming into this one off back-to-back quality starts, but more importantly has pitched very well against the Pirates this season. In 3 starts, he's allowed just 5 runs in 18 2/3 innings of work. Pittsburgh will counter with Tyler Glasnow, who will be making just his 4th start. The first 3 haven't been great, as he comes in with a 6.35 ERA and 1.765 WHIP. He hasn't made it past the 3rd inning in each of his last two outings and was touched up for 4 runs in 5 1/3 innings at St Louis earlier this season.
WASHINGTON -1? +177 over Miami
The Nationals need one more win to secure home-field edge over the Dodgers and we?re rather confident that they are going to give it everything they have in order to put it to rest. The Nats are two games up on L.A. but the Dodgers own the tiebreaker after going 5-1 against Washington this year. Under normal circumstances, we would not be interested in spotting runs with A.J. Cole on the hill but playing the Marlins on the final weekend of the year is anything but normal. Jose Fernandez?s funeral was yesterday so one has to believe the somber mood in that Marlins locker room remains. Cole has looked like a young starter with a lot of potential in September with a BB/K split of 4/19 in 16 innings. That level of dominance and command has helped him produce an outstanding base performance value during the last month of the season. With rock solid control against both lefty and righty bats, Cole also doesn't have a significant split holding him back. The missing piece to him becoming a strong starter is a groundball pitch but Miami is second last in the majors in HR?s so his fly-ball lean profile is not likely to hurt him here. Aside from being unmotivated and/or unfocused to a high degree, the Marlins OPS in the second half is the lowest in the majors.
Andrew Cashner is about as average or below as anyone. He comes in with a 5.13 ERA, a 4.61 xERA, a 1.51 WHIP and a weak swing and miss rate of 8%. Over his last five starts, Cashner?s ERA is 7.17. He?s also walked 16 batters over his past 21 innings. Cashner?s control is waning. His numbers versus LHB continues to be ugly with a swing and miss rate of 6%, an oppBA of .287 and a OPS of .889 (!). The Nationals are loaded with left-handed bats and figure to do damage against Cashner here, just like they have in the past when facing him. Miami?s story in the final week of the 2016 season will be told but it?s not going to include giving the Nationals a hard time in Washington?s clinching game for first place.
CINCINNATI +117 over Chicago
Josh Smith appeared in nine games (7 starts) with Cincinnati in 2015 and didn?t fare well (6.89 ERA). He has appeared in 31 games this year covering just 55 frames but has started just one game. Smith has a good arm, above average control, and a deep repertoire. He?s been mostly a starter in his career, though a less-than-stellar change-up could mean he?d be better off in the bullpen over the long-term. Smith induces groundballs with a low-90s fastball with late life and complements it with a good curveball and average slider. Though he doesn?t have a true plus pitch, he?s been able to register strikeouts by shrewd sequencing and polished pitching instincts. He?ll now face a Cubbies? team that has no interest whatsoever in playing three meaningless games in the final weekend of the year.
Chicago?s players have stated that playing this past week has felt like the third week of spring training. Joe Maddon?s plans are to give the regulars one or two at bats and then use call-ups. The Cubbies are a unmotivated bunch that cannot wait for the playoffs to begin and right now they are just showing up in body only. The Reds will play hard like they always do and they?ll feature an offense very capable of scoring. Jake Buchanan gets his first start of the year and is being used as a warm body to fill in. Buchanan is a soft-tossing strike-thrower with fairly pedestrian minor league numbers. Buchanan has been riding buses for years. He has close to 850 career minor-league innings under his belt for several different teams since 2010. Buchanan has 45 career MLB innings (1 inning this year) and they are ugly with a 4.17 ERA but a 6.22 xERA. Chicago favored here is wrong and we must try and take advantage.
Lo and behold, the Seattle Mariners are still alive in the American League wild card race. They're behind the Detroit Tigers, who are 1' games back, but the M's could still get in.
The New York Yankees are hosting the Baltimore Orioles, and it wouldn't surprise me to see the pinstripes sweep the O's in this series. If that happens, the Tigers or Mariners could sneak in.
Seattle won the series-opener last night, and the Athletics have now lost four in a row. Oakland has dropped into the basement of the AL West, and comes into the weekend having lost nine of its last 10 games.
The Mariners are 10-5 against the Athletics this season but just 2-4 at home. Seattle is playing for something now, though, and won't be losing at home this weekend.
Never bet against Bumgarner in a big game ? have you seen his postseason ERA? Plus he is 8-4 with a 2.04 ERA at home this season. Hill has been amazing but he could leave at any time if that blister flares up. The Giants are 8-2 in their past 10 home games vs. a lefty starter
Stanford (+3?) 23 WASHINGTON 21
This game could decide the winner of the Pac 12 North division and we?ll find out just how good Washington really is. While Stanford has been beating good teams Kansas State, USC, and UCLA by an average score of 25-12 the Huskies started the season with three home games against bad teams (Rutgers, Idaho, and Portland State) before being tested last week at Arizona. Washington needed overtime to tame the Wildcats, which calls into question just how good the Huskies are (since my model doesn?t think much of Arizona).
Washington?s offense has averaged 7.2 yards per play and 46 points per game but the Huskies have faced 4 bad defensive teams that would combine to allow 6.8 yards per play to an average offensive team. The best defense that Washington faced was Arizona last week (Arizona is 0.5 yppl worse than average) and the Huskies were limited to 28 points in regulation. Washington was only 0.3 yppl better than average last season and their starters have been +0.5 yppl this season so far, which is pretty close to what I projected before the season began.
That unit should be held in check by a good Stanford defense that has limited 3 better than average offensive teams to just 12 points and 5.2 yards per play. Stanford will be without their two starting cornerbacks Meeks and Holder, but the two filling in, Murphy and Alexander, have combined for 5 passes defended and the Cardinal defense played great in the second half last week after Meeks and Holder were injured. I did adjust the Stanford pass defense a bit even though there is no evidence that they?ll be any worse. My model does project Washington quarterback Jake Browning to have pretty good success (7.2 yppp) but the Huskies? run game should be held in check by a strong Cardinal defensive front.
Washington?s defense was very good last season and has been very good so far this season, as the Huskies? starting unit has been 0.4 yards per rushing play better than average and 2.0 yards per pass play better than average (they gave up a lot of passing yards in the first 3 games after their starters were pulled and I don?t use those stats in my model). Washington?s run defense is actually better than they?ve shown (4.5 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would average 4.9 yprp against an average defense) but Arizona?s elusive quarterback Dawkins ran for 180 yards on 11 runs last week. Those numbers aren?t relevant in this game since Stanford?s quarterback Ryan Burns has run only 9 times in 3 games (for 49 yards) and I used on Washington?s run defense numbers against running backs in my model for this game. the Huskies? run defense has been great against running backs ? although tonight they?ll be tested by Christian McCaffrey.
McCaffrey has averaged a good, but not great, 5.5 ypr so far this season but the Cardinal have faced teams that are really good defending the run (those teams would allow only 4.2 yprp to an average team), so he?s actually been really good when compensating for the defenses he?s faced so far. Washington should do a good job containing McCaffrey and the pass defense has an advantage over Burns but Stanford is historically good at converting 3rd downs and keeping drives alive and that has been the case against this season (50% 1st downs on 3rd and 4th down despite facing 3 good defensive teams).
While Washington should average more yards per play my model projects Stanford to run significantly more plays and for the totals yards to be pretty even. The Cardinal have the edge with their special teams, which helps with field position and converting stalled drives into points with a kicker that is among the best in the nation (24 for 26 on field goals since last season). I?ll call for a mini upset and side with the Cardinal plus the points.
Your Friday freebie is the Under in Toledo and BYU.
The Rockets hit Provo this Friday night with an average of 42.6 points per game score, and Overs in their last pair of games!
That's all fine and dandy, but let's see if they can crank it up against a BYU team that is allowing an average of just 22 points per game to be scored against them. The Cougars holding Under in 3 of their 4 games this season as well.
BYU has only been able to score just under 21 points per game themselves, so in order to garner the win this Friday night, it would serve the Cougars well to keep Toledo from blasting off (pun intended).
With this being such an unusual trip for MAC rep Toledo, look for it to take a while for the Rockets to get acclimated, and look for the Under to be the play on Friday night.
Toledo-BYU Under the total.
Toledo +3?
Even though Toledo is 3-0 and BYU is just 1-3, I fully expect the public to be on the Cougars Friday. Oddsmakers are well aware of this, yet BYU is only a 3.5-point favorite. Keep in mind this line actually opened at 4.5, so early sharp money is on the Rockets.
The big thing that everyone is going to point to is the level of competition for both teams. Toledo has beat up on some bad teams in Arkansas State, Maine and Fresno State. BYU on the other hand has 3 losses to the likes of Utah, UCLA and West Virginia. All coming by 3-points or less.
While Toledo has played some bad teams, it?s not like they are just scraping by against them. The Rockets have absolutely dominated the opposition. They come in averaging 42.7 ppg on a 564 ypg. Defensively they are only giving up 10.0 ppg and 252 ypg.
If you have watched Toledo play, you know they like to play fast offensively. Similarly to BYU?s last opponent in West Virginia. The Mountaineers up-tempo attack had plenty of success against the Cougars defense. West Virginia put up 481 yards and racked up 26 first downs. Most of that coming through the air, as Skylar Howard completed 31 of 40 attempts for 332 yards.
Toledo?s offense is led by the play of talented junior quarterback Logan Woodside. He?s completed 62.2% of his attempts with 11 touchdowns to just 1 interception. It?s not just the passing game BYU has to be worried about. The Cougars as a team are averaging 5.2 yards/carry on the ground. They have three talented backs who can wear down a defense.
Another big factor here that I think is getting overlooked is the fact that Toledo is coming off a bye. So while BYU is playing on just 5 days of rest, the Rockets will have had 12 days off since their last game. Keep in mind that the Cougars have played a gauntlet of a schedule to start and all 4 games have come down to the wire. If BYU doesn?t give Toledo the respect it deserves, I could easily see the Rockets winning this game.
BYU is just 4-14 ATS in their last 18 home games against teams who are averaging 450 or more totals yards/game. Toledo is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games and 20-6 ATS in their last 26 off a home win by 28 or more points.
Toledo +3? over BYU
The Rockets enter with a record of 3-0 but the market is not putting a lot of weight on their early season success. Toledo has beaten down on two cupcakes (Fresno State and Maine) after yielding an impressive rout of Arkansas State in its season opening contest on the road at Jonesboro.
BYU comes in at 1-3, the victims of three consecutive losses, all of which were by marginal differences of three points or less. The list of bitter losses includes Utah 17-14 in the latest adaptation of The Holy War, UCLA by the slight score of 20-19 and most recently a demoralizing road loss at West Virginia where the Cougars once again fell by just a field goal. With the losses stacking up for the Cougars against Power Five Conference competition, this match-up against Toledo seems like a walk in the park for the men of Brigham Young. However, Toledo is not your average Group of Five football team. Furthermore, we don?t know how BYU will come in to this one in terms of the psyche from losing game after game in such disparaging fashion.
The Cougars will need to bring their A-game against the Rockets and they may not have it in them. This is a Toledo squad that won 10 games in 2015 and they have traveled to hostile environments on the road before and pulled off victories. Ask Arkansas about Toledo?s efforts when the highly touted Razorbacks fell in their opening game of 2015 at home against this same Toledo outfit. Furthermore, let us regurgitate the fact that this team ransacked Arkansas State on the road to open the season and Ark State in their own right was a nine-game winner last year. The Rockets assaulted Arkansas State 31-10. While to many, Toledo may have lost their razor?s edge but this team has never sharper. Toledo will approach BYU no differently than they do any other team it faces with a robust defense complemented by an innovative rushing attack that when it gets going, is seemingly unstoppable. Sure, many can make the argument that BYU has played a tough schedule and is a play away in all of them from being 4-0 but losses take a toll and they provide a mindset too. Cougars? backers beware, as this game will be no walk in the park. Toledo is a football team that can easily be playing for bowl games of consequence in the near future. They are good enough to be in this one to the wire and they?re also good enough to win outright.
In the Sights, Saturday NCAA?
For all of the speed on the field and the wide-open playbooks that are a part of college football these days, there is still room for doing things the smart way, building a team from then inside out via smart fundamentals. That is what Bill Snyder does at Kansas State, perhaps the only way to make things work there because it is not a recruiting hotbed. Meanwhile Dana Holgorsen does things the opposite way at West Virginia, building from the outside in, with a creative playbook that can make a lot of things happen, but can also come up short in terms of basic football smarts and execution.
What happens when Snyder and Holgorsen go head-to-head? We bet, that is what happens, and that means #125 Kansas Sate (3:30 Eastern, note the time change) going into pocket, with some 3.5 out there in the current trading, and this one good at +3 or better. If you can take +140 or better I would also play one-third of the ticket on the Money Line.
KSU/WVU have met four times since becoming Big 12 brethren and it has been a 4-0 SU and ATS for Snyder, games in which his team has surpassed the market expectations by a meaningful 70 points. In three of those games the Wildcats were the underdog, which makes an even bigger statement.
It isn?t just the fact that State will play smarter and execute better, but also a particular aspect of the matchup, a physical running game with zone read aspects that has consistently bulled its way against a quick, but small, Mountaineer defense. Jesse Ertz is just the guy to make that happen again, and note that while WVU has gotten out of the gate 3-0, the defense is allowing 214 yards per game on the ground at 5.0 per carry. The ability of K-State to control the line of scrimmage has been a key in the past in this matchup, and is out there again, so it would be no surprise if the Wildcats grab another outright win in a result that will be labeled as an upset, but isn?t.
