08:00 PM CBB Added Game [786] Arkansas -14.5 -110
07:00 PM CBB [735] La Salle -2-110
09:00 PM CBB [748] UCLA -17-110
07:05 PM NBA [703] Utah Jazz -5-110
08:35 PM NBA [714] San Antonio Spurs -8.5 -110
10:05 PM NBA [716] Portland Trail Blazers -6.5 -110
07:05 PM NHL [53] TOTAL o5.5 -125 (Philadelphia Flyers vrs Toronto Maple Leafs)
08:35 PM NHL [58] Chicago Blackhawks +110
09:05 PM NHL [59] TOTAL o5.5 -110 (Dallas Stars vrs Edmonton Oilers)
1 unit bet pays 348 ....betdsi line
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Drake (-7) over South Dakota
As for this play, I know it is a bit obscure. But I think that this is a chance to take advantage of a bit of a mismatch. South Dakota has to replace all five starters from last season's 14-18 squad. This is a program that's only been in Division I for a handful of years and they don't just reload. Last year they lost to Wright State (by eight) and Northern Illinois (by seven) in their first two games, and it should be even rougher for them now with a lot of freshmen and sophomores getting their first real action on the road. Drake has nowhere to go but up. They won just seven games last year, but they have four starters back, including leading scorer Reed Timmer (16.8 PPG) and seven-footer Jacob Enevold Jensen. Drake went 4-1 last year against teams rated No. 275 or worse, and I think that they will be focused and ready to get off to a positive start.
Georgia @ Clemson
Pick: Clemson -4.5
Clemson is loaded with talent, with a slew of big men transferring in to join All-ACC forward Jaron Blossomgame (18.7 points per game, 6.7 rebounds per game). He turned down a likely NBA Draft selection to return for his senior season, and he was the #3 scorer in the ACC last year. The Tigers defeated three ranked opponents in 2015-16 (Louisville, Duke and Miami), the most victories over ranked opposition in school history. They are in revenge mode at home against a Georgia squad that embarrassed them last season. The Bulldogs have to replace their starting backcourt and the home team is 4-0 ATS when these teams collide.
Friday's free play release will be backing the Bruins of UCLA as the heavy favorite over the Tigers of Pacific from Westwood.
The seat is "hot" for UCLA coach Steve Alford, as his Bruins faltered last season at 15-17. Look for a quick turnaround this season for the Uclans, and tonight's opener against a Tigers team with not much offensive firepower is just the right opponent to visit Pauley tonight.
The Bruins did not have anybody leave for the NBA last season, so back in uniform are Lonzo Ball and T.J. Leaf. Throw in big man Thomas Walsh in the paint, and coaches son Bryce Alford sniping from behind the arc, and this one has the makings of an opening night can of whip ass being opened on Pacific and their first-year coach Damon Stoudarmire!
Stoudamire did import a pair of transfers in Miles Reynolds from Saint Louis, and TySean Powell from Duquesne, but they must sit this season.
There just isn't much on this roster to suggest the Tigers have much bite tonight, even plus this many points.
Pacific is just 2-9-1 against the spread their last dozen versus the Pac 12, and after tonight that mark drops to 2-10-1.
UCLA big.
5* UCLA
La Salle vs. Temple
Play: La Salle -1?
Huge line movement here in favor of La Salle. Temple lost 3 of their top 4 scorers from last season and the teams starting point guard is iffy for this matchup tonight. Look for La Salle to start this season off right. Led by Jordan Price who averaged 19 points, the Explorer will also be helped by 3 transfers who all had starting experience at their previous schools.
Item: So many teams, so many methods
The opening of the college hoops board can be among the most intimidating challenges for the handicapper, with so many teams to study and it all happening right in the heart of football season, and with the NBA already in full swing. So let?s set up the Golden Rule behind the early season ? It is better to know a lot about a few teams, that to know a little about many of them. That is certainly the way that I will play it.
Let?s start with a few basics that tie directly to the first wave of games - a priority is to be looking for teams that want to win now. That may sound obvious, but it isn?t. When Michigan State and Arizona tip off on ESPN from Pearl Harbor this evening we are going to see the same scowl from Tom Izzo when something goes wrong that we have all been accustomed to through the years. But the scowl will be because someone did not make a play that they should have, and not because of the scoreboard.
What is the goal for Izzo, and many coaches of elite teams? Just begin building, piece by piece, while aiming for the construction to be meaningful come tournament time. Izzo would obviously like to win the game tonight but it is not a priority ? his Spartans will also face Kentucky and Duke over the next few weeks, in addition to participating in the Battle for Atlantis Tournament, so the outcome of any single game just doesn?t mean much. It is all about building, and in this particular instance the fact that Sparty will have freshmen Joshua Langford and Miles Bridges as main cogs in the rotation creates even less need for urgency.
How does one get the best feel for who wants to win immediately, and who is merely building towards the conference schedule, or the tournament? There is no automatic formula; it really does come down to knowing each coach, and what his particular vision is. But there is something that you can use in terms of finding teams that may be more ready to get out of the gate well than others.
Item: For these teams ?traveling? is a good thing
Getting whistled for traveling on the court is bad. But having to go through a travel agent before the season begins can be a very good thing. The NCAA allows teams to take international tours to play games that do not count against the regular season schedule, and a significant bonus for teams that take such a trip is that they are also entitled to 10 days of practice before they depart. Naturally that matters in terms of rhythm and chemistry to get out of the gate well.
Here are the lined teams that fall on the list this season (apologies if I missed a few), along with the dates if you would like to go back and dig a little more deeply on how the trip went.
Akron -- Bahamas (Aug. 12-17), Appalachian State -- Slovenia, Italy (Aug. 3-15), Arkansas -- Spain (Aug. 6-16), Boise State -- Costa Rica (Aug. 11-16), Bowling Green -- Italy (Aug. 8-18), Buffalo -- Toronto, Canada (Aug. 20-26), Central Michigan -- Bahamas (Aug. 11-16), Charlotte -- Canada (Aug. 10-17), Cornell -- Spain (Aug. 9-19), Dayton -- Spain (Aug. 5-14), Eastern Michigan -- Bahamas (Aug. 23-28), FAU -- Bahamas (Aug. 13-18), George Washington -- Japan (Aug. 10-22), Georgia -- Spain (July 31-Aug. 9), Idaho -- China (June 10-25), Kansas State -- Italy, Switzerland (Aug. 8-19), Loyola-Chicago -- Spain (Aug. 12-22), Missouri -- Italy (Aug. 5-15), Missouri State -- Bahamas (Aug. 2-7), Northeastern -- Germany, Luxembourg (Aug. 23-Sept. 5), Old Dominion -- Spain (Aug. 16-25), Oregon -- Spain (Aug. 21-31)
Pacific -- Germany, Croatia (Aug. 8-18), Purdue -- Spain (Aug. 7-17), Richmond -- Ireland, Netherlands, Germany (Aug. 8-20), San Francisco -- Germany, Italy, Belgium (Aug. 4-14), Santa Clara -- Italy (Aug. 20-30), South Alabama -- Spain, Serbia (July 26-Aug. 5), South Carolina -- Costa Rica (Aug. 6-12), UC Davis -- Costa Rica (Aug. 20-27), UCLA -- Australia (Aug. 19-31), UNLV -- Bahamas (Aug. 13-20), VCU -- Spain (Aug. 12-22), Villanova -- Spain (Aug. 2-10), Virginia -- Spain (Aug. 8-18), Wake Forest -- Bahamas (Aug. 15-20), Washington -- Australia-New Zealand (July 31-Aug. 11), Washington State -- Italy (Aug. 4-14), Western Michigan -- Amsterdam, Belgium, Paris (Aug. 21-31), Wyoming -- Bahamas (Aug. 8-13), Wichita State -- Montreal (Aug. 5-11)
Item: And some teams may get a little more home court advantage tonight
As is the case across all sports, every little edge matters, even if it is just a half point or so. There is one that will be in play for some teams the next few Friday nights ? be on the lookout for teams that have a home game the night before the football team also has a home game.
Here is the gist ? many times these become alumni weekends, with folks coming to watch both games, and it not only brings a bigger Friday crowd, but it also creates an inducement to the players and coaches to show well, hoping to get those same fans to come back for more games later in the season. If you sort through those situations carefully you will find a few in which the factor does play a key role, and sometimes even creates a value point to step in. There is one such setting on tonight?s board that will have me in play,
In the Sights?
There is an opportunity to combine several prime early-season handicapping factors into one of the Friday settings, and it leads to #786 Arkansas (8:00 Eastern, note the time change), with -13.5 available across the board this morning, and value extending to -15.
This season was going to bring a sense of urgency to Mike Anderson and his team regardless of how other things laid out ? that 16-16 of last year was a major disappointment, Anderson not having the rotation for the 40 minutes of intense defensive pressure that he prefers. Now there is plenty of depth and athleticism, and those presses can be extended even further down the court when there is a rim protector like Moses Kingsley on the court. The Razorbacks got a chance to develop with their trip to Spain, and also helped get up to speed by trouncing Central Missouri and Emporia State by a combined 77 points in two exhibition wins.
I believe Arkansas is ready to open the season not only with a good chemistry in place, but also combining that urgency to erase the bitter taste of last season by putting on a show at Bud Walton Arena, Fayetteville having a buzz this weekend because the football team hosts LSU tomorrow.
Fort Wayne (the schedules still show IPFW but the school has changed to a new name) will not bring anywhere near that level of urgency. This is simply a chance for Jon Coffman to give his team a test against some tough competition, but the scoreboard outcome is not a major concern ? his aim will be to get a win in Sunday?s home opener. The Mastodons were defensively soft last year and just don?t have the depth or athleticism to keep contact for the full 40 minutes in this setting.
Pistons at Spurs
Pick: Under
Both teams have good coaches who demand tough defense. Detroit is on a 5-2 run under the total and the Under is 4-1 in Pistons last 5 games playing on 1 days rest. San Antonio PG Tony Parker (knee) might sit out for the fourth straight game. San Antonio is 28-13-1 under the total following a spread loss, plus the Under is 9-2 in the Spurs last 11 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
Pistons vs. Spurs
Play: Spurs -8
ou can bet (literally!) that coach Gregg Popovich has his Spurs ready for tonight's game. After poor defense has played a key role in 3 straight home losses for San Antonio, the team has caught an earful leading into this game with Detroit. The Pistons will be the ideal "punching bag" for the Spurs to let out their frustrations as Detroit is already 0-4 SU and ATS on the road this season. San Antonio won both games with Detroit last season by double digits but did suffer a home loss to the Pistons the prior season. That also helps ensure the proper focus from the Spurs in this one. Danny Green made his season debut for the Spurs Wednesday against the Rockets and he'll be even stronger in his 2nd game back tonight. While San Antonio is getting healthier, the Pistons are definitely still hurting with the absence of PG Reggie Jackson (18.8 ppg, 6.2 apg last season). Detroit has been held to less than 37% from the field in each of their last two games and are now facing a Spurs defense that coach Pop has fired up to the extreme to the point of "play D or ride the pine". This has the makings of a huge blowout as the Spurs have lost 3 straight home games for only the 8th time in the 20 YEARS that Popovich has been the head coach in SA.
Pistons vs. Spurs
Play: Spurs -9
I look for a pissed off Spurs team to take the floor tonight against the Pistons. San Antonio comes in off back-to-back losses and have dropped 3 of their last 4. All at home as a favorite of 4.5 or more points. This team is too talented and too well coached to continue to lose on their home floor. I believe the Pistons are the perfect opponent for them to get back on track.
Detroit has yet to win on the road this season (0-4) and haven't really been competitive in any of their 4 road games. They lost by 18 at Toronto, 8 at Brooklyn, 32 at LAC and 7 last time out at Phoenix.
San Antonio's last game was a heartbreaking 99-101 defeat to the Rockets, which sets them up in a very favorable spot. The Spurs are 10-1 ATS over the last 3 seasons following a close loss by 3 points or less and have won in this spot by an average of 15.3 ppg.
Sacramento at Portland
Play: Portland -6.5
The Portland Trail Blazers should bring their best effort to the court tonight after a blowout loss to the Los Angeles Clippers last time out. That was a tough spot for them since they were playing the second of a back-to-back after beating Phoenix 124-121 at home the night before. But now they have had a day off to regroup.
The same cannot be said for the Kings, who lost 91-101 at home to the Los Angeles Lakers last night. Now the Kings will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days. It will also be their 11th game in 17 days to open the season as the schedule makers have done them no favors whatsoever.
The Blazers have clearly had the Kings' number in recent meetings. They have won six straight in this series while winning four times by at least eight points. That includes three straight victories over 8-plus points dating back to last season. The Blazers have won six straight home meetings with the Kings as well with five of those coming by double-digits.
Sacramento is 36-68 ATS in its last 104 when playing its 5th game in 7 days. The Blazers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss. The Blazers are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.
TORONTO -105 over Philadelphia
Regulation only. This regulation wager is available at Pinnacle and 5Dimes, whereas a tie after regulation will result in a push. If you do not have that option, betting Toronto is still recommended. We play it this way because if OT and shootouts are a 50/50 proposition, then spotting juice in extra time would therefore be a losing proposition over time.
After three straight victories, Philadelphia has lost two in a row. However, all five of those games were decided by one goal with three of them going into OT. To take that even a step further, Philadelphia has played in a remarkable eight straight one-goal games in which half have gone into extra time. The Flyers have split those games by winning four and losing four. Philadelphia has proven that they can score goals. What they haven?t proven is that they can prevent them. The 51 goals that the Flyers have surrendered is the worst in the East and second worst in the league. That?s not the type of team we want to get behind on the road in an evenly priced game. Playing the 22nd ranked schedule in the league, Philadelphia is 0-4 against top-10 competition and 1-5 against top-16.
By contrast, the Maple Leafs have played the sixth ranked schedule in the league and they?re 2-4 against top-10 and 3-5 against top-16. Not great but not bad either. Furthermore, two of Toronto?s losses against top-10 occurred on the road in Chicago and Minnesota, where the Leafs held a late lead in both. Aside from that, Toronto is coming off an embarrassing loss to Los Angeles. The only way to erase that loss is to get back on the ice and work harder so this game cannot start soon enough for the Leafs. Teams? often respond best after a bad loss, as we saw with Dallas last night in Calgary. These teams can score goals but defensively, Toronto holds an edge, they?re at home and we trust Fredrick Anderson more than Steve Mason. The deciding factor, however, is that we?re thrilled to get behind a Mike Babcock coached team at home in an evenly priced match the game after they were whacked.
New Jersey +106 over BUFFALO
OT included. Buffalo favored over New Jersey is incorrect. This line has failed to take into consideration that Buffalo is the league?s most shorthanded team in terms of key personnel lost to injury. Tyler Ennis, Nicolas Deslauriers, Ryan O?Reilly and Dmitry Kulikov join Jack Eichel and Zach Bogosian on the rack. While we appreciate the effort put forth by these Sabres, effort does not win over talent when the talent shows up. Buffalo has scored six times in its last five games and that was against Ottawa twice, Boston, Toronto and Minnesota. The Sabres will now play one of the stingier defenses in the league here, not to mention one of the top five goaltenders. Oh, and the Devils rarely take a night off.
The Devils are not getting enough credit for their success so far (6-6) because they are a team that this market does not pay much attention to. Five of the Devils six losses have been by one goal so we could easily be discussing a 10-2 team as opposed to a 6-6 one. The Devils already have victories over Anaheim, Tampa Bay and Minnesota among others and their defensive metrics are once again near the top of the league. Offense has been a problem for these Devils in the past but even that is showing great signs of progress. New Jersey has scored three or more in four of its past five games. The Devils have also recorded 34, 38 and 41 shots on net in three of its past four games and two of those occurred against Carolina, a team that is near the top of the league in shots allowed per game. In a game in which the Devils have a better chance of winning than losing, we?re thrilled to be taking back anything.
COLORADO -? +125 over Winnipeg
Regulation only. This is really more of a situational play against Winnipeg than anything else. The Jets are coming off back-to-back victories at home against Dallas and on the road last night in Arizona after previously playing three straight on the road on the East Coast in Washington, Detroit and New York. Breaking it down, the Jets have played four of five on the road so this will be their fifth road game in their last six starts. It is also their fourth game in six nights, their third game in four days and tail end of back-to-backs after playing in the desert last night. It is the sixth straight game that Winnipeg has had to travel since November 1, as they flew from home to Washington, to Detroit, to New York, back home for one game, back on the road to Dallas, to Arizona and finally to the high altitude of Denver for this one. The Jets are beatable on their best day and this is very unlikely to be anything close to their best day. Throw in a slew of injuries to key personnel and the writing is on the wall for this weary group.
Colorado has zero excuses here. The Avs have been sitting idle at home for two full days after losing to the Coyotes on Tuesday. They have lost two in a row and four of five so one has to figure that they?re itching to get back on the ice for this one. While the Avalanche have flaws, they are still a much improved team under this new regime. Last year, the Avs were a analytics mess but we have seen great improvement this season, which means victories will surely follow. In fact, the Avs are ranked 15th in Corsi against during 5-on-5 play at home (last year they were ranked dead last) and they?re ranked 12th in Corsi for while being ranked 25th last year. The Avalanche are 5-7 so far but they have played the third toughest schedule in the league and they are 3-2 against top-10 competition while the Jets are 0-5 against top 10 teams. Rested, hungry, healthy, the Avs might be in one of the best spots of the year and we?re not about to miss it.
Boston College / Florida St Under 48.5
Friday night in Doak Campbell Stadium we should see a low-scoring game and defense will be the key for both teams. Last two meetings between these two teams both went UNDER the total and last year the FSU Seminoles won 14-0. Boston College has been an UNDER team as of late, cashing 4 out 6 under games and Florida St at home plays their best defense. In early October Florida St beat Wake Forest at home 17-6, and it wouldn't shock me to see the same type of game Friday night. Florida St is 1-9 O/U in their last 10 games in November and the Seminoles are 1-4 O/U in their last 5 conference games.
07:00 PM CBB [735] La Salle -2-110
09:00 PM CBB [748] UCLA -17-110
07:05 PM NBA [703] Utah Jazz -5-110
08:35 PM NBA [714] San Antonio Spurs -8.5 -110
10:05 PM NBA [716] Portland Trail Blazers -6.5 -110
07:05 PM NHL [53] TOTAL o5.5 -125 (Philadelphia Flyers vrs Toronto Maple Leafs)
08:35 PM NHL [58] Chicago Blackhawks +110
09:05 PM NHL [59] TOTAL o5.5 -110 (Dallas Stars vrs Edmonton Oilers)
1 unit bet pays 348 ....betdsi line
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Drake (-7) over South Dakota
As for this play, I know it is a bit obscure. But I think that this is a chance to take advantage of a bit of a mismatch. South Dakota has to replace all five starters from last season's 14-18 squad. This is a program that's only been in Division I for a handful of years and they don't just reload. Last year they lost to Wright State (by eight) and Northern Illinois (by seven) in their first two games, and it should be even rougher for them now with a lot of freshmen and sophomores getting their first real action on the road. Drake has nowhere to go but up. They won just seven games last year, but they have four starters back, including leading scorer Reed Timmer (16.8 PPG) and seven-footer Jacob Enevold Jensen. Drake went 4-1 last year against teams rated No. 275 or worse, and I think that they will be focused and ready to get off to a positive start.
Georgia @ Clemson
Pick: Clemson -4.5
Clemson is loaded with talent, with a slew of big men transferring in to join All-ACC forward Jaron Blossomgame (18.7 points per game, 6.7 rebounds per game). He turned down a likely NBA Draft selection to return for his senior season, and he was the #3 scorer in the ACC last year. The Tigers defeated three ranked opponents in 2015-16 (Louisville, Duke and Miami), the most victories over ranked opposition in school history. They are in revenge mode at home against a Georgia squad that embarrassed them last season. The Bulldogs have to replace their starting backcourt and the home team is 4-0 ATS when these teams collide.
Friday's free play release will be backing the Bruins of UCLA as the heavy favorite over the Tigers of Pacific from Westwood.
The seat is "hot" for UCLA coach Steve Alford, as his Bruins faltered last season at 15-17. Look for a quick turnaround this season for the Uclans, and tonight's opener against a Tigers team with not much offensive firepower is just the right opponent to visit Pauley tonight.
The Bruins did not have anybody leave for the NBA last season, so back in uniform are Lonzo Ball and T.J. Leaf. Throw in big man Thomas Walsh in the paint, and coaches son Bryce Alford sniping from behind the arc, and this one has the makings of an opening night can of whip ass being opened on Pacific and their first-year coach Damon Stoudarmire!
Stoudamire did import a pair of transfers in Miles Reynolds from Saint Louis, and TySean Powell from Duquesne, but they must sit this season.
There just isn't much on this roster to suggest the Tigers have much bite tonight, even plus this many points.
Pacific is just 2-9-1 against the spread their last dozen versus the Pac 12, and after tonight that mark drops to 2-10-1.
UCLA big.
5* UCLA
La Salle vs. Temple
Play: La Salle -1?
Huge line movement here in favor of La Salle. Temple lost 3 of their top 4 scorers from last season and the teams starting point guard is iffy for this matchup tonight. Look for La Salle to start this season off right. Led by Jordan Price who averaged 19 points, the Explorer will also be helped by 3 transfers who all had starting experience at their previous schools.
Item: So many teams, so many methods
The opening of the college hoops board can be among the most intimidating challenges for the handicapper, with so many teams to study and it all happening right in the heart of football season, and with the NBA already in full swing. So let?s set up the Golden Rule behind the early season ? It is better to know a lot about a few teams, that to know a little about many of them. That is certainly the way that I will play it.
Let?s start with a few basics that tie directly to the first wave of games - a priority is to be looking for teams that want to win now. That may sound obvious, but it isn?t. When Michigan State and Arizona tip off on ESPN from Pearl Harbor this evening we are going to see the same scowl from Tom Izzo when something goes wrong that we have all been accustomed to through the years. But the scowl will be because someone did not make a play that they should have, and not because of the scoreboard.
What is the goal for Izzo, and many coaches of elite teams? Just begin building, piece by piece, while aiming for the construction to be meaningful come tournament time. Izzo would obviously like to win the game tonight but it is not a priority ? his Spartans will also face Kentucky and Duke over the next few weeks, in addition to participating in the Battle for Atlantis Tournament, so the outcome of any single game just doesn?t mean much. It is all about building, and in this particular instance the fact that Sparty will have freshmen Joshua Langford and Miles Bridges as main cogs in the rotation creates even less need for urgency.
How does one get the best feel for who wants to win immediately, and who is merely building towards the conference schedule, or the tournament? There is no automatic formula; it really does come down to knowing each coach, and what his particular vision is. But there is something that you can use in terms of finding teams that may be more ready to get out of the gate well than others.
Item: For these teams ?traveling? is a good thing
Getting whistled for traveling on the court is bad. But having to go through a travel agent before the season begins can be a very good thing. The NCAA allows teams to take international tours to play games that do not count against the regular season schedule, and a significant bonus for teams that take such a trip is that they are also entitled to 10 days of practice before they depart. Naturally that matters in terms of rhythm and chemistry to get out of the gate well.
Here are the lined teams that fall on the list this season (apologies if I missed a few), along with the dates if you would like to go back and dig a little more deeply on how the trip went.
Akron -- Bahamas (Aug. 12-17), Appalachian State -- Slovenia, Italy (Aug. 3-15), Arkansas -- Spain (Aug. 6-16), Boise State -- Costa Rica (Aug. 11-16), Bowling Green -- Italy (Aug. 8-18), Buffalo -- Toronto, Canada (Aug. 20-26), Central Michigan -- Bahamas (Aug. 11-16), Charlotte -- Canada (Aug. 10-17), Cornell -- Spain (Aug. 9-19), Dayton -- Spain (Aug. 5-14), Eastern Michigan -- Bahamas (Aug. 23-28), FAU -- Bahamas (Aug. 13-18), George Washington -- Japan (Aug. 10-22), Georgia -- Spain (July 31-Aug. 9), Idaho -- China (June 10-25), Kansas State -- Italy, Switzerland (Aug. 8-19), Loyola-Chicago -- Spain (Aug. 12-22), Missouri -- Italy (Aug. 5-15), Missouri State -- Bahamas (Aug. 2-7), Northeastern -- Germany, Luxembourg (Aug. 23-Sept. 5), Old Dominion -- Spain (Aug. 16-25), Oregon -- Spain (Aug. 21-31)
Pacific -- Germany, Croatia (Aug. 8-18), Purdue -- Spain (Aug. 7-17), Richmond -- Ireland, Netherlands, Germany (Aug. 8-20), San Francisco -- Germany, Italy, Belgium (Aug. 4-14), Santa Clara -- Italy (Aug. 20-30), South Alabama -- Spain, Serbia (July 26-Aug. 5), South Carolina -- Costa Rica (Aug. 6-12), UC Davis -- Costa Rica (Aug. 20-27), UCLA -- Australia (Aug. 19-31), UNLV -- Bahamas (Aug. 13-20), VCU -- Spain (Aug. 12-22), Villanova -- Spain (Aug. 2-10), Virginia -- Spain (Aug. 8-18), Wake Forest -- Bahamas (Aug. 15-20), Washington -- Australia-New Zealand (July 31-Aug. 11), Washington State -- Italy (Aug. 4-14), Western Michigan -- Amsterdam, Belgium, Paris (Aug. 21-31), Wyoming -- Bahamas (Aug. 8-13), Wichita State -- Montreal (Aug. 5-11)
Item: And some teams may get a little more home court advantage tonight
As is the case across all sports, every little edge matters, even if it is just a half point or so. There is one that will be in play for some teams the next few Friday nights ? be on the lookout for teams that have a home game the night before the football team also has a home game.
Here is the gist ? many times these become alumni weekends, with folks coming to watch both games, and it not only brings a bigger Friday crowd, but it also creates an inducement to the players and coaches to show well, hoping to get those same fans to come back for more games later in the season. If you sort through those situations carefully you will find a few in which the factor does play a key role, and sometimes even creates a value point to step in. There is one such setting on tonight?s board that will have me in play,
In the Sights?
There is an opportunity to combine several prime early-season handicapping factors into one of the Friday settings, and it leads to #786 Arkansas (8:00 Eastern, note the time change), with -13.5 available across the board this morning, and value extending to -15.
This season was going to bring a sense of urgency to Mike Anderson and his team regardless of how other things laid out ? that 16-16 of last year was a major disappointment, Anderson not having the rotation for the 40 minutes of intense defensive pressure that he prefers. Now there is plenty of depth and athleticism, and those presses can be extended even further down the court when there is a rim protector like Moses Kingsley on the court. The Razorbacks got a chance to develop with their trip to Spain, and also helped get up to speed by trouncing Central Missouri and Emporia State by a combined 77 points in two exhibition wins.
I believe Arkansas is ready to open the season not only with a good chemistry in place, but also combining that urgency to erase the bitter taste of last season by putting on a show at Bud Walton Arena, Fayetteville having a buzz this weekend because the football team hosts LSU tomorrow.
Fort Wayne (the schedules still show IPFW but the school has changed to a new name) will not bring anywhere near that level of urgency. This is simply a chance for Jon Coffman to give his team a test against some tough competition, but the scoreboard outcome is not a major concern ? his aim will be to get a win in Sunday?s home opener. The Mastodons were defensively soft last year and just don?t have the depth or athleticism to keep contact for the full 40 minutes in this setting.
Pistons at Spurs
Pick: Under
Both teams have good coaches who demand tough defense. Detroit is on a 5-2 run under the total and the Under is 4-1 in Pistons last 5 games playing on 1 days rest. San Antonio PG Tony Parker (knee) might sit out for the fourth straight game. San Antonio is 28-13-1 under the total following a spread loss, plus the Under is 9-2 in the Spurs last 11 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
Pistons vs. Spurs
Play: Spurs -8
ou can bet (literally!) that coach Gregg Popovich has his Spurs ready for tonight's game. After poor defense has played a key role in 3 straight home losses for San Antonio, the team has caught an earful leading into this game with Detroit. The Pistons will be the ideal "punching bag" for the Spurs to let out their frustrations as Detroit is already 0-4 SU and ATS on the road this season. San Antonio won both games with Detroit last season by double digits but did suffer a home loss to the Pistons the prior season. That also helps ensure the proper focus from the Spurs in this one. Danny Green made his season debut for the Spurs Wednesday against the Rockets and he'll be even stronger in his 2nd game back tonight. While San Antonio is getting healthier, the Pistons are definitely still hurting with the absence of PG Reggie Jackson (18.8 ppg, 6.2 apg last season). Detroit has been held to less than 37% from the field in each of their last two games and are now facing a Spurs defense that coach Pop has fired up to the extreme to the point of "play D or ride the pine". This has the makings of a huge blowout as the Spurs have lost 3 straight home games for only the 8th time in the 20 YEARS that Popovich has been the head coach in SA.
Pistons vs. Spurs
Play: Spurs -9
I look for a pissed off Spurs team to take the floor tonight against the Pistons. San Antonio comes in off back-to-back losses and have dropped 3 of their last 4. All at home as a favorite of 4.5 or more points. This team is too talented and too well coached to continue to lose on their home floor. I believe the Pistons are the perfect opponent for them to get back on track.
Detroit has yet to win on the road this season (0-4) and haven't really been competitive in any of their 4 road games. They lost by 18 at Toronto, 8 at Brooklyn, 32 at LAC and 7 last time out at Phoenix.
San Antonio's last game was a heartbreaking 99-101 defeat to the Rockets, which sets them up in a very favorable spot. The Spurs are 10-1 ATS over the last 3 seasons following a close loss by 3 points or less and have won in this spot by an average of 15.3 ppg.
Sacramento at Portland
Play: Portland -6.5
The Portland Trail Blazers should bring their best effort to the court tonight after a blowout loss to the Los Angeles Clippers last time out. That was a tough spot for them since they were playing the second of a back-to-back after beating Phoenix 124-121 at home the night before. But now they have had a day off to regroup.
The same cannot be said for the Kings, who lost 91-101 at home to the Los Angeles Lakers last night. Now the Kings will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days. It will also be their 11th game in 17 days to open the season as the schedule makers have done them no favors whatsoever.
The Blazers have clearly had the Kings' number in recent meetings. They have won six straight in this series while winning four times by at least eight points. That includes three straight victories over 8-plus points dating back to last season. The Blazers have won six straight home meetings with the Kings as well with five of those coming by double-digits.
Sacramento is 36-68 ATS in its last 104 when playing its 5th game in 7 days. The Blazers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss. The Blazers are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.
TORONTO -105 over Philadelphia
Regulation only. This regulation wager is available at Pinnacle and 5Dimes, whereas a tie after regulation will result in a push. If you do not have that option, betting Toronto is still recommended. We play it this way because if OT and shootouts are a 50/50 proposition, then spotting juice in extra time would therefore be a losing proposition over time.
After three straight victories, Philadelphia has lost two in a row. However, all five of those games were decided by one goal with three of them going into OT. To take that even a step further, Philadelphia has played in a remarkable eight straight one-goal games in which half have gone into extra time. The Flyers have split those games by winning four and losing four. Philadelphia has proven that they can score goals. What they haven?t proven is that they can prevent them. The 51 goals that the Flyers have surrendered is the worst in the East and second worst in the league. That?s not the type of team we want to get behind on the road in an evenly priced game. Playing the 22nd ranked schedule in the league, Philadelphia is 0-4 against top-10 competition and 1-5 against top-16.
By contrast, the Maple Leafs have played the sixth ranked schedule in the league and they?re 2-4 against top-10 and 3-5 against top-16. Not great but not bad either. Furthermore, two of Toronto?s losses against top-10 occurred on the road in Chicago and Minnesota, where the Leafs held a late lead in both. Aside from that, Toronto is coming off an embarrassing loss to Los Angeles. The only way to erase that loss is to get back on the ice and work harder so this game cannot start soon enough for the Leafs. Teams? often respond best after a bad loss, as we saw with Dallas last night in Calgary. These teams can score goals but defensively, Toronto holds an edge, they?re at home and we trust Fredrick Anderson more than Steve Mason. The deciding factor, however, is that we?re thrilled to get behind a Mike Babcock coached team at home in an evenly priced match the game after they were whacked.
New Jersey +106 over BUFFALO
OT included. Buffalo favored over New Jersey is incorrect. This line has failed to take into consideration that Buffalo is the league?s most shorthanded team in terms of key personnel lost to injury. Tyler Ennis, Nicolas Deslauriers, Ryan O?Reilly and Dmitry Kulikov join Jack Eichel and Zach Bogosian on the rack. While we appreciate the effort put forth by these Sabres, effort does not win over talent when the talent shows up. Buffalo has scored six times in its last five games and that was against Ottawa twice, Boston, Toronto and Minnesota. The Sabres will now play one of the stingier defenses in the league here, not to mention one of the top five goaltenders. Oh, and the Devils rarely take a night off.
The Devils are not getting enough credit for their success so far (6-6) because they are a team that this market does not pay much attention to. Five of the Devils six losses have been by one goal so we could easily be discussing a 10-2 team as opposed to a 6-6 one. The Devils already have victories over Anaheim, Tampa Bay and Minnesota among others and their defensive metrics are once again near the top of the league. Offense has been a problem for these Devils in the past but even that is showing great signs of progress. New Jersey has scored three or more in four of its past five games. The Devils have also recorded 34, 38 and 41 shots on net in three of its past four games and two of those occurred against Carolina, a team that is near the top of the league in shots allowed per game. In a game in which the Devils have a better chance of winning than losing, we?re thrilled to be taking back anything.
COLORADO -? +125 over Winnipeg
Regulation only. This is really more of a situational play against Winnipeg than anything else. The Jets are coming off back-to-back victories at home against Dallas and on the road last night in Arizona after previously playing three straight on the road on the East Coast in Washington, Detroit and New York. Breaking it down, the Jets have played four of five on the road so this will be their fifth road game in their last six starts. It is also their fourth game in six nights, their third game in four days and tail end of back-to-backs after playing in the desert last night. It is the sixth straight game that Winnipeg has had to travel since November 1, as they flew from home to Washington, to Detroit, to New York, back home for one game, back on the road to Dallas, to Arizona and finally to the high altitude of Denver for this one. The Jets are beatable on their best day and this is very unlikely to be anything close to their best day. Throw in a slew of injuries to key personnel and the writing is on the wall for this weary group.
Colorado has zero excuses here. The Avs have been sitting idle at home for two full days after losing to the Coyotes on Tuesday. They have lost two in a row and four of five so one has to figure that they?re itching to get back on the ice for this one. While the Avalanche have flaws, they are still a much improved team under this new regime. Last year, the Avs were a analytics mess but we have seen great improvement this season, which means victories will surely follow. In fact, the Avs are ranked 15th in Corsi against during 5-on-5 play at home (last year they were ranked dead last) and they?re ranked 12th in Corsi for while being ranked 25th last year. The Avalanche are 5-7 so far but they have played the third toughest schedule in the league and they are 3-2 against top-10 competition while the Jets are 0-5 against top 10 teams. Rested, hungry, healthy, the Avs might be in one of the best spots of the year and we?re not about to miss it.
Boston College / Florida St Under 48.5
Friday night in Doak Campbell Stadium we should see a low-scoring game and defense will be the key for both teams. Last two meetings between these two teams both went UNDER the total and last year the FSU Seminoles won 14-0. Boston College has been an UNDER team as of late, cashing 4 out 6 under games and Florida St at home plays their best defense. In early October Florida St beat Wake Forest at home 17-6, and it wouldn't shock me to see the same type of game Friday night. Florida St is 1-9 O/U in their last 10 games in November and the Seminoles are 1-4 O/U in their last 5 conference games.
