07:05 PM MLB [904] Pittsburgh Pirates -175 ( J Guerra - R /Taillon)
10:10 PM MLB [914] Los Angeles Dodgers -240 ( C Richard - L / J Urias)
08:15 PM MLB [924] Kansas City Royals -133 ( A Sanchez - R / D Duffy)
10:05 PM MLB [925] Boston Red Sox -155 ( D Price - L / A Triggs - R )
1 unit bet pays 5.42 ....betdsi line
07:00 PM CFB [146] TOTAL u54-110 (BALL STATE vrs GEORGIA STATE)
07:10 PM MLB [909] Saint Louis Cardinals -126 ( A Reyes - R / A Desclafani - R )
08:40 PM MLB [911] Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 +130 ( R Ray - L / J De La Rosa - L )
10:05 PM MLB [926] TOTAL u7.5 -115 (Boston Red Sox vrs Oakland Athletics) (Price/Triggs)
10:10 PM MLB [928] Seattle Mariners -116 ( B Oberholtzer - L / A Miranda - L )
07:10 PM MLB [930] TOTAL u8-120 (Miami Marlins vrs Cleveland Indians) (Cashner/Carrasco)
1 unit bet pays 49 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 14-147, -35.49 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23rd....yet another long dry spell, hit four teamer on Aug 17...hit nice daytime five teamer on Aug 18....won small daytime three teamer on Aug 24..
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
:0074
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Carlos Carrasco certainly has the skills and stuff to be a permanent fixture in the elite tier. The problem is true aces are more consistent and not as prone to the occasional blow-up as Carrasco seems to run into. Part of the Cleveland Indians right-hander's woes stem from an unusually high home run rate, fueled by a bloated home run per fly ball rate. If the cause of this season's home run spike comes to light and it's something not likely to repeat, Carrasco has the goods to be a top-ten starting pitcher next season. But that's a story for next spring. Of immediate concern is an interleague date with the Miami Marlins in Progressive Field. The Fish whiff at a below average rate but they're also near the bottom of the league in homers off righties. This reduced Carrasco's risk,
With Mike Leake out with the Shingles, Alex Reyes was called upon to get his first start in the majors as they hosted the Athletics and it went pretty well to the tune of 4.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks. The command was sometimes completely gone - two four pitch walks - but his stuff is so lively (especially that Changeup my gawd) that he was able to get a ton of outs without hitting his spots directly. It looks like Leake should miss another start - I actually have had Shingles myself and know first hand that this doesn't disappear in a day or two, most likely a week or so - and I think you roll with Reyes as long as he gets starts. I do question his long term upside though, as the only step left is to harness consistent command of all his pitches. We saw flashes of it yesterday, but those lost at-bats can really do harm that will prevent him from rising the ranks once he's firmly in the rotation.
Cobb is set to take a big league mound for the first time since 2014 after Tommy John surgery. The 28-year-old struggled in eight rehab starts, going 0-3 (4 starts) with a 6.65 ERA and a 1.80 WHIP. Rays manager Kevin Cash remains encouraged, however.
New York is 12-5 in Syndergaard?s last 17 starts vs. a team with a winning record
Washington at New York
Play: Washington +154
The Washington Nationals are coming off a three-game sweep at Philadelphia and they're a solid 40-29 on the road this season. They enter Friday's meeting with the New York Mets at Citi Field as a sizable underdog, and this looks like a great price on the Nats.
A.J. Cole (0-1, 4.97 ERA) takes the ball for the visitors. While inexperienced, I think the 24 year old will give the Nats a chance to win this game and he'll be backed up by the second best bullpen in baseball (3.33 ERA) which will come in well rested as the team got Thursday off. It will also help that the Mets are far from an offensive juggernaut with a miserable .243 batting average, the third worst mark in the major leagues.
The Mets turn to Noah Syndergaard (12-7, 2.55 ERA) who has won three straight decisions. He's just 1-2 with a 4.91 ERA in three meetings with the Nats this season though, and he's struggled big time with Anthony Rendon who is 5-for-13 in previous meetings. We can also note that Nationals are 6-0 in their last six games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15 so they're prone to raise their game when facing an ace.
Nationals are 38-13 in the last 51 meetings in New York and they'll face a Mets team that lost 6-4 to the Marlins last night.
N.Y. Yankees @ BALTIMORE
N.Y. Yankees +120 over BALTIMORE
Don?t look now but the Yankees are just 2? games back of the Orioles and Tigers for the final Wild Card spot. The Designated Hitters (the Orioles) are not in good form with five losses in their past seven games. When Baltimore faces a pitcher/catcher combo that works them over, it usually turns into a long night. Baltimore?s group of free swinging all or nothing lineup is very beatable and that figures to bode well for Chad Green.
Green?s fastball averages 94 MPH with sink and run. He has an elite 13% swing and miss rate to go along with an elite K-rate of 10 K?s/9 over his 11 appearances (seven starts). Since being inserted into the rotation in early August, Green?s 3.64/3/3.22 ERA/xERA split is a top-3 in the AL. Green commands the plate with an easily locatable fastball. He knows how to pitch and attack hitters with all of his offerings. His slider, which features splitter-like action, and change-up are inducing plenty of swing and misses too.
Dylan Bundy has thrown three non-quality starts in a row (we call them disasters) and seen his average fastball velocity drop over one mph since he joined the Orioles rotation in mid-July. It?s no surprise that Bundy is running on fumes given an injury history that has limited his workload over recent seasons. It?s his second straight start against a Yankees offense that trailed only the Red Sox in scoring during the month of August. Bundy?s fly-ball lean profile of 35%/45% (groundball/fly-ball) helps to set his xERA at 4.44. Bundy?s WHIP of 1.34 is also above out threshold of 1.30 of acceptability. Camden Yards has been kind to Bundy thus far but his metrics insist that this is not a suitable park for his style. In the end, when favored, the Designated Hitters are high on our fade list for the final month of the season because this is the time of year in which pitching usually defeats hitting.
St. Louis Cardinals -114
This is a pretty good price to get the St. Louis Cardinals in Game 1 of this series with the Cincinnati Reds Friday night. The Cardinals have a lot to play for right now as they are trying to hold on to the 2nd wild card spot in the National League.
The same cannot be said for the Cincinnati Reds, who are just 55-77 on the year and just looking to get to the finish line. That has been evident with their play of late as they have lost four straight while going 2-8 in their last 10 games overall.
Alex Reyes held his own in his only start this season, giving up just one earned run and two hits over 4 2/3 innings against the Oakland A's on August 27. He'll be opposed by Anthony Desclafini, who is primed for a letdown after pitching a complete game shutout in his last start against the Diamondbacks.
The Cardinals are 8-2 in their last 10 road games. St. Louis is 5-1 in its last six games following a loss. The Reds are 30-63 in their last 93 vs. a team with a winning record. St. Louis is 11-5 in the last 16 meetings.
Arizona @ COLORADO
Arizona -1? +130 over COLORADO
This is such a good matchup for the Diamondbacks. First, there is Robby Ray, who has put up the best skills of any starter in MLB since the All-Star break with 12.5 K?s/9, 2.1 BB?s/9 and 50% grounders. While Ray still needs to attack hitters more early in counts (56% first-pitch strike rate) his ball% has dropped from 37% to 33%, and his swing and miss rate has jumped from 10.5% to 12.9%. Furthermore, Ray is one of very few pitchers in the history of Coors that seems unfazed by the park factors. Ray has an incredible 2.76 ERA over three career starts here and he?s never been better than he is right now. It gets even better.
Southpaw Jorge de la Rosa has a 10%/45% dominant start/disaster start split this season that is reflected in his uninspiring 5.09 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. Dude has walked 51 batters in 115 innings for a troubling BB?s/9 rate of 4.0. de la Rosa will throw the occasional gem but his velocity drop and age assures us of some abbreviated starts too. It may also surprise you to learn that the Diamondbacks lead MLB in OPS vs. LHP. Pitching mismatches aren?t everything but in this park for this one game, this pitching mismatch in the Snakes? favor is one we are not going to overlook because it has a lot more moving parts than just statistics. Robby Ray has legit ace potential and is pitching like it while Jorge de la Rosa has one foot in the gutter.
The Rangers are 12-6 in A.J. Griffin last 18 starts.
Danny Duffy - 5.0 IP, 7 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks. The Red Sox ain't nothing to...um...mess with, but the good news is that his velocity was a little above 96 mph. That makes me confident he'll rebound next time out against Detroit. Yes, Detroit.
Danny Duffy starts - team is 11-1 in his last 12 starts (he was chalk greater than -140 just 3 times during this run)...Royals are 10-1 in his home starts
Under is 13-2 in Oakland?s last fifteen games.
The A?s were absolutely destroyed in Boston from May 9-11, losing 14-7, 13-5 and 11-1. So the Red Sox are the obvious choice here, but I don?t think we will be seeing double-digit runs at pitcher-friendly Oakland. The Sox are 5-0 in their past five after an off day. The A?s are 5-12 in their past 17 games.
In the Sights?
As noted here so often, Betting Markets both give to, and take away from, our wishes. Because I was up logging the first College Football box scores of the season I did take a quick peek at the MLB overnights, something I usually do not do because I don?t want to be overly emphasized by those numbers, and as would be the case if I did it more often there was disappointment ? an opener of Cleveland -185 and 8.5 was going to set up an ideal spot to back Carlos Carrasco and a fresh Allen/Miller via a Miami Team Total Under. But as -185 became -225, and the Total dropped to 8 Under -115, that option disappeared. The flip side is that one is now being created, and with 8?s beginning to appear in Oakland tonight, it will be #925 Red Sox/A?s Under (10:05 Eastern). Consider the ticket good at 8-120, or at 7.5 Even money or better.
There have been discussions here this season about both the Red Sox and Yankees having ?warning track power? on the road, and it has indeed been pronounced for the Boston offense, an .867 OPS at Fenway falling off to .760 everywhere else. West Coast ballparks at night are where fly balls go to die, and while Boston scoring 38 runs in 11 games of the first western swing may not look completely awful, track those starters ? Weaver, Lincecum, Santiago, Skaggs, Paxton, LeBlanc, Iwakuma, Miranda, Kazmir, Stripling and McCarthy. Not an overly talented group. In terms of Oakland, the last four trips have seen the Red Sox produce just 33 runs across 13 games, and it will not be easy on the first look against Andrew Triggs, who checks in with a 3.24 FIP, and 3.34 from both xFIP and SIERA, because he has done a little of everything right ? strikeouts, control and ground balls.
Meanwhile some folks are still calling David Price a disappointment for the Red Sox, but in going 13-8/3.97 he has basically been the same pitcher as the one that turned in an 18-5/2.45 line in 2015 ?
2015 2016
K/9 9.2 9.1
BB/9 1.9 2.0
GB% 40.4 44.1
SWS% 11.9 12.1
The gap has been about BABIP and HR/FB, and it has also been mostly about Fenway, the park rating #4 for highest BABIP across MLB this season. With pennant pressure on Price has picked his game up to a 4-0/1.59 tune over his last four starts, and the friendly confines of Oakland at night should call for that form to continue.
Ball St vs. Georgia St
Play: Under 52?
The Georgia State Panthers offense was all about quarterback Nick Arbuckle the last couple years. Arbuckle threw for more than 7,600 yards in the past two years. This Georgia State team went from 0-12 in 2013 to 6-7 and a bowl berth last year. Arbuckle had a lot to do with that, and he will be missed.
Georgia State has no one experienced at quarterback ready to step in, and they also have almost no running game. The Panthers offense is going to have to find its way this year, and I think that will take some time. While Georgia State was 47th in tempo last year, I expect a slower pace to start the year with a new signal caller.
Georgia State's defense was much improved last year, and that was the other big reason for their overall improvement as a team. The Panthers have a defensive-minded coach in Trent Miles. Georgia State allowed 43.4 points per game two years and only 28.3 per game last year. This defense returns nine guys and is a senior-laden group. Look for further improvement here.
Ball State returned 10 guys on offense last year and still only managed 23.3 points per game. These two teams played last year at Ball State and the Cardinals only managed 19 points in a loss. Ball State returns 6 guys on offense last year, and like Georgia State I think they need to find an identity. It should take some time.
Defensively, Ball State returns nine starters from last year and star Darnell Smith who missed all of last year with an injury is back as well.
I see a sloppy low scoring game. Take the under.
Kansas State (+15.5) over Stanford
If I have said it once I have said it a thousand times: Bill Snyder is a national treasure! He is one of the greatest coaches in college football history. And the hallmark of Snyder teams is his ability to cash as an underdog. Snyder has gone 20-6 ATS the last 26 times he has been catching points, and he has 10 outright upsets in those games. I don't think the Wildcats have the goods to steal a win from Stanford, but I will be really surprised if this one is a blowout. Stanford is replacing a four-year starter at quarterback in Kevin Hogan and installing a redshirt junior at QB (Ryan Burns) that has exactly one college pass attempt on his resume. In fact, David Shaw has said that he will play both of his quarterbacks (Keller Chryst is the other) in this game, which could really hurt Stanford's offensive flow. Frankly, I think that the Cardinal are way overrated at No. 8 in the country right now. They are a big, powerful team. But they play the same smash-mouth style that K-State favors, and I don't see the Wildcats getting plowed over. Kansas State took on four Top 10 teams last year and played three of them (Oklahoma State, TCU and Baylor) within a touchdown apiece (3-0 ATS). Stanford has been one of the best bets in college football the last six years, going 38-18 ATS at home and 49-24 ATS in their last 73 games overall. But that's made them a bit overvalued. I think Stanford will do enough to win here. But I see a vintage Snyder we-can't-seem-to-shake-these-guys game and a 33-24 win for the home team - but cover for us.
Kansas State (+15.5) over Stanford
If I have said it once I have said it a thousand times: Bill Snyder is a national treasure! He is one of the greatest coaches in college football history. And the hallmark of Snyder teams is his ability to cash as an underdog. Snyder has gone 20-6 ATS the last 26 times he has been catching points, and he has 10 outright upsets in those games. I don't think the Wildcats have the goods to steal a win from Stanford, but I will be really surprised if this one is a blowout. Stanford is replacing a four-year starter at quarterback in Kevin Hogan and installing a redshirt junior at QB (Ryan Burns) that has exactly one college pass attempt on his resume. In fact, David Shaw has said that he will play both of his quarterbacks (Keller Chryst is the other) in this game, which could really hurt Stanford's offensive flow. Frankly, I think that the Cardinal are way overrated at No. 8 in the country right now. They are a big, powerful team. But they play the same smash-mouth style that K-State favors, and I don't see the Wildcats getting plowed over. Kansas State took on four Top 10 teams last year and played three of them (Oklahoma State, TCU and Baylor) within a touchdown apiece (3-0 ATS). Stanford has been one of the best bets in college football the last six years, going 38-18 ATS at home and 49-24 ATS in their last 73 games overall. But that's made them a bit overvalued. I think Stanford will do enough to win here. But I see a vintage Snyder we-can't-seem-to-shake-these-guys game and a 33-24 win for the home team - but cover for us.
Coaches Love Shutouts (go ahead and laminate it now)?If you ignored NFL Pre-Season Week #4 completely it might make you a better person (and if you had Seattle/Oakland Under, I feel your pain)?The Price is Right on the mound, and at the Betting Windows, in Oakland tonight?
Thursday brought the kind of optimism that comes with the opening of most sports, but College Football in particular, along with the cold shiver of pessimism that comes when it is time to chart the NFL preseason Week #4 results. Of course one of the antidotes for that can be to not chart those results at all, which I will get to in a moment. But first the NCAA comes front and center.
Item: Coaches Love Shutouts (a primary for NCAA Halftime betting)
It didn?t take long for one of the prime mantras of the College Football game-day threads to come into play this season ? when Louisville/Charlotte went to halftime, the Cardinals in command 56-0, a reader was quick to bring up whether it was time to get in play with a prized notion ? ?Coaches Love Shutouts?.
In this case the answer was no, a combination of Bobby Petrino not being a defense-first guy, and also the fact that the oddsmakers had set the Second Half Total in that one rather short, a 20.5 in the key precincts that got played up to 21. Not necessarily what we would have wished to so, and certainly not a "go", as noted in the thread.
As the season begins it is time to go to the fundamentals of the concept itself, because it is an important one, and it also allows for the best way to start another round of autumn Saturday?s, some reminiscences of Old Joe (there will be more to come about him next week, with watching the South Carolina offense struggle last night also leading to some memories). Coaches do indeed love shutouts, especially as they become increasingly rare in the modern age. Naturally players love them - not just the defense, but the offense as well, as a sense of ?team? gets built into the scoreboard in the second half. The obvious role of the defense is to not allow any points, but for the coaching staff and the offense it also means not doing anything to impair the defense, turning the focus to clock management and avoiding turnovers.
What this combines to produce are settings in which Second Half Under tickets come to the forefront, and it is amazing over time how much that ?Power of Zero? is in play. The difference in attitude between a team up 27-0, vs. 27-3, at the half is mot pronounced, and the savvy handicapper should be on the lookout to take advantage. It isn?t just about cashing the tickets, but also understanding the concept ? there are many times that you would switch the television away from a game that is 42-0 in the fourth quarter, especially on these modern Saturdays in which just about every lined game is available for viewing. But take the time to stay with a few of them, and watch the energy that remains on the sidelines of the team with the lead as long as there is still a shutout on the board.
Since I am going to cause unintended damage to some of you by bringing up last night?s Seattle/Oakland ending in a minute, I can also share one of my Halftime ?Hall of Fame? Bad Beats, because it came out of this concept.
Mark Dantonio and Michigan State fell almost perfectly into the scenario in a game at Central Michigan in September of 2012, building a 24-0 halftime lead against an opponent they could command, and with no second half focus on anything other than grinding, since the Spartans hosted Notre Dame the following week. As such, plenty of Under 23 went into pocket. Ultimately the ticket was shredded, and in this instance it was about Dantonio wanting the shutout so much that a strategy back-fired.
You will note that the only points in Central Michigan?s 41-7 defeat came on a 55-yard interception return with 1:39 remaining in the game, a harrowing way for a bet to lose. Why on earth did Dantonio have Connor Cook (then the back-up QB) throwing the ball that late? Because it was a third down play, and the way the clock was set, a first down would have meant a couple of kneel downs to close it out. Dantonio had his team going to clinch the shutout at that moment by keeping the ball, rather than punting away for a final CMU drive. That one stung.
The issue going forward is that the markets are catching on to the phenomenon, which is why I am not letting a secret out by detailing it here ? last night?s Louisville game was a prime example, but there is no better place to look than Nick Saban.
Saban?s teams annually put together some of the best defensive statistics in all of college football, and that is indeed a tribute to talent and coaching. But often unnoticed in that is also how much is game management, which will be a future topic here as we discuss the impact of pace on various statistical metrics. Absolutely no one in the nation shuts a game down in the fourth quarter better with a big lead than Saban, and for several years Old Joe and I had a major run with Second Half Under tickets when the Crimson Tide had a game in hand, regardless of whether it was a shutout or not (they do have 15 of those under Saban). Alas that run suffered the fate of many edges over time ? it gets to be known; too many in the marketplace line up for it; and the oddsmakers react accordingly.
Will ?Coaches Love Shutouts? work again in 2016? I would certainly hope so, leaving that plaque on the desk rather than having to relegate it to the legacy drawer. But even if the margins get narrower in the betting markets, understanding the concept will help you greatly in your weekly post-mortem charting of the results.
Item: If you choose to skip NFL Pre-Season Week #4 completely you are not wrong
You will note that Thursday?s NFL close-out to the Pre-Season did not merit any feature space in PB this week, and perhaps it never will. There is such a lack of integrity in the outcomes, and even the ?good? information was not of much use this week.
--CLEVELAND was a topic of discussions in the threads when Hue Jackson announced that his starters were going to see some action, which drove the line from -3 to -6. Those that laid -3 made a sound move, since it did allow some buyback at kickoff. But the savvy positioning was to have more on the -3 than the +6, and the savvy stake was a financial loser. The Browns did lead 7-3 in the second quarter; after the starters left it turned into a 21-7 Bears victory.
--NEW ENGLAND drew money when it was made known that Tom Brady would play, and Brady indeed did, going the entire first half. But the Patriots only scored six points under his direction. Someone that played NE for the First Half only would have cashed a ticket if they got there in time (it became a painted -3, a rare instance in which the First Half line was higher than the Full Game), but the full 60 minutes backers lost.
--NEW ORLEANS also drew money against Baltimore when Sean Payton decided to play Drew Brees and most of the starters for a while, and the Saints did manage of couple of field goals in the first quarter to go up 6-0. But by halftime they trailed 16-6, and lost the game 23-14.
And so much for having good info. But how about if you had Seattle/Oakland Under, a game in which neither side showed any interest at all, outside of Russell Wilson surprisingly playing the first series for the Seahawks. It was 2-0 Raiders at halftime and 5-3 Raiders after three quarters, and if you went to bed believing you had a winner it was the proper thing to do ? sleep is more important than watching the clock tick in the 4th quarter of a dead pre-season affair. The final of 23-21 Seattle would have shocked you this morning, of course, with both interception returns and kickoff returns for TDs in the final stanza, and three TDs being scored over the final 2:17.
Should you decide to simply ignore the Week #4 board in the future, and put your focus on getting up to speed on the NCAA teams, it may be time better served.
10:10 PM MLB [914] Los Angeles Dodgers -240 ( C Richard - L / J Urias)
08:15 PM MLB [924] Kansas City Royals -133 ( A Sanchez - R / D Duffy)
10:05 PM MLB [925] Boston Red Sox -155 ( D Price - L / A Triggs - R )
1 unit bet pays 5.42 ....betdsi line
07:00 PM CFB [146] TOTAL u54-110 (BALL STATE vrs GEORGIA STATE)
07:10 PM MLB [909] Saint Louis Cardinals -126 ( A Reyes - R / A Desclafani - R )
08:40 PM MLB [911] Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 +130 ( R Ray - L / J De La Rosa - L )
10:05 PM MLB [926] TOTAL u7.5 -115 (Boston Red Sox vrs Oakland Athletics) (Price/Triggs)
10:10 PM MLB [928] Seattle Mariners -116 ( B Oberholtzer - L / A Miranda - L )
07:10 PM MLB [930] TOTAL u8-120 (Miami Marlins vrs Cleveland Indians) (Cashner/Carrasco)
1 unit bet pays 49 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 14-147, -35.49 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23rd....yet another long dry spell, hit four teamer on Aug 17...hit nice daytime five teamer on Aug 18....won small daytime three teamer on Aug 24..
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Carlos Carrasco certainly has the skills and stuff to be a permanent fixture in the elite tier. The problem is true aces are more consistent and not as prone to the occasional blow-up as Carrasco seems to run into. Part of the Cleveland Indians right-hander's woes stem from an unusually high home run rate, fueled by a bloated home run per fly ball rate. If the cause of this season's home run spike comes to light and it's something not likely to repeat, Carrasco has the goods to be a top-ten starting pitcher next season. But that's a story for next spring. Of immediate concern is an interleague date with the Miami Marlins in Progressive Field. The Fish whiff at a below average rate but they're also near the bottom of the league in homers off righties. This reduced Carrasco's risk,
With Mike Leake out with the Shingles, Alex Reyes was called upon to get his first start in the majors as they hosted the Athletics and it went pretty well to the tune of 4.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks. The command was sometimes completely gone - two four pitch walks - but his stuff is so lively (especially that Changeup my gawd) that he was able to get a ton of outs without hitting his spots directly. It looks like Leake should miss another start - I actually have had Shingles myself and know first hand that this doesn't disappear in a day or two, most likely a week or so - and I think you roll with Reyes as long as he gets starts. I do question his long term upside though, as the only step left is to harness consistent command of all his pitches. We saw flashes of it yesterday, but those lost at-bats can really do harm that will prevent him from rising the ranks once he's firmly in the rotation.
Cobb is set to take a big league mound for the first time since 2014 after Tommy John surgery. The 28-year-old struggled in eight rehab starts, going 0-3 (4 starts) with a 6.65 ERA and a 1.80 WHIP. Rays manager Kevin Cash remains encouraged, however.
New York is 12-5 in Syndergaard?s last 17 starts vs. a team with a winning record
Washington at New York
Play: Washington +154
The Washington Nationals are coming off a three-game sweep at Philadelphia and they're a solid 40-29 on the road this season. They enter Friday's meeting with the New York Mets at Citi Field as a sizable underdog, and this looks like a great price on the Nats.
A.J. Cole (0-1, 4.97 ERA) takes the ball for the visitors. While inexperienced, I think the 24 year old will give the Nats a chance to win this game and he'll be backed up by the second best bullpen in baseball (3.33 ERA) which will come in well rested as the team got Thursday off. It will also help that the Mets are far from an offensive juggernaut with a miserable .243 batting average, the third worst mark in the major leagues.
The Mets turn to Noah Syndergaard (12-7, 2.55 ERA) who has won three straight decisions. He's just 1-2 with a 4.91 ERA in three meetings with the Nats this season though, and he's struggled big time with Anthony Rendon who is 5-for-13 in previous meetings. We can also note that Nationals are 6-0 in their last six games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15 so they're prone to raise their game when facing an ace.
Nationals are 38-13 in the last 51 meetings in New York and they'll face a Mets team that lost 6-4 to the Marlins last night.
N.Y. Yankees @ BALTIMORE
N.Y. Yankees +120 over BALTIMORE
Don?t look now but the Yankees are just 2? games back of the Orioles and Tigers for the final Wild Card spot. The Designated Hitters (the Orioles) are not in good form with five losses in their past seven games. When Baltimore faces a pitcher/catcher combo that works them over, it usually turns into a long night. Baltimore?s group of free swinging all or nothing lineup is very beatable and that figures to bode well for Chad Green.
Green?s fastball averages 94 MPH with sink and run. He has an elite 13% swing and miss rate to go along with an elite K-rate of 10 K?s/9 over his 11 appearances (seven starts). Since being inserted into the rotation in early August, Green?s 3.64/3/3.22 ERA/xERA split is a top-3 in the AL. Green commands the plate with an easily locatable fastball. He knows how to pitch and attack hitters with all of his offerings. His slider, which features splitter-like action, and change-up are inducing plenty of swing and misses too.
Dylan Bundy has thrown three non-quality starts in a row (we call them disasters) and seen his average fastball velocity drop over one mph since he joined the Orioles rotation in mid-July. It?s no surprise that Bundy is running on fumes given an injury history that has limited his workload over recent seasons. It?s his second straight start against a Yankees offense that trailed only the Red Sox in scoring during the month of August. Bundy?s fly-ball lean profile of 35%/45% (groundball/fly-ball) helps to set his xERA at 4.44. Bundy?s WHIP of 1.34 is also above out threshold of 1.30 of acceptability. Camden Yards has been kind to Bundy thus far but his metrics insist that this is not a suitable park for his style. In the end, when favored, the Designated Hitters are high on our fade list for the final month of the season because this is the time of year in which pitching usually defeats hitting.
St. Louis Cardinals -114
This is a pretty good price to get the St. Louis Cardinals in Game 1 of this series with the Cincinnati Reds Friday night. The Cardinals have a lot to play for right now as they are trying to hold on to the 2nd wild card spot in the National League.
The same cannot be said for the Cincinnati Reds, who are just 55-77 on the year and just looking to get to the finish line. That has been evident with their play of late as they have lost four straight while going 2-8 in their last 10 games overall.
Alex Reyes held his own in his only start this season, giving up just one earned run and two hits over 4 2/3 innings against the Oakland A's on August 27. He'll be opposed by Anthony Desclafini, who is primed for a letdown after pitching a complete game shutout in his last start against the Diamondbacks.
The Cardinals are 8-2 in their last 10 road games. St. Louis is 5-1 in its last six games following a loss. The Reds are 30-63 in their last 93 vs. a team with a winning record. St. Louis is 11-5 in the last 16 meetings.
Arizona @ COLORADO
Arizona -1? +130 over COLORADO
This is such a good matchup for the Diamondbacks. First, there is Robby Ray, who has put up the best skills of any starter in MLB since the All-Star break with 12.5 K?s/9, 2.1 BB?s/9 and 50% grounders. While Ray still needs to attack hitters more early in counts (56% first-pitch strike rate) his ball% has dropped from 37% to 33%, and his swing and miss rate has jumped from 10.5% to 12.9%. Furthermore, Ray is one of very few pitchers in the history of Coors that seems unfazed by the park factors. Ray has an incredible 2.76 ERA over three career starts here and he?s never been better than he is right now. It gets even better.
Southpaw Jorge de la Rosa has a 10%/45% dominant start/disaster start split this season that is reflected in his uninspiring 5.09 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. Dude has walked 51 batters in 115 innings for a troubling BB?s/9 rate of 4.0. de la Rosa will throw the occasional gem but his velocity drop and age assures us of some abbreviated starts too. It may also surprise you to learn that the Diamondbacks lead MLB in OPS vs. LHP. Pitching mismatches aren?t everything but in this park for this one game, this pitching mismatch in the Snakes? favor is one we are not going to overlook because it has a lot more moving parts than just statistics. Robby Ray has legit ace potential and is pitching like it while Jorge de la Rosa has one foot in the gutter.
The Rangers are 12-6 in A.J. Griffin last 18 starts.
Danny Duffy - 5.0 IP, 7 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks. The Red Sox ain't nothing to...um...mess with, but the good news is that his velocity was a little above 96 mph. That makes me confident he'll rebound next time out against Detroit. Yes, Detroit.
Danny Duffy starts - team is 11-1 in his last 12 starts (he was chalk greater than -140 just 3 times during this run)...Royals are 10-1 in his home starts
Under is 13-2 in Oakland?s last fifteen games.
The A?s were absolutely destroyed in Boston from May 9-11, losing 14-7, 13-5 and 11-1. So the Red Sox are the obvious choice here, but I don?t think we will be seeing double-digit runs at pitcher-friendly Oakland. The Sox are 5-0 in their past five after an off day. The A?s are 5-12 in their past 17 games.
In the Sights?
As noted here so often, Betting Markets both give to, and take away from, our wishes. Because I was up logging the first College Football box scores of the season I did take a quick peek at the MLB overnights, something I usually do not do because I don?t want to be overly emphasized by those numbers, and as would be the case if I did it more often there was disappointment ? an opener of Cleveland -185 and 8.5 was going to set up an ideal spot to back Carlos Carrasco and a fresh Allen/Miller via a Miami Team Total Under. But as -185 became -225, and the Total dropped to 8 Under -115, that option disappeared. The flip side is that one is now being created, and with 8?s beginning to appear in Oakland tonight, it will be #925 Red Sox/A?s Under (10:05 Eastern). Consider the ticket good at 8-120, or at 7.5 Even money or better.
There have been discussions here this season about both the Red Sox and Yankees having ?warning track power? on the road, and it has indeed been pronounced for the Boston offense, an .867 OPS at Fenway falling off to .760 everywhere else. West Coast ballparks at night are where fly balls go to die, and while Boston scoring 38 runs in 11 games of the first western swing may not look completely awful, track those starters ? Weaver, Lincecum, Santiago, Skaggs, Paxton, LeBlanc, Iwakuma, Miranda, Kazmir, Stripling and McCarthy. Not an overly talented group. In terms of Oakland, the last four trips have seen the Red Sox produce just 33 runs across 13 games, and it will not be easy on the first look against Andrew Triggs, who checks in with a 3.24 FIP, and 3.34 from both xFIP and SIERA, because he has done a little of everything right ? strikeouts, control and ground balls.
Meanwhile some folks are still calling David Price a disappointment for the Red Sox, but in going 13-8/3.97 he has basically been the same pitcher as the one that turned in an 18-5/2.45 line in 2015 ?
2015 2016
K/9 9.2 9.1
BB/9 1.9 2.0
GB% 40.4 44.1
SWS% 11.9 12.1
The gap has been about BABIP and HR/FB, and it has also been mostly about Fenway, the park rating #4 for highest BABIP across MLB this season. With pennant pressure on Price has picked his game up to a 4-0/1.59 tune over his last four starts, and the friendly confines of Oakland at night should call for that form to continue.
Ball St vs. Georgia St
Play: Under 52?
The Georgia State Panthers offense was all about quarterback Nick Arbuckle the last couple years. Arbuckle threw for more than 7,600 yards in the past two years. This Georgia State team went from 0-12 in 2013 to 6-7 and a bowl berth last year. Arbuckle had a lot to do with that, and he will be missed.
Georgia State has no one experienced at quarterback ready to step in, and they also have almost no running game. The Panthers offense is going to have to find its way this year, and I think that will take some time. While Georgia State was 47th in tempo last year, I expect a slower pace to start the year with a new signal caller.
Georgia State's defense was much improved last year, and that was the other big reason for their overall improvement as a team. The Panthers have a defensive-minded coach in Trent Miles. Georgia State allowed 43.4 points per game two years and only 28.3 per game last year. This defense returns nine guys and is a senior-laden group. Look for further improvement here.
Ball State returned 10 guys on offense last year and still only managed 23.3 points per game. These two teams played last year at Ball State and the Cardinals only managed 19 points in a loss. Ball State returns 6 guys on offense last year, and like Georgia State I think they need to find an identity. It should take some time.
Defensively, Ball State returns nine starters from last year and star Darnell Smith who missed all of last year with an injury is back as well.
I see a sloppy low scoring game. Take the under.
Kansas State (+15.5) over Stanford
If I have said it once I have said it a thousand times: Bill Snyder is a national treasure! He is one of the greatest coaches in college football history. And the hallmark of Snyder teams is his ability to cash as an underdog. Snyder has gone 20-6 ATS the last 26 times he has been catching points, and he has 10 outright upsets in those games. I don't think the Wildcats have the goods to steal a win from Stanford, but I will be really surprised if this one is a blowout. Stanford is replacing a four-year starter at quarterback in Kevin Hogan and installing a redshirt junior at QB (Ryan Burns) that has exactly one college pass attempt on his resume. In fact, David Shaw has said that he will play both of his quarterbacks (Keller Chryst is the other) in this game, which could really hurt Stanford's offensive flow. Frankly, I think that the Cardinal are way overrated at No. 8 in the country right now. They are a big, powerful team. But they play the same smash-mouth style that K-State favors, and I don't see the Wildcats getting plowed over. Kansas State took on four Top 10 teams last year and played three of them (Oklahoma State, TCU and Baylor) within a touchdown apiece (3-0 ATS). Stanford has been one of the best bets in college football the last six years, going 38-18 ATS at home and 49-24 ATS in their last 73 games overall. But that's made them a bit overvalued. I think Stanford will do enough to win here. But I see a vintage Snyder we-can't-seem-to-shake-these-guys game and a 33-24 win for the home team - but cover for us.
Kansas State (+15.5) over Stanford
If I have said it once I have said it a thousand times: Bill Snyder is a national treasure! He is one of the greatest coaches in college football history. And the hallmark of Snyder teams is his ability to cash as an underdog. Snyder has gone 20-6 ATS the last 26 times he has been catching points, and he has 10 outright upsets in those games. I don't think the Wildcats have the goods to steal a win from Stanford, but I will be really surprised if this one is a blowout. Stanford is replacing a four-year starter at quarterback in Kevin Hogan and installing a redshirt junior at QB (Ryan Burns) that has exactly one college pass attempt on his resume. In fact, David Shaw has said that he will play both of his quarterbacks (Keller Chryst is the other) in this game, which could really hurt Stanford's offensive flow. Frankly, I think that the Cardinal are way overrated at No. 8 in the country right now. They are a big, powerful team. But they play the same smash-mouth style that K-State favors, and I don't see the Wildcats getting plowed over. Kansas State took on four Top 10 teams last year and played three of them (Oklahoma State, TCU and Baylor) within a touchdown apiece (3-0 ATS). Stanford has been one of the best bets in college football the last six years, going 38-18 ATS at home and 49-24 ATS in their last 73 games overall. But that's made them a bit overvalued. I think Stanford will do enough to win here. But I see a vintage Snyder we-can't-seem-to-shake-these-guys game and a 33-24 win for the home team - but cover for us.
Coaches Love Shutouts (go ahead and laminate it now)?If you ignored NFL Pre-Season Week #4 completely it might make you a better person (and if you had Seattle/Oakland Under, I feel your pain)?The Price is Right on the mound, and at the Betting Windows, in Oakland tonight?
Thursday brought the kind of optimism that comes with the opening of most sports, but College Football in particular, along with the cold shiver of pessimism that comes when it is time to chart the NFL preseason Week #4 results. Of course one of the antidotes for that can be to not chart those results at all, which I will get to in a moment. But first the NCAA comes front and center.
Item: Coaches Love Shutouts (a primary for NCAA Halftime betting)
It didn?t take long for one of the prime mantras of the College Football game-day threads to come into play this season ? when Louisville/Charlotte went to halftime, the Cardinals in command 56-0, a reader was quick to bring up whether it was time to get in play with a prized notion ? ?Coaches Love Shutouts?.
In this case the answer was no, a combination of Bobby Petrino not being a defense-first guy, and also the fact that the oddsmakers had set the Second Half Total in that one rather short, a 20.5 in the key precincts that got played up to 21. Not necessarily what we would have wished to so, and certainly not a "go", as noted in the thread.
As the season begins it is time to go to the fundamentals of the concept itself, because it is an important one, and it also allows for the best way to start another round of autumn Saturday?s, some reminiscences of Old Joe (there will be more to come about him next week, with watching the South Carolina offense struggle last night also leading to some memories). Coaches do indeed love shutouts, especially as they become increasingly rare in the modern age. Naturally players love them - not just the defense, but the offense as well, as a sense of ?team? gets built into the scoreboard in the second half. The obvious role of the defense is to not allow any points, but for the coaching staff and the offense it also means not doing anything to impair the defense, turning the focus to clock management and avoiding turnovers.
What this combines to produce are settings in which Second Half Under tickets come to the forefront, and it is amazing over time how much that ?Power of Zero? is in play. The difference in attitude between a team up 27-0, vs. 27-3, at the half is mot pronounced, and the savvy handicapper should be on the lookout to take advantage. It isn?t just about cashing the tickets, but also understanding the concept ? there are many times that you would switch the television away from a game that is 42-0 in the fourth quarter, especially on these modern Saturdays in which just about every lined game is available for viewing. But take the time to stay with a few of them, and watch the energy that remains on the sidelines of the team with the lead as long as there is still a shutout on the board.
Since I am going to cause unintended damage to some of you by bringing up last night?s Seattle/Oakland ending in a minute, I can also share one of my Halftime ?Hall of Fame? Bad Beats, because it came out of this concept.
Mark Dantonio and Michigan State fell almost perfectly into the scenario in a game at Central Michigan in September of 2012, building a 24-0 halftime lead against an opponent they could command, and with no second half focus on anything other than grinding, since the Spartans hosted Notre Dame the following week. As such, plenty of Under 23 went into pocket. Ultimately the ticket was shredded, and in this instance it was about Dantonio wanting the shutout so much that a strategy back-fired.
You will note that the only points in Central Michigan?s 41-7 defeat came on a 55-yard interception return with 1:39 remaining in the game, a harrowing way for a bet to lose. Why on earth did Dantonio have Connor Cook (then the back-up QB) throwing the ball that late? Because it was a third down play, and the way the clock was set, a first down would have meant a couple of kneel downs to close it out. Dantonio had his team going to clinch the shutout at that moment by keeping the ball, rather than punting away for a final CMU drive. That one stung.
The issue going forward is that the markets are catching on to the phenomenon, which is why I am not letting a secret out by detailing it here ? last night?s Louisville game was a prime example, but there is no better place to look than Nick Saban.
Saban?s teams annually put together some of the best defensive statistics in all of college football, and that is indeed a tribute to talent and coaching. But often unnoticed in that is also how much is game management, which will be a future topic here as we discuss the impact of pace on various statistical metrics. Absolutely no one in the nation shuts a game down in the fourth quarter better with a big lead than Saban, and for several years Old Joe and I had a major run with Second Half Under tickets when the Crimson Tide had a game in hand, regardless of whether it was a shutout or not (they do have 15 of those under Saban). Alas that run suffered the fate of many edges over time ? it gets to be known; too many in the marketplace line up for it; and the oddsmakers react accordingly.
Will ?Coaches Love Shutouts? work again in 2016? I would certainly hope so, leaving that plaque on the desk rather than having to relegate it to the legacy drawer. But even if the margins get narrower in the betting markets, understanding the concept will help you greatly in your weekly post-mortem charting of the results.
Item: If you choose to skip NFL Pre-Season Week #4 completely you are not wrong
You will note that Thursday?s NFL close-out to the Pre-Season did not merit any feature space in PB this week, and perhaps it never will. There is such a lack of integrity in the outcomes, and even the ?good? information was not of much use this week.
--CLEVELAND was a topic of discussions in the threads when Hue Jackson announced that his starters were going to see some action, which drove the line from -3 to -6. Those that laid -3 made a sound move, since it did allow some buyback at kickoff. But the savvy positioning was to have more on the -3 than the +6, and the savvy stake was a financial loser. The Browns did lead 7-3 in the second quarter; after the starters left it turned into a 21-7 Bears victory.
--NEW ENGLAND drew money when it was made known that Tom Brady would play, and Brady indeed did, going the entire first half. But the Patriots only scored six points under his direction. Someone that played NE for the First Half only would have cashed a ticket if they got there in time (it became a painted -3, a rare instance in which the First Half line was higher than the Full Game), but the full 60 minutes backers lost.
--NEW ORLEANS also drew money against Baltimore when Sean Payton decided to play Drew Brees and most of the starters for a while, and the Saints did manage of couple of field goals in the first quarter to go up 6-0. But by halftime they trailed 16-6, and lost the game 23-14.
And so much for having good info. But how about if you had Seattle/Oakland Under, a game in which neither side showed any interest at all, outside of Russell Wilson surprisingly playing the first series for the Seahawks. It was 2-0 Raiders at halftime and 5-3 Raiders after three quarters, and if you went to bed believing you had a winner it was the proper thing to do ? sleep is more important than watching the clock tick in the 4th quarter of a dead pre-season affair. The final of 23-21 Seattle would have shocked you this morning, of course, with both interception returns and kickoff returns for TDs in the final stanza, and three TDs being scored over the final 2:17.
Should you decide to simply ignore the Week #4 board in the future, and put your focus on getting up to speed on the NCAA teams, it may be time better served.
